dow jones one year

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http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/stocks/tools/analysis_tools.asp

KRUGMAN:WALL STREET VOODOO

OP-ED COLUMNIST

Wall Street Voodoo

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By PAUL KRUGMAN

Published: January 18, 2009

Old-fashioned voodoo economics — the belief in tax-cut magic — has been banished from civilized discourse. The supply-side cult has shrunk to the point that it contains only cranks, charlatans, and Republicans.

Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Paul Krugman

Go to Columnist Page »Blog: The Conscience of a Liberal

Related

Times Topics: Credit Crisis - Bailout Plan

But recent news reports suggest that many influential people, including Federal Reserve officials, bank regulators, and, possibly, members of the incoming Obama administration, have become devotees of a new kind of voodoo: the belief that by performing elaborate financial rituals we can keep dead banks walking.

To explain the issue, let me describe the position of a hypothetical bank that I’ll call Gothamgroup, or Gotham for short.

On paper, Gotham has $2 trillion in assets and $1.9 trillion in liabilities, so that it has a net worth of $100 billion. But a substantial fraction of its assets — say, $400 billion worth — are mortgage-backed securities and other toxic waste. If the bank tried to sell these assets, it would get no more than $200 billion.

So Gotham is a zombie bank: it’s still operating, but the reality is that it has already gone bust. Its stock isn’t totally worthless — it still has a market capitalization of $20 billion — but that value is entirely based on the hope that shareholders will be rescued by a government bailout.

Why would the government bail Gotham out? Because it plays a central role in the financial system. When Lehman was allowed to fail, financial markets froze, and for a few weeks the world economy teetered on the edge of collapse. Since we don’t want a repeat performance, Gotham has to be kept functioning. But how can that be done?

Well, the government could simply give Gotham a couple of hundred billion dollars, enough to make it solvent again. But this would, of course, be a huge gift to Gotham’s current shareholders — and it would also encourage excessive risk-taking in the future. Still, the possibility of such a gift is what’s now supporting Gotham’s stock price.

A better approach would be to do what the government did with zombie savings and loans at the end of the 1980s: it seized the defunct banks, cleaning out the shareholders. Then it transferred their bad assets to a special institution, the Resolution Trust Corporation; paid off enough of the banks’ debts to make them solvent; and sold the fixed-up banks to new owners.

The current buzz suggests, however, that policy makers aren’t willing to take either of these approaches. Instead, they’re reportedly gravitating toward a compromise approach: moving toxic waste from private banks’ balance sheets to a publicly owned “bad bank” or “aggregator bank” that would resemble the Resolution Trust Corporation, but without seizing the banks first.

Sheila Bair, the chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, recently tried to describe how this would work: “The aggregator bank would buy the assets at fair value.” But what does “fair value” mean?

In my example, Gothamgroup is insolvent because the alleged $400 billion of toxic waste on its books is actually worth only $200 billion. The only way a government purchase of that toxic waste can make Gotham solvent again is if the government pays much more than private buyers are willing to offer.

Now, maybe private buyers aren’t willing to pay what toxic waste is really worth: “We don’t have really any rational pricing right now for some of these asset categories,” Ms. Bair says. But should the government be in the business of declaring that it knows better than the market what assets are worth? And is it really likely that paying “fair value,” whatever that means, would be enough to make Gotham solvent again?

What I suspect is that policy makers — possibly without realizing it — are gearing up to attempt a bait-and-switch: a policy that looks like the cleanup of the savings and loans, but in practice amounts to making huge gifts to bank shareholders at taxpayer expense, disguised as “fair value” purchases of toxic assets.

Why go through these contortions? The answer seems to be that Washington remains deathly afraid of the N-word — nationalization. The truth is that Gothamgroup and its sister institutions are already wards of the state, utterly dependent on taxpayer support; but nobody wants to recognize that fact and implement the obvious solution: an explicit, though temporary, government takeover. Hence the popularity of the new voodoo, which claims, as I said, that elaborate financial rituals can reanimate dead banks.

Unfortunately, the price of this retreat into superstition may be high. I hope I’m wrong, but I suspect that taxpayers are about to get another raw deal — and that we’re about to get another financial rescue plan that fails to do the job.

CITI:SIGUEN LOS PROBLEMAS

Worries over Citigroup mount 

Wed Jan 14, 10:30 am ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Citigroup Inc shares tumbled Wednesday as investors and analysts worried about whether the bank can be profitable and function effectively as it unravels its business model.

The bank on Wednesday said it will report fourth-quarter results on January 16, six days earlier than originally planned. It is expected to post a multibillion-dollar loss.

