Fwd: Chart Focus: Mapping globalization

Chart Focus Newsletter December 2011 View on the Web: http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/newsletters/chartfocus/2011_12.htm Share Mapping globalization No more than 25 percent of economic activity is truly global, yet visions of a borderless planet entrance many senior executives. To grasp the realities of a world where distance and differences still matter, they should develop "rooted" maps, which correct the misimpression that a viewer's vantage point doesn't influence the way things look. The starting point for rooted maps is to create a reference map depicting your industry environment, but not your own company's or country's place in it. An executive at a film studio, for example, might develop a map in which the size of countries reflects their total box office revenues and the color depicts the market share of domestic movies. By comparing the reference map with rooted maps, executives can identify the impact of borders, distances, and differences. Read "Remapping your strategic mind-set" (August 2011) to see rooted maps depicting the worldwide revenues of US versus Indian films, the exposure of German and US banks to problematic European loans, and the provenance of the oil supplies of China, Europe, and the United States. Also of Interest April 2011 Drawing a new road map for growth New findings reveal how large and small companies grow—and the startling performance of players in emerging markets. July 2010 Applying global trends: A look at China's auto industry Strategists can challenge conventional wisdom and prepare for uncertainty by analyzing the complex interaction of global trends in their industries. June 2010 Global forces: An introduction Five crucibles of change will restructure the world economy for the foreseeable future. Companies that understand them will stand the best chance of shaping it. [includes video] March 2008 Dissecting global trends: An example from Italy Executives should examine the impact of trends on subindustries, segments, categories, and micromarkets before placing their bets.

Did you miss last month's Chart Focus? How high unemployment lingers Increasingly long periods of high unemployment followed the US recessions of the last two decades. Until the 1980s, employment rebounded about six months after GDP. But in the wake of the 1990–91 and 2001 recessions, it recovered 15 and 39 months, respectively, after GDP had returned to the prerecession peak. At recent rates of job creation, the lag this time will be more than 60 months. You are receiving this e-mail because you are a registered member of mckinseyquarterly.com and have subscribed to the Economic Studies list. To ensure delivery, add e.mckinseyquarterly.com to your address book. McKinsey & Company, 21 South Clark Street, Chicago, Illinois 60603 Manage your subscriptions Unsubscribe from this mailing Access our help tool Read privacy policy

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sobre crisis financiera global
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El Perú supera a UK en el ranking crediticio

¿Les provoca sorpresa esta curiosa nota periodística que apareció el día de hoy en el Telegrafo de Londres y que ilustra bastante bien cuan absurdos pueden ser los ranking crediticios? ¿Britain ranks below Peru in new `sovereign risk' world order

By Ian Cowie Your Money Last updated: November 7th, 2011

13 Comments Comment on this article

Peru: not as risky as Britain

Britain ranks below Peru in a new analysis by one of the world's biggest fund managers of the risk to investors who buy government bonds. Norway, Sweden and Switzerland are the least risky bond issuers among 44 countries analysed in the BlackRock Sovereign Risk Index. At the other end of the scale, also in descending order, Egypt, Portugal and Greece are reckoned to be the most risky.

Britain falls near the middle of this new world order, ranking directly below Russia, China, Czech Republic, Israel and Peru. Some small comfort may be taken from the fact that gilts issued by the British Government are reckoned to be a better bet than bonds issued by France, the Philipines and Poland; which rank directly below Britain.

Dissatisfaction with credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor's,Fitch and Moody's – which have issued nearly 100 sovereign risk downgrades since the global credit crisis began – prompted BlackRockto begin collating its own analysts' views earlier this year. It claims back-testing of this analysis suggests it is more accurate than the credit rating agencies' and that the current crisis will continue with more government's getting into trouble with excess debt.

Benjamin Brodsky, managing director of fixed interest at BlackRock said: "Our initial analysis was judgmentally based, and contemporaneously validated by a high correlation with sovereign credit default swap (CDS) market spreads. Over recent months we have constructed the back history of this approach running from, taking care to use `real-time' data.

"In this quarterly update for the index, we complement our earlier analysis, showing how the BlackRock Sovereign Risk Index (BSRI) has outperformed both ratings agencies and sovereign credit default swap spreads in highlighting downgrade risks.

"Considering heightened activity within the Eurozone periphery in recent years, we present a case study that focuses on Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. We show how the BSRI would have led agency activity over the span of these countries, while leading markets in their shift from complacency."

As independent analysis from the Centre for Economics and Business Research suggests Britain might be better off if the eurozone breaks up, Ewen Cameron Watt, managing director of investment strategy at BlackRock, said: "Driven by multiple fundamental insights to the nature of sovereign credit risk, the BSRI presents a useful tool for profiling the strengths and weaknesses of countries against one another.

"Our research suggests these insights can lead rating agency activity, with an excellent track record at preceding downgrades, and historically would have highlighted areas of market complacency.

"As a backdrop for the future, we believe the multi-decade compilation of sovereign and banking crises by Reinhart and Rogoff presents a compelling case that in recent years financial markets have been complacent about risks that have always been present and, as more countries approach their upper limits of sustainable leverage, a return to a higher incidence of crises seems likely."

A fundamental shift of economic wealth from West to East is underway and relative valuations of international bonds reflect that transition. Mark Dampier of wealth managers Hargreaves Lansdown put it most succinctly: "The emerging markets have the savings; the developed world has the debt. Sooner or later, prices will reflect those facts."

forecast europe 2011

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-10/recession-risk-grows-for-euro-region-as-commission-reduces-2012-forecast.html

Merkel :Europa unida frente a la potencia de los emergentes

ubject: UE se prepara para embestida de CHINA: Merkel dice que Europa tiene que estar unida frente a la potencia de los emergentes
Merkel dice que Europa tiene que estar unida frente a la potencia de los emergentes

EFE – vie, 28 oct 2011

Berlín, 28 oct (EFE).- La canciller alemana, Angela Merkel, resaltó hoy que la Unión Europea debe estar cohesionada si quiere defender su posición frente a mercados emergentes que son cada vez más potentes.

