Y que forma adoptara la recuperacion?

Buena pregunta, viene comentada en macroperu por oscar blanco

What Form Will The Recovery Take? Economists are starting to debate the shape of a recovery -- will it be a "V" or an "L?" What do you make of the evidence garnered by Michael Mussa for a stronger-than-average surge of growth when the recovery starts, or the case made by Paul Krugman, Simon Johnson and others that a sluggish, "L"-shaped rebound is likely, or perhaps even a double-dip "W?" Is it simply too early to see a turning point in the near future? -- John Maggs, NationalJournal.com Leave a response 4 Responses Expand all comments Collapse all comments Responded on April 21, 2009 8:01 AM Norbert Walter, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank The cycle will not be V-shaped, it may turn out to become a wide open U. The severe uncertainties may make it into a W. Since the U is so wide open, by the turn of 2009/2010 the average man will hold the perception the cycle is L-shaped. The common man will be as wrong as the financial market chicken, who tend to believe after 6 weeks of bullish stock markets, that this recession will be V-shaped. Link to this response: Print Responded on April 20, 2009 6:29 PM Jean Pisani-Ferry, Director, Bruegel, and Professor of Economics, Université Paris-Dauphine After months where the main concern was to deal with the possibility of an outright collapse of the world economy, there are indications that we are approaching the bottom. The emerging debate between economists about the shape of the recovery is therefore timely. There are reasons for optimism – inventories are low and the resumption of world trade can act as a powerful accelerator - but experience with financial crises leads to circumspection: recent by BIS and IMF economists suggests that credit crunches and house price busts are linked to deeper and longer recessions, and that on average countries are unable to return to their previous growth path. Taking stock over a smaller sample of four financial sector-induced recessions in OECD countries (Sweden, Finland, Japan and Korea), Bruno van Pottelsberghe and I have observed in a recent Bruegel Policy Brief that countries normally do not return to their earlier growth path. Labor markets hysteresis and the ineffectiveness of the normal Schumpeterian cleansing effect of recessions during financial crises explain this outcome. ... Read More After months where the main concern was to deal with the possibility of an outright collapse of the world economy, there are indications that we are approaching the bottom. The emerging debate between economists about the shape of the recovery is therefore timely. There are reasons for optimism – inventories are low and the resumption of world trade can act as a powerful accelerator - but experience with financial crises leads to circumspection: recent by BIS and IMF economists suggests that credit crunches and house price busts are linked to deeper and longer recessions, and that on average countries are unable to return to their previous growth path. Taking stock over a smaller sample of four financial sector-induced recessions in OECD countries (Sweden, Finland, Japan and Korea), Bruno van Pottelsberghe and I have observed in a recent Bruegel Policy Brief that countries normally do not return to their earlier growth path. Labor markets hysteresis and the ineffectiveness of the normal Schumpeterian cleansing effect of recessions during financial crises explain this outcome. Importantly, strains in the banking system clog the virtuous reallocation of capital from ailing industries and firms towards new sectors and young growing companies. Productivity can therefore be affected. However, there is variation in country experiences.. It is during the recession that the seeds of future growth performance are sown – or not. Here the comparison between Japan and Sweden is striking: while the latter managed to accelerate its growth after the crisis and the recoup the entire output loss, the latter suffered a long slump often quipped the 'lost decade'. Policy therefore matters considerably and this is apparent along five channels: - the size of the stimulus packages, - their content, - labor market policies, - the restructuring of banks, and - innovation policy. While the size of the stimulus has been widely debated, content is also important. In the EU national stimulus packages are often tilted towards the non traded sector. But the fear of 'trade leakages' often leads to put too much emphasis on demand to supply-constrained sectors. The Swedish experience also suggests that countries should not try to diminish unemployment by driving people out of the labor force. Keeping workers close to the labor market, through temporary work-sharing schemes may avoid the costly destruction of human capital. Most importantly, the banking sector should be swiftly restructured. It took seven years for Japanese banks to recognize half of its losses, but only three in Sweden. A 'zombie economy' is the worse threat to growth in the coming years. Finally, R&D should be supported. It is both highly cyclical and important for productivity in the next decade. A falling R&D today would translate into a lagging productivity tomorrow. While international comparisons encourage more for pessimism than optimism about the speed of the recovery, they also yield important conclusions that should inspire policymakers. Collapse Link to this response: Print Responded on April 20, 2009 2:41 PM Adam Posen, Deputy Director, Peterson Institute for International Economics One take on a W-shaped future is here. (http://www.iie..com/publications/papers/pp20090410posen.pdf) Link to this response: Print Responded on April 20, 2009 12:31 PM J.D. Foster, Senior Economist, the Heritage Foundation The answer is – the missing letter. An L followed by a complete V. Historical comparisons are especially problematic for this recession and the recovery to follow in part because we should probably think of current events as the second of three recessions. The first recession ran from December of 2007 until September of 2008 and was fairly run-of-the-mill. The second recession began with the financial implosion in September of 2008. In the second recession, many of the forces at work in the first recession picked up additional steam, most notably the housing sector, but then the financial sector fell apart and with it the financing of much of the rest of the economy. Another aspect making the current recession unusual is the extent of the damage to the financial sector, and yet another is that this recession is part of a global, synchronized recession in which many of our major trading partners are likely to fare far worse than will the United States. With this background, and given the additional policy headwi...

