"R. Unido creará nuevas cadenas de bancos" : http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/economia/2009/11/091031_0056_nuevos_bancos_gm.shtml?s
Hace 2 horas
Evolucion del dolar contra el euro
1. SECCION:materias primas en linea:precios
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/gfms.gif) |
METALES A 30 DIAS click sobre la imagen
(click sur l´image)
3. PRIX DU CUIVRE
Cobre a 30 d
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-30d.gif)
|
6. precio zinc
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/zinc-d.gif) |
7. prix du plomb
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/lead-d.gif)
|
8. nickel price
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-nickel-30d.gif)
|
azucar
mercados,materias primas,azucar,precios y graficos azucar i otros
2 feb 2010
CHINA: PRODUCCION CRECE
"La producción china pisa el acelerador" : http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/economia/2009/11/091101_1513_china_industria_pea.shtml?s
dubai: impacto crisis
"EE.UU. se suma a caídas bursátiles" : http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/economia/2009/11/091127_0934_mercados_dubai_jm.shtml?s
spain: air comet quiebra
"Pasajeros de Air Comet podrán volar" : http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/internacional/2009/12/091223_1224_comet_fletes_mt.shtml?s
Quebro
FORD VENDE VOLVO A CHINA?
"Ford venderá Volvo a empresa china" : http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/economia/2009/12/091223_1355_volvo_china_mt.shtml?s
china 2010
"Para China 2010 es \" : http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/economia/2010/01/100102_china_2010_ra.shtml?s
PERU: CONDENA CRIMINAL
"Ratifican condena de 25 años a Fujimori" : http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/america_latina/2010/01/100103_0656_fujimori_condena_gm.shtml?s
ISLANDIA: REFERENDO DEUDA EXTERNA
"Islandia: proponen referendo sobre deuda" : http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/internacional/2010/01/100102_0313_islandia_referendo_lf.shtml?s
JAPON: JAPAN AIRLINES QUIEBRA
"Japan Airlines se declara en bancarrota" : http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/economia/2010/01/100119_japan_airlines_amab.shtml?s
Krugman y la fatal amenaza de repetir el 1937 ( Mc Coy)
Krugman y la fatal amenaza de repetir el 1937
@S. McCoy - 11/01/2010
Quizá el artículo académico que más controversia ha generado en el mundo anglosajón durante el periodo navideño y sus postreras estribaciones ha sido el publicado por Paul Krugman en el New York Times bajo el título de That 1937 Feeling que, en castellano, se podría traducir como Ese aroma a 1937 (frente a Esa Sensación de 1937 que utilizaba ayer El País en su suplemento Negocios y que nos viene hoy al pelo).
En él, el autor realiza una severa admonición a aquellos que toman los positivos datos actuales de la economía norteamericana como definitivos, cuando a su juicio no lo son, y censura que, en consecuencia, prevean y hasta propugnen un endurecimiento de las actuales políticas monetarias y fiscales expansivas en Estados Unidos a lo largo del ejercicio 2010, algo que anticipa alguien tan bien informado tradicionalmente sobre los movimientos de la FED como Bill Gross de PIMCO.
Según se encarga de recordarnos el Nobel, las falsas alertas son comunes en momentos de incertidumbre como los actuales. Ocurrieron en el año 1996 en Japón, con datos trimestrales de crecimiento anualizados del 12% que llevaron a muchos a lanzar las campanas al vuelo, o en 2002 en la propia economía norteamericana cuando datos aislados llevaron a aumentos del PIB en base anual cercanos al 6%. En ambos casos los avisos fueron precipitados. (Interesante, en este sentido, la última carta de John Mauldin).
Sin embargo, nunca tal error de interpretación tuvo tal impacto como en 1937 cuando la declaración oficial de la salida de la Gran Depresión, y su materialización en forma de subidas de tipos de interés y ajustes presupuestarios, provocaron una nueva desaceleración de la actividad económica estadounidense que sólo un evento excepcional como la Segunda Guerra Mundial fue capaz de enderezar. Una equivocación que, en su opinión, estaría a punto de repetirse.
¿Por qué? Para determinar la fortaleza o no de una recuperación económica, subraya, no basta con extrapolar los datos que excepcionalmente se pueden derivar de fenómenos puntuales como una recuperación de los inventarios empresariales, sino que hay que fijar la vista en los elementos esenciales del PIB: consumo e inversión privadas y mercado exterior.