"Si no nos unimos en Europa, no tendremos posibilidad alguna ante 1.300 millones de chinos, 1.200 millones de indios y ante muchas otras regiones en el mundo", dijo Merkel en un acto de su partido, la Unión Cristianodemócrata (CDU) celebrado en Baviera.

Merkel subrayó que países emergentes como Brasil, México y China han salido relativamente fortalecidos de la crisis.

"Se han convertido en motores de crecimiento, tienen una dinámica increíble", dijo Merkel, quien resaltó que esos mercados son actualmente una alternativa para los inversores, frente a la UE o EEUU.

Por ello, Merkel subrayó que los países europeos deben dejar de basar su crecimiento en el endeudamiento y asumir la senda de la consolidación.

TCHANGE EURO/DOLAR 1999-2001

Evolution du Taux de change de l'Euro en Dollar depuis1999 Voici une présentation mise à jour de l'évolution yoyo du cours de l'euro-dollar depuis la création de l'euro en 1999, puis sa mise en circulation en 2002. On observe clairement la forte chute de… Pour lire la suite cliquez ici

PETROLE+TAUX CHANGE EURO7DOLAR

Evolution du Prix du Pétrole et Taux de Change de l'Euro en Dollar Deux graphiques pour un premier coup d'œil clair, …, et rapide. On observe clairement ci-dessous, la corrélation entre la hausse du cours du baril de pétrole brut (Brent en dollars par baril) et… Pour lire la suite cliquez ici © 2011 over-blog.com - Tous droits réservés

NAFTA Is Starving Mexico

NAFTA Is Starving Mexico

Posted on: 20/10/2011 by Laura Carlsen

Laura Carlsen

Since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) became the law of the land, millions of Mexicans have joined the ranks of the hungry. Malnutrition is highest among the country's farm families, who used to produce enough food to feed the nation.

As the blood-spattered violence of the drug war takes over the headlines, many Mexican men, women, and children confront the slow and silent violence of starvation. The latest reports show that the number of people living in "food poverty" (the inability to purchase the basic food basket) rose from 18 million in 2008 to 20 million by late 2010.

About one-fifth of Mexican children currently suffer from malnutrition. An innovative measurement applied by the National Institute for Nutrition registers a daily count of 728,909 malnourished children under five for October 18, 2011. Government statistics report that 25 percent of the population does not have access to basic food.

Since the 2008 food crisis, there has been a three percent rise in the population without adequate access to food. The number of children with malnutrition is 400,000 kids above the goal for this year. Newborns show the highest indices of malnutrition, indicating that the tragedy begins with maternal health.

The dramatic change in Mexican eating habits since NAFTA is not only reflected in the millions who go to bed hungry. On the other side of the scale, Mexico has in just a decade and a half become second only to the United States worldwide in morbid obesity. Child obesity, overweight, and diabetes now constitute major health problems, alongside the more traditional problem of hunger.

It's not that the rich are getting too fat and the poor too thin, although inequality plays a role in the erosion of healthy diets for all. Fatness no longer represents abundance. It is the poor who drink cheap Coca Cola when they do not have access to potable water or who give their kids a bag of potato chips when local fresh food is no longer available. The International Journal of Obesity finds that worldwide the spread of what they call "the Western diet" ("high in saturated fats, sugar, and refined foods but low in fiber) has meant that "the burden of obesity is shifting towards the poor." The NAFTA generation reflects the paradigm so eloquently described by food researcher and activist Raj Patel of "stuffed and starved".

With another food crisis looming due to rising international prices, Mexico could face food riots as well as the spread of starvation and its consequences over the coming year.

Unless the riots turn violent or spark more widespread social upheaval as they did in Arab countries, it's not likely that the news media will pay any attention.

NAFTA's Food (In)security Model

Something has gone terribly wrong. The nation that was slated for prosperity when it signed NAFTA has become an international example of severe structural problems in the food chain, from how it produces its food to what and how much (or how little) it consumes.

Mexican malnutrition has its roots in the way NAFTA and other neoliberal programs forced the nation to move away from producing its own basic foods to a "food security" model. "Food security" posits that a country is secure as long as it has sufficient income to import its food. It separates farm employment from food security and ignores unequal access to food within a country.

The idea of food security based on market access comes directly from the main argument behind NAFTA of "comparative advantage." Simply stated, economic efficiency dictates that each country should devote its productive capacity to what it does best and trade liberalization will guarantee access across borders.

Under the theory of comparative advantage, most of Mexico was deemed unfit to produce its staple food crop, corn, since its yields were way below the average for its northern neighbor and trade partner. Therefore, Mexico should turn to corn imports and devote its land to crops where it supposedly had a comparative advantage, such as counter-seasonal and tropical fruits and vegetables.

Sounds simple. Just pick up three million inefficient corn producers (and their families) and move them into manufacturing or assembly where their cheap labor constitutes a comparative advantage. The cultural and human consequences of declaring entire peasant and indigenous communities obsolete were not a concern in this equation.

Seventeen years after NAFTA, some two million farmers have been forced off their land by low prices and the dismantling of government supports. They did not find jobs in industry. Instead most of them became part of a mass exodus as the number of Mexican migrants to the United States rose to half a million a year. In the first few years of NAFTA, corn imports tripled and the producer price fell by half.

