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Hace 1 hora
Evolucion del dolar contra el euro
1. SECCION:materias primas en linea:precios
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METALES A 30 DIAS click sobre la imagen
(click sur l´image)
3. PRIX DU CUIVRE
Cobre a 30 d
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6. precio zinc
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7. prix du plomb
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8. nickel price
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azucar
mercados,materias primas,azucar,precios y graficos azucar i otros
24 jun 2011
ADIOS a CHINAMERICA ... PLAN QUINQUENAL
Ciclos de Kondratieff y Economia Peruana
Para ayudarlos nueva figura. El arear sombreada les indica el incio de la fase depresiva del ciclo de Kondratieffa
de.html
http://bseminario.blogspot.com/2011/06/la-economia-peruana-y-los-ciclos-de.html
La coherencia con similar periodo de depresion en el Pe´ru es bastante elevada.
AFPs chilenas dueñas de 24% de La Polar
Escándalo financiero en La Polar golpea a la Bolsa y AFP ven pasos legales
Retailer sorprendió ayer al anunciar que arriesga hasta US$ 430 millones por prácticas no autorizadas por el directorio en sus créditos a clientes.
por K. Ferrando y H. Cárcamo
La Polar rememoró ayer la crisis que en 1999, con otros dueños, la llevó a una quiebra de la que salió lenta y trabajosamente. El retailer perdió en un día casi la mitad de su valor bursátil, un 42%, y arrastró al Ipsa a una caída diaria de 1,18%, tras divulgar al mercado que sus provisiones -créditos con riesgo de incobrabilidad- podrían ser superiores en casi 10 veces a las realizadas en 2010. El año pasado sumaron $ 22 mil millones. Una estimación inicial del nuevo riesgo financiero fue situado por la firma entre $ 150 mil millones (US$ 321 millones) y $ 200 mil millones (US$ 428 millones).El directorio de La Polar se reunió lunes y miércoles para analizar el tema. Ayer dieron a conocer que en esas sesiones se informó de "prácticas" en la gestión de su cartera de crédito -vinculadas a la renegociación de deudas de tenedores de tarjetas- no autorizadas por el directorio.
La empresa no detalló cuáles fueron esas prácticas, pero en la industria creen que aluden a repactaciones unilaterales de créditos morosos, lo que originó una demanda colectiva presentada la semana pasada por el Sernac. "Eso permite contabilizar deudores morosos como vigentes", dice un agente del mercado.
La Polar afirmó que los hechos divulgados ayer no afectan "su modelo de negocio". Además, adoptó una serie de medidas que fueron comunicadas a diferentes agentes del mercado. Entre ellas está el nombramiento de Eduardo Bizama como nuevo gerente general, en reemplazo de Martín González, quien vuelve a la gerencia comercial, y el despido del gerente de productos financieros, Julián Moreno. En su lugar asumirá Hernán Arancibia como gerente de crédito, hoy gerente de la división riesgo crédito del Banco de Chile. La firma designó a Ernst & Young como auditor externo en reemplazo de PwC.
La alerta del caso llegó a la Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros (SVS) el viernes 3 de junio, cuando accionistas representados por el estudio Gutiérrez y Silva ingresaron una consulta sobre los balances de La Polar. La SVS dio cinco días de plazo a La Polar para informar y el miércoles les ordenó hacerlo ayer.
Los accionistas
En las AFP la molestia era generalizada. Las gestoras poseen el 24% de una firma que no tiene controlador, lo que para algunos podría explicar el problema (ver página 34). La inversión, sin embargo, representa sólo el 0,2% de los activos del sistema. Habitat, Cuprum, Provida y Capital estudiarán acciones legales. Habitat acusó que lo ocurrido impacta la fe pública depositada en la empresa, dado que los estados financieros deberían ser confiables. Provida declaró su indignación y Cuprum dijo que seguirá acciones administrativas y judiciales para resguardar el interés de los afiliados. "Estas acciones pueden comprender a directores, administradores, auditores externos, clasificadores de riesgo", advirtió la AFP del grupo Penta.
Las AFP buscarán desde hoy coordinarse entre ellas y con otros socios de la firma para, entre otras cosas, solicitar una junta extraordinaria de accionistas y pedir las actas de directorio de La Polar, ente que preside Pablo Alcalde desde 2009. Existe, además, un comité de directores, formado por tres miembros de la mesa, que debe velar para que los balances reflejen la realidad financiera de las empresas. Y que supervisa el trabajo de la auditora externa -Price Waterhouse revisó los balances de La Polar en 2010- sobre la que están puestas todas las miradas por el recuerdo del caso Enron.
Perú: trescientos años del Modelo Primario Exportador
Necesitas las fechas de las Ondas largas de Kondratieff para entender la figura. Lo que lista el NBER son ciclos de Juglar o Kitchin.
http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html
Perú: trescientos años del Modelo Primario Exportador
un gráfico que les resume los ultimos 300 años de la historia económica del Per{u
Por Que se Viene Colapso de Burbuja en Mercados Emergentes
Factores de la burbuja en los mercados emergentes han sido la expansion economica mundial y exceso de oferta de capitales y liquidez, altos precios de los commodities y dolar debil.
Colapso vendra por menores flujos de capitales de inversion del primer mundo, crack en precios de los commodities y dolar fuerte.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/274131-why-an-emerging-market-bubble-may-be-on-the-horizon
Why an Emerging Market Bubble May Be on the Horizon
by: Steven M. Rogé June 9, 2011
In recent years, emerging markets have attracted significant attention and capital, neither of which was undeserved. First, they gained attention because they provided unique investment opportunities in developing countries with tremendous growth potential, unlike "stodgy" options such as the United States and the United Kingdom. Second, with the advent and popularization of ETFs, investing in emerging markets was easier than it ever had been before, and large amounts of capital shifted to take advantage of these opportunities. However, we believe a reality check may be in order, and in the next few minutes we will walk you through our current thesis on emerging markets; but first, a capital markets refresher.
While we cannot predict returns or what will unfold in the near-term, we hold fast to two core beliefs that dictate our investment thesis:
1. Capital markets theory dictates that whenever there is arbitrage (or, in general, above-average investment opportunities) funds will flow toward this opportunity in order to make a profit, and
2. Since capital markets cannot predict values perfectly, history has shown many times that too much money will flow toward the opportunity until it is overvalued, creating an unsustainable bubble.
We have seen this pattern repeated time and time again. Within the past dozen years we have separately seen both technology companies and real estate become the "hot" sectors, only to become overvalued and subsequently crash. While each sector proved to be a good investment opportunity at the outset and attracted large amounts of capital (Belief 1), too much money flowed to these opportunities, creating a bubble (Belief 2). Based on the underlying tenets of capital market theory and what we have witnessed throughout history, we believe that there is another bubble lurking about on the verge of popping.
We see a bubble in emerging market equities. While we believe that the growth in emerging market investing was justified due to economic expansion opportunities and capital flow, higher commodity prices, and a weaker dollar, these once-promising markets may soon face headwinds from all three factors.
In explaining our case, we will provide evidence from our three key factors, which encouraged the historical growth and investment opportunities of emerging markets, but which now may lead to a collapse. It is also important to recognize that these three factors will not bring down the entire country, or even the bond markets; we are strictly focused on the collapse of emerging market equities.
The Case for Growth
Opportunities for economic expansion by emerging market countries is a great investment thesis—the United States, though not an emerging market, created unsurpassed wealth for its citizens during an incredibly long period of economic expansion from the 1940s through 2000, despite bumps along the road. After seeing the wealth that the US created, many investors would jump at the chance to get in on the ground floor of an emerging market in hopes that similar economic expansion and wealth creation could be realized.
Relative to our two other factors, economic expansion of emerging market countries has unfolded over a much longer time horizon, most notably over the past few decades. Both technology advances and the spread of capitalism have encouraged this growth through the sharing of ideas and technologies and increasing import/export markets. Technology in particular has made it cheaper and easier to start businesses across the globe, and small businesses often provide the backbone for many countries' economies. Needless to say, as businesses and investment opportunities pop up and investors can communicate quickly across the globe, capital begins to migrate toward these investments.
In addition to general economic expansion, many emerging market countries have enjoyed strong growth because of their commodity-rich geography. Using the Dow Jones Emerging Market classifications, emerging markets include the oil-dependent countries such as United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman and mining countries such as Brazil, Peru and Argentina. Many of these emerging market countries are very dependent upon their global natural resource exports for continued economic growth, and thus are very sensitive to any price changes in the commodity. The oil countries have built up staggering wealth as both developed and emerging markets are voracious oil consumers and prices continue to be high.
While the dollar has bounced back and forth over the past few years relative to other global currencies, the underlying trend has been a weakening dollar with no fiscal or monetary policies to support a strengthening of the dollar. This is especially apparent with the Fed's QE2 program, which essentially is just creating dollars out of thin air, further depressing the value of each dollar. The flipside to a declining dollar is that other currencies strengthen against the dollar, thus, returns on international investments can be even higher when converted back into dollars because the foreign currency is now stronger. Also, many global commodities (oil for example) are priced in the global marketplace in US currency, so as the dollar declines, oil prices increase, further helping those oil-rich emerging markets.
Needless to say, the opportunities for economic expansion of commodity-rich countries, compounded by a weakening dollar, has propelled many emerging markets to valuation levels that may no longer make sense as these three factors turn around.
The Case for Collapse
While emerging markets will still grow in the long-term, the world is still feeling the aftershocks of the recent financial crisis, decreasing growth and investment opportunities. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis and typhoons have left part of the world just trying to recover, let alone grow. The United States specifically, as one of the largest exporters of capital, still requires rock-bottom interest rates and dollar-printing machines to keep capital flowing
As investors chase these foreign opportunities, it is possible that some emerging markets have become overvalued relative to mature markets. For example, consider the current value of the iShares MSCI EAFE Index ETF (EFA) relative to its emerging market counterpart, the iShares MSCI Emerging Market Index (EEM). EFA holds securities from countries such as the UK, Japan, Germany and France; only ten countries make up nearly 90% of the index, with a combined GDP of nearly $20 trillion. Similarly, the EEM fund invests approximately 90% of its assets in ten countries such as China, Brazil, Taiwan and Russia, with a combined GDP of only $12.5 trillion. However, both funds each have roughly $40 billion under management, implying that investors are overweighting emerging markets significantly relative to mature markets.
Anther piece of evidence pointing to an overflow of capital to the emerging markets is the fact that the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index ETF (VWO) was the most popular index fund in the United States in 2010, attracting more than $19 billion in capital, making the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) a distant second as it pulled in less than $6 billion . In an even more disparate comparison than the iShares example above, VWO manages over $65 billion to invest in emerging markets, while Vanguard's EAFE ETF (VEA) manages less than $9 billion.
While previously we discussed how natural resources helped the emerging markets prosper, a downturn in commodity prices can equally harm these markets. This wouldn't be so alarming if commodity prices were not so high right now, but unfortunately they now have a long way to fall if the tide turns. One of the biggest commodities most investors watch is oil, which is currently hovering around $100. Nearly all investors remember the time when oil spiked a few years ago to over $140, only to come crashing down to the $30s. Similarly, oil reached an inflation-adjusted average of above $100 in 1980 , and fell below $30 (inflation-adjusted) within 6 years.
