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USA: EMPLEO, 2 M en riesgo

Estados Unidos podría perder 2 millones de empleos en el 2009

12:45 | Según The Conference Board estas pérdidas se sumarían a los más de 2,5 millones de puestos de trabajo que desaparecieron en el 2008

Nueva York (EFE).- La economía de Estados Unidos podría perder 2 millones de empleos este año, que se sumarían a los más de 2,5 millones de puestos de trabajo que desaparecieron en el 2008, según cálculos de The Conference Board difundidos hoy.

El índice de tendencias de empleo que elabora esa entidad privada para tratar de anticipar la evolución del mercado laboral en Estados Unidos se situó en diciembre en 99,6 puntos, lo que representa un descenso del 1,6% respecto de noviembre y del 16% respecto de hace un año.

"Ese agudo descenso del índice de empleo sugiere que el número de empleos perdidos podría aumentar en otros 2 millones", explicó el economista de The Conference Board Gad Levanon al difundirse los datos de esa entidad.

El índice de empleo ha mostrado una persistente tendencia bajista durante casi un año y medio en los ocho indicadores que se tienen en cuenta para elaborarlo y que incluyen datos oficiales e independientes.

En los últimos seis meses se ha percibido ese declive de forma particular en el trabajo temporal y en las contrataciones a tiempo parcial, según Levanon.

"El continuado deterioro del índice apunta a que no se espera una recuperación del mercado laboral en un futuro cercano", agregó el economista en un comunicado de prensa.

Los datos oficiales de empleo que difundió el pasado viernes el Departamento de Trabajo mostraron que la economía de Estados Unidos perdió 524.000 empleos el mes pasado y otras 584.000 ocupaciones en noviembre.

A la vez, la tasa de desempleo se elevó en diciembre cuatro décimas respecto al mes previo y se situó en el 7,2% al finalizar el año.

PERU:RIESGO PAIS SUBIO DE 96 a 653 ppbs, ahora baja a 524

RIESGO PAIS PERU

Pasa de 96 puntos basicos el 15 de junio 2007, antes de la crisis hipotecaria, a 653 puntos el 23 de octubre 2008, cerrando el 31 de diciembre 2008 a 524 puntos basicos. Aumenta 5.4 veces entre junio 2007 y diciembre 2008. Significa una tasa por encima del bono del tesoro americano de 5.24%

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VENEZUELA: OIL AND EXCHANGE RATE

Venezuela Begins Stealth Devaluation After Oil Price Plunge 

By Matthew Walter

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says he won’t adjust the oil-exporting country’s pegged exchange rate amid a plunge in prices for crude. Instead, seeking to maintain his popularity, he may devalue the currency by sleight of hand.

The government is already cutting its sales of dollars at the rate it established in 2005, forcing travelers abroad to turn to a parallel, unofficial market where U.S. currency sells at a 61 percent premium. Venezuelans need government authorization to get dollars at the official rate.

“What’s essentially going on is a surreptitious devaluation,” said Russell Dallen, head trader at Caracas Capital Markets, a unit of BBO Financial Services Inc., a Caracas-based brokerage and asset management company. “They’re pushing more people into the unofficial market, so that’s forcing a devaluation on more people.”

Chavez’s insistence on a pegged rate, which worked well enough as long as Venezuela was awash in petrodollars, turned into a liability since oil prices collapsed. The government can no longer afford to subsidize cheap dollars for the consumer imports Venezuelans have grown accustomed to. On the other hand, abandoning the peg would ignite a surge of inflation at a time Chavez is campaigning for a chance to run again for president.

Venezuela’s inflation, the fastest among the 82 economies tracked by Bloomberg, may accelerate this year as the supply of dollars at the official exchange rate shrinks, forcing importers to spend more for foreign goods. Consumer prices rose 31.9 percent in 2008.

No Adjustment

A devaluation “isn’t planned” this year, Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez said in an interview Jan. 8, adding later on state television that an exchange rate adjustment “isn’t necessary.”

Asked whether dollar sales at the pegged rate will be cut this year, Rodriguez said: “It’s likely that they’ll go down a bit.”

That would be the first drop since the Foreign Exchange Administration Commission, the agency that approves currency trades, was created in 2003. Last year, it authorized $48 billion in dollar sales, up 11 percent from 2007.

On Dec. 31 the government cut in half the maximum dollars Venezuelans can buy for international travel, and Rodriguez said dollars for luxury imports will probably be reduced as well.

Keeping the peg at 2.15 bolivars per dollar has stoked a booming trade in imported cars, electronics and consumer goods. Imports surged 98 percent from 2005 to 2008 to $47.6 billion, according to the central bank.

