Bernanke: jugar con límite de deuda EEUU podría terminar mal

Jefe Fed: jugar con límite de deuda EEUU podría terminar mal

martes 14 de junio de 2011 14:51 GYT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - El presidente de la Reserva Federal, Ben Bernanke, advirtió el martes que si no se sube el techo de la deuda de Estados Unidos de 14,3 billones de dólares se corre el riesgo de una pérdida de confianza en la solvencia crediticia del país que podría ser desastrosa.

Bernanke dijo que ante la ausencia de una rápida resolución en la batalla sobre el límite de deuda, Estados Unidos podría perder su preciada calificación crediticia "AAA", mientras que el especial estatus del dólar como moneda de reserva podría dañarse.

"Incluso una corta suspensión de pagos de capital o intereses en las obligaciones de deuda del Tesoro podría causar severos trastornos en los mercados financieros y en el sistema de pagos", dijo Bernanke en comentarios preparados para un evento auspiciado por el Comité para un Presupuesto Federal Responsable.

La falta de acción podría también "crear dudas fundamentales sobre la solvencia crediticia de Estados Unidos, y perjudicar el rol especial del dólar y de los bonos del Tesoro en los mercados globales en el largo plazo", agregó Bernanke.

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What are the social implications of economic collapse?

by Simon Black · View Comments

June 14, 2011
New York City
For the last few days, we've been having an important discussion about the magnitude of the economic challenges in the west; if you didn't read yesterday's letter, I really encourage you to do so before proceeding because it's important to understand why the west has truly passed the point of no return.
Simply put, the United States and much of Europe are borrowing an extraordinary amount of money now just to pay interest on the money they've already borrowed. They cannot even self-fund their mandatory entitlement programs without going into the hole, and their options are limited:
Option 1: Continue borrowing, keep the party going.
As long as the government CAN do this, they WILL do this.  Regardless of their intentions, though, more debt only worsens the situation, creating higher borrowing costs in the long run, and even more debt. As this happens, the pool of buyers begins to dry up, especially from overseas.
Option 2: Inflation
The more buyers stop purchasing Treasury securities, the more the Federal Reserve will mop up the excess liquidity. In doing so, the Fed essentially conjures up money and loans it to the government.
No matter what the government monkey statistics say, this is inflationary, plain and simple. The more money they print, the greater the level of inflation in the long-term. Meanwhile, as foreigners simultaneously reduce their US dollar holdings, this inflation will become more acutely felt in the US.
Option 3: Austerity
There's going to come a time when the US government is forced to face its economic reality and make some incredibly deep cuts that would be felt across society, from Wall Street and the military industrial complex to project housing on the other side of the tracks.
Option 4: Default
Eventually, the debt burden is simply going to be too much, and the most obvious solution will be to default. Politicians will make China out to be the enemy and they will probably invent a war just to have an excuse to default on Chinese owned debt. Americans will wave the flag and celebrate defaulting on their enemies.
Option 5: Economic Cannibalism
In the best traditions of Atlas Shrugged, the government will continue its persecution of the productive class– professionals, investors, entrepreneurs, and skilled workers. Existing taxes will rise, new taxes will be created, trade barriers will be enacted, and a maze of cost prohibitive regulations will be passed.
The first option (keeping the party going) is what has been happening for years. Politicians make small concessions to show they're "serious" about fiscal discipline, cutting laughably small programs while dumping hundreds of billions of dollars into wars and entitlement programs.
The worse the debt situation becomes, though, the higher the borrowing costs become, and the worse the debt situation becomes. It's not an enviable position. Existing lenders will continue backing away from the US Treasury market, giving option 1 a half-life measured in months at best.
In the longer term, only options 2-5 remain: inflation, austerity, default, and cannibalism. Each of these remaining options will shake the financial system to its core. More importantly, each of these has the power to create widespread social upheaval.
When inflation eats away at a family's already meager standard of living, when austerity eliminates the benefits to which recipients have grown accustomed, when default vanquishes a retiree's savings, when high taxes make workers feel like they're just government serfs– this is when the real turmoil will begin:
* Rising crime: devoid of a job or means to support their families, people will turn to crime out of desperation
* Class warfare: with dividing lines drawn between have's vs. have-not's, it will become unpopular and even dangerous to be successful
* Corruption: low-level public service officials will look to supplement their income through bribery and kickbacks
* Black economy: An underground, cash-only (probably gold or foreign currency) economy will emerge with people getting paid in envelopes
* Censorship: Of course they'll blame it on national security, but the idea will be to prevent public disparaging of government policy
* War: The government will need another major event to distract people from the real problems
* Protests/Riots: This is when things turn bloody
* Police state conditions: The government will close ranks and send the cops out to show all the little people who's really in charge
There are a number of other manifestations, and many are already showing signs of emergence. The US and European police states are alive and well. Crime is on the rise.
In Europe, cops are doing battle in the streets with their citizens. Think it can't happen in the US? Remember tanks in the streets during the LA riots? Remember New Orleans? Remember any number of G8/G20 protests?
Here's the bottom line: all you have to do is glance at the headlines to see what happens when you strip people of their livelihood, of their ability to put food on the table for their families.

