Fwd: Macroperu Ultimas declaraciones de OBAMA sobre la Crisis de USA

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Bruno Seminario <lbseminario@yahoo.com>
Date: 2008/12/7
Subject: Macroperu Ultimas declaraciones de OBAMA sobre la Crisis de USA
To: macroperu <macroperu@yahoogroups.com>

Es interesante comparar estas declaraciones de Obama con las de Alan García. Mientras que el primero les dices a los ciudadanos estadounidenses que la situación económica empeorar; el segundo sostiene desde hace varios meses que el Perú es parte del paraíso terrenal....

Obama: Economy 'a big problem, and it's going to get worse'

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Jonathan Martin – Sun Dec 7, 9:59 am ET

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CHICAGO – President-elect Barack Obama braced the country for more tough times Sunday, saying twice in an interview that the nation's already dismal economy would continue to worsen in the months ahead.

Obama, speaking to Tom Brokaw on NBC's "Meet the Press," used some of his starkest language yet to underscore the severity of the challenge he'll face upon taking office next month.

"If you look at the unemployment numbers that came out yesterday, if you think about almost 2 million jobs lost so far, if you think about the fragility of the financial system and the fact that it is now a global financial system so that what happens in Thailand or Russia can have an impact here, and obviously what happens on Wall Street has an impact worldwide, when you think about the structural problems that we already had in the economy before the financial crisis, this is a big problem, and it's going to get worse," he said in the interview taped Saturday.

Later in the interview Obama reiterated his downbeat projection, saying, "Things are going to get worse before they get better."

Obama's assessment, offered with an eye toward lowering the already considerable expectations on his shoulders, comes two days after the worst monthly job losses in over three decades, and a day after he proposed a series of ways to marry job-creation with infrastructure improvements in the forthcoming economic stimulus package.

In the wide-ranging appearance, Obama once again gave strong indications that he's backing off his stance on two key campaign pledges – whether to repeal President George W. Bush's tax cuts for the rich, and his call for bringing U.S. combat troops home from Iraqin 16 months. On a lighter note, he sketched a vision of an ObamaWhite House alive with cultural and musical events, saying he hoped to include children from local Washington, D.C., schools.

But the economy dominated the discussion. Obama, who has been largely restrained from leveling political criticism during the transition period, took shots at Congress and the current administration for their handling of the crisis.

He told Brokaw that decisions based on where to focus infrastructure improvements would be based on merit, and "not in the old, traditional politics-first way."

In an unambiguous brush-back to his former colleagues Obama said, "You know, the days of just pork coming out of Congress as a strategy, those days are over." 

And after weeks of public magnanimity toward the Bush administration and much cooperation between the outgoing and incoming economic teams, Obama expressed irritation at what he described as a lack of urgency on the part of the incumbent about offering mortgage assistance to struggling homeowners.

"I'm disappointed that we haven't seen quicker movement on this issue by the administration," Obama said. "We have said publicly and privately that we want to see a package that helps homeowners not just because it's good for that particular homeowner; it's good for the community.'

But pressed by Brokaw if he or his advisers had conveyed their unhappiness on the mortgage question to the Bush administration, Obama dodged. "We have specifically said that moving forward we have to have a housing component to any actions that we take. If we are only dealing with Wall Street and we're not dealing with Main Street, then we're only handling one half of the problem," he said.

Obama also wouldn't delve too deeply into the woes of the automakers, or answer specifically if they should be given government oversight, but did make clear he wanted to see financial assistance to the Big Three tied to reforms.

"They're going to have to restructure, and all their stakeholders are going to have to restructure—labor, management, shareholders, creditors—everybody is going to recognize that they have—they do not have a sustainable business model right now," Obama said. "And if they expect taxpayers to help in that adjustment process, then they can't keep on putting off the kinds of changes that they frankly should have made 20 or 30 years ago. If they want to survive, then they better start building a fuel-efficient car. And if they want to survive, they've got to recognize that the auto market is not going to be as large as some of their rosy scenarios that they put forward over the last several years." 

