Fwd: LEAP/E2020 Press Review on the Global Systemic Crisis

GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS In This Issue: •  The untenable irresponsibility of QE in summer 2012 - the US, British and Japanese central banks out of the game •  2012-2013: End of Euroland's consolidation of its budget-finance operations / Launching of the first pro-active common socio-economic policies / Acceleration of the distinction between Euroland-EU •  BOK unexpectedly cuts key rate to 3% •  Case for US and Global Recession Right Here, Right Now; Recognizing the Limits of Madness; Permabears? •  One-on-One with Robert Shiller •  The Political Anticipation Method©: 10 week online training course •  Brazil Industry Continues in Slide •  Disaster Declared in 26 States as Drought Sears U.S. •  Potential Pentagon cuts cloud Farnborough mood •  Gold the answer to currency wars •  PSA supprime 8 000 emplois en France, dont 6 500 nets •  U.S. moving submersibles to Persian Gulf to oppose Iran •  'For Russia, it's about more than just Syria' •  San Bernardino Becomes Third California City Seeking Bankruptcy •  USDA Slashes Corn Outlook; Forecast Sends Prices Surging •  A very promising e-democracy project, particularly adapted for Euroland future democratic challenges! Featured Links •  LEAP / Europe 2020 •  GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (website) •  Global systemic crisis - All our selected news •  GlobalEurope Press Review (NM blog)         The untenable irresponsibility of QE in summer 2012 - the US, British and Japanese central banks out of the game As we had shown last January in the GEAB N°61, the US Federal Reserve is facing an unsolvable dilemma from now on, whether or not to launch QE3: «Will the Fed have the means to launch a QE3? The answer is "yes" if one takes only the legal, financial and economic factors into account. The way the Fed works in theory allows it to freely take this kind of decision. But even under the conditions of a "traditional" decision, QE3 will not be a choice made with a glad heart. A new cycle of monetization will only be the product of a US sovereign debt downgrade put under the pressure of the credit rating agencies or investors. Will the banks agree to finance the Fed? Such a question is of little relevance. In an idling financial market, lending funds to the Fed will still be a good deal. Admittedly, interest rates are weak, but the risk is zero. However, if one considers the question from the geopolitical and political angle, the answer is "no". LEAP/E2020 - Exerpt GEAB N°66 (June 2012)   2012-2013: End of Euroland's consolidation of its budget-finance operations / Launching of the first pro-active common socio-economic policies / Acceleration of the distinction between Euroland-EU By mid-2012, as we have already indicated in preceding GEAB issues, Euroland will be endowed with a whole set of new national leaders (Spain, Italy, Greece, France, Slovenia, Belgium,…) and the following months there will be elections in Germany. Euroland will thus be led by men and women who, for the most part, came to power after the start of the crisis. LEAP/E2020- Excerpt GEAB N°62 (February 2012)   BOK unexpectedly cuts key rate to 3% Korea's central bank cut the key interest rate for the first time in more than three years on Thursday, underscoring its urgency to cushion the bitter impact of the eurozone debt crisis on the local economy. Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov. Kim Choong-soo and his six fellow policymakers lowered the benchmark 7-day repo rate by a quarter percentage point to 3 percent for July. It marked the first rate cut since February 2009. Korea Times   Case for US and Global Recession Right Here, Right Now; Recognizing the Limits of Madness; Permabears? I think the entire global economy is in recession and said so on July 6, 2012 in Plunging New Orders Suggest Global Recession Has Arrived. However, we need to define the term "recession". Contrary to popular myth, recession does not mean two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Rather, two consecutive quarters of economic contraction is a sufficient, but not necessary condition. Mish's   One-on-One with Robert Shiller The One-on-One series continues with Yale Professor Robert Shiller. He predicted the current housing meltdown which is now five years old. If you think we are at the bottom, think again. When asked, "If the current housing crisis was a baseball game, what inning would it be?" Shiller replied, "Maybe we're in the fourth." USA Watchdog   The Political Anticipation Method©: 10 week online training course LEAP/E2020 is re-launching its political anticipation© training courses! Henceforth these will be completely on line and in three