CITIGROUP: SALVATAJE

stados Unidos inyectará 20.000 millones de dólares en el banco Citigroup

El plan de ayuda a uno de los colosos financieros del país incluye garantías, y acceso a la liquidez y al capital para "apoyar la estabilidad del mercado" | Las acciones del grupo subían más del 50

Redacción de Economía. (FECOM).- El Gobierno de EE.UU. inyectará 20.000 millones de dólares en el Citigroup, uno de los mayores bancos del país y que ha sido sacudido por la crisis financiera, para "apoyar la estabilidad del mercado", indicó la Reserva Federal (Fed) en un comunicado.

Rescate millonario de Citigroup Efe

---

PALABRAS CLAVE

Citigroup, Washington, The New York Times, George W, Pacífico, Bush, Lima, Casa Blanca, Dana Perino, Wall Street, Tesoro

El acuerdo para el rescate del Citigroup se produjo el domingo y fue anunciado conjuntamente a última hora de la noche por la Fed, el Departamento del Tesoro y la Aseguradora Federal de Depósitos (FDIC, por sus siglas en inglés), tras intensas reuniones en Washington.

Las acciones del grupo bancario estadounidense subían más del 50 por ciento después de conocerse esta noticia. Pocos minutos después de abrir los mercados en Wall Street, las acciones de Citigroup subían el 52,5 por ciento y se situaban en 5,66 dólares por título, 1,89 dólares más que al cierre del viernes.

El compromiso alcanzado pretende dar al Citigroup "un conjunto de garantías, acceso a la liquidez y el capital", porque el Gobierno "se ha comprometido a apoyar la estabilidad del mercado financiero, requisito previo para el restablecimiento de un vigoroso crecimiento económico", indica la Fed.

El Tesoro de EE.UU. y la FDIC protegerán contar eventuales pérdidas del banco por un monto de 306.000 millones de dólares en préstamos y valores respaldados por bienes raíces inmobiliarios y comerciales y otros activos del banco, que seguirán perteneciendo al balance del Citigoup.

El Tesoro también invertirá 20.000 millones de dólares en el banco por medio del plan de rescate de activos a cambio de acciones preferenciales.

"Con estas operaciones, el Gobierno de EE.UU. está tomando las medidas necesarias para fortalecer el sistema financiero y proteger a los contribuyentes y a la economía" nacionales, indica el comunicado de la Reserva Federal.

La institución federal reitera que va a seguir usando "todos los recursos necesarios para preservar la solidez de nuestras instituciones bancarias y promover el proceso de reparación y recuperación y para la gestión de riesgos".

Plan posible para otros bancos
Según indicó el diario 'The New York Times' en su edición electrónica del domingo, el plan aplicado al Citigroup "podría servir de modelo para otros bancos" y marcaría un cambio en la oscilante misión de rescate financiero del Gobierno.

El Departamento del Tesoro había propuesto adquirir los activos tóxicos de los bancos, pero en un giro a su estrategia comenzó a inyectar capitales directamente a las instituciones financieras, indicó el periódico.

Citigroup, uno de los principales bancos de EE.UU., perdió la mitad de su valor en la bolsa la semana pasada debido a una crisis de confianza de los inversionistas, pese a que los ejecutivos aseguran que la institución mantiene condiciones financieras sólidas.

El banco tiene operaciones en más de un centenar de países, cuenta con activos superiores a los dos billones de dólares y trabajan en el grupo 350.000 personas.

La pasada semana, medios de prensa indicaron que Citigoup planea despedir a 50.000 empleados en los próximos meses, que se sumarían a los 10.000 despidos anunciados por la entidad el pasado 16 de octubre.

Citigroup perdió 10.421 millones de dólares en los primeros nueve meses del año, de los que 2.815 correspondieron al tercer trimestre, cuando continuó con sus anotaciones multimillonarias para amortizar sus inversiones incobrables en deuda hipotecaria.

Las pérdidas acumuladas por Citigroup en los nueve primeros meses del año contrastan con los 13.450 millones de dólares que ganó en igual periodo de 2007.

Big Three’s Troubles May Touch Financial Sector

Articulo sobre crisis automovil USA

By ZACHERY KOUWE and LOUISE STORY

Published: November 23, 2008

To the long list of troubles plaguing the financial industry, add three big ones — make that Big Three ones.

Ford Scion Looks Beyond Bailout to a Green Agenda (November 24, 2008)

Managing Globalization: Do Banks Win in an Auto Bailout?

The foundering Detroit automakers owe more than $100 billion to their bankers and bondholders, and Wall Street is starting to wonder how much of that will be paid back.

With Congress balking at a rescue for the auto industry, and Chrysler and General Motors warning that they could face bankruptcy without one, investors are worrying about financial companies’ exposure to the Big Three, as well as to automotive suppliers and dealers.

The intertwining troubles of the auto and financial industries were partly behind the sharp sell-off in financial stocks last week, when banking shares fell to their lowest levels since the economic crisis broke out and questions swirled about the future of Citigroup.

“It’s pretty clear there was a cause and effect,” said Wilbur L. Ross Jr., a prominent financier who specializes in distressed industries and has invested in auto parts companies.

Big banks say that their exposure to the auto industry is relatively small and that in any case most of the loans are secured by vehicles or other assets, which would help minimize any losses.

But the true risks are difficult to ascertain because banks do not disclose much about their exposure. Of particular concern is the fate of billions of dollars of bonds that were used to finance the 2007 acquisition of Chrysler by a large private investment fund, Cerberus Capital Management.

The potential losses do not end with those high-risk loans, however. Over the past three years, as the auto industry’s fortunes darkened, big banks like Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase helped the automakers sell more than $56 billion of new debt securities, according to Dealogic. Most of those securities were bought by investors like insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds, many of which have been staggered by losses on other investments. Some hedge funds already have been forced to dump investments into a falling market to meet demands.

That figure does not include $47 billion of risky loans made to various affiliates of Chrysler, Ford and G.M. that are backed by auto leases and car loans to individual car buyers, some of whom are now struggling to pay their own bills as the economy craters.

Many of these auto bonds and loans have plummeted in value as things have gone from bad to worse for Detroit’s once-proud carmakers. A $7 billion term loan that Ford issued in 2006, for instance, was trading for 32 cents on the dollar late last week in the secondary, or resale, market. That is particularly worrisome given that this debt would be the first to be repaid in the event that Ford filed for bankruptcy.