Rival JPMorgan Chase & Co also moved up its earnings release six days and is due to report on Thursday.

Once the world's largest bank, Citigroup is expected to shrink by about a third as it focuses on corporate, investment and retail banking and trims its trading operations, a person familiar with the plan said.

Citigroup will also put businesses and assets it no longer wants into a separate structure with an eye toward eventual sales, the person said.

The disposals will mark an about-face for Chief Executive Vikram Pandit, who had endorsed retaining large parts of the "financial supermarket" created by former CEO Sanford "Sandy" Weill, who created Citigroup in a 1998 merger.

A drumbeat of analysts and investors has questioned whether Citigroup or market developments will give Pandit, who became chief executive in December 2007, time to finish the job.

Citigroup has received two lifelines from the U.S. Treasury Department's Troubled Asset Relief Program, getting $25 billion in October and $20 billion in November. The second infusion involved an agreement by the government to share in some losses, in exchange for preferred stock and warrants.

On Tuesday, Citigroup announced plans to combine its Smith Barney brokerageand other businesses with Morgan Stanley's wealth management unit, bolstering capital.

Morgan Stanley will pay $2.7 billion to Citigroup and take a 51 percent stake in the joint venture, with the ability to buy all of it after five years.

"There is no other way to view this move, in our opinion, than as a way for Citigroup to raise cash prior to its fourth-quarter earnings release," Oppenheimer & Co analyst Meredith Whitney wrote. She said she expects further asset sales or spinoffs as Citigroup's balance sheet losses mount.

But in tight credit markets, Citigroup's ability to spin off assets may be limited, and the bank is still exposed to a deteriorating economy that is expected to cause credit losses, such as in credit cards, to soar further.

David Trone, an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton, said major asset sales are "not even feasible" in this environment. He said the only option is to split Citigroup into separate, publicly-traded companies.

"By overhyping Citi's intentions, all today's reports will do, in our view, is establish false expectations in the market," he wrote. "When the market realizes that management has no intention or no ability to find buyers in any event, we see Citi's stock falling in disappointment."

Eight analysts who issued estimates in the last week forecast, on average, that Citigroup would report a fourth-quarter loss of $1.00 per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

In morning trading, Citigroup shares fell 82 cents, or 13.9 percent, to $5.08 on theNew York Stock Exchange.

The annual cost of protecting $10 million of Citigroup debt against default for five years rose to $330,000 from $265,000 on Tuesday, according to Phoenix Partners Group.

(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel; Additional reporting by Dena Aubin and Dan Wilchins; editing by John Wallace)

UK:CARROS NO SE VENDEN, FOTO STOCKS

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/gallery/2009/jan/16/unsold-cars?picture=341883529

Fwd: Alerta de Google: NYSE

Alerta de Noticias de Google para: NYSE

BHP Billiton descubre yacimiento cuprífero de 1.000Mt en Escondida ... Business News Americas - Chile El gigante multinacional de recursos BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP, LSE: BLT) informó haber realizado un hallazgo de pórfidos en la mina de cobre chilena Es.. ... Ver todos los artículos sobre este tema

Utilidades netas de Citi en Latinoamérica caen 41% el 2008 Business News Americas - Chile Las utilidades netas registradas por las operaciones de Citi (NYSE: C) en Latinoamérica anotaron una caída de 41% el 2008 a US$2.139mn frente a los ... Ver todos los artículos sobre este tema

(EU)RESUMEN SEMANAL: FINANCIERAS DEJAN MALA SEMANA EN EL NYSE Invertia (Argentina) - Argentina MEXICO, Enero. 16.- Los índices en Wall Street presentaron de nuevo un saldo negativo en la semana ante el fuerte castigo que sufrieron las compañías ... Ver todos los artículos sobre este tema

Recortará Hertz 4000 empleos para reducir costos El Semanario Sin Límites - Ciudad de México,Distrito Federal,Mexico Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: HTZ), arrendadora líder mundial de automóviles, anunció un recorte aproximado de 4000 empleados, lo que representa el 13% ... Ver todos los artículos sobre este tema

(BMV comentario apertura) BMV apertura: sin fuerza para sostener ... Invertia (Perú) - Peru Desde temprana hora las noticias comenzaron a fluir, afectando los futuros de las acciones de NYSE y las expectativas de apertura para la BMV. ... Ver todos los artículos sobre este tema

Logra acuerdo definitivo con gobierno para garantías Invertia (Chile) - Chile Citigroup (NYSE: C) informó que ha alcanzado un acuerdo definitivo con el Departamento del Tesoro de EU, la Reserva Federal (FED) y la Corporación Federal ... Ver todos los artículos sobre este tema

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) recibe un nuevo rescate Latinforme - Argentina By Horacio Pozzo El Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) recibió un nuevo rescate por parte del gobierno estadounidense por un monto de US$ 20.000 millones. ... Ver todos los artículos sobre este tema

Alerta web de Google para: NYSE

Cierre NYSE: Gana Dow 0.8% pese castigo a financieras, El Semanario El Semanario, Cierre NYSE: Gana Dow 0.8% pese castigo a financieras, periódico de negocios y economía, Ciudad de México.