FMI: Perú crecerá seis puntos menos que lo previsto

En sus "Perspectivas Económicas Mundiales", el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) señala que todos los países del grupo andino crecerán en 2009 mucho menos de lo previsto en su estudio de hace seis meses, y en algunos casos como el de Ecuador y Venezuela la economía se contraerá este año.

La recesión mundial será más dura para los países dependientes de la exportación de materias primas debido a la bajada de los precios, señala el informe.

Éste es el caso de Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador y, sobre todo, Venezuela, añade el FMI, que pronostica para este país "la contracción sea más grave".

Junto a Ecuador, Venezuela afronta, además, costes más altos para obtener financiación en los mercados, dice el FMI, que añade que otros como Colombia y Perú "con mejores posiciones iniciales" disfrutan costes más bajos y han logrado incluso emitir deuda pública con éxito en los últimos meses.

En Perú, la pérdida de valor de su divisa permitirá compensar otros efectos negativos y prever un crecimiento económico del 3,5 por ciento este año y del 4,5 por ciento en 2010, el más elevado de toda la región.

Perú es uno de los pocos países donde el bajo nivel de deuda ha permitido la puesta en marcha de programas de estímulo económico, destaca el FMI.

PERÚ.- La economía peruana crecerá este año un 3,5 por ciento, casi seis puntos porcentuales menos de lo previsto hace seis meses, y un 4,5 por ciento en 2010.

La tasa de inflación peruana será del 4,1 por ciento en 2009 para bajar al 2,5 por ciento en 2010, frente al 5,8 por ciento de 2008.

Además, registrará un déficit por cuenta corriente del 3,3 por ciento del PIB en 2009 y del 3,2 por ciento en 2010, semejante al 3,3 de 2008.

COLOMBIA.- El PIB colombiano no crecerá en 2009, frente al aumento del 3,5 por ciento pronosticado en el último informe y el 2,5 por ciento de 2008. En 2010 el crecimiento económico se prevé que sea del 1,3 por ciento.

La inflación para este año llegará al 5,4 por ciento y se reducirá al 4 por ciento en 2010, por debajo del 7 por ciento de 2008.

En cuanto al déficit por cuenta corriente, el FMI pronostica que se situará este año en el 3,9 por ciento del PIB y en el 3,3 el próximo, frente al 2,8 por ciento de 2008.

ECUADOR.- La economía ecuatoriana se contraerá este año un 2 por ciento, frente al crecimiento del 3 por ciento previsto hace seis meses. En 2010, el PIB mejorará ligeramente con una subida del 1 por ciento.

Para este año, el FMI pronostica una tasa de inflación del 4 por ciento y del 3 en 2010, por debajo del 8,4 por ciento de 2008.

Las noticias son algo mejores para la balanza por cuenta corriente, pues la economía ecuatoriana elevará su superávit del 2,4 al 3,5 por ciento en 2009, si bien en 2010 volverá a bajar al 2,3 por ciento.

BOLIVIA.- El PIB boliviano no podrá repetir este ejercicio el crecimiento del 5,9 por ciento de 2008, pero se prevé que crezca al menos un 2,2 en 2009 y un 2,9 por ciento en 2010.

La tasa de inflación mejorará frente al 14 por ciento de 2008 al prever un 6,5 por ciento este año y algo menos, un 6,1 por ciento, el próximo.

Sin embargo, Bolivia dejará de tener superávit en su balanza de pagos para registrar un déficit este año del 2,1 por ciento que se reducirá hasta el 1,1 por ciento en 2010.

VENEZUELA.- El crecimiento del 2,4 por ciento del PIB venezolano en 2008 no se repetirá en 2009, cuando la economía se prevé que se contraiga un 2,2 por ciento y un 0,5 en 2010. Hace seis meses, el FMI pronosticó un aumento del 3,4 por ciento para este ejercicio.

Venezuela mantendrá una inflación de dos dígitos con tasas del 36,4 por ciento en 2009 y del 43,5 en 2010, frente al 30,4 por ciento de 2008.

La economía venezolana, según el Fondo, dejará de tener superávit por cuenta corriente y registrará un déficit del 0,4 por ciento este año, pero volverá al superávit en 2010, de en torno al 4,1 por ciento. EFE