Parallel Market

To offer access to additional foreign exchange, Venezuelan bond traders started exchanging dollar-denominated securities for local bolivar bonds at a floating, parallel exchange rate after the government imposed foreign exchange controls in 2003.

The bolivar traded at 5.57 per dollar in the parallel market on Jan. 9, traders said. The rate is also used as a reference for widespread black-market street trading.

Rodriguez said he can’t rule out a multitiered exchange rate similar to the one implemented in the 1980s when collapsing oil revenue sent the economy into a tailspin. On Feb. 28, 1983, known as “Black Friday,” then-President Luis Herrera Campins devalued the bolivar for the first time in 22 years after oil prices crashed.

The Venezuelan basket, an index of the country’s oil exports, has tumbled 70 percent between July 18 and Jan. 9 to $37.62 a barrel.

Political Fire

Maintaining the peg on just medicine, food staples, and industrial machinery would help insulate Chavez from political fire ahead of a referendum in February or March, when voters will decide whether to scrap presidential term limits and allow him to run again in 2012.

That limited range for dollar sales, though, would be an “implicit devaluation,” said Asdrubal Oliveros, a director at Caracas-based economic consultant Ecoanalitica.

When rumors of the cutback for travelers began circulating in December, Venezuelans flooded across the Colombian border to withdraw currency, said Rodolfo Mora, president of the retailers’ chamber in Cucuta, Colombia, a town popular with Venezuelan shoppers.

“Sales this year were like before 1983,” Mora said. “Back then, there wasn’t room on the streets for all the people.”

As Chavez looks for ways to save money and sustain his popular social programs, Venezuela’s five-year frenzy of consumption may be coming to an end.

Expensive Debt

Even after a recent rally, the benchmark 9 1/4 percent bond due in 2027 is down 32.8 percent since Sept. 10. Its 16.041 percent yield will keep the government from selling additional debt, said Claudia Calich, who manages $1 billion in emerging market debt at Invesco in New York.

At current oil prices, devaluation is almost unavoidable without “massive” spending cuts, she said in an interview.

Devaluation would boost the government’s earnings in bolivars for every dollar of oil sold. Oil accounts for 93 percent of exports and pays for half the budget.

Chavez and Rodriguez have said oil may be poised to rebound. In any event, Chavez says his socialist political project can survive low prices, as it did in 2001 and 2002. On New Years Eve he unveiled plans for $100 billion in projects over the next four years.

“His mouth is writing checks that the oil price doesn’t allow him to cash at the moment,” said Dallen, the trader at Caracas Capital Markets.

To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Walter in Caracas atmwalter4@bloomberg.net;

CORRUPCION: MADOFF HACE PERDER 401 M a Banco

Banco Bilbao Will Continue to Distribute Hedge Fund Products 

By Charles Penty

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, the Spanish lender that reported about 300 million euros ($401 million) in losses fromBernard Madoff’s alleged fraud, will continue to distribute hedge fund products to clients.

“BBVA hasn’t changed its strategy of distributing hedge funds, which is linked to the demand of its institutional clients both for structured products and funds,” an official for the bank, who asked not to be named, said in a statement.

BBVA was responding to a story today in Expansion newspaper, which said the bank planned to withdraw from the business of selling structured hedge fund products to avoid losses.

BBVA, based in Bilbao, Spain, also denied a claim in Expansion’s story, which cited “some market experts,” that the lender could face up to 300 million euros in further losses from structured products.

The bank said Dec. 15 it may register as much as 300 million euros in losses after setting up products linked to Madoff, who has allegedly confessed to a $50 billion fraud.

Last Updated: January 12, 2009 05:24 EST

OBAMA: 800 B stimulus

$800 Billion Obama Stimulus Will be Topic of Debate Through Inauguration
By William Patalon III
Executive Editor
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

President-elect Barack Obama said Saturday that an analysis of his stimulus proposal found that the capital infusion could save or create as many as 4 million U.S. jobs by 2010, nearly 90% of them in the private sector. Obama previously estimated that his estimated $800 billion strategy for winching the American economy out of its year-long recession could save or create 3 million jobs, but the new study has found that the actual number would range between 3 million and 4 million.

The analysis was submitted by Christina Romer, head of Obama’s council of economic advisors, and Jared Bernstein, the economic advisor to Vice President-elect Joe Biden. The analysis directly follows an official government report showing that U.S. employers slashed more than half a million jobs in December, pushing the unemployment rate to 7.2% and bringing the number of jobs lost last year to 2.6 million — the worst showing since 1945.

“The jobs we create will be in businesses large and small across a wide range of industries,” President-elect Obama said on his weekly radio and Internet address. "And they’ll be the kind of jobs that don’t just put people to work in the short term, but position our economy to lead the world in the long term.”