The sharp rise in oil prices, especially relative to the anemic global economic growth, should be cause for concern. Since bottoming out in 2009, oil is up more than 150%, which is obviously unsustainable. Many other commodities important to emerging markets have increased extraordinarily as well, and when we hear reports than speculators artificially add $10 or more to a barrel of oil, we can assume the same is happening with other commodities. Simply removing the speculators and letting supply/demand take its course may bring commodities down to more reasonable levels, thus dampening returns for many emerging markets.
Finally, commodities should decrease against the strengthening of the US Dollar. As we discussed before, commodities priced in USD benefit as the dollar falls; however, they can just as easily be harmed by a strong dollar. Compounding this effect, a strong US Dollar would decrease returns made on foreign investments, thus making foreign markets (both developed and emerging) less attractive than domestic investments. While we have yet to see any direct information on how the government plans to support the dollar, we may see an effect from the completion of the QE2 program. By slowing the flow of dollars, we hope to see a stronger dollar emerge.
While a strong dollar would hurt all foreign investments, the double-whammy of weaker commodity prices and a stronger dollar would most likely hurt the emerging markets worse due to their relative lack of currency strength. If these events begin to unfold, investors who have piled right into emerging market funds in staggering numbers may just as quickly head for the exits. Emerging market funds have certainly enjoyed an admirable run, but it may be time to think about rebalancing your portfolio to underweight these markets— that way, when things do go wrong, you will be among the few who avoid hearing the sound of a bubble popping in your portfolio.
Colapso vendra por menores flujos de capitales de inversion del primer mundo, crack en precios de los commodities y dolar fuerte.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/274131-why-an-emerging-market-bubble-may-be-on-the-horizon
Why an Emerging Market Bubble May Be on the Horizon
by: Steven M. Rogé June 9, 2011
In recent years, emerging markets have attracted significant attention and capital, neither of which was undeserved. First, they gained attention because they provided unique investment opportunities in developing countries with tremendous growth potential, unlike "stodgy" options such as the United States and the United Kingdom. Second, with the advent and popularization of ETFs, investing in emerging markets was easier than it ever had been before, and large amounts of capital shifted to take advantage of these opportunities. However, we believe a reality check may be in order, and in the next few minutes we will walk you through our current thesis on emerging markets; but first, a capital markets refresher.
While we cannot predict returns or what will unfold in the near-term, we hold fast to two core beliefs that dictate our investment thesis:
1. Capital markets theory dictates that whenever there is arbitrage (or, in general, above-average investment opportunities) funds will flow toward this opportunity in order to make a profit, and
2. Since capital markets cannot predict values perfectly, history has shown many times that too much money will flow toward the opportunity until it is overvalued, creating an unsustainable bubble.
We have seen this pattern repeated time and time again. Within the past dozen years we have separately seen both technology companies and real estate become the "hot" sectors, only to become overvalued and subsequently crash. While each sector proved to be a good investment opportunity at the outset and attracted large amounts of capital (Belief 1), too much money flowed to these opportunities, creating a bubble (Belief 2). Based on the underlying tenets of capital market theory and what we have witnessed throughout history, we believe that there is another bubble lurking about on the verge of popping.
We see a bubble in emerging market equities. While we believe that the growth in emerging market investing was justified due to economic expansion opportunities and capital flow, higher commodity prices, and a weaker dollar, these once-promising markets may soon face headwinds from all three factors.
In explaining our case, we will provide evidence from our three key factors, which encouraged the historical growth and investment opportunities of emerging markets, but which now may lead to a collapse. It is also important to recognize that these three factors will not bring down the entire country, or even the bond markets; we are strictly focused on the collapse of emerging market equities.
The Case for Growth
Opportunities for economic expansion by emerging market countries is a great investment thesis—the United States, though not an emerging market, created unsurpassed wealth for its citizens during an incredibly long period of economic expansion from the 1940s through 2000, despite bumps along the road. After seeing the wealth that the US created, many investors would jump at the chance to get in on the ground floor of an emerging market in hopes that similar economic expansion and wealth creation could be realized.
Relative to our two other factors, economic expansion of emerging market countries has unfolded over a much longer time horizon, most notably over the past few decades. Both technology advances and the spread of capitalism have encouraged this growth through the sharing of ideas and technologies and increasing import/export markets. Technology in particular has made it cheaper and easier to start businesses across the globe, and small businesses often provide the backbone for many countries' economies. Needless to say, as businesses and investment opportunities pop up and investors can communicate quickly across the globe, capital begins to migrate toward these investments.
In addition to general economic expansion, many emerging market countries have enjoyed strong growth because of their commodity-rich geography. Using the Dow Jones Emerging Market classifications, emerging markets include the oil-dependent countries such as United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman and mining countries such as Brazil, Peru and Argentina. Many of these emerging market countries are very dependent upon their global natural resource exports for continued economic growth, and thus are very sensitive to any price changes in the commodity. The oil countries have built up staggering wealth as both developed and emerging markets are voracious oil consumers and prices continue to be high.
While the dollar has bounced back and forth over the past few years relative to other global currencies, the underlying trend has been a weakening dollar with no fiscal or monetary policies to support a strengthening of the dollar. This is especially apparent with the Fed's QE2 program, which essentially is just creating dollars out of thin air, further depressing the value of each dollar. The flipside to a declining dollar is that other currencies strengthen against the dollar, thus, returns on international investments can be even higher when converted back into dollars because the foreign currency is now stronger. Also, many global commodities (oil for example) are priced in the global marketplace in US currency, so as the dollar declines, oil prices increase, further helping those oil-rich emerging markets.
Needless to say, the opportunities for economic expansion of commodity-rich countries, compounded by a weakening dollar, has propelled many emerging markets to valuation levels that may no longer make sense as these three factors turn around.
The Case for Collapse
While emerging markets will still grow in the long-term, the world is still feeling the aftershocks of the recent financial crisis, decreasing growth and investment opportunities. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis and typhoons have left part of the world just trying to recover, let alone grow. The United States specifically, as one of the largest exporters of capital, still requires rock-bottom interest rates and dollar-printing machines to keep capital flowing
As investors chase these foreign opportunities, it is possible that some emerging markets have become overvalued relative to mature markets. For example, consider the current value of the iShares MSCI EAFE Index ETF (EFA) relative to its emerging market counterpart, the iShares MSCI Emerging Market Index (EEM). EFA holds securities from countries such as the UK, Japan, Germany and France; only ten countries make up nearly 90% of the index, with a combined GDP of nearly $20 trillion. Similarly, the EEM fund invests approximately 90% of its assets in ten countries such as China, Brazil, Taiwan and Russia, with a combined GDP of only $12.5 trillion. However, both funds each have roughly $40 billion under management, implying that investors are overweighting emerging markets significantly relative to mature markets.
Anther piece of evidence pointing to an overflow of capital to the emerging markets is the fact that the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index ETF (VWO) was the most popular index fund in the United States in 2010, attracting more than $19 billion in capital, making the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) a distant second as it pulled in less than $6 billion . In an even more disparate comparison than the iShares example above, VWO manages over $65 billion to invest in emerging markets, while Vanguard's EAFE ETF (VEA) manages less than $9 billion.
While previously we discussed how natural resources helped the emerging markets prosper, a downturn in commodity prices can equally harm these markets. This wouldn't be so alarming if commodity prices were not so high right now, but unfortunately they now have a long way to fall if the tide turns. One of the biggest commodities most investors watch is oil, which is currently hovering around $100. Nearly all investors remember the time when oil spiked a few years ago to over $140, only to come crashing down to the $30s. Similarly, oil reached an inflation-adjusted average of above $100 in 1980 , and fell below $30 (inflation-adjusted) within 6 years.
The sharp rise in oil prices, especially relative to the anemic global economic growth, should be cause for concern. Since bottoming out in 2009, oil is up more than 150%, which is obviously unsustainable. Many other commodities important to emerging markets have increased extraordinarily as well, and when we hear reports than speculators artificially add $10 or more to a barrel of oil, we can assume the same is happening with other commodities. Simply removing the speculators and letting supply/demand take its course may bring commodities down to more reasonable levels, thus dampening returns for many emerging markets.
Finally, commodities should decrease against the strengthening of the US Dollar. As we discussed before, commodities priced in USD benefit as the dollar falls; however, they can just as easily be harmed by a strong dollar. Compounding this effect, a strong US Dollar would decrease returns made on foreign investments, thus making foreign markets (both developed and emerging) less attractive than domestic investments. While we have yet to see any direct information on how the government plans to support the dollar, we may see an effect from the completion of the QE2 program. By slowing the flow of dollars, we hope to see a stronger dollar emerge.
While a strong dollar would hurt all foreign investments, the double-whammy of weaker commodity prices and a stronger dollar would most likely hurt the emerging markets worse due to their relative lack of currency strength. If these events begin to unfold, investors who have piled right into emerging market funds in staggering numbers may just as quickly head for the exits. Emerging market funds have certainly enjoyed an admirable run, but it may be time to think about rebalancing your portfolio to underweight these markets— that way, when things do go wrong, you will be among the few who avoid hearing the sound of a bubble popping in your portfolio.
__._,_.___
21 jun 2011
Bernanke: jugar con límite de deuda EEUU podría terminar mal
Jefe Fed: jugar con límite de deuda EEUU podría terminar mal
martes 14 de junio de 2011 14:51 GYT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - El presidente de la Reserva Federal, Ben Bernanke, advirtió el martes que si no se sube el techo de la deuda de Estados Unidos de 14,3 billones de dólares se corre el riesgo de una pérdida de confianza en la solvencia crediticia del país que podría ser desastrosa.
Bernanke dijo que ante la ausencia de una rápida resolución en la batalla sobre el límite de deuda, Estados Unidos podría perder su preciada calificación crediticia "AAA", mientras que el especial estatus del dólar como moneda de reserva podría dañarse.
"Incluso una corta suspensión de pagos de capital o intereses en las obligaciones de deuda del Tesoro podría causar severos trastornos en los mercados financieros y en el sistema de pagos", dijo Bernanke en comentarios preparados para un evento auspiciado por el Comité para un Presupuesto Federal Responsable.
La falta de acción podría también "crear dudas fundamentales sobre la solvencia crediticia de Estados Unidos, y perjudicar el rol especial del dólar y de los bonos del Tesoro en los mercados globales en el largo plazo", agregó Bernanke.
_,_._,___
What are the social implications of economic collapse?
What are the social implications of economic collapse?
by Simon Black · View CommentsNew York City
For the last few days, we've been having an important discussion about the magnitude of the economic challenges in the west; if you didn't read yesterday's letter, I really encourage you to do so before proceeding because it's important to understand why the west has truly passed the point of no return.
Simply put, the United States and much of Europe are borrowing an extraordinary amount of money now just to pay interest on the money they've already borrowed. They cannot even self-fund their mandatory entitlement programs without going into the hole, and their options are limited:
Option 1: Continue borrowing, keep the party going.
As long as the government CAN do this, they WILL do this. Regardless of their intentions, though, more debt only worsens the situation, creating higher borrowing costs in the long run, and even more debt. As this happens, the pool of buyers begins to dry up, especially from overseas.
Option 2: Inflation
The more buyers stop purchasing Treasury securities, the more the Federal Reserve will mop up the excess liquidity. In doing so, the Fed essentially conjures up money and loans it to the government.