pg/mla/mmg

Los pronosticos del FMI

Los pronósticos del FMI no dan lugar al optimismo 23 DE ABRIL DE 2009 Cuando hace unos días se comenzaba a hablar de las primeras señales de recuperación de la economía estadounidense, renacía la esperanza de que la terrible crisis financiera que está padeciendo el mundo, tuviera un final cercano. Sin embargo, mientras dichas señales se encuentran esperando nuevas confirmaciones, las proyecciones del Fondo Monetario Internacional (IMF), sobre el crecimiento global, vuelven a instalar el pesimismo. ¿Se retrasa la recuperación de la economía mundial? ¿Qué pueden hacer las economías latinoamericanas para limitar el impacto negativo del contexto global adverso? ¿Qué tan profunda es la crisis? Lo suficiente como para que el FMI estime que la economía mundial sufrirá una contracción del 1,3% durante el presente año. El deterioro de las condiciones económicas ha sido tal en los últimos meses que en el mes de enero, sólo cuatro meses atrás, el organismo internacional había pronosticado un crecimiento de la economía mundial del 0,5% para el presente año.. Los números de crecimiento proyectado por el FMI para las principales economías son preocupantes. En la zona del euro se espera que la economía se contraiga en un 4,2% e incluso seguirá contrayéndose durante el 2010 en un 0,4%. Dentro de la eurozona, la economía alemana sufrirá en el presente año una contracción del 5,6% (y seguirá cayendo en 2010, aunque lo haría un 1%). Para la economía estadounidense, el organismo internacional anticipó una contracción de su producto del 2,8% para el presente año, mientras que la economía japonesa se contraerá un 6,2%. Para el FMI, la principal economía mundial continuará contrayéndose en 2010. La economía estadounidense observaría una caída de su PBI en un 0,05% el próximo año, lo cual desalentaría las esperanzas sobre las perspectivas de recuperación de la economía mundial. Para Latinoamérica, las proyecciones tampoco resultan alentadoras. Es que el FMI espera que la región entre en recesión durante el 2009 y su PBI se contraiga un 1,5%. En 2010, la región volverá a crecer, aunque lo haría en un 1,6%. Pero no todos los países latinoamericanos recuperarían la senda del crecimiento ya que el FMI proyecta que tres países seguirán observando una contracción de su producto, entre ellos, Venezuela cuyo PBI se reduciría un 0,5%. Entre las economías latinoamericanas que más sentirán el efecto de la crisis según el FMI están México (-3,7%), Venezuela (-2,2%) y Ecuador (-2%). Luego sigue, entre las principales economías de la región, Argentina con una contracción esperada del 1,5%. Luego de presentado este panorama desolador: ¿Qué se puede decir al respecto de estas proyecciones? Si lo pienso buscando una doble intencionalidad por parte del FMI, diría que el organismo estaría exagerando las cifras de caída del PBI global para lograr que los gobiernos aumenten sus esfuerzos para lograr la recuperación económica. Uno puede interpretar esta intención en párrafos como el siguiente en donde el organismo internacional se refiere a la Unión Europea: "si los países de la Unión Europea son capaces de poner en marcha una respuesta contundente, global y coordinada a las tribulaciones del sector financiero, la confianza y deseos de asumir riesgos se podrían recuperar más rápido de lo esperado". Todavía no me animo a pensar que la crisis permanecerá un tiempo más entre nosotros. Personalmente, le tengo un poco de fe a la capacidad de recuperación de la economía estadounidense y a su poder, como locomotora de la economía mundial que es, de liderar la recuperación del resto de las principales economías.. Es por ello que, aún espero que el 2010 arroje signos positivos en términos de crecimiento para las principales economías del planeta. Lógicamente, soy consciente que mis expectativas corren un serio riesgo en medio de un contexto altamente turbulento y en donde aún persiste la incertidumbre que atenta contra las expectativas. Pero no tengo dudas que a medida que se vayan reduciendo los riesgos, la recuperación económica cobrará fuerza de la mano de un cambio de humor que impulsará el consumo y la inversión nuevamente. Está claro viendo las proyecciones del FMI que las economías sudamericanas sufrirán más de lo esperado la crisis actual. Ello a pesar de que las mismas están haciendo todo lo posible tanto desde la política monetaria como la fiscal para contrarrestar el impacto negativo de la misma. Una reflexión que creo necesaria realizar es que tanto las economías latinoamericanas que han llevado adelante políticas económicas sanas como aquellas que no, se ven duramente golpeadas por la crisis. Claro que existe una diferencia entre ambas. Aquellas economías que han estado llevando adelante políticas sanas y consistentes a largo plazo, sufrirán menos y observarán un más pronto restablecimiento de su crecimiento económico. Mientras tanto, mientras la crisis sigue afectando a la región: ¿Qué pueden hacer los países latinoamericanos? Las perspectivas negativas de crecimiento en las principales economías mundiales representan un duro golpe para la región, a la que dicha situación le dificultará su recuperación. La única alternativa que tienen para atenuar los efectos de la crisis es continuar recurriendo a la política monetaria y fiscal expansivas y a la cooperación regional. Sobre la política monetaria, las economías deben tener cuidado de que la misma no genere efectos negativos sobre la estabilidad cambiaria ni que genere un efecto negativo sobre el flujo de capitales, por lo que la misma probablemente encuentre límites a su accionar en el manejo de su tasa de interés de referencia. Ello hará necesario que para lograr mayores efectos sobre la economía real, se trabaje con más intensidad sobre otros mecanismos para lograr que el sistema financiero genere el crédito necesario para recuperar la fortaleza de la demanda interna. La cooperación regional es un elemento clave para atenuar los efectos de la crisis en Latinoamérica. Este es un mal momento para pensar el aumentar el proteccionismo entre los países de la región. ¿Será posible que los países de la región puedan avanzar en acuerdos de cooperación para expandir el comercio intrarregional como respuesta a la crisis?

El FMI no se cansa de dar malas noticias

Redacción

BBC Mundo

El FMI prevé una recuperación gradual para 2010.