But businesses and ordinary people all the way down the automotive food chain are shouldering a lot of debt too. That includes autoworkers, but also everyone from makers of car stereos to dealerships to parts suppliers, as well as the people who work for those companies. Many of these borrowers could run into trouble if the automakers implode, leaving lenders in the lurch.

“The bigger fear is banks’ indirect exposure to suppliers and related companies in the auto industry,” said Ricardo Kleinbaum, an analyst at BNP Paribas in New York. “The real issue is the effect of an automaker bankruptcy on employment, credit card payments and mortgage defaults in the regions that are affected.”

A big worry is whether banks that have extended loans or underwritten bonds for the auto industry have held on to this debt or sold it to other investors. Banks typically retain a small portion of the securities they underwrite, and many banks that had hoped to sell high-risk loans have been unable to find buyers for them since the credit markets froze over.

“The question is, how much of these loans have they retained on their balance sheet?” said Tanya Azarchs, a credit analyst at Standard and Poor’s Ratings Service.

Few doubt that banks are sitting on billions of dollars of loans to the industry, though. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley were among the banks that arranged $11.5 billion in financing for Cerberus’s takeover of Chrysler. Analysts say the banks are stuck with much of that debt.

And then there is GMAC, the finance arm of G.M. GMAC, which is half-owned by Cerberus, applied last week to become a bank holding company in hopes of qualifying for the government’s bank rescue.

In 2005, when banking was still strong, Bank of America bought $55 billion in loans from GMAC and then sold most of them to other investors. In June, the bank, which has itself received billions of dollars from the government, helped GMAC refinance $60 billion of debt.

More Articles in Business » A version of this article appeared in print on November 24, 2008, on page B1 of the New York edition.

CITIGROUP: BAILOUT, NYT

U.S. Approves Plan to Help Citigroup Cope With Losses

By ERIC DASH

Published: November 23, 2008

Federal regulators approved a radical plan to stabilize Citigroup in an arrangement in which the government could soak up billions of dollars in losses at the struggling bank, the government announced late Sunday night.

Skip to next paragraph

Tracking the $700 Billion Bailout

Related

The Reckoning: Citigroup Saw No Red Flags Even as It Made Bolder Bets (November 23, 2008)

Wall Street Opens Higher (November 25, 2008)

Times Topics: Credit Crisis — The Essentials

Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve and the FDIC on CitigroupTerms of the Plan (pdf)

The complex plan calls for the government to back about $306 billion in loans and securities and directly invest about $20 billion in the company. The plan, emerging after a harrowing week in the financial markets, is the government’s third effort in three months to contain the deepening economic crisis and may set the precedent for other multibillion-dollar financial rescues.

Citigroup executives presented a plan to federal officials on Friday evening after a weeklong plunge in the company’s share price threatened to engulf other big banks. In tense, round-the-clock negotiations that stretched until almost midnight on Sunday, it became clear that the crisis of confidence had to be defused now or the financial markets could plunge further.

Whether this latest rescue plan will help calm the markets is uncertain, given the stress in the financial system caused by losses at Citigroup and other banks. Each previous government effort initially seemed to reassure investors, leading to optimism that the banking system had steadied. But those hopes faded as the economic outlook worsened, raising worries that more bank loans were turning sour.

President-elect Barack Obama was also working over the weekend to shore up confidence in the rapidly faltering economy. Mr. Obama signaled that he would pursue a far more ambitious plan of spending and tax cuts than he had outlined during his campaign and planned to announce his economic team on Monday. Some Democrats in Congress, meantime, were calling for the government to spend as much as $700 billion to stimulate the economy over the next two years. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was involved during the discussions.

Mr. Obama’s expected choice for Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, played a crucial role in the negotiations on Friday but took a less active role once news of his appointment was circulated. While the initial focus of government officials was to help the embattled company, they may also seek to draw up an industrywide plan that could help other banks.

The plan could herald another shift in the government’s financial rescue. The Treasury Department first proposed buying troubled assets from banks but then reversed course and began injecting capital directly into financial institutions. Neither plan, however, restored investors’ confidence for long.

“By intervening, they are giving the market some heart to temporarily stave off some fear — but you can only push that so much,” said Charles R. Geisst, a financial historian and professor at Manhattan College.

Banking industry officials said the decision to support Citigroup, while necessary, could draw a firestorm of criticism from smaller institutions that were not big enough to be saved.

Under the agreement, Citigroup and regulators will back up to $306 billion of largely residential and commercial real estate loans and certain other assets, which will remain on the bank’s balance sheet. Citigroup will shoulder losses on the first $29 billion of that portfolio.

Any remaining losses will be split between Citigroup and the government, with the bank absorbing 10 percent and the government absorbing 90 percent. The Treasury Department will use its bailout fund to assume up to $5 billion of losses. If necessary, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will bear the next $10 billion of losses. Beyond that, the Federal Reserve will guarantee any additional losses.

In exchange, Citigroup will issue $7 billion of preferred stock to government regulators. In addition, the government is buying $20 billion of preferred stock in Citigroup. The preferred shares will pay an 8 percent dividend and will slightly erode the value of shares held by investors.

Citigroup will effectively halt dividend payments for the next three years and will also agree to certain executive compensation restrictions, which will be reviewed by regulators. It will also put in place the F.D.I.C.’s loan modification plan, which is similar to one it recently announced.

The government said it was taking the step to bolster the economy while protecting taxpayers. “We will continue to use all of our resources to preserve the strength of our banking institutions and promote the process of repair and recovery and to manage risks,” the regulators said in a joint statement Sunday.

Inside Citigroup’s Park Avenue headquarters, the mood was tense. Through the weekend, Robert E. Rubin, the former Treasury secretary and an influential executive and director at Citigroup, held several discussions with Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr.

Vikram S. Pandit, Citigroup’s chief executive, spoke to regulators and lawmakers. Mr. Pandit also met with Citigroup’s board on Saturday, and there was no indication that they would seek to replace him.

Once the nation’s largest and mightiest financial company, Citigroup lost half its value in the stock market last week as the bank confronted a crisis of confidence. Although Citigroup executives maintain the bank is sound, investors worry that its finances are deteriorating. Citigroup has suffered staggering losses for a year now, and few analysts think the pain is over. Many investors worry that it needs more capital.

