PERU: IGBVL-ISBGVL BOLSA LIMA

BOLSA de Lima cae

FED: 2% TASA DE INTERES, RIESGO INFLACION

La FED mantiene los tipos de interés y advierte sobre la inflación

Esta es la primera pausa de la Reserva Federal de EE.UU. en su relajación de la política monetaria

25/06/2008 | Actualizada a las 20:42h

Washington. (EFECOM).- La Reserva Federal mantuvo hoy los tipos de interés de referencia en Estados Unidos en el 2 por ciento y advirtió sobre las presiones de inflación.

El Comité de Mercado Abierto, tras dos días de reuniones, confirmó las expectativas de los analistas e indicó que "la incertidumbre sobre la inflación sigue siendo alta".

Esta es la primera pausa de la Reserva en su relajación de la política monetaria, que inició en septiembre pasado cuando la tasa de interés interbancario de corto plazo estaba en el 5 por ciento.

La decisión del Comité no fue unánime, ya que uno de los gobernadores del banco central estadounidense indicó que hubiese preferido un incremento de la tasa de interés en esta reunión. "La información reciente indica que la actividad económica en general sigue creciendo, como reflejo en parte de la afirmación en el gasto de los hogares", sostuvo el comunicado.

"Pero los mercados laborales se han debilitado más y los mercados financieros continúan bajo tensiones considerables", añadió. "La constricción del crédito, la contracción en el sector de la vivienda y el aumento de los precios de la energía probablemente seguirán pesando sobre el crecimiento económico en los próximos trimestres", según la Reserva.

AMERICA LATINA: RGE MONITOR, HECHOS ESTILIZADOS

Stylized Facts on Latin America’s Economic Growth – part 2
Latin America’s growth has lagged that of other regions of the world, even after the adoption of “Washington Consensus” policies. Among the explanations Zettlemeyer highlights in a recent paper are:
1. Monopolistic industries/absence of competition in state-owned enterprises led to low productivity. Privatization - especially of utilities - and trade liberalization were intended to increase competition and hence foster productivity growth. But the evidence to date suggests privatization does not increase growth, in part because privatization did not necessarily increase competition or end monopolistic industrial structures. In fact, privatization and external liberalization failed to eliminate bureaucratic red tape or induce more flexible labor markets. (see Djankov, Zettlemeyer)
2. Weak property rights - and the paucity of collateral - inhibit the development of local credit markets, limiting financial development and ultimately growth (see Tommasi). On the other hand, weak Chinese property rights (notably on land) haven’t inhibited Chinese growth. (see Rosenblatt)
3. Financial shocks. Capital account liberalization initially seems to have led to greater exposure to external financial shocks – without necessarily leading to rapid financial modernization. Capital flows have been pro-cyclical and, at least so far, have tended to augment boom-bust cycles rather than help smooth consumption in the face of shocks. Rather than reducing macroeconomic volatility, capital account liberalization may have increased it. (see Roja-Suarez)
4. Doing too much yet not enough. Big bang type of reforms – along the lines of the “Washington Consensus” – changed a host of policies without necessarily addressing the binding constraints limiting growth. Conversely, more modest reforms that left many potential distortions in place often have been enough to spur growth. (For example, China’s growth acceleration came without ending state dominance of the financial sector.) Targeted reforms that addressed country-specific constraints might yield better results. (see Hausmann, Rodrik and Velasco)
Zettlemeyer leaves aside three other explanations for poor growth performance in Latin countries: 1) Latin countries display low levels of savings, which translates – absent sustained external capital flows – to low levels of investment; 2) high levels of financial dollarization generated significant balance sheet vulnerabilities in the banking system and increased Latin countries’ exposure to exogenous shocks (see Krueger and Levy-Yeyati); and 3) most reforms have been related to achieving macro stability; the harder structural reform that would increase potential and actual growth have been lagging in the region; so the problem is not the Washington Consensus policies but the fact that they have not been systematically implemented. (see Fraga)
Conclusion
Latin America needs to break the spells of short-spanned growth periods and create the appropriate internal conditions for long cycles of growth. After the “Washington Consensus” set of reforms failed to deliver all that was promised, no consensus on a single set of measures to generate sustained growth everywhere has not been created – but that itself may be a sign of progress.
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PERU: 2.25 BN GAS FINANCING, BLOOMBERG

Completado el financiamiento para el proyecto de exportacion de gas de Hunt Oil

PETROLEO: PASO LOS 140 D/B, LVR

Petroleo paso el umbral sicologico de los 140 dolares por barril, tambien cayo la bolsa

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USA: WALL STREET A LA BAJA, LVR

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