Fwd: Reservas Internacionales Netas suben a US$ 61 255 millones, su nivel máximo en los últimos cuatro meses

Resumen Informativo (descargar documento) Reservas Internacionales Netas (RIN) subieron a US$ 61 255 millones al 25 de agosto de este año, el nivel diario más alto en los últimos cuatro meses Precio del oro subió 5,2 por ciento mensual, cerrando en US$/oz.tr. 1 137,5. Tasa de interés preferencial corporativa en soles en 4,5 por ciento Tipo de cambio interbancario promedio venta cerró en S/. 3,29 por dólar el 25 de agosto Nota Semanal del BCRP (descargar documento completo)   Novedades en la página web BCRP implementa medidas para reducir presión sobre el dólar BCRP refuerza medidas de encaje para mercado de derivados cambiarios 450 años de la creación de la CASA NACIONAL DE MONEDA Revista Moneda 162: Volatilidad del PBI: Rol de la estabilidad monetaria Encuentro Económico - Región Ayacucho 2015 BCRP emite moneda de plata alusiva a Mariano Melgar Atte, Departamento de Publicaciones Económicas. Envíe sus comentarios mediante el formulario de consultas

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The 4 Key Cycles That Drive Our Economy Are All Pointing Down

You are receiving this email as a part of your subscription to Economy & Markets. To remove yourself from this email list, please view the information at the bottom of this email. The 4 Key Cycles That Drive Our Economy Are All Pointing Down Dear Subscriber, I'm best known for my research on how demographic trends impact our economy. But before I discovered the power of demographics, back in the '80s, I was a cycles guy. In fact, it was my finding that the spending of new generations was the most important cycle in modern times that made me a believer. The first cycle I studied in the early 1980s was the Kondratieff Wave. Let's call it the K-Wave today for simplicity's sake. In 1925, Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev, published details about a cycle he'd found in prices. Economies experience a cyclical pattern of inflation and deflation that repeats every 50 to 60 years. Kondratiev found that there were two periods of boom and bust. What You Need to Know About the Safe-Asset Slaughter! You're not going to believe what's on the horizon… The final bubble of the recent financial crisis is about to burst. When it pops — it could be as soon as November 2014 — millions of Americans will be financially devastated… But others will have the opportunity to get much richer. This controversial video reveals how you can end up on the winning side of the coming carnage... Click here for the full story. This is now the basis for my 80-Year Four Season Economic Cycle, which breaks down into a… Spring boom with modestly rising inflation. A summer bust with a peak in inflation. A fall boom with falling inflation. And a winter bust with deflation. It looks like this… See larger image But you'll notice that my cycle is 20 to 30 years longer than Kondratiev's… That's because I incorporated demographics into my research, calculations, and observations. I discovered the Spending Wave in 1988. It showed me that new generations peak in spending at age 46. This in turn allowed me to see the great downturn in Japan in 1990… no one else saw it coming. A year later I discovered the relationship between inflation and workforce growth, what I call The Inflation Indicator. I can project when young people will enter the workforce and when the older people will retire. This was a big insight because young people cause inflation. They cost everything to educate, train and integrate into the workforce, and produce nothing while that happens. Only once they're truly productive members of the workforce do they drive forward their Spending Wave. The combination of inflation and boom/bust trends allowed me to re-invent the K-wave in demographic and more predictable terms. And so my 80-Year Four Season Economic Cycle was born. Using all the traditional cycles, many very good forecasters predicted a depression in the 1990s. I disagreed because demographic trends and my new economic cycle told me the baby boom would see its strongest spending surge during that decade. Instead, I saw us reaching the fall bubble boom peak in 2007, after which we'd suffer through the winter season from 2008 to around 2023. My cycles worked almost perfectly through the 1990s. I nailed the Japanese collapse forecast… the dot.com bubble burst prediction… and the housing bubble peak in late 2005. Then something changed. I forecast the stock crash and downturn in early 2000, but it was deeper than I expected. I forecast the upturn in early October of 2002, but it was not as bubbly as I expected when comparing it to the Roaring 20s on this 80-year cycle. When something happens that I don't expect, I dig deeper and look for answers. So I began hunting for what was different in the Roaring 20s boom versus the Roaring 2000s. And In early 2006, I discovered two new powerful cycles: 1) The 36-year Geopolitical Cycle. 