Pues bien, mientras que el primero continúa deprimido por la caída en el valor de los activos, el repago de deudas y las dudas sobre el futuro laboral de los particulares (impresionante el dato de contracción de crédito al consumo US en la víspera de las Navidades), la segunda se retrae ante el exceso de capacidad excendentaria tanto productiva como comercial que hay en el sistema. Si bien es verdad que la depreciación del dólar ha ayudado a las ventas exteriores, el hecho de que socios comerciales del calibre de China mantengan su moneda ligada al billete verde, impiden que la divisa se convierta en un argumento competitivo en las relaciones de intercambio con ellos.
El resultado, concluye, es una combinación explosiva de precaria mejora de los fundamentales y presión insistente para arreglar el abultado déficit público y establecer estrategias de salida para la laxa política del precio del dinero actual. Una insistencia académica que amenaza con concretarse en 2010 y que, para Krugman, puede provocar que Estados Unidos -y con él gran parte del mundo desarrollado- no salga de las catacumbas de la recesión en una buena temporada.
Hasta aquí lo afirmado por el Nobel. He de decir que estoy de acuerdo con el diagnóstico sobre el estado de la economía que hace pero no con su voluntad de hacer permanecer en el tiempo las circunstancias excepcionales que ahora la presiden. Personalmente creo que es necesaria una subida paulatina del precio del dinero y que se corrijan desde ya los elevados desequilibrios presupuestarios. Por varios motivos:
-
En la medida en que lo circunstancial permanece en el tiempo se convierte en estructural y, por tanto, la posibilidad de retornar al estado anterior de las cosas se complica. En tanto que el rol económico descanse más y más en una financiación subvencionada y en el subsidio público, menos se incentivará la competencia y la labor emprendedora. No hay destrucción creativa, sino agonía selectiva. -
La realidad ha demostrado el fracaso de las recetas tanto monetaristas como keynesianas en el entorno actual. No hay nada comparable. En el primer caso por la trampa de liquidez que provocan las incertidumbres que sobre el balance de la banca, activo-calidad pasivo-solvencia, y su cuenta de resultados existen en la actualidad. En el segundo como consecuencia del carácter asistencial y no productivo de muchas de las ayudas estatales acordadas. -
Si el problema de base es el endeudamiento excesivo del sistema, hay que actuar sobre su reducción y no sobre su permanencia. Es indudable que los bajos tipos de interés ayudan a mantener niveles de financiación ajena que, de otro modo, serían inasumibles. Por otra parte, sustituir endeudamiento privado, que se reduce con cuentagotas, por más apalancamiento público supone, simplemente, reemplazar un efecto directo sobre los particulares por otro indirecto a través de mayores impuestos o mermas en su estado del bienestar en el futuro. -
Pese a todas las medidas actuales no sólo no se crea empleo sino que se destruye. De hecho las empresas siguen ajustando plantillas a la baja. Resulta especialmente significativo este compendio de gráficos de la realidad laboral norteamericana. Desde 1985, nunca ha habido menos estadounidenses trabajando. De ahí que la tasa de paro no aumente pese a los malos datos. No cabe superar la crisis sin entender que ha nacido un nuevo capitalismo, que no es más social sino más global, debido a la incorporación al sistema de China e India. Cabe pensar en la existencia de un paro estructural por encima de la media histórica (de ahí que cada vez sea más difícil recuperar los niveles de empleados existentes al inicio de cada recesión) consecuencia de un exceso de capacidad que ha venido para quedarse. -
Aunque situaciones críticas como las recientemente denunciadas por los gobernadores tanto del estado de Nueva York como del de California (NY Times, New Year but no Relief for Strapped States) pudieran llevar a pensar en la necesidad de un segundo plan de ayudas como el propugnado por Krugman, el envés de la moneda sería el aumento de la percepción de riesgo de la economía norteamericana que, necesariamente, llevaría a tipos de interés más altos, restando, por tanto, la política fiscal eficacia a la monetaria. Llega un punto en el que la compatibilidad entre ambas no es posible.
Paradójicamente es la economía financiera, con su constante inflación de activos, incluidas las materias primas, la que puede acelerar el proceso de desmantelamiento del estado de excepción que actualmente preside la actividad de gobiernos y bancos centrales a nivel mundial. Impresionante la reacción de las bolsas el viernes al dato de empleo. De hecho, si las cosas continúan como desde marzo, lo más probable sea que la transición ordenada que McCoy propugna torne, por el contrario, en un movimiento más virulento que nos condene a un futuro incierto resultado del nacimiento de nuevas burbujas. Main Street sucumbirá entonces ante la indolencia de Wall Street. Una vez más. Buena semana a todos.