languages (German, English and French) to begin with (Spanish will be added to the list shortly thereafter). LEAP/FEFAP   Brazil Industry Continues in Slide Despite a raft of recent stimulus measures, data released last week showed Brazilian industry continuing to perform poorly over recent months, as it reacts to the crisis in Europe and lower global demand for commodity exports. Industrial production shrank in May for the third consecutive month according to data released by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). The Rio Times   Disaster Declared in 26 States as Drought Sears U.S. The declaration makes farmers and ranchers in 1,016 counties -- about a third of those in the entire country -- eligible for low-interest loans to help them weather the drought, wildfires and other disasters, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said today. The USDA is also changing procedures to allow disaster claims to be processed more quickly and reducing the penalty ranchers are assessed for allowing livestock to graze on land set aside for conservation. Bloomberg   Potential Pentagon cuts cloud Farnborough mood The threat of massive cuts to the U.S. Defense Department budget come early January is casting a cloud of uncertainty over the Farnborough International Airshow taking place this week. In a process known as sequestration, automatic cuts of around a half trillion dollar over the next 10 years will hit the Pentagon unless lawmakers and the White House take action. The cuts would be in addition to a roughly $487 billion scaling back of military spending over the next decade that is already under way. Market Watch   Gold the answer to currency wars Hedge fund manager says yellow metal should be an integral part of investor portfolios. Global capital markets specialist and best-selling author James Rickards says that the ongoing currency wars are a combination of deflationary and inflationary factors that could leave painful scars on the global economy. China Daily   PSA supprime 8 000 emplois en France, dont 6 500 nets Le 1er constructeur automobile français, PSA Peugeot Citroën, a provoqué un choc jeudi en annonçant la fin de la production de voitures en 2014 à l'usine d'Aulnay (Seine-Saint-Denis), où travaillent plus de 3 000 salariés, et un plan global de 8 000 suppressions de postes en France. Libération   U.S. moving submersibles to Persian Gulf to oppose Iran The Navy is rushing dozens of unmanned underwater craft to the Persian Gulf to help detect and destroy mines in a major military buildup aimed at preventing Iran from closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz in the event of a crisis, U.S. officials said... Chicago Tribune   'For Russia, it's about more than just Syria' The conflict in Syria is increasingly putting a strain on relations between Russia and the West. However, experts agree that at the heart of the matter is not just the future of Syria. It's become somewhat of a ritual. If, once in a while, the Russian government does criticize Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Western media and politicians immediately celebrate it as a change of course. Deutsche Welle   San Bernardino Becomes Third California City Seeking Bankruptcy The city council of San Bernardino, California, voted on Tuesday to file for bankruptcy, marking the third time in recent weeks a city in the most populous U.S. state has opted to seek protection from its creditors. The decision by the leaders of San Bernardino, a city of about 210,000 residents approximately 65 miles east of Los Angeles, followed a report by city staff that said the city faced an imminent financial crisis. CNBC   USDA Slashes Corn Outlook; Forecast Sends Prices Surging A scorching drought across the Midwest will slash corn yields by much more than most analysts had expected, the government said in a report that reignited a record rally in grain prices. Field corn plants with wilted and dying leaves stand in a dry field in Idaville, Indiana, U.S. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said the crop will average just 146.0 bushels an acre, down 20 bushels from its June estimate... CNBC   A very promising e-democracy project, particularly adapted for Euroland future democratic challenges! Voxe.org is an international team of young innovators that build online tools that help contextualize, compare and debate political platforms. Their search for country partners.. Voxe.org   This special Press Review reviews articles from the French and Engligh-speaking international online media relating to the unfolding global crisis. It is delivered freely on a weekly basis to 60,000 recipients worldwide. Subscription / Contact: centre@europe2020.org To unsubscribe: click below