Conversion to other crops turned out to take years in most cases. Prices were volatile and harvests unreliable. It was not feasible at all on many small, often rocky plots where corn guarantees a subsistence diet for farm families. Niche markets failed to grow to much more than 2 percent of total agricultural production.

The areas that adapted successfully to industrial agriculture and agroexport crops are characterized by flagrant violation of the labor rights of migrant farm workers, widespread pollution and water waste, and extreme concentration of land and resources.

For the hungry, this means that prices set on the international market determine who eats and who starves. Mexican consumers now pay more for tortillas and food in general. Price hikes on the international market push basic food out of reach for the millions of poor in the country.

Food Dependency

In post-NAFTA Mexico, 42 percent of the food consumed comes in from abroad. Before NAFTA, the country spent $1.8 billion dollars on food imports. It now spends a whopping $24 billion. Rural researcher Ernesto Ladrón de Guevara notes that in some basic foods, the dependency on imports is dramatic: 80 percent in rice, 95 percent in soybeans, 33 percent in beans, and 56 percent in wheat. The country is the world's number-one importer in the world of powdered milk. NAFTA decimated Mexico's once-thriving dairy sector, and the market takeover by transnational powdered milk is linked to the crisis in infant malnutrition.

Mexico imports 33 percent of its consumption, a figure that belies the reliance on imports because the sheer volume of consumption is so large. Ladrón de Guevara states that it has gone from importing around 250,000 tons before NAFTA to 13 million tons. Transnational traders often favor imports over national production because of the attractive credit arrangements offered by the United States, making it "a double business—importing corn and money."

The U.S. department of agriculture estimates that if current trends continue Mexico will acquire 80 percent of its food from other countries (mostly the United States). The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization calls a country food dependent when the cost of its imports exceeds 25 percent of total exports. Peasant farmer organizations have criticized the definition as ludicrous in an oil-producing country that nonetheless has seen serious erosion in its capacity to feed its people and guarantee access to basic foods for all.

Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

The corporate takeover of Mexico's food system has led to the food and health catastrophe. Transnational food corporations not only import freely into Mexican food markets, they are now the producers, exporters, and importers all in one, operating inside the country.

Since NAFTA, corporations have gobbled up human and natural resources on an almost unbelievable scale. Livestock production has moved from small farms for local markets to Tyson, Smithfield, and Pilgrims Pride. The massive use and contamination of water and land has led to health and environmental disasters across the country. Millions of jobs have been lost to concentration and industrialized farming methods.

Take the case of Corn Products International (CPI). The transnational filed  a NAFTA claim against the Mexican government in 2003, claiming a loss to its business due to a tax levied on high fructose corn syrup in beverages. Mexico's reason for imposing the tax was to save a sugarcane industry that provided jobs for thousands of citizens and played a crucial economic role in many regions. The government was also frustrated by its failure under NAFTA to access the highly protected U.S. sugar market.

A 2008 NAFTA tribunal ruled that Mexico had to pay $58.4 million to CPI. The government paid up on January 25, 2011. CPI posted $3.7 billion dollars in net sales the year of the decision. The fine paid by the Mexican government could have provided a year's worth of the basic food basket to more than 50,000 poor families.

CPI's wholly owned subsidiary Arancia Corn Products is among the most powerful food transnationals operating in the country, along with Maseca/Archers Daniel Midland and Cargill. Large agribusiness companies allegedly played a key role in the 2007 tortilla crisis by hoarding harvest as the international price went up, artificially drying up the national market and selling at nearly double the price they paid for the harvest. That crisis brought tens of thousands of poor Mexicans out into the streets to protest a 50 percent rise in the price of tortillas.

NAFTA and other FTAs give corporations the power to define what we eat, what we buy at the store, who will have a job and who won't, and whether a village sustained by local food production will survive or witness the end of generations of livelihoods.

Feed the Hungry, Fix the System

Mexican organizations have begun to come together after years of divisions to respond to the food crisis and fix the badly broken system. They recently succeeded in reforming the Mexican constitution to include the right to food. Now the battle is on to adapt the rural budget to make that right a reality.

Small farmer organizations have joined with family farm organizations in the United States and Canada to call for the renegotiation of NAFTA to remove basic foods and agricultural production from the agreement. They recognize, though, that the Obama administration's about-face in its stated commitments to fair trade reforms have left little political space for change.

Instead, peasant organizations in all three countries are looking to grassroots efforts and movements to fix the food system before the crisis worsens. As Mexican organizations struggle for programs to address threats to food and agriculture, U.S. organizations are seeing an opportunity to join their demands to the Occupy Wall Street movement across the country. One of the grievances listed in the OWS Declaration of the New York City General Assembly reads: "They (large corporations) have poisoned the food supply through negligence, and undermined the farming system through monopolization." Food activists are now bringing issues of corporate concentration in food, commodity speculation and price hikes, and free trade to the general protests.

Corporate control of the food system locked in by NAFTA not only starves people in Mexico. It locks in a profoundly unhealthy food system for the entire region. No one expects the situation to get better by itself. As the crisis deepens, citizen movements are again heating up and seeking each other out across borders to protect their health, their livelihoods and their rights. In the future, what we eat, how we eat, and if we eat will depend on their efforts.