No matter what the government monkey statistics say, this is inflationary, plain and simple. The more money they print, the greater the level of inflation in the long-term. Meanwhile, as foreigners simultaneously reduce their US dollar holdings, this inflation will become more acutely felt in the US.
Option 3: Austerity
There's going to come a time when the US government is forced to face its economic reality and make some incredibly deep cuts that would be felt across society, from Wall Street and the military industrial complex to project housing on the other side of the tracks.
Option 4: Default
Eventually, the debt burden is simply going to be too much, and the most obvious solution will be to default. Politicians will make China out to be the enemy and they will probably invent a war just to have an excuse to default on Chinese owned debt. Americans will wave the flag and celebrate defaulting on their enemies.
Option 5: Economic Cannibalism
In the best traditions of Atlas Shrugged, the government will continue its persecution of the productive class– professionals, investors, entrepreneurs, and skilled workers. Existing taxes will rise, new taxes will be created, trade barriers will be enacted, and a maze of cost prohibitive regulations will be passed.
The first option (keeping the party going) is what has been happening for years. Politicians make small concessions to show they're "serious" about fiscal discipline, cutting laughably small programs while dumping hundreds of billions of dollars into wars and entitlement programs.
The worse the debt situation becomes, though, the higher the borrowing costs become, and the worse the debt situation becomes. It's not an enviable position. Existing lenders will continue backing away from the US Treasury market, giving option 1 a half-life measured in months at best.
In the longer term, only options 2-5 remain: inflation, austerity, default, and cannibalism. Each of these remaining options will shake the financial system to its core. More importantly, each of these has the power to create widespread social upheaval.
When inflation eats away at a family's already meager standard of living, when austerity eliminates the benefits to which recipients have grown accustomed, when default vanquishes a retiree's savings, when high taxes make workers feel like they're just government serfs– this is when the real turmoil will begin:
* Rising crime: devoid of a job or means to support their families, people will turn to crime out of desperation
* Class warfare: with dividing lines drawn between have's vs. have-not's, it will become unpopular and even dangerous to be successful
* Corruption: low-level public service officials will look to supplement their income through bribery and kickbacks
* Black economy: An underground, cash-only (probably gold or foreign currency) economy will emerge with people getting paid in envelopes
* Censorship: Of course they'll blame it on national security, but the idea will be to prevent public disparaging of government policy
* War: The government will need another major event to distract people from the real problems
* Protests/Riots: This is when things turn bloody
* Police state conditions: The government will close ranks and send the cops out to show all the little people who's really in charge
There are a number of other manifestations, and many are already showing signs of emergence. The US and European police states are alive and well. Crime is on the rise.
In Europe, cops are doing battle in the streets with their citizens. Think it can't happen in the US? Remember tanks in the streets during the LA riots? Remember New Orleans? Remember any number of G8/G20 protests?
Here's the bottom line: all you have to do is glance at the headlines to see what happens when you strip people of their livelihood, of their ability to put food on the table for their families.
The US has been able to kick the can down the road with the most blunt social implications simply because the country benefits so much from a US-oriented financial system. This is coming to an end very, very quickly.
As a rule of thumb, the greater the economic distortion, the harder the collapse. The US economy has been in a fantasy world for so long, and when its dominant primacy is yanked away, the collapse will be at freefall speed.
Listen… I'm not talking about the end of the world here, I'm talking about difficult times ahead, and the things that go beyond economics. It's time to face facts and look at how society will change (and has already changed).
Tomorrow, I'd like to write more about what we can do now. Meanwhile, please tell me what you think about this– how do you see society changing from this reset of the financial system?
__._,_.___
TLC Peru_USA Datos expo-impo 2006-2011
AÑO EXP IMP SALDO
TOTAL 2006 2,926.8 5,880.4 -2,953.5
TOTAL 2007 4,119.8 5,271.6 -1,151.8
TOTAL 2008 6,183.0 5,812.5 370.5
TOTAL 2009 4,918.8 4,223.3 695.5
TOTAL 2010 6,754.3 5,056.9 1,697.3
TOTAL 2011 2,602.1 2,106.6 495.5
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c3330.html
Efecto TLC Aumento de comercio USA-Perú y paso de superavit peruano en el 2006 de 2,953.5 millones dolares a un creciente deficit, en el 2010 fue de 1697 millones.
Qué nos dirán los que argumentaron que el TLC favorecería las exportaciones peruanas a USA. Estas cayeron miéntras las importaciones aumentaron. Quien negocio, Mercedez Araoz ?
Los que cuestionaron el TLC fueron avasallados por decenas de especialistas que defendían los términos del acuerdo, todavía se puede descargar del Ministerio d Comercio Exterior los estudios que justificaron el trato. Nos vendieron la idea, incumplida del aumento de las exportaciones.
".. el TLC constituye una importante oportunidad para que el Perú expanda sustancialmente su comercio exterior con el fin de contribuir a mejorar la calidad de vida de los peruanos."
"A cambio de la importante ampliación de mercados externos que obtendrá, después de firmado el TLC, el Perú deberá asumir la reducción en la recaudación fiscal como consecuencia de la eliminación del cobro de aranceles a las importaciones procedentes de Estados Unidos."
"Se está buscando mejorar la competitividad de los agricultores brindando una plataforma de servicios que refuerce aspectos tecnológicos, sanitarios y de asistencia comercial, como parte de un Programa Nacional de Reconversión y Compensación Agraria. Complementariamente a dicho plan, se ha planteado otorgar subsidios específicos a los tres principales productos que pueden
ser afectados, algodón, maíz y trigo."
http://www.tlcperu-eeuu.gob.pe/index.php__._,_.___
The Catalysts Start to Catalyze
The Catalysts Start to Catalyze
by John Rubino on June 15, 2011But now the game seems to be ending. It's still not clear which bomb will go off first, but a bunch of fuses have gotten very short indeed. Here's a survey of old crises that are finally coming to a head:
California and IllinoisThese two U.S. states are bankrupt by any reasonable definition, but are somehow managing to pay most of their bills. Their political classes are dominated by public sector unions, so neither has tried the tough medicine of places like Wisconsin or New Jersey. Instead, they've used a combination of much higher taxes (Illinois) and accounting gimmicks as a means to much higher taxes (California) to delay the inevitable reckoning.
Both are reaping what they've sown. Illinois, after raising corporate and income taxes, now faces an exodus of businesses to more friendly climes like Indiana and Texas. The governor is doling out tax breaks to keep major employers, a practice that 1) sends those new taxes right back out the door and 2) leads every other company to demand the same treatment. Latest on the list is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the state's biggest financial institution. No end in sight but bankruptcy.
California desperately wants to raise taxes but can't get an increase through the legislature. Thanks to a recently passed referendum, lawmakers don't get paid unless they produce a budget, so they'll do so pretty soon. But without more tax revenues it will fill the gaping deficit with gimmicks like delayed payments. No one will be fooled. The only question now is whether there's room in Texas for all the California companies that will soon be leaving. Again, no end in sight but bankruptcy. Short munis and pretty much anything dependent on consumer spending, since the resulting public sector layoffs will devastate demand for cars and other luxuries.
The Middle East
As country after country blows up, the U.S. finds itself sucked into increasing numbers of "humanitarian" military operations that are, of course, really about protecting the flow of oil. It won't work. An oil crisis of some sort is coming. Buy energy stocks, from oil to clean tech, short everything else.
The U.S. budget
With America borrowing, in effect, its entire military budget from China, unemployment headed back to double digits even by Washington's fraudulent accounting, and neither party willing to really address the military/entitlements complex, the debt will keep piling up until it can't. The rating agencies are now, belatedly, threatening the US AAA rating, the loss of which would either drive interest rates back to their historical average of 5%-6% (sending interest costs out of control) or force the Fed to start buying all the bonds issued by Treasury (sending the money supply out of control). Result: imminent currency crisis. Buy gold and silver, short Treasuries.
Housing
After seeming to stabilize for a few months, housing is tanking again. Sales and prices are down, underwater mortgages are surging, home builder confidence is at new lows, and poor innocent Bank of America is stuck with trillions of bad paper that it's not accounting for. As home prices accelerate to the downside, look for huge bank write-downs, massive stock volatility, and maybe another bailout. Short anything in the financial sector.
Europe
Ah, the euro. Greece is imploding…riots in the street, the government is falling, and the Bundesbank and ECB can't agree on how to handle the coming default. This one is coming to a head very soon, to be followed by the other PIIGS countries — assuming there's still a Eurozone to try to save. Short the European banks with the most Greek paper, load up on precious metals.
Does it matter which blows up first?
Not any more. They're all so close that just their prospect is enough to send capital running for cover. It's a nasty year no matter what. But then comes the next stimulus plan, which complicates the whole "short the world" thesis. The markets have been consistently fooled by this kind of thing, and there's no reason to believe that QE3 won't ignite another rally in risk assets. So monitor those shorts and be ready to close them out when CNBC starts hinting at a big pending announcement from Bernanke or Geithner. Shift the proceeds into precious metals, which will absolutely rocket when the next wave of fake liquidity hits the market.
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mining tax
More mining tax, royalty hikes 'inevitable' – Control Risks
TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – More governments in Africa and elsewhere, especially newly elected ones, will likely look at raising mining taxes and royalties amid historically high commodity prices, Control Risks senior analyst for Africa Thomas Wilson said in an interview."I think it's inevitable. And it's always been like that, it's always followed the mineral cycle, he said on the sidelines of a MineAfrica seminar in Toronto."Governments look at commodity prices and say 'we should be getting more out of this'."The trend is also a product of the changes in governments, particularly when more democratic regimes replace what may have been "more autocratic" previous governments, he said."So they come in on a popular mandate where they have made the electorate promises to look at contracts that were signed in the past with other governments that were potentially, I suppose, less scrupulous when it came to negotiating with foreign investors."Mining companies and investors are increasingly edgy about potential changes in government policy in the regions where they operate, as nations seek ways to benefit more from record commodity prices.A trend towards resource nationalism around the world is probably the biggest risk facing mining companies, Xstrata CEO Mick Davis said in December.Last year, then-Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd proposed a 40% resources super profits tax, and although the country backed off the plan it has now released draft laws for a 30% tax on coal and iron ore miners.Also this week, reports emerged that the Tanzanian government is planning a windfall tax on the mining industry, sending shares in LSE-listed African Barrick Gold lower.And Mining companies operating in Peru also declined sharply on Monday after left-leaning Ollanta Humala, a military officer who had talked about making sure Peruvians benefit more from the country's mineral wealth, was elected President.Guinea, under new President Alpha Conde, has also said it will relook at the country's mining code, followed by a review of all existing mining contracts.Reviews of outdated laws and a push by governments to be more active in their resources sectors are not necessarily a bad thing, Wilson commented."But they must resist the temptation to turn reviews of laws and contracts into a purely revenue generating exercise."DEALS TO SURVIVEMining companies operating in higher-risk areas are also not helping themselves or their shareholders by squeezing all possible concessions out of governments when negotiating mining contracts and agreements, Webber Wentzel partner Nkikia Moshesh said at the same event.Agreements that seem skewed in the foreign investor's favour might look good on paper but run the risk of coming under fire from future governments and their voters, she commented.Regimes change, commodity prices rise, "and people end up saying 'we are not extracting enough value from this company'," Moshesh said."Mining projects are intended to be of a long term nature. You want to conclude agreements that are going to survive, and preferably will survive changes in government, changes in political thinking."ALMIGHTY STINKAfrican Barrick Gold, the biggest producer in Tanzania, and South Africa's AngloGold Ashanti both insisted this week that their tax positions in the country are protected by existing mineral development agreements, and could not be affected by a new windfall tax.But there few new mines coming onstream in Tanzania and there is relatively little exploration investment as well, commented Africa mining consultant with political risk consultancy Menas Associates Christopher Melville."If the government is serious about the windfall tax it can have no other targets than the producing mines operated by the big players," he said.Although the tax reports could just be "smoke and mirrors" related to internal party politics, it is also possible that the government is trying to use the threat of an imposed tax to persuade mining companies to renegotiate contracts voluntarily, Melville suggested."Trying to push it through...would cause an almighty stink with the majors given the stabilisation clauses in their development agreements."The government surely has no stomach for such a stink and may rather hope that unsettling announcements will be enough to encourage the companies to renegotiate voluntarily."Either way, this week's reports are clearly negative for investor interest in Tanzania, he said."The government cannot afford to kill the goose."Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter
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14 jun 2011
Fwd: Macroperu China: idea de moratoria de EEUU es "jugar con fuego" 18:41 El resultado de una
China: idea de moratoria de EEUU es "jugar con fuego"
18:41 El resultado de una medida de ese tipo contra nuestro país será muy serio, advirtió un funcionario chino.