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RIN; EVOLUCION, MATUK

El máximo de RIN fue el 17 de Abril de 2008 con US$ 35,741 millones y al 8 de Enero de 2009 es US$ 31,082 millones.   El máximo de PdC fue el 16 de Abril de 2008 con US$ 28,125 millones y al 8 de Enero de 2009 es US$ 21,255 millones.   Para el 17-18 de Abril de 2008 el sector privado mantenía US$ 7,616 millones y al 9 de Enero de 2009 el sector privado mantiene US$ 9,827 millones.   La caída de las RIN es de US$ 4,659 millones, es decir que hace nueve meses el Perú tenia 15% mas divisa extranjera de la que tiene hoy.   La caída de la PdC es de US$ 6,870 millones, es decir que hace nueve meses el gobierno tenia 32% mas divisa extranjera de la que tiene hoy.   Asi mismo, el sector privado esta huyendo de la moneda nacional y ha incrementado en US$ 2,211 millones sus tenencias de divisa extranjera, manteniendo hoy 29% mas divisa extranjera que lo que mantenía hace nueves meses.   RIN = Reservas Internacionales Netas PdC = Posición de Cambio   RIN = Activos de residentes del Perú con el extranjero PdC = Activos del gobierno peruano con el extranjero

BBCMundo.com: Otro salvavidas para Bank of America

BBCMundo.com | Nota recomendada por gonzalo

** Otro salvavidas para Bank of America **
El mayor banco de EE.UU. por activos recibe nuevo paquete de ayuda del gobierno por su fusión con Merrill Lynch.<!-Economía, EE.UU., Bank of America-->
< http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/hi/spanish/business/newsid_7832000/7832930.stm >

** Notificación **
La BBC no se responsabiliza por el contenido del mensaje enviado por su remitente.

Si no quiere recibir más mensajes como éste en el futuro, por favor envíe un correo electrónico a webmasters@bbc.co.uk, con el siguiente texto en inglés: I do not want to receive "E-mail a friend" mailings.

www.bbcmundo.com

BBCMundo.com: Primero la economía

BBCMundo.com | Nota recomendada por gonzalo

** Primero la economía **
Nuevo estudio revela que los hispanos creen que la principal prioridad del gobierno de Obama es resolver la crisis.<!-Mundo USA, Hispanos, Obama-->
< http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/hi/spanish/mundo_usa/newsid_7832000/7832422.stm >

** Notificación **
La BBC no se responsabiliza por el contenido del mensaje enviado por su remitente.

Si no quiere recibir más mensajes como éste en el futuro, por favor envíe un correo electrónico a webmasters@bbc.co.uk, con el siguiente texto en inglés: I do not want to receive "E-mail a friend" mailings.

www.bbcmundo.com

Bush decreta TLC con Perú

Bush decreta TLC con Perú
El presidente de EE.UU. se adelantó al traspaso de mando para poner en vigencia el tratado de libre comercio.<!-Economía, TLC, Perú-->

< http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/hi/spanish/business/newsid_7834000/7834789.stm >

www.bbcmundo.com

USA:RECESION 2009

(from Macroperu list, bseminario)

End of 2008 shows no end of recession

The new year is less than two weeks old but it is already clear that the global economy continued to contract near the end of the preceding year.

The United States economy entered a recession in December 2007 and, if the employment situation is any indication, it does not look like it is recovering yet.

On 9 January, the Labor Department reported that non-farm payroll employment fell by 524,000 in December based on the establishment survey. This means that the total number of jobs lost in 2008 is now estimated at 2.59 million, just a little less than the 2.75 million at the end of World War 2, with 1.9 million jobs lost in just the past four months.

The report also showed that the unemployment rate rose from 6.8 percent in November to 7.2 percent in December, the highest level in almost 16 years, based on data from the household survey. This survey showed employment falling 806,000 last month.

Other indicators corroborate the continuing weakness in the US economy.