El Fondo Monetario Internacional pronosticó una contracción del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) mundial del 1,3% este año, la mayor caída desde la Segunda Guerra.

De acuerdo con el Panorama Económico Mundial publicado por el organismo, la economía del planeta "atraviesa una recesión aguda provocada por una crisis financiera masiva y una grave pérdida de confianza" y "las diversas y a veces poco convencionales medidas políticas que se han tomado no han sido del todo eficaces a la hora de estabilizar los mercados".

Estas decisiones tomadas por los gobierno tampoco han conseguido frenar la caída de la producción y no han logrado detener las fuertes tensiones financieras, aseguró el FMI.

Aunque el informe dice que se han visto señales alentadoras de una reanimación económica desde la reunión del G-20 recientemente efectuada en Londres, "la confianza en los mercados financieros sigue siendo escasa y eso empaña las perspectivas de una pronta recuperación".

Sólo gradual

Los especialistas del Fondo consideran que la desaceleración debería moderarse a partir del segundo trimestre.

La mayoría de los países (de América Latina) están capeando bien la tormenta en relación con experiencias previas de turbulencias globales

Fondo Monetario Internacional

No obstante, se proyecta una contracción del 1,3% en 2009 y una recuperación tan sólo gradual en 2010, con un crecimiento de 1,9%.

Estados Unidos sigue estando en el centro de las turbulencias y su economía se contraerá el 2,8% este año, estima el FMI.

A otras economías desarrolladas les irá aún peor. El Reino Unido se contraerá el 4,1%; Alemania el 5,6%; Japón un 6,2% e Italia el 4,4%.

El periodista económico de la BBC Steve Schifferes informa que en cuanto al comercio mundial los vaticinios son incluso peores: el FMI estima que el comercio caerá el 11% en 2009.

El retroceso en este aspecto ya está golpeando fuertemente a naciones líderes en el comercio, como las de Asia, explica Schifferes.

América Latina

El informe añade que "la disminución de los flujos de capital hacia las economías emergentes puede ser prolongada" debido a los problemas de solvencia que afrontan los bancos de los países industrializados.

A. LATINA: POR PAÍSES

México (contracción del 3,7%)

Venezuela (contracción del 2,2%)

Ecuador (contracción del 2,0%)

Brasil (contracción del 1,3%)

Argentina (contracción del 1,5%)

Colombia (crecimiento plano)

Chile (expansión del 0,1%)

Uruguay (expansión del 1,3%)

Perú (expansión del 3,5%) Previsiones del FMI para 2009.

Como consecuencia de esta falta de flujo de capitales y la caída del precio de las materias primas, en América Latina los estimados indican que la economía se contraerá el 1,5%.

Sin embargo, "la mayoría de los países están capeando bien la tormenta en relación con experiencias previas de turbulencias globales, gracias a mejoras en las políticas y en las posiciones de las hojas de balance".

El FMI cree que, debido a sus vínculos con Estados Unidos, la economía de México podría ser la más afectada en la región, con una contracción en 2009 del 3,7%.

Venezuela seguiría a México como el segundo país más afectado, con una desaceleración del 2,2%, y luego Ecuador con el 2%.

En cuanto a Colombia, el FMI pronostica un crecimiento plano este año y estima que la economía chilena se expandiría el 0,1%.l

Perú, por su parte, crecería el 3,5% y Uruguay el 1,3%.

BANQUES:Le rebond boursier des banques est spectaculaire

22 avril 2009

Le rebond boursier des banques est spectaculaire

Je ne suis pas sur que les chiffres soient connus, même s’ils sont publics et facile a obtenir. Une fois n’est pas coutume, je me permets de vous donner une idée de l’évolution des cours de bourse des banques depuis le 9 mars, date du niveau le plus bas du marché cette année. J’avoue que ces chiffres sont impressionnants, et qu’ils comprennent à la fois des couvertures de ventes a découvert (rachat des actions « shortées ») et positions de trading basées sur une opinion que les niveaux étaient trop bas. Même en prenant ces facteurs en considération, il est évident qu’il s’agit de plus qu’une correction, et qu’elle affecte l’Europe autant que les Etats-Unis.

Citi 215%

Bank of America 172%

ING 151%

KBC 140%

Lloyds Bank 142%

Natixis 114%

Deutsche Bank 114%

J P Morgan Chase 100%

Société Générale 86%

BNP Paribas 73%

Goldman Sachs 55%

UBS 52%

Morgan Stanley 44%

Le débat sur le remboursement des aides d’Etat est bien engagé aux Etats-Unis. La prochaine étape sera le résultat des « stress tests » effectues par le Gouvernement américain qui vise à analyser les fonds propres des institutions financières américaines. Cette epee de Damoclès a été partiellement levée par une déclaration du Secrétaire au Trésor, Tim Geithner, hier, considérant qu’une large majorité des banques américaines étaient adéquatement capitalisées. Ils son t attendus le 4 mai.A quand un exercice comparable au niveau européen ?

China Uses Global Crisis to Assert Its Influence

Un nuevo imperialismo al ataque, aquí ya conocemos las "bondades" del modelo chino para con los trabajadores y la industria nacional, guerra avisada no mata gente ...