With more than $2 trillion in assets and operations in more than 100 countries, Citigroup is so large and interconnected that its troubles could spill over into other institutions. Citigroup is widely viewed, both in Washington and on Wall Street, as too big to be allowed to fail.

Citigroup executives reached out to the Federal Reserve and the Treasury last week as they sought to stabilize the company’s stock. All major bank stocks have been battered in recent weeks, including those of Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley.

Citigroup’s shares have been hit particularly hard. A year ago they were trading at about $30; on Friday they closed at $3.77.

The plan under discussion is reminiscent of the one that Citigroup and the F.D.I.C. worked out in October with Citigroup’s proposal to buy the Wachovia Corporation. That deal fell through, however, when Wells Fargo swept in with a higher offer.

Under that plan, Citigroup agreed to bear a certain level of Wachovia’s losses, with the federal agency absorbing the rest. In exchange, Citigroup agreed to give the F.D.I.C. preferred stock.

It is also similar to an effort orchestrated by Swiss financial regulators for UBS, another big global bank. Last month, the Swiss central bank and UBS reached an agreement to transfer as much as $60 billion of troubled securities and other assets from UBS’s balance sheet to a separate entity.

Gretchen Morgenson and Louise Story contributed reporting.

______________________________________

VER

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aB.2gApqozI8&refer=home

ATTAC:INTERVIEW N.CHOMSKY

VER

http://mail.google.com/mail/?shva=1#inbox/11dce1d4a8b09f58

Interview N. CHOMSKY

ATTAC:INTERVIEW N.CHOMSKY

VER

http://mail.google.com/mail/?shva=1#inbox/11dce1d4a8b09f58

Interview N. CHOMSKY

APEC:NOTICIAS VARIAS

APEC fortalecerá instituciones financieras para superar la crisis
En la declaración final leída por el Presidente peruano, Alan García, los líderes de la región del Asia-Pacífico acordaron hacer todos los esfuerzos para "evitar la recesión mundial", estrategia que incluye el compromiso de no imponer medidas proteccionistas por 12 meses, tal como lo planteara el G-20.

Domingo 23 de Noviembre de 2008 El Mercurio de Chile
15:22
Agencias
LIMA.- Los miembros del Foro de Cooperación Económica Asia-Pacífico (APEC) se comprometieron a superar la crisis económica mundial, con medidas que fortalezcan las instituciones financieras, dijo este domingo el Presidente peruano, Alan García.

"Vamos a evitar la recesión que amenaza al mundo impulsando cada uno de nosotros el gasto fiscal de manera contracíclica en la infraestructura, en la ayuda social y el apoyo de los servicios básicos de la población", dijo García.

"Vamos a ganar la crisis unidos y los pueblos, los gobiernos y las empresas del mundo vamos a recapitalizar y fortalecer las instituciones financieras", añadió el Mandatario anfitrión de la cumbre efectuada este fin de semana en Lima.

García detalló que la idea es evaluar la posibilidad de crear una red de reaseguros financieros y modificar la composición del Banco Mundial (BM) y el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). "Nuestra obligación es transmitir confianza, es transmitir fe", recalcó el Presidente, flanqueado por los otros 20 líderes del bloque, que genera la mitad del producto y las exportaciones planetarias.

En la declaración final, leída por García, los gobernantes acordaron hacer todos los esfuerzos para "evitar la recesión mundial", estrategia que incluye el compromiso de no imponer medidas proteccionistas por 12 meses, tal como lo planteara ya el G-20 en su reunión de Washington.

En el texto, los integrantes del bloque del Asia-Pacífico afirmaron también su compromiso con la futura creación de un área de libre comercio en la región, pero advirtieron que se necesita determinar mejor sus pros y sus contras antes de acometer su creación.

La declaración, de siete páginas y un anexo dedicado a la Ronda de Doha, contiene escasas medidas concretas y se estructura en torno a cuatro grandes temas: los desafíos económicos regionales, la dimensión social de la globalización, la seguridad humana y el cambio climático, la seguridad de la energía y un desarrollo limpio.

Además de subrayar su determinación de encarar la crisis económica actual -"uno de los desafíos económicos más serios que se nos ha presentado hasta ahora"- los líderes de la APEC comprometieron su apoyo a una conclusión "pronta, ambiciosa y equilibrada" de las negociaciones de la Agenda de Desarrollo de la Ronda de Doha.

Domingo, 23 de noviembre de 2008 - 22:22 GMT
Envíe esta nota por e-mail Imprima esta nota
APEC: optimista ante crisis financiera
Dan Collyns
BBC, Perú

George W. Bush junto a líderes de Indonesia, Japón y Vietnam
Los líderes creen que la crisis económica será superada durante los próximos 18 meses.

Los líderes reunidos en la cumbre del Foro de Cooperación Económica Asia Pacífico (APEC, por sus siglas en inglés) que se llevó a cabo en Perú, realizaron una declaración final en la que señalan que confían en que la crisis financiera pueda ser superada para el año 2010.

El presidente de Estados Unidos, George W. Bush, utilizó las horas finales para despedirse de algunos de los líderes de otros países con los que ha compartido durante los últimos ocho años.

El mandatario le entregará la Presidencia de EE.UU. a Barack Obama en enero.

Esta fue la última cumbre de alto nivel del presidente Bush y a medida que se acercaba su cierre, el mandatario se despidió de algunos de los líderes de diversas partes del mundo con quienes ha tratado durante los últimos ocho años.

"Hemos coincidido en algunas cosas y discrepado en otras", fueron sus palabras tras lo que se considera fue su última reunión con el presidente de Rusia, Dmitry Medvedev.

Aplausos

El ministro de Relaciones Exteriores de Rusia, Sergei Lavrov, le dijo a un periódico peruano que la era de Bush había demostrado que EE.UU. no podía hacer frente solo a los desafíos globales.

Sin embargo, el tono del presidente Bush ha sido cálido. Ha sostenido encuentros cordiales con Japón y China.

Lea:APEC: Bush llama a resistir la tentación

Un discurso que pronunció el sábado en el que advirtió de los peligros del proteccionismo fue interrumpido por aplausos espontáneos, particularmente cuando -probablemente refiriéndose a su legado- Bush indicó que EE.UU. había cuadruplicado su número de acuerdos de Libre Comercio con otros países durante su mandato.