On taxes, the president-elect suggested he would avoid any increases in the near term. He rejected the prospect of putting a fuel surcharge on falling gas prices to fund alternative energy, saying that "putting additional burdens on American families right now, I think, is a mistake."

And he signaled that his campaign pledge to raise taxes on the rich may be put off, something his economic advisers have been saying quietly for weeks.

"My economic team right now is examining -- do we repeal that through legislation?" Obama said of the Bush tax cuts for those Americans making over $250,000 per year. "Do we let it lapse so that, when the Bush tax cuts expire, they're not renewed when it comes to wealthiest Americans?"

On other topics:

-- Obama, as he did in announcing his national security team last week, appeared to back off his campaign pledge of returning all U.S. combat troops from Iraq in 16 months.

He only said he wanted to do so "as quickly as we can do to maintain stability in Iraq, maintain the safety of U.S. troops, to provide a mechanism so that Iraq can start taking more responsibility as a sovereign responsibility for its own safety and security, ensuring that you don't see any resurgence of terrorism in Iraqthat could threaten our interests."

--He also again declined to weigh in with any great detail on the aftermath of the bombings in Mumbai, but he did offer guarded praise for the actions of Pakistani president Asif Ali Zardari.

"Thus far, President Zardari has sent the right signals. He's indicated that he recognizes this is not just a threat to the United States but is a threat to Pakistan, as well.

"There was a bombing in Pakistan just yesterday that killed scores of people. And so you're seeing greater and greater terrorist activity inside Pakistan. I think this democratically elected government understands that threat, and I hope that in the coming months that we are going to be able to establish the kind of close, effective working relationship that makes both countries safer."

-- He had much less diplomatic talk for Moscow, saying that it's time "to reset U.S.-Russian relations."

"They're increasingly assertive. And when it comes to Georgia and their threats against their neighboring countries, I think they have been acting in a way that is contrary to international norms. We want to cooperate with them where we can, and there are a whole host of areas particularly around nonproliferation of weapons and terrorism where we can cooperate, but we also have to send a clear message that they have to act in ways that are not bullying their neighbors."

--He pointedly avoided weighing in on the news that Caroline Kennedy, daughter of JFK and an early supporter, has expressed interest in replacing Hillary Clinton in the Senate.

"Caroline Kennedy has become one of my dearest friends and is just a wonderful American, a wonderful person, but the last thing I want to do is get involved in New York politics. I've got enough trouble in terms of Illinois politics."

--And he began to outline a diverse array of cultural activities to be hosted by him and his wife, Michelle, in the White House, saying they would especially focus on the arts and sciences with a hope of having kids involved.

"We want to invite kids from local schools into the White House," Obama said.

He also promised jazz, classical music and poetry at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. so "once again we appreciate this incredible tapestry that's America."

---

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Fwd: Macroperu Re: (ECONOMIA) Un mundo feliz keynesiano

bruno seminario y dani schydlowsky

2008/12/7 Bruno Seminario <lbseminario@yahoo.com>

Hola Dany,

La reforma arancelaria que realizaron los liberales apristas, el tratado comercial que se
caba de firmar con china , y, el descenso del tipo de camio, deb en haber aumentando
sustancialmente el valor de la propensión marginal a importar. Para el Perú, su varo
podría ser cercano a 1/2.

Si usaramos el mismo valor para la prpension marginal a consumir, podríamos llegar a la
conclusión que para el Perú, el valor del multiplicado fiscal sería

(1/(1-c(1-t)+m)). Con c=0.8 , t=0.15, m=0.5. 1-0.80*0.85+0.5 que es igual 1/0.85,
es decir un valor batsante reducido. Como las exportaciones van a descender 6000
millones de dolares y su el valor de retorno dee etas lo podemos estimar en 1/3, su
probable impacto sobre la demanda gargada lo podemos estimar en 2000 millones de
dolares; para cancelar el fecto es probable que se requiera una uamento en el gatso
publico de 3000 millones de dolares.: un estimulo fiscal equivalente a 2 o 3 puntos
porcentuales del pbi . Obviamente, los numeros serían mas favorables si se reduce la
propension marginal a importar- Pero esete tipo de medidas no quieren por los
neoliberalies apristas.