China Uses Global Crisis to Assert Its Influence

Along With Aid to Other Nations, Beijing Offers Up Criticism of the West

SOURCE: Wire and staff reports | By Tobey - The Washington Post - April 23, 2009

By Ariana Eunjung Cha

Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, April 23, 2009

BEIJING -- With Jamaica's currency in free fall, unemployment soaring and banks heavily exposed to government debt, the Caribbean island's diplomats went into crisis mode earlier this year. They traveled to all corners of the world to seek help.

Jamaica's traditional allies, the United States and Britain, were preoccupied with their own financial problems, but a new friend jumped at the opportunity to come to the rescue: China.

When contracts for loan packages totaling $138 million were signed between the two countries in March, China became Jamaica's biggest financial partner. Headlines in Jamaica's leading newspapers, which only a year ago were filled with concern about China's growing influence in the region, gushed about its generosity.

"The loan couldn't have come more in time and on more preferred terms," E. Courtenay Rattray, Jamaica's ambassador to China, said in an interview. While the island nation continues to value its close relationships with Western powers, he added, in some respects Jamaica has more in common with China. "Those are developed countries. They don't have such an in-depth understanding of the development aspirations of Jamaica as does China," he said.

Overseas aid and loans are just one way China is asserting itself in its new role as a world financial leader. While polishing China's own image, Premier Wen Jiabao and other top leaders have blamed the West for the global economic crisis. Chinese officials increasingly are challenging the primacy of the dollar, warning other countries about the danger of keeping reserves in just one or two currencies, such as dollars and euros. And as the global economic crisis has eroded faith in U.S.-style capitalism, there's growing talk that a new "Beijing Consensus" will replace the long-dominant Washington Consensus on how developing countries should manage their economies.

Coined by British economist John Williamson 20 years ago, the term "Washington Consensus" refers to a standard set of policies -- including privatization of state enterprises, free trade, deregulation and restraint in public spending -- that the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the U.S. Treasury Department have long urged on debt-ridden nations, particularly in Latin America.

A fierce debate has broken out among academics and financial policymakers about how to define the Beijing Consensus, or even whether such a thing exists; many say that it is a loose package of political points rather than an economic model, and that there is no formal effort by the Chinese government to promote it. But some experts are already calling it a challenge to the existing order.

"It is very possible that the Beijing Consensus can replace the Washington Consensus," said Cui Zhiyuan, a professor of public policy at Tsinghua University who edited a recent book on the subject. "Since the crisis, the world doesn't have as much confidence in the U.S. economic model as before."

In a report last month titled "The Beijing Consensus," South Korea's Ministry of Strategy and Finance sounded an alarm over China's aid and loans. Developing countries that accept Chinese assistance, it warned, may lower their guard and gravitate toward a Chinese-style economic model.

Jamaica's Rattray dismissed those fears as overblown. China's financial assistance to his country came with "no requirement to adopt specific macroeconomic policy approaches," he said, and there is "no debate about the government of Jamaica's commitment to a free-market economic model."

Cheng Enfu, an economics researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government-affiliated think tank, said he defines the Beijing Consensus as promotion of economies in which public ownership remains dominant; gradual reform is preferred to "shock therapy"; the country is open to foreign trade but remains largely self-reliant; and large-scale market reform takes place first, followed later by political and cultural change.

The global economic crisis, Cheng said, "displays the advantages of the Chinese model" and has already expanded China's influence. "Some mainstream economists are saying that India should learn from China; Latin American countries are trying to learn from China. When foreign countries send delegations to China, they show interest in the Chinese way of developing," Cheng said.

Barry Sautman, a political scientist at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said in a research paper that Western academics often deride the Chinese model as "economic growth without the constraints of democratic institutions." But, he argued, the emerging Beijing Consensus "takes seriously some aspirations of developing states often ignored or opposed by the West," such as "a more equitable international distribution of wealth and power."

As Beijing grows more assertive in international finance, it is working inside as well as outside existing organizations. In January, it joined the Inter-American Development Bank -- which is active in Latin America and the Caribbean -- as a donor country. It is in talks with the IMF to increase its contribution to the fund in exchange for more of a say in IMF policies. And in Asia, it is leading the push by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations for a regional fund that will compete with the Asian Development Bank.

This week, China's allies Kazakhstan and Pakistan -- both of which recently got new loans from China -- threw their support behind calls from China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, to create a new world or Asian reserve currency to replace the dollar. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, who also signed a credit line with China recently, has backed the proposal.

In the past five months, China has signed $95 billion in currency swap agreements with six countries that now hold part of their reserves in yuan. The government has also begun to allow companies in southern China to settle contracts with foreign neighbors in yuan instead of dollars or euros.

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University who as far back as 2006 predicted a U.S. economic collapse triggered by a housing bubble, said in an interview that the financial crisis has shown that "different countries grow in different ways, and nobody has the monopoly on that type of wisdom." While he does not expect any immediate change in the international monetary system, he said, in five to 10 years "the Chinese currency could be the new reserve currency."