SINGAPUR, jun 8 (Reuters) – Los legisladores republicanos de Estados Unidos están "jugando con fuego" al contemplar incluso un breve incumplimiento del pago de deuda para obligar a recortes más profundos en el gasto fiscal, dijo el miércoles un asesor del banco central chino.
La idea de una cesación de pagos técnica -en lo esencial, postergar pagos de intereses por pocos días- ha ganado el respaldo de un creciente número de republicanos, que lo ven como un precio que valdría la pena si con eso logran que la Casa Blanca acepte profundos recortes al gasto, reportó el martes Reuters.
Pero cualquier forma de "default" podría desestabilizar a la economía global y enturbiar las ya tensas relaciones con los grandes acreedores estadounidenses, como China, advirtieron funcionarios de Gobierno e inversionistas.
Li Daokui, asesor del Banco Popular de China, dijo que una cesación de pagos podría socavar al dólar y Pekín debía disuadir a Washington de no continuar con este curso de acción. "Creo que existe el riesgo de que la moratoria de deuda estadounidense pueda ocurrir", dijo Li a reporteros en el marco de un foro en Pekín. "El resultado será muy serio y realmente espero que paren de jugar con fuego", agregó.
China es el mayor acreedor externo de Estados Unidos, ya que poseía más de 1 billón de dólares en deuda del Tesoro a marzo, según datos estadounidenses, por lo que sus preocupaciones tienen un peso considerable en Washington. "Realmente estoy preocupado por los riesgos de una moratoria en el pago de la deuda estadounidense, lo que pienso podría llevar a una caída en el valor del dólar", agregó Li.
El Congreso de Estados Unidos ha sido reacio a aumentar el límite de gasto del Gobierno, mientras los legisladores discuten cómo controlar el déficit que se proyecta que alcance los 1.4 billones de dólares este año fiscal. El Departamento del Tesoro de Estados Unidos ha dicho que se quedará sin espacio para pedir préstamos el 2 de agosto.
Si Washington no puede pagar los intereses de su deuda, el Gobierno de Barack Obama ha advertido de consecuencias "catastróficas" que podrían llevar a la débil economía de regreso a la recesión.
"Esto tiene implicaciones nefastas para la economía en un momento en que los datos macro están debilitándose", dijo Ben Westmore, un economista de materias primas en el National Australia Bank. "Es simplemente una idea horrible", declaró.
Los mercados financieros han seguido de cerca el debate en Estados Unidos, pero estiman que es bajo el riesgo de una moratoria.
REUTERS – 08/06/11
18 may 2011
Los 13 paises que controlan el oro en el mundo
El Peru tiene 36 TM de oro como reservas.1540 millones de dolares. Venezuela 365 TM
The 13 Countries That Control the World's Gold
Even if 2011 has gotten off to a rough start for gold, everyone knows that the value of gold is at historic highs. What is interesting is that there is rarely a discussion about which countries actually have a lock on the world's gold. 24/7 Wall St has compiled a list of the top 13 nations which hold the bulk of the world's gold reserves and added in an outlook for 2011.After having peaked above $1,420 per ounce at the end of 2010, gold has recently traded under $1,330 per ounce and has basically put in 3-month lows. As part of its analysis 24/7 Wall St. looked at the trends of the world's top holders that may drive demand up or down ahead in 2011 after taking a look at the new data from the World Gold Council.
Many issues should be considered in gold investing including demand from the private sector for bars, coins and jewelry along with industrial use.
1) United States holds 8,133.5 tonnes.
What the U.S. holdings will be when the next report comes out in another 7 weeks or so is uncertain. There will have been more than $600 billion in new commitments for Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve in the last few months. The US debt ceiling has been an ongoing issue. The U.S. could always try unloading some gold to depress rising commodity prices rather than to increase the deficit, but unfortunately that would only last a few months. If it did sell some of the shiny gold metal, Uncle Sam would have to find huge amounts of gold later. Besides, it is arguable whether countries are any good at price intervention. The lackluster economic recovery may result in little change in the gold holdings of Uncle Sam in 2011.
2) Germany holds 3,401.8 tonnes.
Germany is the foundation of the European Union and the Euro. The Germans were sellers of gold for coins under the Central Bank Gold Agreements (The third Central Bank Gold Agreement currently in force covers the gold sales of the Eurosystem central banks, Sweden and Switzerland) from at least 2003 to 2008, but the sales were not enough to put a serious dent in its supply of gold. Under the current state of the E.U., it's hard to see Germany becoming a huge buyer of the shiny metal. A sale might cause investors to panic and cause the euro to collapse. Unlikely, but a theory. The funds to bail out troubled European countries, however, have to come from somewhere. If Germany does sell gold reserves then it seems unlikely to be substantial enough that its #2 position would be up for challenge.
3) Italy holds 2,451.8 tonnes.
Italy was in the Central Bank Gold Agreements . On the surface, it seems that the Italians are unlikely to sell off their gold reserves even if they are the least discussed nation among the PIIGS. Releasing gold might address some of Italy's budget gaps, but the country faces many serious economic problems. If we had to guess about reserves, we'd expect to see a slow or small drop but not enough to make much difference.
4) France holds 2,435.4 tonnes.
The French are the French and predicting what will happen with France's gold reserves is difficult at best. Someone has to bail out the PIIGS, and France is the second part of the foundation of the European Union and the Euro currency. France is part of the Central Bank Gold Agreement that had led to selling, but this was all before the major run-up in gold. The logic would seem to hold that more light selling would be expected.
5) China holds 1,054.1 tonnes… and probably now more.
China is adding to its gold reserves to the point that few question whether China's gold hoard will move higher. With more than 1.3 billion people and a fast-growing economy, it seems that the only thing that might impede gold buying is its own fight against inflation in 2011. Some 454 tonnes of gold was bought between 2003 and 2009. China probably added more than 200 tonnes during 2010 and "The World's Growth Engine" is likely to keep adding gold to assure the value of the yuan.
6) Switzerland holds 1,040.1 tonnes.
Imagining that the Swiss will buy more gold is hard after reports in recent years that it ran out of places to securely store it, even if those reports are debatable. Then add in that Switzerland sold many tonnes of reserves under the time of the Central Bank Gold Agreement from 2003 to 2008, long before the great gold rush came upon us. With a population of 7.6 million people, how much gold does the nation need ? Switzerland can still lighten its gold reserves and not be challenged over being one of the world's international banking center and as a benchmark currency.
7) Russia holds 784.1 tonnes… and more.
Russia is gobbling up gold as its economic power grows. The report from the World Gold Council showed that it had accumulated some 120 tonnes in just the first 10 months of 2010 after adding more than 100 tonnes in 2009 and close to 70 tonnes in 2007. More gold was purchased in November of 2010 after the data cut-off. The Russians also have huge oil and commodity reserves. Unless gold suddenly plummets to unexpected lows to the point where it has embarrassing losses, then it is easy to assume that Russia will keep increasing its gold reserves.
8 ) Japan holds 765.2 tonnes.
Japanese people are known for keeping cash under their mattresses, but maybe they also stash gold. Japan has an inflated currency and it may decide to unload some gold holdings to be more competitive economically. The risk is a rather simple one, and that is the same as elsewhere: central banks have historically not been great interventionists when it comes to commodity prices. Prices for Japanese goods are now too expensive for foreigners due to the strength of the yen.
9) The Netherlands holds 612.5 tonnes.
It was surprising to see that the Dutch were one of the top ten in nations when it comes to gold reserves, even if it used to hold more gold. You rarely hear of a "Dutch-led bailout for the PIIGS" but anything is possible in theory. The nation was a seller of gold from at least 2003 to 2008 under the Central Bank Gold Agreement in Europe. The country's gold holdings are unlikely to change much.
10) India holds 557.7 tonnes… and growing.
India is the second most populous country in the world with nearly 1.2 billion people. Gold is such a part of the country's culture that it's impossible to think of India not accumulating more gold. In fact, about one-third of the world's jewelry demand comes from there.
India acquired 200 tonnes of the IMF gold sales in late-2010 at prevailing market prices. Some may have considered this a peak of the trend, but India is likely to continue acquiring gold under a normalized scenario for 2011 and perhaps for the years ahead.
11) Taiwan holds 423.6 tonnes.
It was rather surprising to see Taiwan as one of the world's largest gold holders. Maybe it is for the nation's vast electronics business, or maybe it is to financially stay relevant in its long ongoing confrontation with China. The nation is already considered wealthier per capita than many neighboring countries, but with the accumulation of gold made by China it almost seems unlikely to expect much major selling now from what was formerly known as Formosa.
12) Portugal holds 382.5 tonnes.
It was also surprising to see Portugal in the top fifteen holders of gold. This must go back to the days of its empire building ambitions considering that its population is only just under 11 million people. Or maybe it was that the nation was able to remain neutral in World War II. If the PIIGS nation is in such dire straights, maybe its benefactors could consider taking pledges of some of its gold assets. As Portugal has been a part of Central Bank Gold Agreement and a seller in recent years, it would seem likely that the country would unload more of its holdings.
In 2010, Venezuela was listed by the World Gold Council as having been a buyer of 3.1 tonnes after buying 4.1 tonnes locally in 2009. There is no reason to expect that to change.
Quasi Government and ETF Dominance
The International Monetary Fund holds some 2,846.7 tonnes, which would give it the ranking of No.3 in the world if it was a sovereign nation. The IMF might see continued pressure on its gold reserves ahead, unless more gold is pledged to it by stronger nations to assist in `stabilization' bail-outs. The IMF's Executive Board approved the sale of 403.3 tonnes in September 2009, which came to about one-eighth of its total gold holdings at the time. The work ahead for the PIIGS alone requires billions and billions of dollars, and the IMF has been involved there.