La declaración final de la cumbre del APEC complacerá a Bush, quien ha consistentemente presionado para la apertura de los mercados.

Los 21 líderes del APEC dijeron que creen que la crisis económica será superada durante los próximos 18 meses.

La declaración final señala que se necesitan dar pasos urgentes y extraordinarios para estabilizar los sectores financieros y fortalecer el crecimiento económico.

Esta versión parece ser más sólida que la declaración preliminar divulgada el sábado.

También ordena a ministros a que viajen a Ginebra el próximo mes para buscar una rápida conclusión a la ronda de negociaciones de Doha sobre comercio mundial, que se encuentra en punto muerto.

Aunque se expuso una serie de principios económicos que respaldan la declaración del G-20 hecha la semana pasada, hubo la impresión de que las acciones concretas no se tomarán hasta tanto el presidente electo de EE.UU., Barack Obama, inicie su plan de acción tan pronto asuma el cargo en enero.


Sábado, 22 de noviembre de 2008 - 20:31 GMT
Envíe esta nota por e-mail Imprima esta nota
APEC: Bush llama a resistir la tentación
Redacción BBC Mundo

George W. Bush
Bush criticó al Congreso de EE.UU. por no aprobar los TLC con Colombia, Panamá y Corea del Sur.

El presidente de Estados Unidos, George W. Bush, instó a los líderes del Foro de Cooperación Económica Asia Pacífico (APEC, por sus siglas en inglés) que confíen en "el poder del libre comercio" para resolver la actual crisis financiera.

En la cumbre de la APEC, que tiene lugar en Lima, Perú, el mandatario estadounidense aseguró que el libre comercio puede potenciar el crecimiento económico a largo plazo.

Bush dijo que es "esencial que los gobiernos eviten la tentación de hacer correcciones excesivas mediante la imposición de regulaciones que sofoquen la innovación y estrangulen el crecimiento".


Es esencial que los gobiernos eviten la tentación de hacer correcciones excesivas mediante la imposición de regulaciones que sofoquen la innovación y estrangulen el crecimiento
George W. Bush

"Una de las lecciones perdurables de la Gran Depresión es que el proteccionismo global es la vía hacia la ruina económica global", añadió.

El corresponsal de la BBC en Lima Dan Collins señala que "en un discurso que fue optimista, a pesar de la crisis financiera, Bush insistió en que el principal recurso de cualquier nación es la creatividad de su pueblo".

Lea también: Cumbre APEC: La fiebre de los TLC

Tratados de libre comercio

Bush también criticó al Congreso de Estados Unidos -dominado por los demócratas- por recesar sin haber aprobado los tratados de libre comercio (TLC) con Colombia, Panamá y Corea del Sur.


Los 21 miembros de APEC
Australia, Brunei, Canadá, Chile, China, Corea del Sur, Estados Unidos, Filipinas, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japón, Malasia, México, Nueva Zelanda, Papúa Nueva Guinea, Perú, Rusia, Singapur, Tailandia, Taiwán y Vietnam En lista de espera (para 2010): Colombia, Ecuador y Panamá

Su discurso fue interrumpido por fuertes aplausos cuando elogió al presidente de Colombia, Álvaro Uribe, un aliado cercano de Estados Unidos.

"El Congreso y nuestro gobierno nunca deben darle la espalda a un amigo como Uribe", dijo.

El mandatario añadió que es importante que se concluya con éxito la Ronda de Doha sobre el libre comercio global.

"Sé que dejaré el gobierno dentro de dos meses, pero esta administración se esforzará por establecer las modalidades de manera que Doha se pueda concluir y que enviemos un mensaje de que nos negamos a aceptar el proteccionismo en el siglo XXI", señaló.

Las conversaciones de la Ronda de Doha -un conjunto de negociaciones comerciales que busca establecer un sistema de comercio global más justo- colapsaron en julio de este año tras un desacuerdo entre China, India y EE.UU. sobre los subsidios agrícolas.

Durante las horas finales de la cumbre de la APC, el presidente Bush aprovechó para despedirse de algunos de los líderes mundiales con quienes ha compartido en los últimos ocho años.

Sin embargo, corresponsales indicaron que sus conversaciones con el presidente de Rusia, Dmitry Medvedev, fueron un poco frías.

Posteriormente, el ministro de Relaciones Exteriores de Rusia, Sergei Lavrov, declaró que la "era Bush" había demostrado que Estados Unidos no puede enfrentar los problemas globales solo.

En la cumbre los líderes hicieron un llamado para evitar el proteccionismo como respuesta a la confusión económica global.

Se espera que los 21 países que integran la APEC se comprometan a terminar un marco para la Ronda de Doha, que ya lleva siete años de negociaciones, antes de fines de diciembre.

Leaders back free trade to ease crisis
PAUL ECKERT AND DANA FORD | LIMA, PERU - Nov 23 2008 06:54 Mail&Guardian SA

Leaders from Asia and the Americas promised on Saturday to push for a global free trade deal and reform international lenders in an effort to keep the world from sliding into a deep recession.

United States President George Bush, Chinese President Hu Jintao, Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso and other members of the 21-nation Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group, or Apec, said they would refrain from raising trade barriers over the next 12 months.

They also supported overhauls of the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, and the World Bank at a time when more countries need emergency bailouts to avert economic devastation.

"The current situation highlights the importance of ongoing financial sector reforms in our economies," the leaders said at the mid-point of a two-day summit meeting at a fortified defence compound in Peru's capital, Lima.

On his last scheduled trip abroad before handing over power to president-elect Barack Obama on January 20, Bush joined Apec peers in rejecting protectionism even if economies worsen.

The leaders committed to try to reach a breakthrough in the stalled Doha round of trade talks before the end of this year.

"It's important for us to continue to work together in this time of economic turmoil," Bush said.

Despite calls by all sides for a trade deal, disputes between the United States, the European Union, China, India and other key players have repeatedly wrecked hopes for a breakthrough during the last seven years of negotiations and it is not clear what concessions they are prepared to make now.

The Apec group accounts for more than half of global output and includes countries such as Russia, Indonesia, Australia, Canada and Mexico.
Russian officials said the threat of a major recession had forced Moscow and Washington to cooperate despite their differences, and China's Hu said leaders need to give "adequate attention to the impact of the financial crisis on the developing world and provide necessary support to relevant countries".