But Michael Pettis, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a professor of finance at Peking University, says China's recent moves are more about public relations and aiding diplomatic allies than a true effort to remake the global financial system or to push a new model of development. Beijing has long used foreign aid to encourage developing countries to stop recognizing Taiwan -- as Jamaica did in 1972 -- and the talk about creating a new international "supercurrency" may be mostly a warning to the United States not to cover mounting deficits simply by printing money.

"It's about signaling concern about U.S. monetary policy," Pettis said.

At an economic forum in the southern Chinese city of Boao last weekend, China's leaders seized every opportunity to criticize Western countries and institutions.

China's top banking regulator, Liu Mingkang, called the recent Group of 20 meetings in London and Washington "mainly lip service without many concrete actions." Former vice premier Zeng Peiyan said that if the United States wants to continue receiving "foreign funding support," it should guarantee the value of its Treasury securities to countries that buy them. And Zheng Xinli, deputy head of the China Center for Economic Exchanges, an influential new research center, called for a new Asian development bank to compete with Western-dominated institutions.

Researchers Zhang Jie in Beijing and Robert E. Thomason in Washington contributed to this report.

__._,_.___

japon: LATINAMERICAN WORKERS COME BACK

Japan Pays Foreign Workers to Go Home

Franck Robichon for The New York Times

Officials in Hamamatsu, an industrial town in central Japan, describe the plan to encourage Latin American guest workers, who are descendants of Japanese emigrants, to return home.

• 
  
  • Linkedin
  • Digg
  • Facebook
  • Mixx
  • MySpace
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Permalink
  • 
    

By HIROKO TABUCHI

Published: April 22, 2009

HAMAMATSU, Japan — Rita Yamaoka, a mother of three who immigrated from Brazil, recently lost her factory job here. Now, Japan has made her an offer she might not be able to refuse.

A Cash Offer to Leave Japan

Related

Hime Island Journal: A Workers’ Paradise Found Off Japan’s Coast (April 22, 2009)

Japanese Companies Seek to Revamp for the Future (April 23, 2009)

Enlarge This Image

Franck Robichon for The New York Times

Sergio Yamaoka, left, and his wife, Rita, came to Hamamatsu from Brazil with their three children three years ago, at the height of the export boom. But in recent months, the Yamaokas both lost their auto factory jobs.

The government will pay thousands of dollars to fly Mrs. Yamaoka; her husband, who is a Brazilian citizen of Japanese descent; and their family back to Brazil. But in exchange, Mrs. Yamaoka and her husband must agree never to seek to work in Japan again.

“I feel immense stress. I’ve been crying very often,” Mrs. Yamaoka, 38, said after a meeting where local officials detailed the offer in this industrial town in central Japan.

“I tell my husband that we should take the money and go back,” she said, her eyes teary. “We can’t afford to stay here much longer.”

Japan’s offer, extended to hundreds of thousands of blue-collar Latin American immigrants, is part of a new drive to encourage them to leave this recession-racked country. So far, at least 100 workers and their families have agreed to leave, Japanese officials said.

But critics denounce the program as shortsighted, inhumane and a threat to what little progress Japan has made in opening its economy to foreign workers.

“It’s a disgrace. It’s cold-hearted,” said Hidenori Sakanaka, director of the Japan Immigration Policy Institute, an independent research organization.

“And Japan is kicking itself in the foot,” he added. “We might be in a recession now, but it’s clear it doesn’t have a future without workers from overseas.”

The program is limited to the country’s Latin American guest workers, whose Japanese parents and grandparents emigrated to Brazil and neighboring countries a century ago to work on coffee plantations.

In 1990, Japan — facing a growing industrial labor shortage — started issuing thousands of special work visas to descendants of these emigrants. An estimated 366,000 Brazilians and Peruvians now live in Japan.

The guest workers quickly became the largest group of foreign blue-collar workers in an otherwise immigration-averse country, filling the so-called three-K jobs (kitsui, kitanai, kiken — hard, dirty and dangerous).

But the nation’s manufacturing sector has slumped as demand for Japanese goods evaporated, pushing unemployment to a three-year high of 4.4 percent. Japan’s exports plunged 45.6 percent in March from a year earlier, and industrial production is at its lowest level in 25 years.

New data from the Japanese trade ministry suggested manufacturing output could rise in March and April, as manufacturers start to ease production cuts. But the numbers could have more to do with inventories falling so low that they need to be replenished than with any increase in demand.

While Japan waits for that to happen, it has been keen to help foreign workers leave, which could ease pressure on domestic labor markets and the unemployment rolls.

“There won’t be good employment opportunities for a while, so that’s why we’re suggesting that the Nikkei Brazilians go home,” said Jiro Kawasaki, a former health minister and senior lawmaker of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

“Nikkei” visas are special visas granted because of Japanese ancestry or association.

Mr. Kawasaki led the ruling party task force that devised the repatriation plan, part of a wider emergency strategy to combat rising unemployment.

Under the emergency program, introduced this month, the country’s Brazilian and other Latin American guest workers are offered $3,000 toward air fare, plus $2,000 for each dependent — attractive lump sums for many immigrants here. Workers who leave have been told they can pocket any amount left over.

But those who travel home on Japan’s dime will not be allowed to reapply for a work visa. Stripped of that status, most would find it all but impossible to return. They could come back on three-month tourist visas. Or, if they became doctors or bankers or held certain other positions, and had a company sponsor, they could apply for professional visas.