--- In MacroPeru@yahoogroups.com, "Daniel Schydlowsky" <schydlowsky@...> wrote:
>
> Estimados,
>
>
>
> Existe en la literatura el “multiplicador keynesiano con repercusiones externas†. Toma
en cuenta que mi importanciones son tus exportaciones, lo cual a su vez afecta tu ingreso,
y por lo tanto tus importaciones, que son mis importaciones.
>
>
>
> Facil hacer el algebra para dos paises, pero con un poco de algebra matricial, se
generaliza a n paises.
>
>
>
> Con ello podriamos ponerle numeros a lo que dice Rodrik.
>
>
>
> Saludos,
>
>
>
> Dani
>
>
>
> From: MacroPeru@yahoogroups.com [mailto:MacroPeru@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf
Of Oscar Blanco
> Sent: Sunday, December 07, 2008 9:00 AM
> To: Lista Tumi; MACROPERU
> Subject: Macroperu (ECONOMIA) Un mundo feliz keynesiano
>
>
>
>
> Dos apuntes blogueros de Dani Rodrik provenientes de sus "unconventional thoughts on
economic development and globalization", en los que aborda temas como el
funcionamiento del mercantilismo en el paraiso keynesiano en ciernes, la reduccion de la
demanda agregada en dicho mundo feliz, la propuesta de un estimulo fiscal coordinado a
nivel global, el incremento de los aranceles a las importaciones, etc. etc. De todo como en
la Farmacia "Marte". Existe todavia o ahora son las FASA?
>
> A proposito de mundos felices, como marcha la estrategia de Lalo Moron, desde el MEF,
para contrarrestar el impacto de la recesion gringa y de la crisis economica mundial en el
Peru?
>
> Saludos,
> Oscar
>
>
> December 05, 2008
>
>
> Does <http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2008/12/does-mercantilism-
work-in-a-keynesian-world..html> mercantilism work in a Keynesian world?
>
>
> Yes it does. And not just in theory, but also in practice.
>
> The evidence comes from the 1930s, and from the work of Ben Bernanke himself (along
with other scholars like Barry Eichengreen). The important finding is that countries that
devalued their currencies by getting off the gold standard were able to recover more
quickly, thanks in part to an increase in their net exports relative to countries that stayed
on gold. Note that a currency depreciation amounts to a policy of combining import
tariffs with export subsidies--hence the mercantilist intent and effect.
>
> Interestingly, Bernanke finds that the increase in net exports came from the increase in
exports, while imports did not decline more than it did in countries remaining on the gold
standard. He speculates that the reason has to do with the increase in income (thanks to
the depreciation) which pushed demand for imports higher and offset the substitution
effects.
>
> I am writing all this partly in response to Tyler Cowen's comment
<http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/12/their-weird-o-
1.html> that any theory that suggests import protection can be a good thing must be a
deeply flawed theory. The experience with currency devaluations during the 1930s shows
that the theory is in fact quite OK.
>
> What the theory does not consider fully, which was rather my point
<http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2008/12/some-unpleasant-
keynesian-arithmetic.html> , is that mercantilist policies--Keynesianism in one country--
has adverse effects on others. My net exports can increase only at the expense of yours.
Similarly, the worse thing about Smoot-Hawley was that it led to a vicious cycle of
protectionism everywhere.
>
> So the implication is not that we throw the theory overboard, but that we foresee its
global implications and apply the requisite remedy: a globally coordinated fiscal stimulus,
which requires in turn that we provide the developing countries with the liquidity and
fiscal resources needed to get on board.
>
>
>
> Posted at 12:13 PM | Permalink
<http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2008/12/does-mercantilism-work-in-
a-keynesian-world.html> | Comments
<http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2008/12/does-mercantilism-work-in-
a-keynesian-world.html#comments> (18) | TrackBack
<http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2008/12/does-mercantilism-work-in-
a-keynesian-world.html#trackback> (0)
>
> <http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2008/12/does-mercantilism-work-
in-a-keynesian-world..html#trackback>
>
>
>
> December 04, 2008
>
>
> Some <http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2008/12/some-unpleasant-
keynesian-arithmetic.html> unpleasant Keynesian arithmetic
>
>
> How much of a boost to economic activity will a fiscal stimulus provide? For those who
believe that we have entered a Keynesian world of shortage of aggregate demand--me
included--the answer depends on the Keynesian multiplier. The size of this multiplier
depends in turn on three things in particular, the marginal propensity to consume (c), the
marginal tax rate (t), and the marginal propensity to import (m). If c=0.8, t=0.2, and
m=0.2, the Keynesian multiplier is 1.8 (=1/(1-c(1-t)+m)). A $1 trillion fiscal stimulus
would increase GDP by $1.8 trillion.
>
> Now suppose that we had a way to raise the multiplier by more than half, from 1.8 to
2.8. The same fiscal stimulus would now produce an increase in GDP of $2.8 trillion--
quite a difference. Nice deal if you can get it.
>
> In fact you can. It is pretty easy to increase the multiplier; just raise import tariffs by
enough so that the marginal propensity to import out of income is reduced substantially
(to zero if you want the multiplier to go all the way to 2.8). Yes, yes, import protection is
inefficient and not a very neighborly thing to do--but should we really care if the
alternative is significantly lower growth and higher unemployment? More to the point, will
Obama and his advisers care?
>
> Being the open economy that it is, I fear that the U.S. will have to confront this dilemma
sooner or later. In an environment where the dollar has already appreciated against the
Euro and even more significantly against emerging market currencies, fiscal stimulus here
will produce an even larger current account deficit. If American consumers decide to
spend 40 cents of a dollar of additional income on cheap imports from China and other
foreign countries, the multiplier will be a mere 1.3. How long will it take before
politicians of all stripes cry foul over the leakage through the trade account and the "gift to
foreigners" that this represents? And they will have Keynesian logic on their side.
>
> The way out of this dilemma is to get the rest of the world to engage in fiscal expansion
at the same time--so that the gift is returned. The good news here is that China is
playing along and hopefully the Europeans will too (if they can convince Germans to get
over their weird obsession with fiscal conservatism).
>
> But most developing nations are constrained by weak fiscal fundamentals. They cannot
play the fiscal stimulus game because their borrowing capacity is limited: external finance
is drying up and domestic financial markets cannot absorb the increase in public debt
without a sharp rise in interest rates.
>
> So unless we come up with a solution to the credit constraints in the developing world,
we are going to either endanger the effectiveness of Keynesian policies in the U.S. and
other advanced nations, or risk a sharp increase in protectionism. Not a pleasant choice.
>
> Two solutions suggest themselves. One is to enlarge global liquidity by creating new
SDR allocations and handing them over to developing nations to increase their spending.
The other is to institute a Tobin tax on foreign currency transactions and pass the
proceeds on to the developing nations.
>
> Exceptional times, exceptional measures.
>
>
>
> <http://www.bustedtees.com/shirt/vivalaevolucion/male>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
<http://7.media.bustedtees.com/bustedtees/mf/9/7/bustedtees.d17acda91cc7d8f810fd
e057d909e98b.jpg>
>