2) The 30-Year Commodity Cycle. These two cycles explained why we saw the Dow merely double from 2002 to 2007 rather than quadruple as I'd expected. Commodity prices were down and favorable in the 1920s, but up and unfavorable in the 2000s. The geopolitical environment or risk was very favorable in the 1920s, but very unfavorable from 2001 forward. The Geopolitical Cycle alternates from favorable to unfavorable every 18 years. For example, the cycle turned unfavorable in 2001 (and will continue downward through 2019). The tech wreck intensified in 2001 and then we got 9/11. The world has been a mess ever since. And the Commodity Cycle peaks every 29 to 30 years. This cycle most impacts emerging countries that tend to be big commodity exporters… and is the reason emerging markets have been tanking as it moves down. I have been damn near crucified for over-predicting the Dow in the late 2002 to late 2007 boom. But we had our subscribers invested and I got two valuable new cycles out of that miscalculation. What a deal that was! But there is another important cycle I discovered in early 2013... I had been using a Decennial boom/bust cycle from Ned Davis. He averaged the stock market over the last century and found that the first two or three years of every decade tended to see the worst stock crashes and downturns. When that and the four-year Presidential cycle collided, it was a slam dunk for a 20%+ stock crash and a recession. The next such cycle would have been 2010 to 2012, especially 2010. That's when I most expected the next major stock crash to start. Then an article in Barrons forced me to reconsider a cycle I'd heard years earlier: sunspot cycles. I had dismissed this before because it was called an 11-year cycle and I saw no correlations on that time frame. I went back and found that in the last century, it has averaged 10 years, just as Ned Davis found. But it ranged from nine to 13 years. The last cycle was unusually long and now it points down later, between early 2015 and late 2019. Almost all major crashes and recessions back to the 1800s have occurred in this down cycle. The sunspot cycle is now the second most important cycle I've discovered, and is the key trigger for crashes when my other key cycles are pointing down. Almost no one knows about this and that makes it a secret weapon for me and you, my subscribers. To make a long story short: all four of these key cycles — my Four Year Economic Cycle, the Commodity Cycle, the Geopolitical Cycle, and the Sunspot Cycle — point down together between 2014 and 2019. This is the first time since the early 1930s that this has happened. And we all know about the Great Depression. Be warned! The next major crash is very likely to start between late March and late September. Harry P.S. I discuss these cycles and what they're warning in much greater detail in my book, The Demographic Cliff. This is information you need before the crash. Get in line for a free copy here. Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr FEATURED AUTHOR Harry S. Dent JR. Senior Editor, Economy & Markets CONNECT MUST SEE Click here to watch the video IN THE MEDIA RECENTLY A Revolution is Coming  If you're rich, protect your gains now before Rome falls. Bet Your Bottom Dollar  Trash-talk it all you want, but... The Power of the S-Curve Curves can be intriguing…and powerful… Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? Backing us up with the most comprehensive and global analysis we've seen yet. Market Will Make Big Moves Ahead Is it going to be up or down? Economy & Markets: You are receiving this e-mail as a part of your free subscription to the Economy & Markets E-Letter. Remove your email from this list: click here To cancel by mail or for any other subscription issues, write us at: Delray Publishing | Attn: Member Services | 55 NE 5th Avenue, Suite 200 | Delray Beach, 33483 | Phone: 888-211-2215 | Fax: 410-223-2682 Website: www.dentresearch.com | Privacy Policy: www.dentresearch.com/Privacy-Policy LEGAL NOTICE: Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the worldwide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Delray Publishing. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility. The information herein is not intended to be personal legal or investment advice and may not be appropriate or applicable for all readers. If personal advice is needed, the services of a qualified legal, investment or tax professional should be sought. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation.