Spain, with a unemployment rate of 15.5 percent, has adopted a similar program, but immigrants are allowed to reclaim their residency and work visas after three years.

Japan is under pressure to allow returns. Officials have said they will consider such a modification, but have not committed to it.

Reported Suicide Is Latest Shock at Freddie Mac

• • cebook
  • Mixx
  • MySpace
  • ahoo! Buzz
  • Permalink
  • 
    

By CHARLES DUHIGG and JACK HEALY

Published: April 22, 2009

The pressures were already immense when David B. Kellermann was promoted to the top financial position at the mortgage giant Freddie Mac last September. Then they got even worse.

Freddie Mac, via Reuters

David B. Kellermann was found at his home in Virginia.

Multimedia

Back Story: Charles Duhigg on the Apparent Suicide of Freddie Mac's Finance Chief.

Related

Times Topics: Freddie Mac

Enlarge This Image

Doug Mills/The New York Times

Police on Wednesday outside the Vienna, Va., home where David B. Kellermann, the acting chief financial officer of Freddie Mac, was found dead.

Mr. Kellermann’s boss and other top executives were ousted when the Treasury secretary seized Freddie Mac and its sibling company, Fannie Mae; others left on their own and were not replaced. Soon President Obama told the companies they were responsible for carrying out some of his programs to revive the economy, in addition to keeping the housing market afloat by buying and selling hundreds of thousands of mortgages a month.

Mr. Kellermann, 41, began working nonstop, sometimes returning home only to change clothes, colleagues say. He was losing weight and telling friends that it seemed impossible to appease everyone — regulators, lawmakers, investors and other executives — given their competing demands. Someone was always angry with him, he told one friend. And no matter how many hours everyone worked, it seemed as if the economy and homeowners were still slipping farther into the abyss.

Then early this month, Mr. Kellermann and other executives at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae became the focus of intense scrutiny when lawmakers learned they would receive bonuses totaling $210 million. Mr. Kellermann was set to receive $850,000 over 16 months. Reporters and camera crews showed up at his home in Vienna, an affluent Virginia suburb of Washington. Fearing that someone might attack his house, his wife or their 5-year-old daughter, he asked the company for a security detail.

Early on Wednesday, Mr. Kellermann went to the basement of his brick home and hanged himself, according to people familiar with the situation who were not authorized to speak. His body was removed five hours later, through a throng of neighbors, television crews and others.

His colleagues, some of whom learned of his death on the radio commuting to work, bought and sold about 8,500 mortgages that day, their frantic pace interrupted only by an 11 a.m. meeting for employees who wanted to share memories of a deceased friend.

“David was such an honest and humble person,” said Tim Bitsberger, Freddie Mac’s treasurer until he left in December. “He had an incredible commitment to this company and trying to get the economy back on track.”

“It just doesn’t make sense,” Mr. Bitsberger said.

The roots and causes of suicide are often unclear. It is not known if Mr. Kellermann succumbed to the pressures of his job. But in the aftermath of his death, it is plain that at Freddie Mac, as at many of the companies in the center of this economic storm, there are forces so strong they can overwhelm almost anyone.

At General Motors, executives are fighting to save a company that has cut their salaries and suspended their vacations. On Wall Street, professionals are demonized and then asked to work overtime to repair the damage colleagues have wrought. These professionals may not deserve tears, particularly compared to the millions of Americans who have lost their jobs and their homes. But Mr. Kellermann’s death is a reminder that those suffering in this crisis reside in every neighborhood, from the squalid to the opulent.

“The pressure right now is relentless,” said a Freddie Mac executive who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak. “Everyone in the financial sector, regardless of where you work, is constantly told both that this is our fault, and that we have to work as hard as possible, otherwise the nation will fall apart.”

Mr. Kellermann, who spent more than 16 years at Freddie Mac and saw his stock and options decline precipitously last year, was at the intersection of some of the most difficult issues facing the company. Last month the company’s chief executive, David M. Moffett, resigned in part, he said, because federal regulators were using Freddie Mac to carry out economic policy at the expense of nursing the publicly held company back to financial health. The company has not had a president since 2007.

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which together own or back more than half of the home mortgages in the country, have been hobbled by skyrocketing loan defaults and have received a total of $60 billion in federal aid since they were taken over last fall.

Mr. Kellermann was also working in a poisonous political atmosphere. In addition to taking criticism over the bonuses, he was recently involved in tense conversations with the company’s federal regulator over its routine financial disclosures, according to people close to those discussions who also spoke on condition of anonymity. Freddie Mac executives wanted to emphasize to investors that they believed the company was being run to benefit the government, rather than shareholders. The company’s regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Authority, had pushed to play down that language. Freddie Mac reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission that changes it had made in practices to help the government “have increased our expenses or caused us to forgo revenue opportunities.”

Mr. Kellermann was also required to certify Freddie Mac’s filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company disclosed in March that there was a continuing federal investigation of its accounting, disclosure and corporate governance practices. That investigation is currently being overseen by the United States attorney’s office for the Eastern District of Virginia, which declined to comment. A spokesman, David Palombi, said Freddie Mac knew of no link between the death and the legal inquiries.