With President-elect Obama’s inauguration set for Jan. 20 – a week from tomorrow (Tuesday), expect around-the-clock discussions about the stimulus package (and potential tax cuts), as the political bickering begins in earnest.

Because of the plan’s high cost and proposed tax cuts, Obama has faced opposition from Republican and Democratic lawmakers. The incoming president’s top aides visited Capitol Hill on Friday to attempt to allay lawmaker concerns. The plan would combine the tax cuts, aid to states and public-works projects.

Obama said his plan would create nearly 500,000 jobs by investing in clean energy, by committing to double the production of alternative energy in the next three years and by improving the energy efficiency of 2 million American homes. However, he also warned yet again that the economy is likely to get worse before it gets better and that any recovery will not happen overnight.

“These made-in-America jobs building solar panels and wind turbines, developing fuel-efficient cars and new energy technologies pay well, and they can’t be outsourced," Obama said during his address.

In excerpts from an interview with ABC News to be broadcast on Sunday, President-elect Obama said Americans will have to scale back and make personal sacrifices.

“I want to be realistic here, not everything that we talked about during the campaign are we going to be able to do on the pace we had hoped," he said in a taped interview with ABC’s "This Week with George Stephanopoulos."

"Everybody’s going to have (to) give," Obama said.

Obama also said the proposal:

Showed the recovery plan would put nearly 400,000 people back to work repairing infrastructure like crumbling roads, bridges and schools and adding miles of broadband network cable.
Would include bipartisan extensions of unemployment insurance and health care coverage, a $1,000 tax cut for 95% of working families, and assistance to help states avoid deep-and-painful budget cuts in essential services like police, fire, education and health care.
“We won’t just create jobs, we’ll also provide help for those who’ve lost theirs, and for states and families who’ve been hardest-hit by this recession," Obama said.

Investors will be tested in the coming weeks as earnings season approaches and corporations share their “gloom and doom” of the past quarter – Intel Corp. (INTC) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) offered investors a sneak peak.

The monthly inflation gauges should depict additional energy price contraction, which actually has served as an unofficial stimulus package at the pumps (though no one ever talks about it). Traders who thought oil had set a floor around $40 a barrel may have to reassess their views. Cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Middle East turmoil, Russian/Ukrainian disputes … nothing seems capable of halting the slide in oil prices.

Instead, the eternal pessimists focus on deflation, fearful that consumers will hold off on all purchases (regardless of pricing) and the economic downturn will continue well into 2009. On that note, the retail sales data should offer few positive surprises. At least, that new “chief performance officer” represents job expansion. But as Money Morning’s investing gurus have demonstrated, it is inflation – not deflation – that will be the big worry.

Market Matters

Six days and counting. Just how will equities perform in 2009? According to the January Effect: As the first five days of January go, so goes the market for the year. Often investors sell stocks late in the year to lock in capital losses. When they reinvest during the first five days (stocks rise), they believe the markets will increase and look to take advantage of the appreciation. When stocks fall during that week, investors are less optimistic about the future of the markets. In 2008, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s 500 Indexes dropped by more than 5% during the initial five trading sessions, a highly negative (but accurate) precursor of the year to come. However, in 2009, the predictor turned out to be less clear; the Dow dropped by 0.39%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.72% (though both were lower after Day Six). The market uncertainty continues into the New Year.

In corporate news, published reports state that Citigroup Inc. (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are looking to combine their brokerage units. Morgan Stanley could pay $2 billion to $3 billion or more for a controlling stake in Citigroup’s Smith Barney retail brokerage business.

Terms of the deal are still being worked out, sources familiar with the matter said, adding that Citi may put its toxic assets into a separate unit as a preliminary step toward shedding them.

Under the current plan, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley would set up a joint venture for their combined retail brokerage businesses. Morgan Stanley would own 51%, control the venture, and would expect to buy Citigroup’s remaining share over the next five years.

The cash would be a big boon for Citigroup, which is under tremendous pressure from the U.S. government to shore up its balance sheet after taking $45 billion of government capital in October and November, the sources told Reuters.
The bank is considering multiple options in addition to the Morgan Stanley deal.
"Everything is on the table," the sources said.

Dismantling the rest of Citigroup would be difficult, since not many are in the market for big-ticket financial assets now. A few smaller businesses or groups may be sold off – Citi has internally discussed the possibility of selling its Banamex Mexican banking unit, for example. But splitting up Citigroup completely is unlikely.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) joined the ranks of depressed retailers by missing December sales projections and then cut its outlook for the quarter. Toyota Motor Corp. (ADR: TM), General Motors Corp. (GM) and Ford Motor Co. (F) reported sales declines of 30% (or more) last month, while Volkswagen AG (ADR: VLKAY) and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG announced plans for greater expansion in the U.S. market to take advantage of their struggling domestic competitors.