Laura Carlsen is Director of the Americas Program of the Center for International Policy http://www.cipamericas.org/. based in Mexico City. She has written extensively on food and agriculture, and NAFTA. This article first appeared in Foreign Policy in Focus http://www.fpif.org/

    

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BLOG monetarism

http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com/

UE:PREDICTIONS A LA BAISSE

http://www.lesechos.fr/economie-politique/monde/actu/0201695529946-crise-l-ofce-met-en-garde-contre-une-austerite-penalisante-pour-la-croissance-233837.php

crisis: Mentiras sobre mentiras

Mentiras sobre mentiras

Desde hace algunas semanas las comparaciones entre la situación de la economía y de los mercados financieros de 2008 con la actual se han convertido en algo cotidiano. El colmo de esta similitud lo hemos visto en Trichet, que en 2008 subió los tipos de interés porque el precio del crudo se había disparado y, no contento con eso, en 2011 y por el mismo motivo los subió 2 veces…¡Si hasta hemos tenido estos días un "trader loco" como el de enero de 2008! Pero aparte de la anécdota, lo cierto es que el meollo (crisis financiera y de crédito) es similar y ante los mismos problemas vemos las mismas "soluciones" de los mismos personajes. Siguen confundiendo un problema de solvencia con uno de liquidez y lo intentan arreglar inyectando dinero a la banca y como dice D. Lacalle: "Mientras los gobiernos se quejan de que el mercado es cortoplacista, todas las medidas que anuncian están enfocadas al mercado financiero y a corto plazo. El efecto es cada vez más agresivo en poco tiempo y se disipa también muy rápido". Hasta BCE vuelve a pedir (¿por qué no lo exigen?), como entonces, que los bancos utilicen beneficios para recapitalizarse en lugar de dar dividendos y el Ecofin aboga por las fusiones bancarias, remiendo que ya aplicaron en los EUA en 2008.

Pero más allá de todo esto personalmente algo me preocupa más. El otro día el Wall Street Journal publicaba que un gran banco francés tenía problemas para tomar dólares porque la banca americana le había cortado sus líneas de crédito. Por supuesto el banco lo desmintió y el ministro de finanzas y el gobernador del Banco de Francia…y a los pocos días BCE –en unión con otros bancos centrales- convocó unas subastas en $ ilimitadas para inyectar capital a los bancos de la €zona que los necesiten, una medida extraordinaria claramente motivada por los problemas que había anunciado el periódico. Es decir, todos los desmentidos eran falsos. Hace 3 años escribí un artículo titulado Responsabilidad que decía:

No puede ser que el ciudadano de a pie que se ha visto afectado por una crisis que apenas entiende sea el único que sufra las consecuencias y se use el dinero de sus impuestos para que los que nos han llevado a la crisis y todos sus cómplices sigan en sus poltronas. ¿Tiene que recuperarse la confianza? Cierto, pero para ello no hay nada mejor que sinceridad y responsabilidad. Que nos digan la verdad de una vez y que no comprometamos los ingresos del estado en unos gestores que nos han llevado a esto, que no lo supieron prever ni arreglar. Sin exigir responsabilidades monetarias, políticas e incluso penales si llega el caso, considero que no se resolverá la falta de confianza en el sistema.

Y seguimos exactamente igual que entonces. No sólo nadie pagó por Lehman., es que nadie ha respondido por las mentiras sobre la solvencia de Grecia, ni sobre los stress test a la banca que en 2010 dieron por buenos los resultados de la banca irlandesa, ni del por qué Zapatero asegura que España "va a financiarse por sí misma" si sabe que está dependiendo de las compras de deuda de BCE ni por tantas y tantas falsedades. Como excepción la nueva jefa del FMI Largarde fue valiente y declaró nada más llegar al cargo que la banca europea debería recapitalizarse. Todos se le echaron encima, los bancos tenían -¡por supuesto!- suficiente capital…menos de un mes después La UE asume que tiene que recapitalizar más a sus bancos aunque evita hablar de cifras. Es decir, las autoridades vuelven a engañarnos sin ningún reparo y parecen ignorar que la confianza es la base de todo nuestro sistema económico.

El caso español es sintomático: nadie se cree la situación de nuestro sistema financiero que nos quieren vender. Y el principal responsable es Banco de España: Intentó colarle CCM a Unicaja hasta que una auditoría de la caja andaluza descubrió el agujero que o bien no supieron ver los inspectores o bien ocultaron. Algo similar pasó con Cajasur y estos días hemos descubierto que las necesidades de capital de la CAM, que hace poco más de 2 meses eran de 947 millones ahora son en torno a 20 veces más. Vean este copy-paste de la sala de prensa de la CAM del 15 de Julio de 2011 (a ver cuánto tardan en eliminar el vínculo) :

CAJA MEDITERRÁNEO NO NECESITA NINGUNA APORTACIÓN DE CAPITAL ADICIONAL
• La Entidad supera el test de estrés teniendo en cuenta las provisiones genéricas
• CAM ya está desarrollando con éxito su Plan de Recapitalización cumpliendo con estrictas medidas de ahorro de costes

Por otra parte, cada vez que se ha intervenido a alguna caja los beneficios se han convertido en pérdidas y la tasa de morosidad se ha multiplicado lo que demuestra que la labor supervisora de Banco de España y las auditorías son absolutamente ineficaces…o corruptas, o ambas cosas, ¿Cómo entonces creernos la tasa de morosidad oficial o los resultados que se publican? Y nuestra opinión al fin y al cabo no les importa pero sí les preocupa la de los grandes inversores que, por falta de confianza, están deshaciendo sus inversiones en España o poniendo capital sólo con notables descuentos sobre el valor en libros y están –quizás injustamente o quizás no- metiendo en el mismo saco a todas las empresas por el hecho de ser españolas pero, ¿Podemos culparles?