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Fwd: [alai-amlatina] El asilo de Ecuador para Assange y la diplomacia Sur-Norte

El asilo de Ecuador para Assange y la diplomacia Sur-Norte

Sally Burch

ALAI AMLATINA, 16/08/2012.- La decisión de Ecuador de conceder el asilo político al fundador de Wikileaks, Julian Assange, anunciada este jueves 16 por el canciller Ricardo Patiño, ha generado una situación poco común, que refleja, sin duda, la realidad cambiante que se vive en el mundo, donde la pretensión de los países del Norte de ser el ejemplo en derechos humanos se revela cada vez más fragilizada.

Es conocido que en EEUU, la "guerra contra el terrorismo" lanzada por el gobierno de George W. Bush ha significado un deterioro progresivo de los derechos civiles, que en buena parte se mantiene con la administración Obama. Por ello, es bastante creíble que Assange podría incurrir el riesgo de indefensión y atentado a sus derechos en caso de ser extraditado a ese país, donde, según alega, un gran jurado estaría preparando en secreto un juicio en su contra por la publicación de miles de documentos internos de las misiones diplomáticas. A la vez, no deja de ser insólito que el gobierno de Reino Unido haya amenazado con violar la inmunidad diplomática de la embajada de Ecuador en Londres para detener a Assange, apoyado en una ley interna (lo cual implicaría desconocer el derecho internacional); si bien luego el canciller William Hague lo descartó, ante las reacciones desatadas.

Un refugio en el Sur

En su extenso comunicado oficial que anuncia el asilo, con base en convenios internacionales, Ecuador explicita los argumentos legales y éticos que justifican su decisión, entre ellas:

"Que Julian Assange es un profesional de la comunicación galardonado internacionalmente por su lucha a favor de la libertad de expresión, la libertad de prensa y de los derechos humanos en general";
"Que existen serios indicios de retaliación por parte del país o los países que produjeron la información divulgada por el señor Assange", y
"Que la evidencia jurídica muestra claramente que, de darse una extradición a los Estados Unidos de América, el señor Assange no tendría un juicio justo, podría ser juzgado por tribunales especiales o militares, y no es inverosímil que se le aplique un trato cruel y degradante, y se le condene a cadena perpetua o a la pena capital, con lo cual no serían respetados sus derechos humanos".

Ecuador señala, además, que no pretende entorpecer la justicia sueca, que ha pedido la extradición de Assange para interrogarlo por una supuesta alegación de abuso sexual, si bien por ahora no pesa ninguna acusación concreta en su contra. Pero que "la fiscalía sueca ha tenido una actitud contradictoria", que afectaría los derechos procesales de Assange. (Entre otros, Suecia declinó la oferta de interrogarlo en la embajada en Londres).

La Declaración menciona, por otra parte, en referencia al hecho que Ecuador ha acogido un alto número de refugiados de la guerra interna en Colombia, que:

"El Alto Comisionado de las Naciones Unidas para los Refugiados ha elogiado la política de refugio del Ecuador, y ha resaltado el hecho significativo de que en el país no se haya confinado en campamentos a estas personas, sino que han sido integradas a la sociedad, en pleno goce de sus derechos humanos y garantías".

Esto último parece aludir a Gran Bretaña, que retiene a miles de solicitantes de asilo en centros de detención, donde pueden permanecer indefinidamente, con el riesgo de ser retornados a sus países de origen si el pedido es rechazado.

Hace dos meses que Assange acudió a la embajada de Ecuador a pedir refugio. Christine Assange, madre de Julian, quien visitó Ecuador a inicios de agosto, respondió ante una pregunta de ALAI que, cuando un funcionario de la cancillería mencionó en forma no oficial que Assange sería bienvenido en Ecuador, hace dos años, en ese momento su hijo no se daba cuenta que podría necesitar el asilo político. "Julian no tiene experiencia en estos asuntos, que América Latina sí conoce, respecto a requerir protección frente a Estados Unidos", afirmó. "Él dio por supuesto que la justicia seguiría su debido cauce".