Japan was expected to reiterate an offer to give $100-billion to the IMF to prod other countries to chip in funds.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said big countries must do more. "There needs to be expanded support from the major economies to emerging economies that have difficulty in procuring foreign currency liquidity," he said.

Before the group met, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Mexican President Felipe Calderon blamed the United States for starting the crisis and called for better banking regulations.

"Our closest neighbour and largest trading partner is the epicentre of the financial earthquake and global slowdown," Harper said in a speech to business leaders.

Calderon said structural problems in the global economy were allowed to fester before spiraling out of control.

"This wasn't caused by developing countries," he said.

Apec members said they strongly supported recommendations that the Group of 20 leading economies made last week in Washington. Nine of Apec's members belong to the G20.

Obama in the wings
In Washington, the G20 agreed to strive for a deal on key farm and manufactured goods trade issues in the Doha round by the end of the year. It also pushed for government spending or tax incentives to spur economies and tougher oversight of the financial industry.

Pascal Lamy, the World Trade Organisation's director general, will chair a meeting of senior trade officials in Geneva on Sunday to assess the chances of reaching a deal.

But even if progress were made in Geneva on nagging disputes, Bush is a "lame duck" president and Obama's stamp would be needed on any final pact.

Myron Brilliant, vice-president for Asia at the US Chamber of Commerce, said advances in Geneva would help to ensure the trade issue did not languish as Obama settles into the White House.

"If it is not seen as having any momentum, it will fall down the list of priorities," he said of the Doha round.

Progress would also send an encouraging signal to markets facing gloomy times. "If they can get the framework done over the next six weeks that would be very significant," Brilliant said. - Reuters

--

APEC:DECLARACION DE LIMA(INGLES)

SIXTEENTH APEC ECONOMIC LEADERS' MEETING
"A NEW COMMITMENT TO ASIA-PACIFIC DEVELOPMENT"
Lima, Peru, 22-23 November 2008

We, the Economic Leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, gathered in Lima, Peru, under the theme: "A New Commitment to Asia-Pacific Development". The theme chosen for APEC 2008 highlights the importance of reducing the gap between developed and developing member economies. We are committed to strengthening the social dimension of globalization and ensuring that all members and all sectors of our economies can access the skills and opportunities to participate in, and benefit from, regional and global trade and investment.


The current global financial crisis is one of the most serious economic challenges we have ever faced. We will act quickly and decisively to address the impending global economic slowdown. We welcomed the monetary and fiscal stimulus provided by APEC member economies and will take all necessary economic and financial measures to resolve this crisis, taking the necessary actions to offer hope to those most in need. Our resolve to address the deteriorating global economic situation, and support a prompt, ambitious and balanced conclusion to the WTO Doha Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations, is outlined in a separate statement issued at this meeting.


REGIONAL ECONOMIC CHALLENGES
Advancing Regional Economic Integration
Last year we agreed to an ambitious long-term agenda to strengthen regional economic integration. We welcomed the 2008 progress report from Ministers and officials on efforts to achieve this goal. We endorsed the 2009 work plan for the APEC Regional Economic Integration (REI) Agenda in order to build upon this year's accomplishments on REI and to accelerate efforts in all areas of this agenda.
Our goal of free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region will be achieved through a series of unilateral reform measures combined with bilateral, regional and multilateral liberalization. We are committed to continuing the implementation of APEC's REI Agenda. In that regard, we:


• welcomed progress made by member economies towards the Bogor Goals of free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region. We reinforced our commitment to achieving the Bogor Goals to promote growth, development and a rapid recovery from the current global slowdown.
• we commended the progress made in examining the prospects and options of a possible Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) as a long-term prospect. We noted advice from Ministers that while an FTAAP would likely be of economic benefit to the region as a whole, there would also be challenges in its creation. We instructed Ministers and officials to undertake further steps in examining the prospects and options of a possible FTAAP, including by conducting further analytical work on the likely economic impact of an FTAAP, and discussing the possible capacity building requirements for any possible future negotiations. In addition, we instructed officials to undertake initiatives designed to promote greater convergence among economies in key areas of APEC's trade and investment portfolio, including areas such as customs administration, trade facilitation and cross-border services.
• welcomed five new model measures, resulting in a set of 15 completed chapters for Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) and Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) that will promote high-quality RTAs/FTAs and greater consistency and coherence among these agreements in the region.
• endorsed the continued process of implementation of APEC's second Trade Facilitation Action Plan (TFAP II) to achieve our stated goal of reducing trade transaction costs by an additional five percent between 2007 - 2010.
• welcomed the APEC Investment Facilitation Action Plan (IFAP) to improve the investment environment in the region and commended the initiation of the study of bilateral investment agreements and core-investment-related activities of existing free-trade agreements.
• emphasized the importance of strengthening financial markets in the region and welcomed the capacity building activities initiated by APEC Finance Ministers to reform capital markets. We recognized the pressing need for infrastructure development in APEC economies and welcomed the work undertaken by Finance Ministers on linkages between private public partnerships and capital market development. In this regard, we called on Finance Ministers to examine more fully the means to optimize linkages between private infrastructure finance and growth and development.
• reaffirmed our commitment to strengthen the protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPR) in the region, and reiterated the importance of comprehensive and balanced IPR systems that provide for and protect the incentives that encourage creation and innovation. We will continue to promote greater collaboration among our IPR experts and enforcement authorities.
• we welcomed the progress by economies to implement the APEC Anti-Counterfeiting and Piracy Initiative as well as efforts to improve patent systems in the region and look forward to further progress in this area next year.
• welcomed the Digital Prosperity Checklist as an important tool in APEC´s efforts to promote sustained economic growth through the use and development of information and communication technologies.
We welcomed the views and work carried out by the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) on improving the business environment, and called for an active participation of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the REI agenda.


We asked Ministers and officials to continue the implementation of the REI Agenda as outlined in the progress report and report back to us in 2009 with a summary of steps taken to promote this agenda.
Noting the increased economic integration in the region, we also discussed Australia´s suggestions on how regional architecture can keep pace with changing circumstances.
Implementing Structural Reform

We agreed that our Leader's Agenda to Implement Structural Reform (LAISR) is a central element of APEC's agenda, integrating the three pillars of trade and investment liberalization, business facilitation, and economic and technical assistance and cooperation. We reiterated the fundamental importance of tackling 'behind-the-border' barriers to trade and investment in the creation of well-performing, resilient and robust economies.