HAITI: CIFRAS
"Desastre de Haití en cifras" : http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/america_latina/2010/01/100119_1150_haiti_terremoto_cifras_alf.shtml?s
citigroup: perdidas 2009
"Citigroup termina 2009 con pérdidas" : http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/economia/2010/01/100119_1630_citigroup_sao.shtml?s
COLOMBIA: PROBLEMA CON INVERSION EN VENEZUELA
"Colombia casi no invierte en Venezuela"
: http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/economia/2010/01/100119_1630_colombia_venezuela_inversiones_alf.shtml?s
Macroperu Sobre la Importancia de las TICs en la EconomÃa del conocimiento.
http://ideas.repec.org/h/izm/prcdng/200804.html
The Importance of ICT for the Knowledge Economy: A Total Factor
Productivity Analysis for Selected OECD Countries
Ä smail Seki
Ege University, Turkey
Abstract
Science, technology and innovation have become key factors contributing to economic
growth in both advanced and developing economies. In the knowledge economy,
information circulates at the international level through trade in goods and services,
direct investment and technology flows, and the movement of people. Information and
communication technologies (ICT) have been at the heart of economic changes for more
than a decade. ICT sector plays an important role, notably by contributing to rapid
technological progress and productivity growth. Firms use ICTs to organize
transnational networks in response to international competition and the increasing need
for strategic interaction. As a result, multinational firms are a primary vehicle of the
everspreading process of globalization. New technologies and their implementation in
productive activities are changing the economic structure and contributing to
productivity increases in OECD economies.
Economic competitiveness depends on productivity level and in the knowledge
economy, ICT sectors determine the productivity level. As a result , we can say that the
power of economic competitiveness of a country depends on the productivity of its ICT
sector.
There are two ways to improve the TFP of ICT and to improve the power of
competitiveness. First of all, if the selected countries solve their inefficiency problem by
reallocation of resources, they can improve their TFP of the ICT sector and as a result
they can be more competitive. Secondly, the technological improvement in these
countries creates an expectation about increasing TFP of ICT sector for future. If there
will be a sustainable technological improvement by innovation, it will cause a
sustainable increase in the TFP of ICT sector and as a result it will cause a sustainable
increase in competitiveness.
The Importance of ICT for the Knowledge Economy: A Total Factor
Productivity Analysis for Selected OECD Countries
Ä smail Seki
Ege University, Turkey
Abstract
Science, technology and innovation have become key factors contributing to economic
growth in both advanced and developing economies. In the knowledge economy,
information circulates at the international level through trade in goods and services,
direct investment and technology flows, and the movement of people. Information and
communication technologies (ICT) have been at the heart of economic changes for more
than a decade. ICT sector plays an important role, notably by contributing to rapid
technological progress and productivity growth. Firms use ICTs to organize
transnational networks in response to international competition and the increasing need
for strategic interaction. As a result, multinational firms are a primary vehicle of the
everspreading process of globalization. New technologies and their implementation in
productive activities are changing the economic structure and contributing to
productivity increases in OECD economies.
Economic competitiveness depends on productivity level and in the knowledge
economy, ICT sectors determine the productivity level. As a result , we can say that the
power of economic competitiveness of a country depends on the productivity of its ICT
sector.
There are two ways to improve the TFP of ICT and to improve the power of
competitiveness. First of all, if the selected countries solve their inefficiency problem by
reallocation of resources, they can improve their TFP of the ICT sector and as a result
they can be more competitive. Secondly, the technological improvement in these
countries creates an expectation about increasing TFP of ICT sector for future. If there
will be a sustainable technological improvement by innovation, it will cause a
sustainable increase in the TFP of ICT sector and as a result it will cause a sustainable
increase in competitiveness.
__._,_.___
__,_._,___
--
http://www.betaggarcian.blogspot.com/
WSJ.com - Los bancos centrales defienden su autonomía
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CHINA: SEGUNDA ECONOMIA
"China, en camino a ser la segunda economía" : http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/economia/2010/01/100120_0438_china_economia_jaw.shtml?s
ECONOMIA MUNDIAL: LO QUE LA CRISIS SE LLEVO
"Economía mundial: lo que la crisis se llevó"
: http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/economia/2010/01/091215_crisissellevo_economia_impacto_crisis_mj.shtml?s
Macroperu Krugman opina sobre reelección de Bernanke en la FED
..