High Alert! The Next Crisis is Coming Fast

Dear Subscriber, In my latest video… I'm revealing news of a landmark development that I am convinced will trigger the greatest depression we've ever seen. In fact, this event is so potentially explosive it could take the American economy down with it. That's why I'm urging all our readers to watch this controversial video. Send it to your friends and family before we're forced to take it down. Warn everyone you know about this disturbing development, and move fast to protect your wealth. Details here.  Sincerely, Economy & Markets: You are receiving this e-mail as a part of your free subscription to the Economy & Markets E-Letter. Remove your email from this list: click here To cancel by mail or for any other subscription issues, write us at: Delray Publishing | Attn: Member Services | 55 NE 5th Avenue, Suite 200 | Delray Beach, 33483 | Phone: 888-211-2215 | Fax: 410-223-2682 Website: www.dentresearch.com | Privacy Policy: www.dentresearch.com/Privacy-Policy LEGAL NOTICE: Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the worldwide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Delray Publishing. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility. The information herein is not intended to be personal legal or investment advice and may not be appropriate or applicable for all readers. If personal advice is needed, the services of a qualified legal, investment or tax professional should be sought. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation.

Bear Market Alert: Dow loses another 2%

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TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES: Bear Market Alert: Dow loses another 2% After more heavy losses in Friday's session, the Dow's down 10% for the year. It's time for action. That's why we called on credit expert Michael Lewitt to release his brand-new "Super Crash Report." This is the clearest market forecast you can get at any price. And we're making it free for people who can appreciate what's going on in the world - and are willing to take just a few simple steps to help themselves out. Click here to get your name added to this exclusive list. Profit from the China Stock Market Crash with This Strategy The Chinese benchmark index lost 12.5% in August alone. Shah Gilani gives you a strategy to protect yourself - and even profit - in a Chinese crash. Watch the video. What a "Death Cross" Means Traders consider the death cross a frightening indicator. A death cross occurs when this technical pattern emerges. Iran Nuclear Deal in President Obama's Reach The Obama administration secured enough support for the Iran nuclear deal when this happened on Wednesday. Tomorrow: The Chances of a "Super Crash" Michael Lewitt says the economic events taking shape around the world could lead to a global "super crash." He explains why the market can go one place from here... In tomorrow's Money Morning. Unsubscribe from Money Morning You are receiving this e-mail at GGARCIANUNEZ1.SECRETWORLD@blogger.com as a part of your free subscription to the Money Morning E-Letter. To read our privacy policy click here. Remove your email from this list: Unsubscribe To cancel by mail or for any other subscription issues, write us at: Money Morning | Attn: Member Services | 16 West Madison Street | Baltimore, MD 21201 North America: 888.384.8339; International: 443.353.4519; Fax: 410.622.3050 Contact Customer Service Website: http://www.moneymorning.com © 2015 Money Morning All Rights Reserved. Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular financial situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any recommendations in this letter should be made only after consulting with your financial adviser and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This Newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of: Money Morning. 16 West Madison Street, Baltimore MD 21201.