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Fwd: Macroperu Mini Modelo para poder calcular el valor del estimulo fiscal.

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Bruno Seminario <lbseminario@yahoo.com>
Date: 2008/12/7
Subject: Macroperu Mini Modelo para poder calcular el valor del estimulo fiscal.
To: macroperu <macroperu@yahoogroups.com>

1. El Modelo

1.1 Y=X+G+I+C-M

1.2  C=b*YD

1.3  YD=Y-Trf-T

1.4  I=In+Iext

1.5  T=tY

1.6 M= mxX+mgG+mkI+mcC

1.7 Trf=trfX

1.8  Iext=iexX+A

donde Y= PBI Nominal

               X=exportaciones

               G= Gasto público

               I= Inversión

              C= Consumo privado

              In= Inversión Nacional

             Iex= Inversión Extranjera

             T= Impuestos

valor de los parámetros:

         mx= 0,4

         mk= 0,6

         mc= 0,3

         mg= 0,4

         c=  0,7

        trf= 0,5

        iex=0,2

        t=  0,15

---

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Fwd: Macroperu Las Políticas de China

del escritorio de bruno seminario

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Bruno Seminario <lbseminario@yahoo.com>
Date: 2008/12/8
Subject: Macroperu Las Políticas de China
To: macroperu <macroperu@yahoogroups.com>