Y nos vuelven a engañar –o a pretenderlo- y nos dicen que la crisis de deuda es culpa de los especuladores y que el Ibex baja por los bajistas pero hace ya semanas que BCE está comprando bonos españoles y que están prohibidas nuevas posiciones cortas en la bolsa…y la crisis sigue ahí: tipos demasiado altos para poder conseguir fondos y el Ibex en mínimos desde 2009. No es un caso exclusivo español, las mentiras sobre mentiras que van acumulando unos y otros son globales pero si la única solución para la €zona son los €bonos y/o una mayor unión política y económica entre los diferentes países, la confianza será absolutamente necesaria. Y la sinceridad es el primer paso para conseguirla.

Plan de Obama tiene respaldo, con encuesta adjunta - Un abrazo GS.

GALLUP

September 20, 2011

Americans Favor Jobs Plan Proposals, Including Taxing Rich

Majority say Obama's jobs plan will help economy at least "a little"

by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans generally favor raising taxes on higher-income Americans and eliminating tax deductions for some corporations as ways of paying for President Obama's proposed jobs plan.

Obama laid out his proposals for the jobs bill in an address to Congress on Sept. 8, and sent the bill to Congress a few days later. Since then, the president has been pushing Congress to adopt the plan, although there are no signs yet as to when either House of Congress will begin to debate the bill.

The president also proposed raising taxes on wealthy Americans in his deficit-reduction proposal announced on Monday at the White House. Republican leaders have responded that this idea represents nothing more than "class warfare," but the current data show that the majority of Americans generally favor increasing taxes on the rich as a way to increase revenue.

Slightly more than half of rank-and-file Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favor the idea of eliminating certain corporate tax deductions as a way to pay for a jobs creation bill. Forty-one percent of Republicans favor raising taxes on higher-income Americans. Democrats strongly favor both proposals for paying for the cost of the jobs bill.

Americans Favor Almost All Proposals in Obama's Jobs Plan

Americans agree with a number of the job-creation proposals included in Obama's jobs plan -- specifically including the ideas of providing tax cuts to small businesses; providing additional funds for hiring teachers, police officers, and firefighters; and giving tax breaks to corporations for hiring the long-term unemployed. Slightly less than half favor reducing Social Security taxes for workers and employers.

While Democrats are generally more supportive than Republicans of these proposals to create jobs, at least half of Republicans favor four of the six proposals tested.

Republicans are particularly likely to favor the idea of tax cuts for small businesses and tax breaks for companies hiring the long-term unemployed, but also favor providing funds for hiring teachers, police officers, and firefighters, and providing funds for public works projects. Less than half favor the idea of reducing Social Security taxes or extending unemployment insurance benefits.

The Sept. 15-18 survey results reveal that a majority of Americans are at least modestly sanguine that the bill would help create jobs and help the economy more generally, with roughly one in four believing it would help both areas "a lot."

This is in line with Gallup's findings that a plurality of Americans want their representative in Congress to vote in favor of Obama's proposed jobs bill, based on a question that did not describe specific components of the bill.

Democrats are highly likely to say Obama's proposed plan will help create jobs and help the economy, while Republicans largely disagree.

Bottom Line

This is the second Gallup survey conducted in the last two weeks showing that the American public broadly supports Obama's jobs plan. A majority of Americans interviewed this past weekend believe the plan would help at least a little to create jobs and improve the economy.

Many of the proposals embedded in the plan receive majority support, and Americans strongly endorse the idea of paying for the plan by raising taxes on higher-income individual taxpayers and by eliminating tax deductions for some corporations. While Republicans are considerably less positive about the potential efficacy of the plan than are Democrats, a majority of the former favor a number of Obama's proposals, and also favor eliminating tax deductions for corporations to help fund the plan.

Survey Methods

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 15-18, 2011, with a random sample of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit www.gallup.com.

30 señales de que la economía de EE.UU. está a punto de ir en el inodoro

30 señales de que la economía de EE.UU. está a punto de ir en el inodoro

....Las cosas están a punto de ser absolutamente una pesadilla. Ninguna de las tendencias económicas de largo plazo que están vaciando nuestra economía han sido abordados y las noticias económicas más mal parece salir casi todos los días. Ahora se habla constantemente de la "próxima recesión" en los medios de comunicación. Pero, ¿la última recesión siempre verdad final? El número de buenos puestos de trabajo continúa disminuyendo, más tiendas están cerrando, los ingresos seguirán disminuyendo, la deuda de tarjetas de crédito y de deuda de préstamos estudiantiles se han disparado, el mercado inmobiliario se asemeja a un cadáver, el número de estadounidenses que viven en la pobreza sigue en aumento y la deuda pública se encuentra en niveles sin precedentes. Estamos perdiendo rápidamente la sangre, y casi todos nuestros líderes son demasiado corruptos o incompetentes no son capazes de hacer nada al respecto. La economía real de EE.UU.  está a punto de entrar en el baño, y si algo no se hace muy rápidamente vamos a experimentar un desastre económico total y completa en esta nación.

A los estadounidenses se les ha prometido una y otra vez que esta crisis económica es sólo "temporal" y que las cosas volverán pronto a la normalidad. Durante este ciclo de las próximas elecciones, los demócratas aseguran que tienen todas las respuestas y que si tan sólo los eligen todo estará bien. Los republicanos también juran tener todas las respuestas y que si tan sólo los eligen todo estará bien.

Así, ambas partes están mintiendo. Los planes económicos de los dos principales partidos políticos son una broma. Ninguno de ellos puede restaurar la prosperidad económica de esta nación.

Nuestros políticos podrían retrasar el colapso económico que viene con préstamos gigantescos montones de dinero y el bombeo de todo ese dinero en la economía. Pero robar a nuestros hijos y nuestros nietos no es exactamente una buena política económica.