The US has been able to kick the can down the road with the most blunt social implications simply because the country benefits so much from a US-oriented financial system. This is coming to an end very, very quickly.
As a rule of thumb, the greater the economic distortion, the harder the collapse. The US economy has been in a fantasy world for so long, and when its dominant primacy is yanked away, the collapse will be at freefall speed.
Listen… I'm not talking about the end of the world here, I'm talking about difficult times ahead, and the things that go beyond economics. It's time to face facts and look at how society will change (and has already changed).
Tomorrow, I'd like to write more about what we can do now. Meanwhile, please tell me what you think about this– how do you see society changing from this reset of the financial system?

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TLC Peru_USA Datos expo-impo 2006-2011

 

AÑO                     EXP           IMP             SALDO

TOTAL 2006     2,926.8     5,880.4     -2,953.5
TOTAL 2007     4,119.8     5,271.6     -1,151.8
TOTAL 2008     6,183.0     5,812.5       370.5
TOTAL 2009     4,918.8     4,223.3       695.5
TOTAL 2010     6,754.3     5,056.9     1,697.3
TOTAL 2011     2,602.1     2,106.6       495.5

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c3330.html

Efecto TLC Aumento de comercio USA-Perú y paso de superavit peruano en el 2006 de 2,953.5 millones dolares a un creciente deficit, en el 2010 fue de 1697 millones.

Qué nos dirán los que argumentaron que el TLC favorecería las exportaciones peruanas a USA. Estas cayeron miéntras las importaciones aumentaron. Quien negocio, Mercedez Araoz ?

Los que cuestionaron el TLC fueron avasallados por decenas de especialistas que defendían los términos del acuerdo, todavía se puede descargar del Ministerio d Comercio Exterior los estudios que justificaron el trato. Nos vendieron la idea, incumplida del aumento de las exportaciones.

".. el TLC constituye una importante oportunidad para que el Perú expanda sustancialmente su comercio exterior con el fin de contribuir a mejorar la calidad de vida de los peruanos."

"A cambio de la importante ampliación de mercados externos que obtendrá, después de firmado el TLC, el Perú deberá asumir la reducción en la recaudación fiscal como consecuencia de la eliminación del cobro de aranceles a las importaciones procedentes de Estados Unidos."

"Se está buscando mejorar la competitividad de los agricultores brindando una plataforma de servicios que refuerce aspectos tecnológicos, sanitarios y de asistencia comercial, como parte de un Programa Nacional de Reconversión y Compensación Agraria. Complementariamente a dicho plan, se ha planteado otorgar subsidios específicos a los tres principales productos que pueden
ser afectados, algodón, maíz y trigo."
http://www.tlcperu-eeuu.gob.pe/index.php

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The Catalysts Start to Catalyze

by John Rubino on June 15, 2011

For a couple of years now it's been clear that the world was about to fall apart, with the only question being which local failure turns out to be the catalyst for a systemic breakdown. So many things were on the verge of blowing up…yet none of them did. The world's governments have engaged in a heroic period of "extend and pretend" that has kept the system together longer than seemed possible.

But now the game seems to be ending. It's still not clear which bomb will go off first, but a bunch of fuses have gotten very short indeed. Here's a survey of old crises that are finally coming to a head:

California and Illinois
These two U.S. states are bankrupt by any reasonable definition, but are somehow managing to pay most of their bills. Their political classes are dominated by public sector unions, so neither has tried the tough medicine of places like Wisconsin or New Jersey. Instead, they've used a combination of much higher taxes (Illinois) and accounting gimmicks as a means to much higher taxes (California) to delay the inevitable reckoning.
Both are reaping what they've sown. Illinois, after raising corporate and income taxes, now faces an exodus of businesses to more friendly climes like Indiana and Texas. The governor is doling out tax breaks to keep major employers, a practice that 1) sends those new taxes right back out the door and 2) leads every other company to demand the same treatment. Latest on the list is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the state's biggest financial institution. No end in sight but bankruptcy.
California desperately wants to raise taxes but can't get an increase through the legislature. Thanks to a recently passed referendum, lawmakers don't get paid unless they produce a budget, so they'll do so pretty soon. But without more tax revenues it will fill the gaping deficit with gimmicks like delayed payments. No one will be fooled. The only question now is whether there's room in Texas for all the California companies that will soon be leaving. Again, no end in sight but bankruptcy. Short munis and pretty much anything dependent on consumer spending, since the resulting public sector layoffs will devastate demand for cars and other luxuries.
The Middle East
As country after country blows up, the U.S. finds itself sucked into increasing numbers of "humanitarian" military operations that are, of course, really about protecting the flow of oil. It won't work. An oil crisis of some sort is coming. Buy energy stocks, from oil to clean tech, short everything else.
The U.S. budget
With America borrowing, in effect, its entire military budget from China, unemployment headed back to double digits even by Washington's fraudulent accounting, and neither party willing to really address the military/entitlements complex, the debt will keep piling up until it can't. The rating agencies are now, belatedly, threatening the US AAA rating, the loss of which would either drive interest rates back to their historical average of 5%-6% (sending interest costs out of control) or force the Fed to start buying all the bonds issued by Treasury (sending the money supply out of control). Result: imminent currency crisis. Buy gold and silver, short Treasuries.
Housing
After seeming to stabilize for a few months, housing is tanking again. Sales and prices are down, underwater mortgages are surging, home builder confidence is at new lows, and poor innocent Bank of America is stuck with trillions of bad paper that it's not accounting for. As home prices accelerate to the downside, look for huge bank write-downs, massive stock volatility, and maybe another bailout. Short anything in the financial sector.
Europe
Ah, the euro. Greece is imploding…riots in the street, the government is falling, and the Bundesbank and ECB can't agree on how to handle the coming default. This one is coming to a head very soon, to be followed by the other PIIGS countries — assuming there's still a Eurozone to try to save. Short the European banks with the most Greek paper, load up on precious metals.
Does it matter which blows up first?
Not any more. They're all so close that just their prospect is enough to send capital running for cover. It's a nasty year no matter what. But then comes the next stimulus plan, which complicates the whole "short the world" thesis. The markets have been consistently fooled by this kind of thing, and there's no reason to believe that QE3 won't ignite another rally in risk assets. So monitor those shorts and be ready to close them out when CNBC starts hinting at a big pending announcement from Bernanke or Geithner. Shift the proceeds into precious metals, which will absolutely rocket when the next wave of fake liquidity hits the market.