Al precisar por qué él había escogido a Ecuador como país de refugio, la Sra. Assange destacó el record ejemplar de ese país en derechos humanos en los últimos cinco años. "Son subyacentes en la Constitución y en cada política, incluida la libertad de expresión en todas sus formas, la protección de periodistas y sus fuentes; y a diferencia de algunos países, Ecuador toma en serio estos mandatos de derechos humanos y libertad de expresión", declaró. A ello se añade el fuerte mandato soberano del país, cuyo principal defensor es el mismo presidente Correa, "quien no teme pararse firme frente a presiones de EE.UU." Christine resaltó también el respaldo popular con el cual cuentan estas políticas, que ella constató en una reunión de jóvenes de distintas tendencias políticas, que fueron unánimes en apoyar el asilo para su hijo.

En la misma reunión con la prensa, el abogado español Baltasar Garzón, quien está coordinando la defensa de Assange entre los diferentes países involucrados en el pleito, opinó que Gran Bretaña no tendría justificación legal para no conceder el salvoconducto, una vez concedido el asilo. "Jurídicamente no puede hacerlo porque Ecuador es un estado soberano, libre y democrático, exactamente igual que los Estados Unidos de Norteamérica, ni más ni menos. Es verdad que la posición hegemónica no es similar, y el único elemento que podría influir en esa no concesión de salvoconducto es que entre la fuerza", la cual no se puede utilizar entre Estados democráticos y con un sistema de derechos, opinó; pues de lo contrario significaría viciar totalmente el procedimiento.

Próximos pasos

El futuro de Assange es incierto, si bien Ecuador ha indicado que podría permanecer indefinidamente en la embajada en caso de no obtener el salvoconducto. Sin duda la decisión podría traer represalias para el país. Ante la actitud amenazante del Reino Unido, el canciller Patiño ha pedido a los distintos foros políticos regionales -ALBA, UNASUR, CELAC, OEA- reunirse de urgencia para expresar una posición sobre la amenaza a la soberanía ecuatoriana.

El ALBA emitió un pronunciamiento en rechazo a la amenaza británica a la integridad de la embajada ecuatoriana y a su derecho soberano de administrar su política de asilo. En una entrevista en Quito, el Secretario de este organismo, Rodolfo Sanz, precisó que: "Ecuador otorgó el asilo político porque estima que el caso es político. El caso no es de derecho penal ordinario. Inglaterra tiene que decidir si da el salvoconducto. El asilo político es una figura que está en el derecho internacional acogida por todos los países que son miembros de Naciones Unidas". Recordó que por ello muchos países de América Latina han dado salvoconductos, incluso para personas que han cometido crímenes más graves: como los banqueros prófugos que están en EEUU, e incluso a varios implicados en los asesinatos del 11 de abril del 2002 en Venezuela.

El ALBA anunció una reunión de cancilleres para el sábado 18 de agosto en Guayaquil; mientras UNASUR lo hará el domingo en la misma ciudad. Por su parte, la OEA decidirá el viernes 17 sobre una posible convocatoria de cancilleres para el día 23; Canadá y Estados Unidos no han dado importancia a la discusión y no apoyan la medida de convocar la reunión. Por su parte, Victoria Nuland, vocera del Departamento de Estado de EEUU, rechazó hoy la acusación de que su país esté presionando al Reino Unido para que invada por la fuerza la sede diplomática ecuatoriana en Londres y arreste a Assange, y afirmó que "Es un asunto de las naciones involucradas y nosotros no tenemos planeado interponernos".

Organizaciones sociales de Latinoamérica han dado a conocer que se encuentran en consultas para impulsar una campaña internacional de apoyo a Ecuador y de presión al país europeo, que ha ratificado su determinación de entregar Assange a la justicia sueca.

Lo que no cabe duda es que para un Estado como el Reino Unido, le debe resultar una afrenta intolerable que un pequeño e insignificante país del Sur, como Ecuador, pueda darle lecciones en materia de derechos humanos.


- Sally Burch es periodista británica radicada en Ecuador. Labora en ALAI.


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Fwd: G20 rectifica, pero, quién paga ahora el cuantioso daño causado - un abrazo GS.

http://notthetreasuryview.blogspot.com/2012/06/after-two-wasted-years-g20-pivots-back.html

After two wasted years, the G20 pivots back towards fiscal sanity

By Jonathan Portes

The G-20 has come (almost) full circle. In April 2009 in London, the communique set out leaders' commitment to a massive coordinated fiscal stimulus:

            "We are undertaking an unprecedented and concerted fiscal expansion, which will save or create millions of jobs which would otherwise have been destroyed, and that           will, by the end of next year, amount to $5 trillion, raise output by 4 per cent, and      accelerate the transition to a green economy. We are committed to deliver the scale of sustained fiscal effort necessary to restore growth.