The Bernanke Conundrum
A funny thing happened on the way to the Bernanke confirmation: the vote in Massachusetts turned an easy coronation into a tough fight. And this isn't one of those cases where everyone who knows something is on one side. Look at two of my favorite econobloggers: the very judicious Calculated Risk says "We can do better", while Brad DeLong says, "Don't block Ben."
Where am I? Right now, I'm agonizing — which isn't a place I ever expected to be, and not just because Bernanke hired me at Princeton.
The pro case is obvious: Ben Bernanke is a great economist, whose work on monetary economics has been a crucial guide to action in this crisis, and he applied his academic insights forcefully in 2008 and early 2009, helping pull the world back from the brink.
Against that are two factors. One is that he completely failed to see the trouble building as the housing bubble inflated — and no, it wasn't one of those things nobody could have predicted, since a lot of reputable economists were warning almost frantically about the bubble. True, Bernanke's failure to see what was right in front of his nose was shared by almost everyone at the Fed — but as I'll explain in a moment, that's actually part of the problem.
The second is that since the acute phase of the crisis came to an end, and especially since his renomination, Bernanke has seemed out of touch with the severe problems that remain. He hasn't engaged in any self-criticism, at a time when we really need to know that policymakers can learn from their mistakes. He hasn't been a strong voice for financial reform. And most important from my point of view, he has seemed deeply worried about defending himself against the inflation hawks, not at all concerned with the question of whether the Fed is doing all it should to fight catastrophically high unemployment. (It isn't).
As I see it, the two things that worry me about Bernanke stem from the same cause: to a greater degree than I had hoped, he has been assimilated by the banking Borg. In 2005, respectable central bankers dismissed worries about a housing bubble, ignoring the evidence; in the winter of 2009-2010, respectable central bankers are worried about nonexistent inflation rather than actually existing unemployment. And Bernanke, alas, has become too much of a respectable central banker.
That said, however, what is the alternative? Calculated Risk says we can do better. But can we, really?
It's not that hard to think of people who have the intellectual chops for the job of Fed chair but aren't fully part of the Borg. But it's very hard to think of people with those qualities who have any chance of actually being confirmed, or of carrying the FOMC with them even if named as chairman (which is one reason why this suggestion is crazy). Does it make sense to deny Bernanke reappointment simply in order to appoint someone who would follow the same policies?
And yet, the Fed really needs to be shaken out of its complacency.
As I said, I'm agonizing.
Where am I? Right now, I'm agonizing — which isn't a place I ever expected to be, and not just because Bernanke hired me at Princeton.
The pro case is obvious: Ben Bernanke is a great economist, whose work on monetary economics has been a crucial guide to action in this crisis, and he applied his academic insights forcefully in 2008 and early 2009, helping pull the world back from the brink.
Against that are two factors. One is that he completely failed to see the trouble building as the housing bubble inflated — and no, it wasn't one of those things nobody could have predicted, since a lot of reputable economists were warning almost frantically about the bubble. True, Bernanke's failure to see what was right in front of his nose was shared by almost everyone at the Fed — but as I'll explain in a moment, that's actually part of the problem.
The second is that since the acute phase of the crisis came to an end, and especially since his renomination, Bernanke has seemed out of touch with the severe problems that remain. He hasn't engaged in any self-criticism, at a time when we really need to know that policymakers can learn from their mistakes. He hasn't been a strong voice for financial reform. And most important from my point of view, he has seemed deeply worried about defending himself against the inflation hawks, not at all concerned with the question of whether the Fed is doing all it should to fight catastrophically high unemployment. (It isn't).
As I see it, the two things that worry me about Bernanke stem from the same cause: to a greater degree than I had hoped, he has been assimilated by the banking Borg. In 2005, respectable central bankers dismissed worries about a housing bubble, ignoring the evidence; in the winter of 2009-2010, respectable central bankers are worried about nonexistent inflation rather than actually existing unemployment. And Bernanke, alas, has become too much of a respectable central banker.
That said, however, what is the alternative? Calculated Risk says we can do better. But can we, really?
It's not that hard to think of people who have the intellectual chops for the job of Fed chair but aren't fully part of the Borg. But it's very hard to think of people with those qualities who have any chance of actually being confirmed, or of carrying the FOMC with them even if named as chairman (which is one reason why this suggestion is crazy). Does it make sense to deny Bernanke reappointment simply in order to appoint someone who would follow the same policies?
And yet, the Fed really needs to be shaken out of its complacency.
As I said, I'm agonizing.
__._,_.___
--
http://www.betaggarcian.blogspot.com/
Suscribirse a:
Entradas (Atom)