The European Central Bank holds 501.4 tonnes of gold and would rank No. 12 if it was ranked as a nation rather than a governing body over nations in a region. What this amount will be when the IMF and data statistics unit reports at the next update is anyone's guess. The European Union bailout funds have to come from somewhere other than IOU letters, but the source is up for debate. E.U. member nations transferred in gold reserves and transferred in foreign reserve assets and the initial target for members was 15% of the total. As at September 2010, the ECB held 26% of its reserves in gold.
The huge growth mechanism in the gold universe has been from the SDPR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) with its 1,260.84 tonnes as of this week, which is more fresh data. You will see more of a "full gold ETF picture" later to make this more of an apples-to-gold comparison. The "GLD," as it is called by investors would be ranked above China and behind Italy in gold reserves if it were a central bank. The value of its holdings is roughly $54.4 billion .
Most investors do not need an introduction to this exchange-traded product any longer other than the reminder of just how large and just how dominant this is. The most recent 2010-end data from the World Gold Council noted that the gold ETFs monitored in sum had net inflows of 361 tonnes during 2010 versus some 617 tonnes of net inflows in 2009. The total holdings of ETF gold now hit a new high of 2,167.4 tonnes with a value of some $98 billion. The "GLD" accounted for more than half of all tracked ETF products. All in all, this is a staggering figure because this is the easiest of all gold holdings to track almost daily.
Elsewhere on the globe….
If you tally up the top fifteen central banks of the world (including ECB and IMF), the total is more than 25,500 tonnes. If you add the value of the exchange-traded products with more than 2,100 tonnes, then the total value of the top 15 central banks and quasi-governmental agencies comes to more than $1.15 trillion before personal gold holdings, industry holdings, jewelry holdings and more. The top 15 nations and entities still dominate the world of gold. Of the 113 countries and equivalents, the world's gold reserves come to 30,546.1 tonnes at the central bank level.
Perhaps the largest surprise was to see that the United Kingdom ranked #17 on the list of central banks by assets, preceded by Saudi Arabia and followed by Lebanon. To get a clear picture of the world's gold use and supply, we wanted to see other annual data as well.
We wanted to look at the industry and private holdings that are making an impact in gold as well. What about markets and exchanges? COMEX has shown that "the total non-commercial and non-reportable net long positions" that shows more speculative investment demand was high again in 2010. The 2010-end data from the World Gold Council showed that the net-long position was roughly 26.3 million ounces or some 818.1 tonnes of gold. The over-the-counter derivative market is of course very difficult to track, but it is believed to have positively added to the price of gold in 2010.
There has been a huge market for gold bars and gold coins, which is not shocking if you have watched any financial televsion promotional commercials in recent times. The World Gold Council noted that physical delivery at the Shanghai Gold Exchange alone was 836.7 tonnes in 2010 and that 236.6 tonnes were delivered during the fourth quarter. Investors in India are said to remain strong as well as elsewhere in Asia. The figure from the U.S. Mint is that Americans bought roughly 1.2 million ounces, about 38 tonnes, worth of American Eagle bullion coins in 2010 after the 2009 figure of 1.4 million ounces or some 44.3 tonnes.
What about the world of jewelry, what "the rest of us" think of as the main use of gold? The World Gold Council's recent year-end data is not complete for jewelry, but it showed that global jewelry demand was up 18% for the first nine-months of 2010 at some 1,468.2 tonnes at roughly $55.5 billion. To show just how much India loves gold jewelry, its portion of 2010′s first nine months total was some 513.5 tonnes and that is more than one-third of the demand.
What about technology demand for gold? The most recent data is also only for the first nine months of 2010, but that was said to be up 19% from 2009 to 221.8 tonnes. That is close to the same level of 238.4 tonnes in 2008′s equivalent period.
And mine production and recycling? The total gold supply from mine production, recycling, and from official sector transactions came to 2,993.3 tonnes in the first nine months of 2010. Despite a gain in the first quarter of 2010, the World Gold Council said that this figure represented a drop lower by 3.1% versus the same period during 2009. The belief is that gold from mining and recycling will have risen for 2010 and will reach levels seen at the start of the decade.
Calculating the real value of "above gound gold stocks" will vary from source and to source and it is almost impossible to value the hidden sums of gold that is unreported or that has been in family hands. The World Council did put out a rough estimate of the total value as being some $7.277 trillion based on 2009 volume and the fourth quarter of 2010 average gold prices.
JON C. OGG
Read more: The 13 Countries That Control the World's Gold - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2011/01/26/the-13-countries-that-control-the-worlds-gold/#ixzz1CaZNTOzu
Many issues should be considered in gold investing including demand from the private sector for bars, coins and jewelry along with industrial use.
1) United States holds 8,133.5 tonnes.
What the U.S. holdings will be when the next report comes out in another 7 weeks or so is uncertain. There will have been more than $600 billion in new commitments for Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve in the last few months. The US debt ceiling has been an ongoing issue. The U.S. could always try unloading some gold to depress rising commodity prices rather than to increase the deficit, but unfortunately that would only last a few months. If it did sell some of the shiny gold metal, Uncle Sam would have to find huge amounts of gold later. Besides, it is arguable whether countries are any good at price intervention. The lackluster economic recovery may result in little change in the gold holdings of Uncle Sam in 2011.
2) Germany holds 3,401.8 tonnes.
Germany is the foundation of the European Union and the Euro. The Germans were sellers of gold for coins under the Central Bank Gold Agreements (The third Central Bank Gold Agreement currently in force covers the gold sales of the Eurosystem central banks, Sweden and Switzerland) from at least 2003 to 2008, but the sales were not enough to put a serious dent in its supply of gold. Under the current state of the E.U., it's hard to see Germany becoming a huge buyer of the shiny metal. A sale might cause investors to panic and cause the euro to collapse. Unlikely, but a theory. The funds to bail out troubled European countries, however, have to come from somewhere. If Germany does sell gold reserves then it seems unlikely to be substantial enough that its #2 position would be up for challenge.
3) Italy holds 2,451.8 tonnes.
Italy was in the Central Bank Gold Agreements . On the surface, it seems that the Italians are unlikely to sell off their gold reserves even if they are the least discussed nation among the PIIGS. Releasing gold might address some of Italy's budget gaps, but the country faces many serious economic problems. If we had to guess about reserves, we'd expect to see a slow or small drop but not enough to make much difference.
4) France holds 2,435.4 tonnes.
The French are the French and predicting what will happen with France's gold reserves is difficult at best. Someone has to bail out the PIIGS, and France is the second part of the foundation of the European Union and the Euro currency. France is part of the Central Bank Gold Agreement that had led to selling, but this was all before the major run-up in gold. The logic would seem to hold that more light selling would be expected.
5) China holds 1,054.1 tonnes… and probably now more.
China is adding to its gold reserves to the point that few question whether China's gold hoard will move higher. With more than 1.3 billion people and a fast-growing economy, it seems that the only thing that might impede gold buying is its own fight against inflation in 2011. Some 454 tonnes of gold was bought between 2003 and 2009. China probably added more than 200 tonnes during 2010 and "The World's Growth Engine" is likely to keep adding gold to assure the value of the yuan.
6) Switzerland holds 1,040.1 tonnes.
Imagining that the Swiss will buy more gold is hard after reports in recent years that it ran out of places to securely store it, even if those reports are debatable. Then add in that Switzerland sold many tonnes of reserves under the time of the Central Bank Gold Agreement from 2003 to 2008, long before the great gold rush came upon us. With a population of 7.6 million people, how much gold does the nation need ? Switzerland can still lighten its gold reserves and not be challenged over being one of the world's international banking center and as a benchmark currency.
7) Russia holds 784.1 tonnes… and more.
Russia is gobbling up gold as its economic power grows. The report from the World Gold Council showed that it had accumulated some 120 tonnes in just the first 10 months of 2010 after adding more than 100 tonnes in 2009 and close to 70 tonnes in 2007. More gold was purchased in November of 2010 after the data cut-off. The Russians also have huge oil and commodity reserves. Unless gold suddenly plummets to unexpected lows to the point where it has embarrassing losses, then it is easy to assume that Russia will keep increasing its gold reserves.
8 ) Japan holds 765.2 tonnes.
Japanese people are known for keeping cash under their mattresses, but maybe they also stash gold. Japan has an inflated currency and it may decide to unload some gold holdings to be more competitive economically. The risk is a rather simple one, and that is the same as elsewhere: central banks have historically not been great interventionists when it comes to commodity prices. Prices for Japanese goods are now too expensive for foreigners due to the strength of the yen.
9) The Netherlands holds 612.5 tonnes.
It was surprising to see that the Dutch were one of the top ten in nations when it comes to gold reserves, even if it used to hold more gold. You rarely hear of a "Dutch-led bailout for the PIIGS" but anything is possible in theory. The nation was a seller of gold from at least 2003 to 2008 under the Central Bank Gold Agreement in Europe. The country's gold holdings are unlikely to change much.
10) India holds 557.7 tonnes… and growing.
India is the second most populous country in the world with nearly 1.2 billion people. Gold is such a part of the country's culture that it's impossible to think of India not accumulating more gold. In fact, about one-third of the world's jewelry demand comes from there.
India acquired 200 tonnes of the IMF gold sales in late-2010 at prevailing market prices. Some may have considered this a peak of the trend, but India is likely to continue acquiring gold under a normalized scenario for 2011 and perhaps for the years ahead.
11) Taiwan holds 423.6 tonnes.
It was rather surprising to see Taiwan as one of the world's largest gold holders. Maybe it is for the nation's vast electronics business, or maybe it is to financially stay relevant in its long ongoing confrontation with China. The nation is already considered wealthier per capita than many neighboring countries, but with the accumulation of gold made by China it almost seems unlikely to expect much major selling now from what was formerly known as Formosa.
12) Portugal holds 382.5 tonnes.
It was also surprising to see Portugal in the top fifteen holders of gold. This must go back to the days of its empire building ambitions considering that its population is only just under 11 million people. Or maybe it was that the nation was able to remain neutral in World War II. If the PIIGS nation is in such dire straights, maybe its benefactors could consider taking pledges of some of its gold assets. As Portugal has been a part of Central Bank Gold Agreement and a seller in recent years, it would seem likely that the country would unload more of its holdings.
13) Venezuela holds 365.8 tonnes.
If you ask politicians which nation is the most least trusted in the Western Hemisphere, the answer is likely Venezuela. Hugo Chavez has been no friend to America and the wealth coming to the country from its oil sales and from nationalization (some would say seizure) of businesses has only brought more wealth to the nation. With its population of more than 27 million people, Venezuela is the sole Latin American country in the top fifteen gold holders of the world.In 2010, Venezuela was listed by the World Gold Council as having been a buyer of 3.1 tonnes after buying 4.1 tonnes locally in 2009. There is no reason to expect that to change.
Quasi Government and ETF Dominance
The International Monetary Fund holds some 2,846.7 tonnes, which would give it the ranking of No.3 in the world if it was a sovereign nation. The IMF might see continued pressure on its gold reserves ahead, unless more gold is pledged to it by stronger nations to assist in `stabilization' bail-outs. The IMF's Executive Board approved the sale of 403.3 tonnes in September 2009, which came to about one-eighth of its total gold holdings at the time. The work ahead for the PIIGS alone requires billions and billions of dollars, and the IMF has been involved there.