Sí, la economía de EE.UU. está en mal momento, pero las cosas se van a poner aún peor. Los problemas a largo plazo que están destruyendo nuestra economía no se han fijado, y las fugas en nuestro barco va a seguir creciendo.

Los siguientes son los 30 signos de que la economía de EE.UU. está a punto de entrar en el baño ....

# 1 Un número creciente de estadounidenses desempleados se han convertido en tan desesperados que han comenzado a buscar trabajo en el extranjero. Por ejemplo, el número de estadounidenses que se presenten solicitudes para visas de trabajo temporal en Canadá se ha duplicado desde 2008. Otros estadounidenses están dispuestos a aprender idiomas extranjeros y los viajes al otro lado del mundo si eso es lo que se necesita para conseguir un trabajo decente. Sólo considere la siguiente cita de un de un informe reciente de EE.UU. Hoy en día 

Empresas de inserción laboral están reportando un aumento en el interés de los trabajadores estadounidenses en las economías en auge como Hong Kong, Singapur, China y, cada vez más, la India. Socios de caza, una firma de búsqueda ejecutiva, estima que se está haciendo un 50% a 100% más de hojas de vida no solicitados de Estados Unidos en busca de posiciones con sede en Asia que antes de la recesión.

Ver el articulo completo en:

 http://negociostruchos.blogspot.com/2011/09/30-senales-de-que-la-economia-de-eeuu.html

__._,_.___

Perlmutter, Schmidt y Riess, Premio Nobel de Física 2011

Perlmutter, Schmidt y Riess, Premio Nobel de Física 2011

Han ganado el premio por sus estudios sobre el descubrimiento de la expansión acelerada del universo

Estrella Digital/EP, 04/10/2011 | 13:29 h. 

Los astrónomos estadounidenses Saul Perlmutter, Brian P. Schmidt y Adam G. Riess son los ganadores del Premio Nobel de Física 2011 por sus estudios sobre el descubrimiento de la expansión acelerada del universo, informó este martes la Real Academia de Ciencias de Suecia.

Los tres científicos estadounidenses fueron reconocidos "por el descubrimiento de la expansión acelerada del universo a través de la observación de supernovas lejanas", informó la academia.

Las observaciones realizadas por estos astrónomos, asociados en dos equipos distintos, de la explosión de un tipo concreto de estrellas al final de su vida (supernova) y el análisis de la luz emitida en esos momentos les permitió demostrar que el universo crece de forma acelerada y no cada vez más despacio, como se creía.

Perlmutter, nacido en 1959 en EEUU, dirige el Proyecto Cosmológico Supernova, en la Universidad de Berkeley.

Su colega Schmidt, nacido asimismo en Estados Unidos en 1967 y con nacionalidad además australiana, es profesor de la Universidad Nacional de Australia.
El tercer galardonado, nacido en Washington en 1969, es profesor de astronomía y física en Baltimore (EEUU).

El anuncio del galardón sigue al premio Nobel de Medicina otorgado ayer, que compartieron el estadounidense Bruce Beutler, el franco-luxemburgués Jules Hoffmann y el canadiense Ralph Steinman, fallecido el pasado viernes.

A estos anuncios seguirán mañana el Nobel de Química, el de Literatura el jueves, y el de la Paz el viernes, mientras que el de Economía se dará a conocer el lunes.

La entrega de los Nobel se realizará, de acuerdo a la tradición, en dos ceremonias paralelas, en Oslo para el de la Paz y en Estocolmo los restantes, el día 10 de diciembre, aniversario de la muerte de Alfred Nobel.

Fwd: [mpep] Des vidéos pour comprendre le système bancaire et financier

http://www.m-pep.org
------------------------------
DES VIDÉOS POUR COMPRENDRE LE SYSTÈME BANCAIRE ET FINANCIER

Par le Mouvement politique d'éducation populaire (M'PEP).

Le 10 octobre 2011.

L'association Réséda est composée de quelques journaliste indépendants indignés de la manière dont la « grande » presse rend compte de la crise du système bancaire, monétaire et financier. Elle a donc décidé de monter une série de vidéos à partir de personnalités non « orthodoxes », afin de mieux comprendre la situation actuelle.

Elle prépare en outre, avec une société coopérative de production, un DVD qui reprendra le même thème avec pour objectif de le vendre à des télés et de l'utiliser comme support dans des réunions militantes.

4 vidéos pour mieux comprendre la crise bancaire, monétaire et financière :

• Crise 2008 - La création monétaire
  
• Crise 2008 - Financiarisation de l'économie
  
• Crise 2008 - Endettement généralisé
  
• Crise 2008 - Quelques perspectives
  

ROUBINI MIRADA DE AL EN RGE 360

 

 

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Friday, December 3

• UN holds Climate Change Conference in Cancun, Mexico (November 29-December 10). (Cancun Conference: High Hopes for Small Victories)
• U.S. reports employment situation for November. (U.S. Private Payrolls Rise, Continuing Recent Labor Market Improvement)
• Canada reports unemployment rate for November. (Canadian Labor Market Continues to Moderate in October)
• EZ: ECB president Jean Claude Trichet gives speech on European economy. (Prospect of ECB Intervention Fuels Relief Rally in Eurozone)
• UK, EZ, Germany, France and Italy release services PMIs for November. (UK Q3 Growth Unrevised at 0.8% q/q; What Is the Outlook?)
• Switzerland reports November CPI. (Swiss National Bank Maintains Expansionary Monetary Policy, Lowers Growth Outlook)
• Malaysia reports trade balance for October. (Malaysian Export Growth Continues to Slow in September on Weak Electronics Demand)
• Colombia releases monetary policy meeting minutes. (What Is the Probability that Colombia's Central Bank Will Cut Rates?)
• Mexico reports consumer confidence for November. (How Fast Will Mexico's Economy Decelerate in H2 2010? What About 2011?)