Alcoa Inc. (AA) added to the gloomy unemployment picture by reducing its work force by 15,000 jobs. Intel again warned that the economy is hindering its operations as consumers and businesses shy away from technology purchases. Indian high-tech giant Satyam Computer (ADR: SAY) pulled a “Madoff” by informing investors that its chairman had been falsifying financial results and exaggerated his $1 billion cash balance. Even Madoff himself was appalled (as he attempted to mail $173 million of checks to loyal investors and send $1 million in jewelry to friends and family).

Oil surged above $48 a barrel early in the week as war escalated in Gaza; however, a mid-week report depicted higher-than-expected inventories and prices plunged 12% in a day – and ultimately dropped below $40 for the first time in 2009.

Stocks gave back those gains from the first trading day as investors (over)analyzed the retail numbers and other data. On the fixed income front, bond investors appear more willing to accept risk as $750 million flowed into high-yield (junk) funds during the last two weeks of 2008.



Economically Speaking…

So what’s $1.2 trillion between friends? After entering office with a budget surplus, the fiscally conservative President Bush will leave his successor with a $1.186 trillion deficit (that is sure to rise with the afore-mentioned Obama stimulus package). For his part, Obama promises to "put government on the side of taxpayers and everyday Americans" as he created a new position – chief performance officer – to eliminate waste wherever it exists in the federal budget.

Good luck with that, Mr. President (elect).

While the economic calendar was quite hectic, economists and investors alike eagerly awaited (rather, reluctantly feared) the late-week unemployment and non-farm payroll releases. In December, the jobless rate surged to 7.2%, its highest level in 16 years, as another 524,000 jobs were eliminated from the economy.

For all of 2009, 2.6 million jobs were lost, the biggest contraction since 1945, though the labor force has tripled since that time. While new claims for unemployment benefits has shown some improvement over the past few weeks, continuing claims rose to a 26-year high, revealing that laid-off workers are having significant difficulties finding new jobs during the recession.

Factory orders fell for the fourth straight month as the weak (and getting weaker) auto sector continued to restrict any progress in manufacturing.

Consumers borrowing declined by a record amount in November, as individuals remained afraid to make any purchases or add to debt positions during these dire times. Unfortunately, the surest way to work our way out of this recession is for those individuals and businesses (who are able) to pour money back into the economy and that is simply not happening. The minutes from the December U.S. Federal Reserve meeting were released and policymakers appear highly pessimistic about growth prospects for 2009 and implied that rates could remain just above 0% for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England cuts its rate to the lowest level in its 315-year history.

INDE: Satyam Computer Services FRAUD

Founders of Indian Company Interrogated

By JEREMY KAHN and HEATHER TIMMONS
Published: January 10, 2009

HYDERABAD, India — The brothers who founded the outsourcing company Satyam Computer Services have been interrogated and jailed, and Srinivas Vadlamani, who resigned as chief financial officer after a huge fraud was disclosed there, was arrested as well on Saturday night.
Satyam Computer Services Limited

Inspector General V. S. K. Kaumudi of the police crime investigation unit said that Mr. Vadlamani was being held on charges of criminal conspiracy, forging accounts and cheating as part of the same case that has been registered against the Satyam founders, B. Ramalinga Raju and B. Rama Raju.

B. Ramalinga Raju resigned as chairman in a letter to the company Wednesday in which he confessed to faking profit and revenue. Charges being considered against Mr. Raju and his brother include cheating, forgery, criminal breach of trust and falsifying documents, the authorities said. The two are to remain in judicial custody until Jan. 23, and will be held in a Hyderabad jail.

Satyam, one of India’s largest outsourcing companies, is struggling to survive after the revelations of fraud, and the government has taken control of the company’s board. B. Ramalinga Raju said in his letter that no board members were aware of the fraud at the company. S. Bharat Kumar, lawyer for the Raju brothers, said in an interview that he believed the two had a “good case” for being released on bail.

Satyam, which counts one-third of the Fortune 500 companies among its clients, employs 53,000 people, about two-thirds of them in India. Government agencies have moved quickly since Wednesday to shore up the company and to reassure investors that Indian publicly traded companies are safe. They passed new rules Friday that will require the largest public companies on India’s stock exchange to submit their numbers to additional review by outside auditors. The authorities also removed Satyam’s board members and said they would be replaced with 10 government-appointed directors.

Lazard Asset Management, Satyam’s largest shareholder, with a 7.4 stake in the company, is agitating for a voice at Satyam. The money management arm of the investment bank Lazard has asked the Indian government to be consulted on any changes at the company, and sent letters to India’s corporate affairs minister and the market regulator, SEBI, with that request, a Lazard representative said Saturday.


Jeremy Kahn reported from Hyderabad and Heather Timmons from New Delhi.