The European Central Bank holds 501.4 tonnes of gold and would rank No. 12 if it was ranked as a nation rather than a governing body over nations in a region. What this amount will be when the IMF and data statistics unit reports at the next update is anyone's guess. The European Union bailout funds have to come from somewhere other than IOU letters, but the source is up for debate. E.U. member nations transferred in gold reserves and transferred in foreign reserve assets and the initial target for members was 15% of the total. As at September 2010, the ECB held 26% of its reserves in gold.
The huge growth mechanism in the gold universe has been from the SDPR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) with its 1,260.84 tonnes as of this week, which is more fresh data. You will see more of a "full gold ETF picture" later to make this more of an apples-to-gold comparison. The "GLD," as it is called by investors would be ranked above China and behind Italy in gold reserves if it were a central bank. The value of its holdings is roughly $54.4 billion .
Most investors do not need an introduction to this exchange-traded product any longer other than the reminder of just how large and just how dominant this is. The most recent 2010-end data from the World Gold Council noted that the gold ETFs monitored in sum had net inflows of 361 tonnes during 2010 versus some 617 tonnes of net inflows in 2009. The total holdings of ETF gold now hit a new high of 2,167.4 tonnes with a value of some $98 billion. The "GLD" accounted for more than half of all tracked ETF products. All in all, this is a staggering figure because this is the easiest of all gold holdings to track almost daily.
Elsewhere on the globe….
If you tally up the top fifteen central banks of the world (including ECB and IMF), the total is more than 25,500 tonnes. If you add the value of the exchange-traded products with more than 2,100 tonnes, then the total value of the top 15 central banks and quasi-governmental agencies comes to more than $1.15 trillion before personal gold holdings, industry holdings, jewelry holdings and more. The top 15 nations and entities still dominate the world of gold. Of the 113 countries and equivalents, the world's gold reserves come to 30,546.1 tonnes at the central bank level.
Perhaps the largest surprise was to see that the United Kingdom ranked #17 on the list of central banks by assets, preceded by Saudi Arabia and followed by Lebanon. To get a clear picture of the world's gold use and supply, we wanted to see other annual data as well.
We wanted to look at the industry and private holdings that are making an impact in gold as well. What about markets and exchanges? COMEX has shown that "the total non-commercial and non-reportable net long positions" that shows more speculative investment demand was high again in 2010. The 2010-end data from the World Gold Council showed that the net-long position was roughly 26.3 million ounces or some 818.1 tonnes of gold. The over-the-counter derivative market is of course very difficult to track, but it is believed to have positively added to the price of gold in 2010.
There has been a huge market for gold bars and gold coins, which is not shocking if you have watched any financial televsion promotional commercials in recent times. The World Gold Council noted that physical delivery at the Shanghai Gold Exchange alone was 836.7 tonnes in 2010 and that 236.6 tonnes were delivered during the fourth quarter. Investors in India are said to remain strong as well as elsewhere in Asia. The figure from the U.S. Mint is that Americans bought roughly 1.2 million ounces, about 38 tonnes, worth of American Eagle bullion coins in 2010 after the 2009 figure of 1.4 million ounces or some 44.3 tonnes.
What about the world of jewelry, what "the rest of us" think of as the main use of gold? The World Gold Council's recent year-end data is not complete for jewelry, but it showed that global jewelry demand was up 18% for the first nine-months of 2010 at some 1,468.2 tonnes at roughly $55.5 billion. To show just how much India loves gold jewelry, its portion of 2010′s first nine months total was some 513.5 tonnes and that is more than one-third of the demand.
What about technology demand for gold? The most recent data is also only for the first nine months of 2010, but that was said to be up 19% from 2009 to 221.8 tonnes. That is close to the same level of 238.4 tonnes in 2008′s equivalent period.
And mine production and recycling? The total gold supply from mine production, recycling, and from official sector transactions came to 2,993.3 tonnes in the first nine months of 2010. Despite a gain in the first quarter of 2010, the World Gold Council said that this figure represented a drop lower by 3.1% versus the same period during 2009. The belief is that gold from mining and recycling will have risen for 2010 and will reach levels seen at the start of the decade.
Calculating the real value of "above gound gold stocks" will vary from source and to source and it is almost impossible to value the hidden sums of gold that is unreported or that has been in family hands. The World Council did put out a rough estimate of the total value as being some $7.277 trillion based on 2009 volume and the fourth quarter of 2010 average gold prices.
JON C. OGG
Read more: The 13 Countries That Control the World's Gold - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2011/01/26/the-13-countries-that-control-the-worlds-gold/#ixzz1CaZNTOzu
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2 abr 2011
Prepararse para la implosión del mercado de los Bonos del tesoro estadounidense
Prepararse para la implosión del mercado de los Bonos del tesoro estadounidense
- Nota publica de GEAB N°53 (18 de marzo de 2011) -
Más allá de sus trágicas consecuencias humanas (1), la terrible catástrofe que acaba de afectar a Japón constituirá un golpe fatal para el tambaleante mercado de T-Bonds. En el GEAB N° 52, nuestro equipo explicó cómo la secuencia de las revoluciones árabes, la caída de la « pared de los petrodólares » (2), se traducirá durante el año 2011 en la interrupción de las grandes compras de T-Bonds de los países del Golfo. En este GEAB N° 53, anticipamos que el repentino golpe que sufre la economía japonesa va a provocar no sólo la interrupción de las compras de T-Bonds por Japón, sino que obligará a las autoridades de Tokio a vender persistentemente una parte importante de sus reservas en estos bonos con el fin de financiar el enorme coste de estabilización, reconstrucción y reactivación de la economía nipona (3).
Japón y los países del Golfo, ellos solos, representan el 25 % del total de 4.400 millardos de USD de la deuda federal estadounidense (diciembre de 2010), el LEAP/E2020 considera que esta nueva situación que se presenta durante este primer trimestre 2011, en un contexto de creciente renuencia de China (20 % del Bono del tesoro US) a continuar invirtiendo en los títulos federales de EEUU (4), es portador del germen de la implosión del mercado de los T-Bonds segundo semestre de 2011; un mercado que ahora tiene un sólo comprador: la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos (5).
Ciertamente, el contexto de la crisis de los títulos de las administraciones locales estadounidense y las deudas públicas europeas (toda la periferia de la UE incluido el Reino Unido) que nuestro equipo anticipó para este período (ver a GEAB N° 50 ) sólo exacerbará el fenómeno. Por otra parte, es muy significativo que PIMCO, el más importante gestor privado de renta fija a nivel mundial haya decidido, a finales de febrero de 2011, desembarazarse de sus T-Bonds. I esto fue antes de la catástrofe en Japón (6)!
Japón y los países del Golfo, ellos solos, representan el 25 % del total de 4.400 millardos de USD de la deuda federal estadounidense (diciembre de 2010), el LEAP/E2020 considera que esta nueva situación que se presenta durante este primer trimestre 2011, en un contexto de creciente renuencia de China (20 % del Bono del tesoro US) a continuar invirtiendo en los títulos federales de EEUU (4), es portador del germen de la implosión del mercado de los T-Bonds segundo semestre de 2011; un mercado que ahora tiene un sólo comprador: la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos (5).
Ciertamente, el contexto de la crisis de los títulos de las administraciones locales estadounidense y las deudas públicas europeas (toda la periferia de la UE incluido el Reino Unido) que nuestro equipo anticipó para este período (ver a GEAB N° 50 ) sólo exacerbará el fenómeno. Por otra parte, es muy significativo que PIMCO, el más importante gestor privado de renta fija a nivel mundial haya decidido, a finales de febrero de 2011, desembarazarse de sus T-Bonds. I esto fue antes de la catástrofe en Japón (6)!
Principales poseedores de la deuda federal estadounidense (10/2010) - Fuentes: US Treasury / Dave's Manuel
Pero más allá de las conmociones japonesas y árabes (ver a GEAB N° 52 ), el proceso de implosión del mercado de la deuda federal estadounidense en el segundo semestre de 2011 se acelera bajo el efecto de otros cuatro fenómenos:
. La implementación de la austeridad presupuestaria en Estados Unidos (como lo anticipamos en el GEAB N° 47) que condena las administraciones locales de ese país a una importante crisis del mercado de su deuda (« Munis »)
. La imposibilidad para la FED de colocar un QE3
. La inevitable alza de las tasas de interés en un marco de inflación mundial
. El fin de la condición de refugio de la divisa estadounidense.
Desde luego el conjunto de estos fenómenos está vinculado, es la característica de una gran crisis y entramos en un período en el que los impactos se reforzarán mutuamente, produciendo el violento shock del segundo trimestre de 2011. Podríamos por otra parte añadir un quinto fenómeno: la completa parálisis decisoria del poder en Estados Unidos. El enfrentamiento diario, prácticamente en todos los campos, entre Republicanos (radicalizados por "Tea-Parties") y Demócratas (desmoralizados por la administración Obama que traicionó lo esencial de sus compromisos electorales (7)), tiende cada día un poco más a demostrar que Washington es ya una suerte de « La nave de los necios », sacudida por los acontecimientos, sin una estrategia, sin voluntad, sin capacidad de acción (8). En otras palabras, según el LEAP/E2020, cuando la implosión del mercado de los T-Bonds se inicie, no se espera nada diferente en Washington que una prodigiosa cacofonía que sólo agravará la crisis.
En este comunicado público del GEAB N° 53, escogimos presentar más detalladamente nuestra anticipación del efecto de la catástrofe japonesa a escala global particularmente en materia de inflación y geopolítica. Analizados en este GEAB otros fenómenos que conducen a la implosión del mercado T-Bonds en el segundo semestre de 2011, donde también formulamos recomendaciones para hacer frente a la evidente agravación del proceso de desarticulación geopolítica mundial.
La triple catástrofe que acaba de ocurrir en Japón (terremoto, tsunami y accidente nuclear) constituye un acontecimiento crucial que va a acelerar e intensificar la crisis sistémica global y en particular el proceso de desarticulación geopolítica mundial. La magnitud de las destrucciones, el impacto directo sobre las infraestructuras energéticas de la tercera o la cuarta economía del mundo (9), la gravedad de los accidentes en las centrales nucleares (10), constituye uno de esas importantes conmociones que el sistema internacional actual ya no es capaz de resistir como lo anticipáramos en el GEAB N° 51 (« 2011: El año despiadado »).
Japón, ya muy debilitado por una crisis económica crónica, desde hace veinte años y con una de las deudas públicas más importantes del mundo, se encuentra ahora frente a la doble necesidad de financiar una reconstrucción a gran escala y de asegurar la transición hacia un período indefinido, caracterizado por la limitación de la energía disponible y la ruptura de los canales de suministro comerciales. Japón es un componente fundamental del sistema de gobernanza mundial de estas últimas décadas. Tokio es una de las principales plazas financieras mundiales, uno de tres polos de gestión de los mercados de divisas (con Londres y Nueva York) y la economía japonesa abastece cantidad de componentes electrónicos vitales para la economía mundial. Finalmente, como lo analizáramos en GEABs anteriores, son con Reino los dos « flotadores » (11) que permite a Estados Unidos administrar los asuntos mundiales en materia económica, monetaria y financiera hace más de cincuenta años.