            While the degree of coordination was somewhat exaggerated, there was a genuine collective determination to do what was necessary to ensure the financial crisis did      not become a prolonged depression".

And it worked - perhaps too well. By June 2010, in Toronto, it appeared that recovery was indeed underway. The new priority was fiscal consolidation: the communique noted approvingly that:

            "Sound fiscal finances are essential to sustain recovery, provide flexibility to             respond to new shocks, ensure the capacity to meet the challenges of aging       populations, and avoid leaving future generations with a legacy of deficits and debt...    Advanced economies have committed to fiscal plans that will at least halve deficits     by 2013 "

For the UK government, this was a diplomatic triumph; not only did the G20 endorse the UK's approach to fiscal consolidation, it commended it to other countries:

            "I think the British budget has been noticed here in the G20 and has been      appreciated," finance minister George Osborne said. Citing the summit communique,             he said the group had formally recognized that "countries with serious fiscal       challenges need to accelerate the pace of dealing with them, and of course that is             exactly what the budget did."

Others were less positive; Paul Krugman's reaction:

            "The deficit hawks have taken over the G20. The right thing, overwhelmingly, is to do things that will reduce spending and/or raise revenue after the economy has recovered — specifically, wait until after the economy is strong enough that monetary policy can offset the contractionary effects of fiscal austerity.

            But no: the deficit hawks want their cuts while unemployment rates are still at near-record highs and monetary policy is still hard up against the zero bound. Utter folly posing as wisdom".

And indeed it is now clear this premature "pivot" to fiscal consolidation, as the IMF described it, was a huge mistake, both for the G20 as a whole and for the UK. The supposed commitment to halve deficits by 2013 has been quietly (and rightly) forgotten, derailed by weak growth. Indeed, in the UK, most of the deficit reduction so far has come through cutting public investment; belatedly, the government has recognised the folly of this approach, and is trying to think of ways to reverse it without admitting that it got it wrong, as I explain here.

Meanwhile, in the eurozone, matters are even worse. Austerity has proved self-defeating even in its own terms, with fiscal contraction leading to lower growth and higher unemployment, in turn exacerbating deficits and leading to further losses of credibility, both political and economic.
But the good news is that at this week's G20 in Los Cabos the message does seem finally to have got through to world leaders. Although most press attention has focused on the rather inconclusive discussion of the eurozone crisis, it is worth noting the communique text on fiscal policy:

            "All G20 members will take the necessary actions to strengthen global growth and restore confidence. Advanced economies will ensure that the pace of fiscal consolidation is appropriate to support the recovery, taking country-specific circumstances into account and, in line with the Toronto commitments, address concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability. Those advanced and emerging economies which have fiscal space will let the automatic fiscal stabilizers to operate taking into account national circumstances and current demand conditions. Should economic conditions deteriorate significantly further, those countries with sufficient fiscal space stand ready to coordinate and implement discretionary fiscal actions to support domestic demand, as appropriate. In many countries, higher investment in education, innovation and infrastructure can support the creation of jobs now while raising productivity and future growth prospects. Recognizing the need to pursue growth-oriented policies that support demand and recovery, the United States will calibrate the pace of its fiscal consolidation by ensuring that its public finances are placed on a sustainable long-run path so that a sharp fiscal contraction in 2013 is avoided".

As usual, there is something for everyone here. But the change of tone is marked. Instead of the mistaken and damaging view of 2010 that immediate fiscal consolidation was urgent to sustain recovery and boost confidence, there is a recognition that cutting deficits too fast could damage growth; that higher investment would boost both output and jobs now and productivity over the medium term; and that further stimulus may well be necessary, given the continued depressed state of much of the world economy. All this is welcome; it is a pity they didn't say this two years ago. Let us hope it translates into policy.