A spokeswoman for the Fairfax County Police Department in Virginia said there were no signs of foul play in Mr. Kellermann’s death. The police would not comment on whether a note had been found, but a spokesman said that nothing except the body had been removed from the house.

Stephen Labaton contributed reporting.

Slump Creates Lack of Mobility for Americans

• • igg
  • Facebook
  • Mixx
  • MySpace
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Permalink
  • 
    

By SAM ROBERTS

Published: April 22, 2009

Stranded by the nationwide slump in housing and jobs, fewer Americans are moving, the Census Bureau said Wednesday.

The bureau found that the number of people who changed residences declined to 35.2 million from March 2007 to March 2008, the lowest number since 1962, when the nation had 120 million fewer people.

Experts said the lack of mobility was of concern on two fronts. It suggests that Americans were unable or unwilling to follow any job opportunities that may have existed around the country, as they have in the past. And the lack of movement itself, they said, could have an impact on the economy, reducing the economic activity generated by moves.

Joseph S. Tracy, research director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the lack of mobility meant less income for movers and the people they employ and less spending on renovation and on durable goods like appliances. But, Dr. Tracy said, the most troubling prospect is that people were no longer able to relocate for work.

“The thing that would be of deeper concern is if job-related moves are getting suppressed and workers are not getting re-sorted to the jobs that best use their skills,” he said. “As the labor market started to improve, if mobility stays low, you can worry about the allocation of workers.”

How long will the downturn in mobility last? Michael J. Hicks, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University in Indiana, said, “I think it will be well into next year before we see any growth in migration, and that still may be optimistic.”

“If the stock market rebounds before the housing market, we might see a scramble for retirement housing,” Professor Hicks added.

The American Moving and Storage Association said the number of people changing residences had been dropping for four years and fell 17.7 percent from 2007 to 2008. The first quarter of 2009 is likely to be even worse, the trade group said.

“We saw a standstill in new home construction, so there was no domino effect from people moving,” John Bisney, a spokesman, said. “People are a little nervous about getting a mortgage. And the recession is so broad-based it’s not as if you can pull up stakes and move to a part of the country that’s growing.”

Jed Smith, a research director for the National Association of Realtors, said that on average it took a homeowner 10.5 months to sell a house in 2008 compared with 8.9 months in 2007.

“Generally speaking, people move based on the economy,” Dr. Smith said, “and obviously the economy in 2008 was mediocre to bad. That would tend to have a negative impact on people’s desire, ability or need to move.”

In its report Wednesday, the Census Bureau said that Americans’ mobility rate, which has been declining for decades, fell to 11.9 percent in 2008, down from 13.2 percent the year before and setting a post-World War II record low. Moves between states dropped the most, to half the rate recorded at the beginning of this decade.

In addition, immigration from overseas was the lowest in more than a decade, which experts attributed to the lack of jobs. Over all, movers were more likely than nonmovers to be unemployed, renters, poor and black.

For decades, several trends have driven a decline in American wanderlust.

Home ownership rates have risen, and owners are typically less likely to move than renters. Two-earner families have become more common, and finding employment for both spouses in a new location can be challenging. Americans’ median age has been climbing, and it is younger people who usually move most often.

“It does show that the U.S. population, often thought of as the most mobile in the developed world, seems to have been stopped dead in its tracks due a confluence of constraints posed by a tough economic spell,” said William H. Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution.

Dr. Frey predicted that the foreclosure crisis might spur more local mobility, within or between counties, as families shift to rented quarters or move in with relatives.

Robin Camacho, a Las Vegas real estate agent, expressed surprise at the census mobility figures, given the high foreclosure rates in his city. “If people are losing their homes and tenants are being forced to vacate,” Ms. Camacho said, “then this just doesn’t jibe with what I intuitively think. I see people moving constantly because they have no choice.”

Patrick Bonnema, sales manager for Anderson Brothers Moving and Storage in Chicago, said local residential moves were “down drastically over the last six months.”

“I’m not surprised this has happened,” Mr. Bonnema said. “Look at the economy, look at the banking industry, look at the credit industry. People can’t move, what are they going to do? Their homes are now worth less than what they originally paid, and they don’t want to take a loss.”

Those surveyed by the census said they moved for housing, family and job reasons, in that order.

Suburbs gained 2.2 million movers while major cities lost 2 million. Immigrants, though, appeared less likely to settle in the suburbs in 2008, compared with recent years.

“The housing crunch and its impact on employment in construction, plus the demise of sub-prime lending, gave immigrants fewer opportunities for living and working in the suburbs than in the immediately preceding years,” Dr. Frey said.

The influx of 1.1 million overseas foreigners was the lowest since the 780,000 in 1995.

Among movers, the South recorded the largest net gain, but the gain was the smallest in five years.

Steve Freiss contributed reporting from Las Vegas; Rebecca Cathcart from Los Angeles; and Lori Rotenberk from Chicago.

FMI: TRACKING GLOBALIZATION

News del FMI, tracking globalization

CHILE: REGLA ESTRUCTURAL, FMI

Este es un interesante articulo del FMI sobre la ecuacion de la regla estructural del deficit de Chile, incluye el efecto cobre,g