Este « flotador » está siendo atraído desde hace algunos años de manera creciente a la órbita china, al ritmo del aumento del poder de China y del debilitamiento de Estados Unidos. La crisis disparada por el terremoto, según el LEAP/E2020, acelerará fuertemente esta tendencia particularmente porque hoy, sólo China se halla en situación de aportar una gran ayuda financiera a Japón (12), simplemente ayudando a su economía abriendo todavía más a las empresas japonesas al inmenso mercado chino (13).
. La implementación de la austeridad presupuestaria en Estados Unidos (como lo anticipamos en el GEAB N° 47) que condena las administraciones locales de ese país a una importante crisis del mercado de su deuda (« Munis »)
. La imposibilidad para la FED de colocar un QE3
. La inevitable alza de las tasas de interés en un marco de inflación mundial
. El fin de la condición de refugio de la divisa estadounidense.
Desde luego el conjunto de estos fenómenos está vinculado, es la característica de una gran crisis y entramos en un período en el que los impactos se reforzarán mutuamente, produciendo el violento shock del segundo trimestre de 2011. Podríamos por otra parte añadir un quinto fenómeno: la completa parálisis decisoria del poder en Estados Unidos. El enfrentamiento diario, prácticamente en todos los campos, entre Republicanos (radicalizados por "Tea-Parties") y Demócratas (desmoralizados por la administración Obama que traicionó lo esencial de sus compromisos electorales (7)), tiende cada día un poco más a demostrar que Washington es ya una suerte de « La nave de los necios », sacudida por los acontecimientos, sin una estrategia, sin voluntad, sin capacidad de acción (8). En otras palabras, según el LEAP/E2020, cuando la implosión del mercado de los T-Bonds se inicie, no se espera nada diferente en Washington que una prodigiosa cacofonía que sólo agravará la crisis.
En este comunicado público del GEAB N° 53, escogimos presentar más detalladamente nuestra anticipación del efecto de la catástrofe japonesa a escala global particularmente en materia de inflación y geopolítica. Analizados en este GEAB otros fenómenos que conducen a la implosión del mercado T-Bonds en el segundo semestre de 2011, donde también formulamos recomendaciones para hacer frente a la evidente agravación del proceso de desarticulación geopolítica mundial.
La triple catástrofe que acaba de ocurrir en Japón (terremoto, tsunami y accidente nuclear) constituye un acontecimiento crucial que va a acelerar e intensificar la crisis sistémica global y en particular el proceso de desarticulación geopolítica mundial. La magnitud de las destrucciones, el impacto directo sobre las infraestructuras energéticas de la tercera o la cuarta economía del mundo (9), la gravedad de los accidentes en las centrales nucleares (10), constituye uno de esas importantes conmociones que el sistema internacional actual ya no es capaz de resistir como lo anticipáramos en el GEAB N° 51 (« 2011: El año despiadado »).
Japón, ya muy debilitado por una crisis económica crónica, desde hace veinte años y con una de las deudas públicas más importantes del mundo, se encuentra ahora frente a la doble necesidad de financiar una reconstrucción a gran escala y de asegurar la transición hacia un período indefinido, caracterizado por la limitación de la energía disponible y la ruptura de los canales de suministro comerciales. Japón es un componente fundamental del sistema de gobernanza mundial de estas últimas décadas. Tokio es una de las principales plazas financieras mundiales, uno de tres polos de gestión de los mercados de divisas (con Londres y Nueva York) y la economía japonesa abastece cantidad de componentes electrónicos vitales para la economía mundial. Finalmente, como lo analizáramos en GEABs anteriores, son con Reino los dos « flotadores » (11) que permite a Estados Unidos administrar los asuntos mundiales en materia económica, monetaria y financiera hace más de cincuenta años.
Este « flotador » está siendo atraído desde hace algunos años de manera creciente a la órbita china, al ritmo del aumento del poder de China y del debilitamiento de Estados Unidos. La crisis disparada por el terremoto, según el LEAP/E2020, acelerará fuertemente esta tendencia particularmente porque hoy, sólo China se halla en situación de aportar una gran ayuda financiera a Japón (12), simplemente ayudando a su economía abriendo todavía más a las empresas japonesas al inmenso mercado chino (13).
Parte declinante del USD en las transacciones internacionales (serie N°1) y en las reservas mundiales de cambio (serie N° 2) - Fuentes: BRI / FMI / Wall Street Journal, 03/2011
En cuanto a la inflación mundial, ya podemos identificar cinco canales por los cuales la crisis japonesa va a reforzar las presiones inflacionistas actuales:
1. El desbastante golpe al desarrollo de las políticas de equipamiento nuclear civil en todo el mundo (14) hará que aumente la presión sobre el precio del petróleo (15), del gas y del carbón
2. la escasez de numerosos componentes vitales electrónicos que va a generar una alza de los precios de los equipos electrónicos (ordenadores, pasando por televisores de pantalla plana (16)) a causa de los corte de energía que afectan las fábricas y la desorganización de los transportes (17)
3. mayor presión sobre los precios mundiales de los alimentos y la energía (18) debido a un aumento significativo de las importaciones alimentarias de Japón (particularmente arroz) ya que la región afectada es una de las principales regiones agrícolas del país (ver mapa más abajo)
4. un nuevo retroceso en la globalización económica a raíz de las consecuencias mundiales del cierre virtual de la economía japonesa, campeona a la vez de las exportaciones y del "justo a tiempo" (19), que va a limitar por ello el efecto "deflacionario" de los intercambios globalizados (20)
5. y finalmente, el doble fenómeno de la pérdida de valor del yen, debido a las inyecciones masivas de liquidez por el Banco de Japón y el encarecimiento directo del « alquiler » del dinero en el mundo (mayores tasas), debido a las enormes necesidades Japón para la reconstrucción.
1. El desbastante golpe al desarrollo de las políticas de equipamiento nuclear civil en todo el mundo (14) hará que aumente la presión sobre el precio del petróleo (15), del gas y del carbón
2. la escasez de numerosos componentes vitales electrónicos que va a generar una alza de los precios de los equipos electrónicos (ordenadores, pasando por televisores de pantalla plana (16)) a causa de los corte de energía que afectan las fábricas y la desorganización de los transportes (17)
3. mayor presión sobre los precios mundiales de los alimentos y la energía (18) debido a un aumento significativo de las importaciones alimentarias de Japón (particularmente arroz) ya que la región afectada es una de las principales regiones agrícolas del país (ver mapa más abajo)
4. un nuevo retroceso en la globalización económica a raíz de las consecuencias mundiales del cierre virtual de la economía japonesa, campeona a la vez de las exportaciones y del "justo a tiempo" (19), que va a limitar por ello el efecto "deflacionario" de los intercambios globalizados (20)
5. y finalmente, el doble fenómeno de la pérdida de valor del yen, debido a las inyecciones masivas de liquidez por el Banco de Japón y el encarecimiento directo del « alquiler » del dinero en el mundo (mayores tasas), debido a las enormes necesidades Japón para la reconstrucción.
Utilización de las tierras japonesas (rojo: doble cosecha - arroz y trigo / salmón: cosecha única - arroz / castaña: cosecha única - trigo / verde: bosque) - Utilización de las tierras japonesas (rojo: dobla cosecha - arroz y trigo / salmón: cosech
Estas anticipaciones evidentemente no incluye el escenario de una catástrofe extrema, que consistiría en una masiva contaminación radioactiva de la región de Tokio a raíz de una fusión explosiva de uno de los reactores de la central de Fukushima (21). Tal situación conduciría, similarmente a lo que ocurrió en Chernobil, a crear una zona de exclusión que afectaría a esta región en la que viven más de treinta millones de habitantes y se encuentra en el corazón de los corredores mundiales esenciales, lo cual provocaría una catástrofe humanitaria sin precedentes históricos y una discontinuidad inmediata de los mercados mundiales: económicos, financieros y monetarios. Simplemente no hay « plan B » para una « detención súbita » del nodo global que constituye Tokio y su región.
Deseando que esta situación extrema no ocurra, nuestro equipo considera que la conmoción, ya comprobada, conducirá a un agravamiento de la crisis sistémica mundial y que el mercado de T-Bonds será la primera gran víctima colateral desde el segundo semestre 2011 como lo analizamos detalladamente en este número del GEAB. Lo extremo afortunadamente no ha ocurrido, pero lo muy grave no deja lugar a dudas.
Deseando que esta situación extrema no ocurra, nuestro equipo considera que la conmoción, ya comprobada, conducirá a un agravamiento de la crisis sistémica mundial y que el mercado de T-Bonds será la primera gran víctima colateral desde el segundo semestre 2011 como lo analizamos detalladamente en este número del GEAB. Lo extremo afortunadamente no ha ocurrido, pero lo muy grave no deja lugar a dudas.
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Notas:
(1) En estas circunstancias trágicas, el equipo del LEAP/E2020 desea expresar su solidaridad con el pueblo japonés y en particular con nuestros numerosos abonados y los visitantes japoneses. También queremos subrayar que nuestro análisis muy « clínico » de las consecuencias de la catástrofe que acaba de sobrevenir en Japón no es una señal de indiferencia sino simplemente el respeto de nuestra metodología que pretende limitar estrictamente a lo mínimo posible los elementos subjetivos en nuestras anticipaciones.
(2) Hasta Telegraph del 24/02/2011 ahora interpreta las revoluciones populares árabes como la caída del imperio americano de Medio Oriente.
(3) Fuente: JapanToday, 14/03/2011
(4) Según el FT Deutschland, el banco central chino hasta habría recibido instrucciones de parar de comprarlos. Fuente: FT Deutschland, 10/03/2011
(5) Antes de la catástrofe japonesa, consideramos que la FED, de hecho ya el primer poseedor de T-Bonds, compraba ya más de 70 % de las nuevas emisiones. En las próximas semanas, esta proporción progresivamente va atender hacia el 90 % al 95 %. Porque a pesar de su docilidad frente a la presión estadounidense, el Reino Unido, se hunde cada día un poco más en la nueva fase de la crisis, la « double-dip-flation » como la denomina nuestro equipo, y carece de los medios para comprar los T-Bonds: está demasiado ocupado en rescatar los títulos de su propia deuda pública. Y, según Karen Ward, una de las principales economistas de HSBC, el gobierno británico hasta corre peligro de tener que enfrentar motines por hambre si los precios de los alimentos continúan subiendo como lo hacen desde hace varias semanas. Fuente: SkyNews, 09/03/2011
(6) A corto plazo, la huida de los valores bursátiles (japoneses y otros) puede beneficiar a los T-Bonds, pero es un fenómeno pasajero. Fuente: CNBC, 09/03/2011
(7) El último, cronológicamente, es la reapertura de los procesos de Guantánamo cuando había prometido el cierre de la prisión lo más tarde un año después de su elección, atrayéndose así millones de electores de la izquierda del partido demócrata.
(8) El otro gran país occidental donde las élites dirigentes están en la misma situación es Francia.