China plays beggar thy neighbor En este artículo pueden encontrar una buena descripción de la política economica  de las autoridades chinas.  By Peter Navarro  The latest summit between the United States and Chinese officials graphically illustrates that China has learned to play two games from the West: hardball and beggar thy neighbor.  China's hardball approach is evident in the announcement by its major sovereign wealth fund that it will no longer invest in the US financial sector.  The stated reason for this provocative announcement, which was issued on the very eve of the economic summit, is that any suchinvestments would be too risky.  "I don't dare to invest in financial institutions now," Lou Jiwei, chairman of China Investment Corp, said at a conference in Hong      Kong. "The policies of the developed nations on these institutions are not clear. Until they are clear, I don't dare to invest in them. What if they go bust? I will lose everything."  In fact, China's new policy represents both retaliation and a bargaining chip. The retaliatory part of the hardball message has been aimed directly at US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who, much to the displeasure of the Chinese, continues to repeat his demand for Chinese currency reform. The bargaining-chip part is designed to reinforce just how weak the US position is in negotiations while leaving open the door to future investments by China's sovereign wealth fund if the US behaves itself.  As for the beggar thy neighbor, it has become clear over the past week that Chinese government officials intend to export their way out of the global economic crisis. This is all too readily apparent in the recent downward movements of the Chinese yuan relative to the dollar. Stripped of any rhetoric, this movement represents a "competitive devaluation" designed to boost Chinese exports to the US at the expense of both domestic US manufacturers and competing countries such as South Korea and Japan.  In fact, Chinese currency manipulation represents "beggar thy neighbor" on a grand scale. By grossly undervaluing the Chinese yuan relative to the US dollar over the past five years, China has grown its economy on the backs of American workers and helped to decimate the American manufacturing base. Today, it is almost impossible for American manufacturers to compete against their Chinese counterparts when the yuan is undervalued by 30% or more. Add to this an extensive array of illegal Chinese export subsidies, and it becomes easy to understand how China has been able to offshore so many American jobs to its own factories.  Under political pressure, China allowed the yuan to modestly appreciate relative to the dollar over the past year. However, despite this appreciation, the yuan still fell relative to the euro and other major currencies - in the process, significantly exacerbating China's trade imbalance with Europe.  It's not just the United States and Europe that China's currency manipulation hurts. Japan, South Korea and others of China's erstwhile competitors in Asia for export markets likewise lose competitive advantage. That's why China's latest devaluation of its currency could not come at a worse time for its Asian neighbors.  South Korea is experiencing an horrific currency crisis of its own, one that is in large part driven by the steep decline in its exports and a collateral slowing of its economy. The last thing South Korea needs right now is a competitive devaluation by China that further negatively impacts South Korean exports and puts more downward pressure on the won.  Japan is in exactly the same boat. This is a country that just a year ago finally got its head above the economic waters but now is sinking back into the recessionary, deflationary morass. China's devaluation likewise strikes hard at the ability of Japan to bounce back.  The ultimate big picture here is that China could play a very constructive role in the rebuilding of the global economy. With its huge foreign reserves, it could assist Asian neighbors like South Korea in their time of need. China could also use this time as a transition point for moving from an export-driven economy to one fueled by domestic consumption.  It is all too clear, however, that China has chosen to move in the opposite direction. This will not only further destabilize the global economy. It will also significantly strain relations with the United States. This is particularly true given the campaign promise of president-elect Barack Obama to crack down on Chinese mercantilism.  Peter Navarro is a professor at the Paul Merage School of Business, University of California-Irvine, a CNBC contributor, and author ofThe Coming China Wars. www.peternavarro.com

---

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