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mining tax

More mining tax, royalty hikes 'inevitable' – Control Risks

TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – More governments in Africa and elsewhere, especially newly elected ones, will likely look at raising mining taxes and royalties amid historically high commodity prices, Control Risks senior analyst for Africa Thomas Wilson said in an interview.

"I think it's inevitable. And it's always been like that, it's always followed the mineral cycle, he said on the sidelines of a MineAfrica seminar in Toronto.

"Governments look at commodity prices and say 'we should be getting more out of this'."

The trend is also a product of the changes in governments, particularly when more democratic regimes replace what may have been "more autocratic" previous governments, he said.

"So they come in on a popular mandate where they have made the electorate promises to look at contracts that were signed in the past with other governments that were potentially, I suppose, less scrupulous when it came to negotiating with foreign investors."

Mining companies and investors are increasingly edgy about potential changes in government policy in the regions where they operate, as nations seek ways to benefit more from record commodity prices.

A trend towards resource nationalism around the world is probably the biggest risk facing mining companies, Xstrata CEO Mick Davis said in December.

Last year, then-Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd proposed a 40% resources super profits tax, and although the country backed off the plan it has now released draft laws for a 30% tax on coal and iron ore miners.

Also this week, reports emerged that the Tanzanian government is planning a windfall tax on the mining industry, sending shares in LSE-listed African Barrick Gold lower.

And Mining companies operating in Peru also declined sharply on Monday after left-leaning Ollanta Humala, a military officer who had talked about making sure Peruvians benefit more from the country's mineral wealth, was elected President.

Guinea, under new President Alpha Conde, has also said it will relook at the country's mining code, followed by a review of all existing mining contracts.

Reviews of outdated laws and a push by governments to be more active in their resources sectors are not necessarily a bad thing, Wilson commented.

"But they must resist the temptation to turn reviews of laws and contracts into a purely revenue generating exercise."

DEALS TO SURVIVE

Mining companies operating in higher-risk areas are also not helping themselves or their shareholders by squeezing all possible concessions out of governments when negotiating mining contracts and agreements, Webber Wentzel partner Nkikia Moshesh said at the same event.

Agreements that seem skewed in the foreign investor's favour might look good on paper but run the risk of coming under fire from future governments and their voters, she commented.

Regimes change, commodity prices rise, "and people end up saying 'we are not extracting enough value from this company'," Moshesh said.

"Mining projects are intended to be of a long term nature. You want to conclude agreements that are going to survive, and preferably will survive changes in government, changes in political thinking."

ALMIGHTY STINK

African Barrick Gold, the biggest producer in Tanzania, and South Africa's AngloGold Ashanti both insisted this week that their tax positions in the country are protected by existing mineral development agreements, and could not be affected by a new windfall tax.

But there few new mines coming onstream in Tanzania and there is relatively little exploration investment as well, commented Africa mining consultant with political risk consultancy Menas Associates Christopher Melville.

"If the government is serious about the windfall tax it can have no other targets than the producing mines operated by the big players," he said.

Although the tax reports could just be "smoke and mirrors" related to internal party politics, it is also possible that the government is trying to use the threat of an imposed tax to persuade mining companies to renegotiate contracts voluntarily, Melville suggested.

"Trying to push it through...would cause an almighty stink with the majors given the stabilisation clauses in their development agreements.

"The government surely has no stomach for such a stink and may rather hope that unsettling announcements will be enough to encourage the companies to renegotiate voluntarily."

Either way, this week's reports are clearly negative for investor interest in Tanzania, he said.

"The government cannot afford to kill the goose."

Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter

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