We welcomed the outcomes of the Structural Reform Ministerial Meeting (SRMM), held in Melbourne in August 2008 and noted the endorsement by Ministers of APEC's Good Practice Guide on Regulatory Reform. We recognized the importance of developing a program of practical support for member economies to successfully undertake structural reform. This includes capacity building initiatives in the areas of regulatory reform, corporate governance and other LAISR areas. We encouraged active participation in the voluntary system of peer or self-review of our economies' efforts to implement structural economic reform.

We welcomed publication of the annual APEC Economic Policy Report and the accelerated work plan for Private Sector Development endorsed by Trade Ministers in June.
Improving Food Security in the Asia-Pacific

We are deeply concerned about the impact that volatile global food prices, combined with food shortages in some developing economies, are having on our achievements in reducing poverty and lifting real incomes over the last decade. The poor are especially vulnerable to increases in food prices. We support a fully coordinated response and a comprehensive strategy to tackle this issue through the Comprehensive Framework for Action developed by the United Nations (UN) Task Force on the Global Food Security Crisis. We will support the application and implementation of this Framework within the region, as appropriate.

Individual and collective policy responses to expand food and agricultural supply in the region should strengthen market forces to encourage new investment in agricultural technology and production systems. A prompt, ambitious and balanced conclusion to the WTO DDA negotiations would deliver substantial improvements in market access and reduce market-distorting measures in global agricultural trade.

We commended the work that APEC has undertaken in the area of food and agriculture, and welcome the work plan endorsed by APEC Ministers to refine and strengthen APEC's agenda to meet current and emerging food security challenges. We also recognized the role of ABAC in raising the importance of food and agricultural issues on the APEC agenda.

We directed APEC to increase technical cooperation and capacity building that will help foster agricultural sector growth, including efforts to increase food production; improve agricultural education; enhance natural resource management; promote the development of next generation biofuels made from non-food materials; build well-functioning markets and regulatory institutions; and make food storage, transportation, and distribution systems more efficient. We pledged cooperation to bolster conditions conducive to promoting agricultural research and development. We directed APEC to help member economies develop science-based regulatory frameworks to benefit from the potential of agricultural biotechnology.

ADDRESSING THE SOCIAL DIMENSION OF GLOBALIZATION
Promoting Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in the Asia-Pacific

We stressed that globalization based on economic, social and environmental progress can bring sustainable benefits to all APEC economies, their business sectors and their people. CSR can reinforce the positive effects that trade and investment have on growth, competitiveness and sustainable development. We encourage responsible and transparent business conduct that adheres to local legislation and regulations and takes into account guidelines related to CSR that have been developed by multilateral bodies, as appropriate.

We agreed that given increasing expectations amongst global consumers, investors and business partners regarding responsible and sustainable business practices, the voluntary activities that comprise CSR will remain an important aspect of doing business in the 21st century. We recognize that all stakeholders in our communities benefit when governments foster a business environment that encourages voluntary CSR practices. This will create greater value both for businesses and for the societies in which they function.

We welcomed the work that has been undertaken within APEC to promote CSR awareness and capabilities in the region, and future work that will encourage dialogue on CSR among relevant stakeholders including: businesses, governments, employees, communities, consumers, investors, and non-governmental organizations. We recognized ABAC's efforts in promoting CSR awareness and uptake in the region through the dissemination of information regarding CSR principles, practices and benefits.

We encouraged companies to incorporate CSR into their business strategies to take account of social, labour and environmental concerns. The development of CSR in the region will depend on the different domestic economic, social and cultural context of APEC members. We agreed to promote CSR practices in APEC economies on a voluntary basis in business operations of all sizes to complement public policies that foster sustainable development.
Combating Corruption in the Region

Corruption in both the public and private sectors is a serious threat to social and economic development in the region. We recognize that when criminal entities collude with corrupt public and private sector officials, it results in a culture of impunity and financial exploitation of the legitimate economy. We agreed to leverage our collective will to combat corruption and related transnational illicit networks by promoting clean government, supporting public-private partnerships, fostering market integrity, and transparent financial systems. We recognize that the criminalization of corruption can facilitate greater regional cooperation.

In support of our earlier APEC anti-corruption commitments, we commend efforts undertaken by member economies to develop comprehensive anti-corruption strategies. These include efforts to restore the public trust and protect against the abuse of our financial system through financial intelligence and law enforcement cooperation related to corrupt payments and illicit financial flows. These anti-corruption activities through APEC are consistent with the UN Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC), which we encouraged economies to ratify and implement, where applicable. We also supported the revised Financial Action Task Force (FATF) recommendations, where appropriate.

We welcomed the Lima Anti-Corruption Declaration on Financial Market Integrity through Effective Public-Private Partnerships and the APEC Guidelines for Public-Private Action against Corruption.
Strengthening Cooperation and Capacity Building in APEC
APEC's program of Economic and Technical Cooperation (ECOTECH) is essential to achieving our objective of building capacity in a range of sectors in APEC economies. We reaffirmed our commitment to the Manila Framework, which serves as the basis for the implementation of the ECOTECH activities outlined in the Osaka Action Agenda. We welcomed contributions from economies to APEC's capacity building programmes.

We welcomed China's proposal to host the 5th APEC Human Resources Development Ministerial Meeting in 2010. Ensuring that all members of our economies receive a quality education is critical to achieving social, individual, economic and sustainable development. It enables people to take advantage of the opportunities created by globalization. We supported the efforts of APEC Education Ministers to strengthen education systems in the region including ongoing support to the APEC Education Network. We welcomed the research-based steps taken by APEC in the areas of mathematics and science; language learning; career and technical education/technical vocational education and training; and information and communication technologies (ICT) and systemic reform. We support the recommendation of Education Ministers to facilitate international exchanges, working towards reciprocal exchanges of talented students, graduates and researchers.

We reaffirmed our commitment to build regional capacity to minimize health-related threats including avian and human influenza pandemics and communicable diseases such as HIV/AIDS. We welcomed continuing efforts to ensure economies are well prepared to deal with health threats and to respond to them in a way that minimizes their adverse impacts on human welfare, trade and investment. We reaffirmed our commitment to improve food and product safety standards and practices to facilitate trade and ensure the health and safety of our populations. We endorsed the work of the APEC Food Safety Cooperation Forum's Partnership Training Institute Network and called on Ministers to take additional steps to enhance food and product safety next year.