(9) Dependiendo que si se considera o no a la economía Eurolandia integralmente. Aunque la cumbre del último 11 de marzo al implementar todavía más profundamente la integración presupuestaria y financiera de los países de la Eurozona haga cada vez más aberrante la posición de querer continuar contabilizando separadamente los grandes agregados económicos de los países de la Eurozona. Así, con 8.400 mil millones dólares, el PBI de Eurolandia se sitúa en segunda posición detrás de Estados Unidos (10.428 mil millones dólares), a la cotización de 1€ a 1,4 dólares y muy ampliamente delante de China (4.100 mil millones dólares) y Japón (3.850 mil millones dólares). Fuentes: Wikipedia, Eurozona, Pone en una lista país por PNB: Wikipedia, Eurozone, Liste pays par PNB.
(10) Sin referirnos hasta a este momento al riesgo de una neutralización parcial o total de la región de Tokio, una de las metrópolis clave del mundo de estas últimas décadas, como medida ante una contaminación nuclear.
(11) A semejanza de un trimarán.
(12) Hay tener en cuenta que Pekín intenta, por todos los medios, desembarazarse rápidamente, pero de manera rentable, de su montaña de T-Bonds y otra de USD. El cataclismo que experimenta Japón ofrecerá a los dirigentes chinos una ocasión única de acercar estratégicamente Tokio a Pekín.
(13) A la inversa, la muy controvertida presencia de las tropas estadounidenses en Japón volverá a ser tema de la opinión nipona, tanto más por lo anacrónico e inútil frente a la catástrofe actual. Es otro ejemplo, como se pudo comprobar en el caso de las revoluciones árabes, de la inutilidad creciente del inmenso aparato militar estadounidense: crisis tras crisis, se vuelve evidente que prácticamente no tiene ninguna utilidad para permitirle al gobierno de Estados Unidos influir en los acontecimientos.
(14) Ciertamente, será muy difícil recuperarse de la frenada resultante del golpe que acaba de recibir la energía nuclear civil, particularmente porque esta catástrofe recae, de ahora en más, en el conflicto entre élites y opiniones públicas que la crisis sistémica global exacerba cada día un poco más. Entre los países que sufrirán frontalmente esta « revolución » nuclear, ya podemos citar a Francia que hizo desde hace cerca de cincuenta años de la energía nuclear civil una de las joyas de su tecnología y de sus exportaciones. Fuente: Spiegel, 14/03/2011
(15) Un factor que reforzará la tendencia inexorable de la región del Golfo hacia una situación de caos, incluso de conflicto directo entre Shiítas y Sunnitas, entre los pueblos de la región y sus dirigentes, entre Irán y Arabia Saudita. El envío de tropas saudíes a Bahrein es un indicio de la escalada de los riesgos en la región así como la participación financiera de los Emiratos Árabes Unidos que intentan mitigar con urgencia cuarenta años de desinterés hacia sectores enteros de sus poblaciones. Fuentes: AlJazeera, 15/03/2011; New York Times, 10/03/2011; AlJazeera, 10/03/2011
(16) Uno de los raros factores « bajistas » que permitía esconder el alza de los precios de los alimentos o de la energía en numerosos índices de precios. Así mismo en China y en todo el Sudeste asiático, el impacto de la escasez de componentes japoneses ya se hace sentir con suba inmediata de precios, ya que la industria electrónica japonesa masivamente deslocalizó partes enteras de su producción a través de toda el Asia pero mantuvo las fabricaciones estratégicas en Japón. Fuente: China Daily, 15/03/2011
(17) En todo el mundo vamos a experimentar la escasez de automóviles japoneses y de piezas de recambio para estos vehículos. Dado la importancia mundial de la industria automotriz japonesa no habrá una solución fácil de implementar. Hasta en la India, aunque depende poco de marcas japonesas, el impacto ya se hace sentir directamente al haber anulado los grandes grupos japoneses la venta y promoción de los nuevos modelos. Fuente: Times of India, 15/03/2011
(18) Varias refinerías japonesas se destruyeron. Esto implica un aumento en importaciones de productos refinados lo que podría generan alzas de los precios de la gasolina en Estados Unidos. Fuente: USAToday, 14/03/2011
(19) Las economías exportadoras chinas y alemanas (así como Corea del Sur, Taiwán) también van a sufrir las consecuencias negativas de esta evolución.
(20) Es importante tener en cuenta que el retroceso de la globalización de los intercambios a favor de un enfoque regional sobre zonas económicas dotadas de una moneda única o dominante (UE, Asia, América latina) provoca una disminución simultánea de las necesidades de USD para financiar los intercambios internacionales. Ver diferentes a GEAB precedentes.
(21) Lo que también induciría consecuencias internacionales en materia de lluvia radioactiva.
Notas:
(1) En estas circunstancias trágicas, el equipo del LEAP/E2020 desea expresar su solidaridad con el pueblo japonés y en particular con nuestros numerosos abonados y los visitantes japoneses. También queremos subrayar que nuestro análisis muy « clínico » de las consecuencias de la catástrofe que acaba de sobrevenir en Japón no es una señal de indiferencia sino simplemente el respeto de nuestra metodología que pretende limitar estrictamente a lo mínimo posible los elementos subjetivos en nuestras anticipaciones.
(2) Hasta Telegraph del 24/02/2011 ahora interpreta las revoluciones populares árabes como la caída del imperio americano de Medio Oriente.
(3) Fuente: JapanToday, 14/03/2011
(4) Según el FT Deutschland, el banco central chino hasta habría recibido instrucciones de parar de comprarlos. Fuente: FT Deutschland, 10/03/2011
(5) Antes de la catástrofe japonesa, consideramos que la FED, de hecho ya el primer poseedor de T-Bonds, compraba ya más de 70 % de las nuevas emisiones. En las próximas semanas, esta proporción progresivamente va atender hacia el 90 % al 95 %. Porque a pesar de su docilidad frente a la presión estadounidense, el Reino Unido, se hunde cada día un poco más en la nueva fase de la crisis, la « double-dip-flation » como la denomina nuestro equipo, y carece de los medios para comprar los T-Bonds: está demasiado ocupado en rescatar los títulos de su propia deuda pública. Y, según Karen Ward, una de las principales economistas de HSBC, el gobierno británico hasta corre peligro de tener que enfrentar motines por hambre si los precios de los alimentos continúan subiendo como lo hacen desde hace varias semanas. Fuente: SkyNews, 09/03/2011
(6) A corto plazo, la huida de los valores bursátiles (japoneses y otros) puede beneficiar a los T-Bonds, pero es un fenómeno pasajero. Fuente: CNBC, 09/03/2011
(7) El último, cronológicamente, es la reapertura de los procesos de Guantánamo cuando había prometido el cierre de la prisión lo más tarde un año después de su elección, atrayéndose así millones de electores de la izquierda del partido demócrata.
(8) El otro gran país occidental donde las élites dirigentes están en la misma situación es Francia.
(9) Dependiendo que si se considera o no a la economía Eurolandia integralmente. Aunque la cumbre del último 11 de marzo al implementar todavía más profundamente la integración presupuestaria y financiera de los países de la Eurozona haga cada vez más aberrante la posición de querer continuar contabilizando separadamente los grandes agregados económicos de los países de la Eurozona. Así, con 8.400 mil millones dólares, el PBI de Eurolandia se sitúa en segunda posición detrás de Estados Unidos (10.428 mil millones dólares), a la cotización de 1€ a 1,4 dólares y muy ampliamente delante de China (4.100 mil millones dólares) y Japón (3.850 mil millones dólares). Fuentes: Wikipedia, Eurozona, Pone en una lista país por PNB: Wikipedia, Eurozone, Liste pays par PNB.
(10) Sin referirnos hasta a este momento al riesgo de una neutralización parcial o total de la región de Tokio, una de las metrópolis clave del mundo de estas últimas décadas, como medida ante una contaminación nuclear.
(11) A semejanza de un trimarán.
(12) Hay tener en cuenta que Pekín intenta, por todos los medios, desembarazarse rápidamente, pero de manera rentable, de su montaña de T-Bonds y otra de USD. El cataclismo que experimenta Japón ofrecerá a los dirigentes chinos una ocasión única de acercar estratégicamente Tokio a Pekín.
(13) A la inversa, la muy controvertida presencia de las tropas estadounidenses en Japón volverá a ser tema de la opinión nipona, tanto más por lo anacrónico e inútil frente a la catástrofe actual. Es otro ejemplo, como se pudo comprobar en el caso de las revoluciones árabes, de la inutilidad creciente del inmenso aparato militar estadounidense: crisis tras crisis, se vuelve evidente que prácticamente no tiene ninguna utilidad para permitirle al gobierno de Estados Unidos influir en los acontecimientos.
(14) Ciertamente, será muy difícil recuperarse de la frenada resultante del golpe que acaba de recibir la energía nuclear civil, particularmente porque esta catástrofe recae, de ahora en más, en el conflicto entre élites y opiniones públicas que la crisis sistémica global exacerba cada día un poco más. Entre los países que sufrirán frontalmente esta « revolución » nuclear, ya podemos citar a Francia que hizo desde hace cerca de cincuenta años de la energía nuclear civil una de las joyas de su tecnología y de sus exportaciones. Fuente: Spiegel, 14/03/2011
(15) Un factor que reforzará la tendencia inexorable de la región del Golfo hacia una situación de caos, incluso de conflicto directo entre Shiítas y Sunnitas, entre los pueblos de la región y sus dirigentes, entre Irán y Arabia Saudita. El envío de tropas saudíes a Bahrein es un indicio de la escalada de los riesgos en la región así como la participación financiera de los Emiratos Árabes Unidos que intentan mitigar con urgencia cuarenta años de desinterés hacia sectores enteros de sus poblaciones. Fuentes: AlJazeera, 15/03/2011; New York Times, 10/03/2011; AlJazeera, 10/03/2011
(16) Uno de los raros factores « bajistas » que permitía esconder el alza de los precios de los alimentos o de la energía en numerosos índices de precios. Así mismo en China y en todo el Sudeste asiático, el impacto de la escasez de componentes japoneses ya se hace sentir con suba inmediata de precios, ya que la industria electrónica japonesa masivamente deslocalizó partes enteras de su producción a través de toda el Asia pero mantuvo las fabricaciones estratégicas en Japón. Fuente: China Daily, 15/03/2011
(17) En todo el mundo vamos a experimentar la escasez de automóviles japoneses y de piezas de recambio para estos vehículos. Dado la importancia mundial de la industria automotriz japonesa no habrá una solución fácil de implementar. Hasta en la India, aunque depende poco de marcas japonesas, el impacto ya se hace sentir directamente al haber anulado los grandes grupos japoneses la venta y promoción de los nuevos modelos. Fuente: Times of India, 15/03/2011
(18) Varias refinerías japonesas se destruyeron. Esto implica un aumento en importaciones de productos refinados lo que podría generan alzas de los precios de la gasolina en Estados Unidos. Fuente: USAToday, 14/03/2011
(19) Las economías exportadoras chinas y alemanas (así como Corea del Sur, Taiwán) también van a sufrir las consecuencias negativas de esta evolución.
(20) Es importante tener en cuenta que el retroceso de la globalización de los intercambios a favor de un enfoque regional sobre zonas económicas dotadas de una moneda única o dominante (UE, Asia, América latina) provoca una disminución simultánea de las necesidades de USD para financiar los intercambios internacionales. Ver diferentes a GEAB precedentes.
(21) Lo que también induciría consecuencias internacionales en materia de lluvia radioactiva.
Vendredi 18 Mars 2011
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