On 2 January, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its PMI, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the US, fell from 36.2 in November to 32.4 in December, the lowest level since 1980. Services held up better, as another ISM report on 6 January showed that the non-manufacturing index rose from 37.3 in November to 40.6 in December, a number, though, that still indicates a decline in activity.

The latest data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute also showed that an economic recovery is not imminent. 

Although the ECRI's weekly leading index rose to 109.4 in the week ending 2 January from 108 in the previous week and its annualised growth rate rose to minus 26.8 from minus 28.7 percent, the latter remained deep in negative territory.

The economy in the euro area is also weak. 

On 8 January, Eurostat confirmed that gross domestic product in the euro area fell by 0.2 percent in the third quarter, thus also confirming that the economy is in recession after previously reporting that it had also shrunk by 0.2 percent in the second quarter.

As a result, unemployment in the euro area has begun to rise. The unemployment rate rose to 7.8 percent in November from 7.7 percent in October, according to another report from Eurostat.

The European Commission's business and consumer survey showed that the weakness persisted into the end of 2008. The economic sentiment indicator from the survey for the euro area fell sharply to 67.1 in December from 74.9 in November.

Surveys by Markit Economics showed a similar picture. The eurozone purchasing managers' index for manufacturing fell from 35.6 in November to 33.9 in December, the lowest since the survey was introduced in 1998. The services index declined from 42.5 to 42.1.

It was the same story in Japan.

The Nomura/JMMA Japan purchasing managers index of manufacturing activity fell from 36.7 in November to 30.8 in December, the lowest since the survey began in 2001.

Other data corroborated the negative trend in Japanese manufacturing in the fourth quarter of 2008. Industrial production fell 8.1 percent in November after having fallen 3.1 percent in October.

With Japan's industrial output falling, so almost certainly did its GDP. Data released by the Cabinet Office on 9 January showed that the composite coincidence index fell from 97.7 in October to 94.9 in November. The composite leading index fell from 85.2 to 81.5.

So the US, eurozone and Japanese economies all look as though they contracted in the fourth quarter of 2008 and showed no sign of imminent recovery. It is certainly looking like the global economy will start 2009 on a negative note.

Posted by lim at 10:00 AM  

PERU: CAE NUMERO DE EMPLEOS

http://www.larepublica.pe/files/image/2009/enero/info/19/REEC190109_10
GR.jpg

Se perdieron más de 50 mil empleos en los dos años del actual gobierno. Sectores textil, agroexportador y minero ahora en riesgo por la crisis. Para producir más, las empresas en Lima solo aumentaron las horas de labor de sus empleados, pero no crearon más puestos de trabajo.

Si alguna vez se ha preguntado por qué –a pesar de que el actual 
gobierno se jacta de lograr que el país mantenga grandes niveles de 
crecimiento económico– no se siente que se hayan generado más puestos de trabajo, la respuesta la tienen las estadísticas oficiales. Y es que estas refieren que en los dos años de gestión del presidente Alan García se han perdido, solo en la capital, más de 50 mil puestos de trabajo. 

Según el reciente informe del Instituto Nacional de Estadística e 
Informática (INEI), mientras en el último trimestre del 2006 (octubre-
noviembre-diciembre) el total de la Población Económicamente Activa 
(PEA) Ocupada en Lima Metropolitana ascendió a 4'067,900 
trabajadores, en el último trimestre del 2008 la PEA Ocupada bajó a 
4'012,800 de trabajadores. Es decir, desde el inicio del actual 
gobierno en el 2006 hasta la fecha se han perdido 55,100 empleos. 

Al respecto, el economista Farid Matuk (ex jefe del INEI) sostiene 
que ello se debe a que la mayor productividad de las empresas se basa en dar mayor horas de trabajo a sus empleados, pero no en generar nuevos puestos de trabajo, esto con el fin de ahorrar costos 
laborales. 

"Las empresas sabían que era un boom de crecimiento transitorio, por  eso no se arriesgaron a contratar a más trabajadores. Y ahora, en una  coyuntura de crisis, los despidos serán mayores sobre todo en los  sectores textil, agroexportador y minero", apuntó Matuk. 

Según el abogado laboralista Germán Lora, la falta de generación de 
empleos resulta preocupante, por lo que pide mayor fiscalización al 
Ministerio de Trabajo para reforzar las inspecciones laborales. 

"Debe evitar las sobracargas de trabajo. Que, en lugar de hacer 
trabajar 10 a 12 horas a una persona, la empresa se genere un nuevo 
puesto de trabajo", refirió Lora.