We are concerned that gender discrimination continues to have a significant impact on our economies. We committed to strengthening the capacity of APEC members to ensure that gender considerations are taken into account in the development of trade and economic policy, and to ensuring that the region's women are better able to participate in and benefit from regional and global trade.

ENHANCING HUMAN SECURITY IN THE REGION
Combating Terrorism and Securing Regional Trade
Enhancing human security and protecting the region's business and trade against natural, accidental or deliberate disruptions remains an enduring priority for APEC, and an essential enabling element in APEC's core trade and investment agenda.

We agreed that international terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery pose a direct threat to our vision of free, open, peaceful and prosperous societies, and reaffirmed our commitment to eliminate these threats. Since 2001, we have worked together with a common understanding that all terrorist acts are criminal and unjustifiable, and must be unequivocally condemned, especially when they target or injure civilians, or use the abhorrent practices of suicide bombing and hostage taking. Terrorism in all forms and manifestations, committed by whomever, wherever and for whatever purposes, is a profound threat to the peace and security of all people, and of all faiths. Terrorist acts cannot be excused or justified by any alleged cause, conflict, oppression, or poverty.

We agreed that terrorist attempts to abuse or corrupt trade flows, finance, transportation, travel communications and modern technologies will not be tolerated. We pledged our full cooperation to ensure that the flow of people, goods and investments remained secure and open, and that economies and markets operated without disruption. We welcomed the initiative of a group of member economies led by Singapore to undertake a Trade Recovery Programme pilot exercise in 2009. We recognized the important role played by the UN and its Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy. We stressed the need for implementation, where applicable, of UN counter-terrorism measures and the Financial Action Task Force's (FATF) Special Recommendations on Terrorist Financing. We urged APEC Ministers and officials to continue to help secure the region's economic, trade, investment and financial systems from terrorist attack or abuse and trade-based money laundering. We welcomed the ongoing efforts of the international community to combat piracy and armed robbery at sea and encouraged further concerted efforts to fight against piracy.

Disaster Risk Reduction, Preparedness and Management
The frequency and intensity of natural disasters related to the distortion of climate patterns in the region is increasing and the location of, and growth of, cities and mega-cities in vulnerable areas increases the impact of catastrophic events. Improving risk reduction, disaster preparedness and management in the region is a critical human security issue facing the region. We agreed that the challenges in this area are significant and growing in complexity and required greater international cooperation and coordination with the private sector, international organizations and non-government organizations.

We recognized that there continues to be operational challenges in regional disaster responses and greater coordination is needed as the number of disaster management arrangements and players in the region continues to grow. We agreed that greater focus is needed on disaster risk reduction, emergency preparedness and building domestic disaster management capabilities. In this regard, we welcomed the adoption of an APEC Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Preparedness and Response initiated by Peru; the APEC Principles on Disaster Response and Cooperation proposed by China; the Stocktake on Disaster Management Capacity Building Needs; and welcomed the Australia-Indonesia proposal for a Disaster Risk Reduction Facility and its linkages to APEC economies and the APEC Task Force on Emergency Preparedness.

We endorsed the priority APEC has given to promoting risk management, business resilience and public-private sector partnerships, and supported efforts to prepare economies for the recovery phase. We instructed officials to undertake long-term capacity building projects aimed at accelerating recovery in disaster affected areas in APEC economies and supported the inclusion of education on disaster issues in school curricula where appropriate.

CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY SECURITY AND CLEAN DEVELOPMENT
Our ability to successfully confront the challenge of climate change will be crucial to the wellbeing of future generations. As a global issue, climate change must be addressed in a comprehensive manner, through international cooperation under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2009. Reducing poverty is likely to become more difficult in those developing economies most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and related natural disasters. We reaffirmed our commitment to the Sydney APEC Leaders' Declaration on Climate Change, Energy Security and Clean Development.

We support decisive and effective long term cooperation now, up to and beyond 2012 to address climate change under the UNFCCC, in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. We welcomed decisions taken by the international community at the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali in 2007 and the efforts to build a consensus on long term cooperative action, including a global emission reduction goal. We also noted the declaration in this regard by the G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit held in July this year. We recognize the economic diversity and different domestic circumstances of individual APEC economies in addressing climate change.

We reaffirmed our commitment to the Action Agenda announced as part of the Sydney Declaration. We appreciate and encourage the efforts of individual APEC economies to meet these goals. We also welcomed the establishment of the Asia-Pacific Network for sustainable Forest Management and Rehabilitation (APFNet) and appreciate China's commitment to further financial support for this initiative. We expressed support for the cooperation and capacity building for climate change mitigation and adaptation, including those that promote the development and deployment of clean technologies. We appreciate Australia, Japan and the United States' financial support for the Climate Investment Funds, particularly the Clean Technology Fund.

We recognized the value of conservation, sustainable forests management and land use practices and enhancement of carbon stocks in forests and agricultural soils for carbon sequestration in the global response to climate change.

Recognizing that climate change could impede economies' abilities to achieve sustainable economic growth and reduce poverty, we strongly support international cooperation and capacity building for mitigation and adaptation as objectives that should be equally pursued, including those that promote low-emissions technology development and transfer to, and financial support for, developing economies. We also call for additional and coordinated efforts to better understand vulnerabilities caused by the impact of climate change on our oceans and their resources to develop more effective adaptation strategies. We endorsed the positive contribution of the Major Economies Leaders' Declaration to the UNFCCC. We committed to concerted action under the UN and complementary processes to reach an equitable and effective post-2012 international climate change arrangement at the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009.
Conscious that access to adequate, reliable, clean and affordable energy resources is vital to sustaining economic prosperity in the region, we reaffirmed our commitment to supporting the energy needs of regional economies by promoting open energy markets and free energy trade and investment. Such markets are crucial to the development of renewable sources of energy and the dissemination of low emission energy technologies, including new and alternative energy resources and technologies. We encouraged our officials to promote such developments and urge them to pursue regional energy efficiencies and maximize the potential development of clean energy technology.
Strengthening APEC

APEC is the pre-eminent forum for economic cooperation in the region. We are committed to strengthening APEC's institutional processes to ensure it remains responsive to a rapidly changing global environment. Cooperative action within APEC can contribute to better outcomes on the major international challenges we face. We welcomed advice from APEC Ministers on the successful establishment of a Policy Support Unit in the APEC Secretariat as well as progress on the appointment of an Executive Director of the APEC Secretariat for a fixed term.
We endorsed in full the Joint Statement of Ministers at the 20th APEC Ministerial Meeting.
We welcomed the offer of Indonesia to host APEC in 2013. We welcomed the invitation from the Prime Minister of Singapore to meet again in Singapore in 2009.