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Saturday, November 4

• Colombia reports November CPI. (What Is the Inflation Outlook for Colombia in 2010?)

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Sunday, December 5

• Egypt holds stage two of parliamentary elections. (Egypt's Election—Free and Fair?)

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Monday, December 6

• Russia reports November CPI (December 6-7). (Food Prices Drive Russian Inflation)
• Australia holds monetary policy meeting for December. (Are Higher Terms of Trade Leading the Reserve Bank of Australia to Raise Rates?)
• The Philippines reports November CPI. (Will Philippine Inflation Remain Tame?)
• Chile reports economic activity for October. (Chile's Economic Activity: How Strong Will the Recovery Be?)
• Ecuador reports November CPI. (What Is the Outlook for the Ecuadorian Economy?)

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Tuesday, December 7

• The EU and Russia hold summit meeting in Brussels, Belgium. (Can EU-Russia Ties Shift From Energy Focus to Modernization?)
• Canada announces monetary policy decision. (How Long Will the Bank of Canada Remain on Hold?)
• UK reports industrial and manufacturing production for October. (UK Q3 Growth Unrevised at 0.8% q/q; What Is the Outlook?)
• Germany reports factory orders for October. (German Industrial Production Gives Further Evidence of Slowing Economic Activity)
• Iceland reports Q3 GDP. (Iceland's Economy Still in Deep Recession)
• Taiwan releases export data for November. (Taiwan's Export Growth Rebounds in October)
• Chile reports November CPI, trade balance. (Chile's Economic Activity: How Strong Will the Recovery Be? and Chile's External Accounts: Any Improvement?)

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Wednesday, December 8

• Canada reports housing starts for November. (Do Vulnerabilities Loom as Canadian Housing Begins to Cool?)
• Germany reports current account, trade balance and industrial production for October. (German Exports Post Strong Growth in September, Slowdown Ahead and German Industrial Production Gives Further Evidence of Slowing Economic Activity)
• Belgium reports final Q3 GDP. (Belgium GDP Growth Decelerates to 0.5% q/q in Q3 2010)
• New Zealand holds monetary policy meeting for December. (How Much Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Tighten in 2010?)
• South Korea holds monetary policy meeting for December. (South Korea Hikes Rates in November as Inflation Risks Outweigh Capital Inflow Challenges)
• Malaysia reports industrial production for October. (Malaysia's IP Growth Shows Slight Increase on Favorable Base Effects)
• Mexico reports trade balance for October. (Are Mexico's External Accounts Improving? What About Export Diversification?)
• Brazil announces reference rate target, reports IPCA inflation for November. (Will Brazil Resume Tightening in 2011? and How Long Will Brazil's Inflation Outlook Keep on Deteriorating?)

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Thursday, December 9

• Canada releases New Housing Price Index for October. (Do Vulnerabilities Loom as Canadian Housing Begins to Cool?)
• UK announces monetary policy decision. (UK Quantitative Easing: When and How Much?)
• EZ: ECB publishes monthly report on economic situation. (Post-2013 European Stabilization Mechanism: Collective Action Clauses and Preferred Creditor Status)
• Various European countries report final Q3 GDP. (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Portugal)
• Finland reports Q3 GDP. (Finland Macro View: GDP Growth at 1.9% q/q in Q2 2010)
• Germany reports final November CPI. (Germany: Inflation Reaches Highest Level Since October 2008)
• Czech Republic reports November CPI. (Czech Central Bank Has Europe's Lowest Nominal Policy Rate—Will It Last?)
• China releases trade data for November. (Chinese Trade Surplus Swells in October)
• Brazil reports Q3 GDP. (How Fast Is Brazil Decelerating in H2 2010? What About 2011?)
• Mexico reports consumer prices for November. (Will Mexico's Inflation Remain Benign in H2 2010? What About 2011?)
• Peru announces reference rate for December. (When Will the Peruvian Central Bank Resume Monetary Tightening?)
• Egypt reports November CPI. (Egypt's Inflation Remains Unchanged in October: Is Up the Only Way to Go?)
• South Africa reports current account for Q3. (South Africa's Current Account Narrows in Q2 2010 and South Africa's Trade Balance Sinks Back to Deficit in October)

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Friday, December 10

• The EU and India hold summit meeting in Brussels, Belgium. (Will India and the EU Expands Economic Cooperation)
• U.S. reports international trade for October. (U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows in September)
• Canada reports international merchandise trade for October. (Canada's Current Account Deficit Widens Further in Q3)
• Italy reports final Q3 GDP, trade data. (Italy: Q3 GDP Growth Disappoints at 0.2% q/q and Will Exports Continue to Drive Italy's Economic Recovery?)
• Turkey reports Q3 GDP. (Turkey Macro View: Double-Digit GDP Growth in Q2 Positively Surprises)
• China holds Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing (December 10-12). (What's China's Plan for 2011-15?)
• India reports industrial production for October. (Can Improving Domestic Demand Curtail India's Industrial Production Slowdown?)
• Mexico reports gross fixed investment for September. (Are Mexico's External Accounts Improving? What About Export Diversification?)
• Venezuela reports November CPI. (What Is the Outlook for Inflation in Venezuela?)