Mal alimentados

Asimismo, Matuk refiere que en los últimos dos años no solo hubo un 
estancamiento en la generación de empleo sino también en la mejora de la calidad de vida de la población, pues el nivel de déficit 
calórico –que mide cuán bien alimentada se encuentra una persona– 
prácticamente no ha retrocedido (ver infografía).

El experto reconoce que, si durante el 2007 hubo una mejora en la 
calidad de la alimentación de las personas, la alta inflación de los 
alimentos reportada en el 2008 (10,6% a nivel nacional) hizo 
retroceder este avance, por lo que ahora la población ya no puede 
acceder a comprar mejores productos. 

"Si antes se discutía en cuánto chorreaba a la población más 
necesitada el crecimiento de nuestra economía, ahora ya ni siquiera 
se puede hablar de ello. El chorreo se acabó", apuntó Matuk.

Crecen brechas entre los trabajadores

De los tres rubros que conforman la PEA Ocupada cabe mencionar el 
crecimiento constante de la PEA adecuadamente empleada (cifra siempre  destacada por el gobierno). Así, en el último trimestre del 2008 la  PEA adecuadamente empleada creció en 8.7% respecto a similar trimestre del año anterior. En contraparte cayeron el subempleo por horas (-6%) y el subempleo por tiempo (-8.4%). 

Al respecto, Matuk refiere que estas cifras solo denotan el 
crecimiento de las brechas económicas, pues mientras crece el empleo para los asalariados de las medianas y grandes empresas (estos trabajadores poseen educación superior), el empleo se reduce para los trabajadores de las pequeñas empresas (en su mayoría solo con educación secundaria). 

Asimismo descartó que el poder adquisitivo de la población haya 
aumentado, pues subrayó que el incremento en las remuneraciones que se han dado en algunos empleos fue contrarrestado por la mayor 
inflación del 2008.

http://www.larepublica.pe/archive/all/larepublica/2009/01/19/10/14/tod
os/14

JAPON_ -8.5% INDUSTRY

Japanese output plunges further

Industrial output in Japan dropped 8.5% in November compared with the previous month, larger than initially estimated.

The drop represents the biggest fall since records of such output 
statistics began in 1953.

Compared with a year earlier, the country's industrial output fell 
16.6%, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said.

Factories were closed and jobs cut as demand for manufactured goods slumped amid the global financial downturn.

Another record fall

It was also reported last week that Japanese machinery orders, seen 
as a barometer of corporate spending activity, had posted their 
steepest monthly fall on record in November.

Core private sector machinery orders, excluding orders from electric 
power firms and shipbuilders, fell 16% from October to 754bn yen 
($8.4bn; £5.8bn).

Japan is the world's second-largest economy, and Asia's largest.

It has been directly hit by the slump in demand caused by the 
spreading global downturn.

The Japanese government has already predicted that the economy will not grow in 2009.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/asia-pacific/7836858.stm

Published: 2009/01/19 07:40:09 GMT

© BBC MMIX

UE:RECESION

January 19, 2009

Long and Deep Recession Forecast in Europe 

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

(Farid matuk, lista macroperu)

BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) -- The European Union said Monday it is facing a ''deep and protracted recession'' with government spending the only source of growth this year.

The 16 nations that use the euro will shrink by 1.9 percent in 2009, 

with the entire EU contracting 1.8 percent, the European Commission 

forecasts.

It says 3.5 million jobs will disappear in the EU in the year ahead 

as business and household spending falls and banks tighten lending.

Government demand and investment will be the only source of growth -- 

but that carries a heavy price tag. Government deficits will hit the 

highest level in 15 years as they borrow heavily to stoke growth.

It says the economy would be faring much worse without current EU 

nations' plans to boost growth by spending 1 percent of gross 

domestic product this year, which should help the economy expand by 

an extra 0.75 percent.

The EU executive said the downswing will be particularly marked in 

Britain and more protracted in Spain.

It warned that the outlook was still exceptionally uncertain, 

describing the economic crisis as the worst faced by the world since 

the second world war.

It predicts a moderate recovery in 2010 when the EU could grow 0.5 

percent. The first green shoots could come in the second half of 2009 

when the global economy may pick up.

But the EU warned that ''the main issue is whether the recovery will 

be a lasting one.''

In Europe, it warned that it could not rule out that ''very weak 

economic sentiment may continue for some time as concerns about a 

long and deep recession spread, particularly with unemployment now on 

the rise.''

Falling exports will hit Germany hard. The Europe's largest economy 

is also the world's biggest exporter and will likely shrink 2.3 

percent this year, it said.

It says the British economy will shrink 2.8 percent this year, while 

France will contract by 1.8 percent. 

BCRP:NOTA SEMANAL AL 13 ENERO

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