CDO: PORFOLIO

VER

http://www.portfolio.com/interactive-features/2007/12/cdo

CDO: PORFOLIO

VER

http://www.portfolio.com/interactive-features/2007/12/cdo

CRISE POUR LES NULS: PEDAGOGIQUE

VOIR

http://lacrisepourlesnuls.blogspot.com/2008/07/ambac-disparat-le-monde-retient-son.html

CDO, RMBS, MBS... excelente demostracion

krugman:La economía de la depresión

PAUL KRUGMAN 23/11/2008

La actualidad económica, por si no lo han notado, va de mal en peor. Pero por muy mal que esté, no creo que vaya a haber una nueva Gran Depresión. De hecho, no es probable que veamos que la cifra de desempleo iguale el máximo del 10,7% de los años posteriores a la Depresión, alcanzado en 1982 (aunque ojalá lo supiera a ciencia cierta).

No obstante, ya estamos dentro del radio de lo que yo llamo economía de la depresión. Con esto me refiero a un estado de cosas como el de la década de 1930, en el que los instrumentos habituales de la política económica -en especial la capacidad de la Reserva Federal para bombear la economía mediante recortes de los tipos de interés- han perdido su fuerza de arrastre. Cuando prevalece la economía de la depresión, las reglas normales de la política económica ya no son válidas: la virtud se convierte en vicio; la cautela es un riesgo, y la prudencia, un disparate.

Para ver de qué estoy hablando, piensen en las consecuencias de la última y terrible noticia económica: el informe del jueves acerca de las nuevas solicitudes de cobertura por desempleo, que acaban de superar la barrera del medio millón. Por malo que sea este informe, si lo analizamos por separado, puede que no parezca tan catastrófico. Al fin y al cabo, se encuentra en la misma región que las cifras alcanzadas en la recesión de 2001 y en la de 1990-1991, las cuales terminaron siendo relativamente moderadas según baremos históricos (aunque en ambos casos el mercado laboral tardó mucho tiempo en recuperarse).

Pero en estas dos ocasiones previas todavía se pudo recurrir a la respuesta política habitual ante una economía débil: un recorte de los tipos de los fondos federales, el tipo de interés que se ve afectado más directamente por la política de la Reserva Federal. Hoy ya no. El tipo efectivo de los fondos federales (frente al objetivo oficial, que por motivos técnicos no tiene el menor sentido) ha registrado una media inferior al 0,3% en los últimos días. Básicamente, ya no hay dónde recortar.

Y sin la posibilidad de nuevos recortes de los tipos de interés, no hay nada que pueda detener la caída acelerada de la economía. El crecimiento del desempleo inducirá más descensos en el gasto de los consumidores, que, según adelantaba la pasada semana Best Buy, ya ha experimentado una caída "catastrófica". Un consumo flojo provocará recortes en los planes de inversión de las empresas. Y una economía cada vez más débil traerá más despidos y, en consecuencia, un ciclo de contracción mayor.

Para sacarnos de esta espiral descendente, el Gobierno federal tendrá que proporcionar un estímulo a la economía incrementando el gasto y las ayudas a los que más están sufriendo, y este estímulo no llegará a tiempo o no será del calibre necesario a menos que los políticos y las autoridades económicas sean capaces de superar varios prejuicios convencionales.

Uno de esos prejuicios es el miedo a los números rojos. En tiempos normales está bien preocuparse por el déficit presupuestario, y la responsabilidad fiscal es una virtud que tendremos que volver a aprender tan pronto como la crisis quede atrás. Sin embargo, cuando prevalece la economía de la depresión, esta virtud se convierte en un vicio. El intento prematuro de Franklin Delano Roosevelt de equilibrar el presupuesto en 1937 casi llevó al traste el New Deal.

Otro prejuicio es la creencia de que la política debe avanzar con cautela. En tiempos normales, esto tiene sentido: no se deben hacer grandes cambios en la política hasta que esté claro que son necesarios. Sin embargo, en la situación actual, la cautela es un riesgo porque ya se están produciendo enormes cambios a peor, y cualquier retraso a la hora de actuar aumenta las posibilidades de provocar un desastre económico mayor. La respuesta política debería estar muy bien hilvanada, pero el tiempo es oro.

Por último, en tiempos normales, la humildad y la prudencia en los objetivos políticos son buenas cualidades. Sin embargo, en la coyuntura actual es preferible pecar de hacer demasiado que de hacer demasiado poco. El riesgo, si las medidas de estímulo se antojan más que necesarias, es que la economía se caliente en exceso y produzca inflación, pero la Reserva Federal siempre podrá capear esa amenaza subiendo los tipos de interés. Por otro lado, si las medidas de estímulo se quedan demasiado cortas, no habrá nada que la Reserva Federal pueda hacer para compensar ese déficit. De modo que cuando prevalece la economía de la depresión, la prudencia es un disparate.

¿Qué viene a decirnos todo esto sobre la política económica a corto plazo? El Gobierno de Obama, casi con toda seguridad, tomará posesión con una economía en peores condiciones que en la actualidad. De hecho, Goldman Sachs vaticina que la tasa de desempleo, actualmente del 6,5%, alcanzará el 8,5% para finales del año que viene.

Todo parece indicar que el nuevo Gobierno presentará un plan de estímulo de calado. Mis cálculos a bote pronto son que este plan debería ser enorme, del orden de los 475.000 millones de euros.

La pregunta ahora es si la gente de Obama se atreverá a proponer algo de ese calibre. Esperemos que la respuesta sea que sí, y que el Gobierno entrante sea en efecto así de atrevido, pues nos encontramos en una situación en la que sería muy peligroso dejarse llevar por las nociones convencionales de prudencia.

© 2008 New York Times News Service. Traducción de News Clips.