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RGE Upcoming Client Events:        

• December 14: RGE 2011 Outlook Call with Nouriel Roubini and RGE Team
• December 16: Asset Allocation in 2011 for Pensions and Family Offices Event at RGE's NY Office with Nouriel Roubini and Gina Sanchez, Director of Equity and Asset Allocation Strategy, along with three guest panelists specializing in Credit Funds, Equities Funds, and Event Driven Funds – clients only, call your account representative.
• December 17: RGE 2011 Eurozone Outlook Call with RGE Analysts
• January 10: RGE 2011 Latin America Outlook Call with RGE Analysts
• January 11: RGE 2011 Asia Outlook Call with RGE Analysts
• January 12: RGE 2011 Middle East and Africa Call with RGE Analysts

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WELCOME TO ROUBINI MOBILE: Now research on roubini.com is automatically customized for your mobile device. All RGE content - Critical Issues, Economic Research and Market Strategy - as well as email newsletters such as our Daily Top 5, Focus Reports and the RGE 360 are now optimized for your smart phone.   

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RGE Economic Research:

• Front-Loaded Stimulus, Back-Loaded Austerity: The Optimal Fiscal Austerity Path and the Risks of Other Routes by Nouriel Roubini
• The Zone of Austerity: Political Risk Stalking the Eurozone by Michael Moran
• Nordic Unemployment: Explaining the Divergent Trends During the Crisis by Mikko Forss
• The 'Lame Duck' Session: Lots of Quacking, But Can It Pass Legislation? by Michael Moran and Prajakta Bhide
• North America Focus Which Cat Among the Pigeons? by Arun Motianey
• Europe Focus Ireland's Political Game; Germany's Economic Slowdown; UK's Banking Vulnerabilities by RGE's Europe Analyst Team
• Asia Focus Asia/Pacific Central Banks Chart the 2011 Course by Mikka Pineda, Adam Wolfe, Arpitha Bykere, and Michael Manetta
• Comparing Spain With Ireland and Other PIIGS: Better in Some Ways, More at Risk in Others by Elisa Parisi-Capone, Christian Menegatti, and Nouriel Roubini

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Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

• Front-Loaded Austerity in the UK by Nouriel Roubini
• Comparing Spain With Ireland and Other PIIGS: Better in Some Ways, More at Risk in Others by Elisa Parisi-Capone, Christian Menegatti, and Nouriel Roubini
• An Orderly Market-Based Approach to the Restructuring of Eurozone Sovereign Debts Obviates the Need for Statutory Approaches by Nouriel Roubini
• Roubini's 'Crisis Economics' – NYT Top 10 Books of 2010
• Nouriel Roubini #12 on Foreign Policy's Top 100 Global Thinkers

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RGE Analyst's EconoMonitor

• Can World Cup Frenzy Keep Qatar Growing After Gas Momentum Fades? by Rachel Ziemba
• Germany: Largesse Oblige? by Michael Moran
• Nature of the Nordic Recessions by Mikko Forss
• RGE's Wednesday Note – A Spanish Inquisition by Elisa Parisi-Capone, Christian Menegatti and Nouriel Roubini
• Will the 'Lame Duck' Lay an Egg? by Michael Moran and Prajakta Bhide
• Good Reads, November 29 by Michael Moran

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U.S. EconoMonitor

• Bailout Recipients by Barry Ritholtz
• Virtuous Cycle: Will NFP Lead to More Capex, Hiring? by Barry Ritholtz
• Jobless Claims Rise, But the Trend Still Looks Encouraging by James Picerno
• The Big Economic Story, and Why Obama Isn't Telling It by Robert Reich
• Will the 'Lame Duck' Lay an Egg? by Michael Moran and Prajakta Bhide
• And this Is Going to Lead to High Inflation? by Menzie Chinn
• The Administration's 'Communication Problem' by Mark Thoma
• Improving Holiday Sales Reflect Economic Recovery by Barry Ritholtz
• Tax Hikes, Status Competitiveness, and Social Stratification by Yves Smith
• National Fiscal Hypocrisy Week by Robert Reich
• Arithmetic of Decline: America's Lost Decade for Jobs by Fabius Maximus

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Europe EconoMonitor

• Pettis on Eurozone Pathways and Endgames by Yves Smith
• The Rough Politics of European Adjustment by Michael Pettis
• Germany Is Old Too by Claus Vistesen
• Another Lesson in How Not to Go About Things from the EU Commission by Edward Hugh
• Will the Irish Crisis Spread to Italy? Paolo Manasse and Giulio Trigilia
• The Eurozone Endgame: Four Scenarios by Peter Boone and Simon Johnson
• Cross-Border Deleveraging and the Shifts in Europe's Bargaining Game by Models & Agents
• Turkmenistan Signals Readiness for Nabucco by Robert M. Cutler
• Numbers by Marcus Svedberg

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Emerging Markets Monitor

• Turkey: The Desperate House-Economist by Emre Deliveli
• Chinese Inflation and European Defaults by Michael Pettis
• How China's Inflation Policy Will Shape the Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate by Edwin G. Dolan
• Brazil: The Challenges Facing the New Minister by Marcio Garcia

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Finance & Markets Monitor

• Servicer-Driven Foreclosures: The Perfect Crime? by Yves Smith
• Resilient Markets by Barry Ritholtz
• Pricing Corporate Governance by Lucian Bebchuk
• Weighing the Week Ahead: Fundamentals Versus Fear by Jeffrey Miller
• Pondering the Next Phase of the Debt Crisis by James Picerno

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Global Macro EconoMonitor

• Europe and China: Is This Déjà vu All Over Again? by James Hamilton
• Listening to Voices: The IMF's Dialogue with Civil Society by Caroline Atkinson

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A successful marcus evans annual Alternative Investments Summit 2010 (www.alternativeinvestmentssummit.com) ended this week; held at the Red Rock Casino Resort & Spa in Las Vegas, NV.