The 12 Benefits of a Deflationary Crisis

The 12 Benefits of a Deflationary Crisis Dear Subscriber, When you've eaten bad sushi, what's better for you: Do everything you can to keep the poison in your system indefinitely? Let nature take its course? Yeah. It's a no brainer. Unpleasant, but necessary. Why then can economists, the Fed, and the government not see that their efforts to hold back this natural period of deflation we're moving through right now are only damaging our longer-term growth prospects? Austerity and this economic winter season have long-term payoffs. Twelve in fact… The World's "Safest" Investment is About to CRASH The one investment you may hold dear to your heart… the one investment that helps you sleep better at night, that you rely on for safety, security, and maybe even profits in a world gone mad… is about to get slaughtered. When it happens, trillions in wealth will be wiped out virtually overnight! To find out exactly what this investment is, click here. And here they are: Benefit #1: Costs of living come down. Houses become affordable again. Interest rates come down, making loans cheaper. Health care and education costs return to acceptable levels again. All of this leads to a higher standard of living for the next generation. Benefit #2: Business costs move lower. Commercial real estate costs fall, thus lowering the costs for businesses. Educational, health care, and governmental entities, which are real-estate intensive, also enjoy lowered costs. Benefit #3: Massive amounts of private debt is restructured. I'm talking about $42 trillion being restructured to somewhere near pre-bubble levels, at $20 trillion. Such a restructuring would lower principal and interest-rate costs by as much as $1.5 trillion a year for decades. That is the ultimate stimulus plan, which benefits the private sector directly. Benefit #4: The toughest survive. The survival-of-the-fittest struggle in businesses shifts market share to the strongest, giving them greater scale and lower costs that they can pass on to consumers. This is one of the best ways to raise our standard of living. Benefit #5: Long-term entitlements are restructured. The reality is, we live longer today than we did decades ago. As a result, we'll stay in the workforce longer. We'll have no choice. How we plan for retirement adapts to consumers who will earn, save and spend more over their lifetimes. The peak in spending will still occur among those in their late forties, as their kids leave the nest, but the slowdown that follows won't be as extreme and the next boom will be stronger. Benefit #6: Commodity prices fall. From food to energy to materials like copper, lower prices help to lower the cost of living, especially in emerging countries that consume more commodities. Commodity exporters hurt at first, but an even greater commodity boom will follow (from around 2023 to 2038). Benefit #7: Dictatorships in emerging countries will fall. This will put such countries on an economic path toward democracy and economic development. They'll see more transparency and there will be a second democratic and network revolution in business in developed countries. Benefit #8: Developed countries will become more eco-conscious. They'll realize, as their demographic trends continue to slow, that they will most benefit from investing in infrastructure and cleaner energies in emerging countries, which will accelerate their development and lower global pollution… a win-win situation. Benefit #9: Restraints on global trade and immigration diminish. Natural restrictions on trade and immigration early in the crisis typically makes the global downturn worse, but ultimately it will cause more nations to realize that free global trade and immigration are for the best. Thus, globalization accelerates and specialization of labor and trade expand in the economic spring season that follows this deflationary crisis. Benefit #10: Developed countries trend into higher-value, customized products and services. They realize they can't compete in commodities and low-cost labor industries, so they move more rapidly into customized goods and services through network organizations that operate from the bottom up. This trend creates a new, mass affluence in the developed world that passes down into the emerging world over time. Benefit #11: Income inequality decreases. During the fall bubble boom, which ended around 2007, most of the benefits went to the top 1% of income earners who were the innovators and financiers. During this deflationary crisis, the 1% loses wealth and income on a relative basis as their innovations move mainstream and benefit the everyday worker. The middle class is restored to a higher level, with greater gains in income and wealth. Benefit #12: New technology becomes a forceful driver. Finally, long-term innovations in technology emerge out of the economic winter season. I'm talking about things like nanotechnologies that can make something out of nothing, robotics that take over everyday functions, 3D printing that makes products right in your home or office, and biotechnologies that replace and regrow organs or create cleaner, more affordable energies. All in all, while allowing nature to take its course is painful, unpleasant, and often times terrifying, it simply must happen so we can move forward… so we can enter the next boom period and flourish. Now, if only those in power would wake up to that fact and stop acting like idiots! Harry P.S. Deflation is just one of three major forces bearing down on us this decade. I explain the other two and why we're in for a rough ride in this interview. Listen now. Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr FEATURED AUTHOR Harry S. Dent JR. Senior Editor, Economy & Markets CONNECT MUST SEE Click here to watch the video IN THE MEDIA RECENTLY A Revolution is Coming  If you're rich, protect your gains now before Rome falls. Bet Your Bottom Dollar  Trash-talk it all you want, but... The Power of the S-Curve Curves can be intriguing…and powerful… Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? Backing us up with the most comprehensive and global analysis we've seen yet. Market Will Make Big Moves Ahead Is it going to be up or down? Economy & Markets: You are receiving this e-mail as a part of your free subscription to the Economy & Markets E-Letter. Remove your email from this list: click here To cancel by mail or for any other subscription issues, write us at: Delray Publishing | Attn: Member Services | 55 NE 5th Avenue, Suite 200 | Delray Beach, 33483 | Phone: 888-211-2215 | Fax: 410-223-2682 Website: www.dentresearch.com | Privacy Policy: www.dentresearch.com/Privacy-Policy LEGAL NOTICE: Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the worldwide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Delray Publishing. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility. The information herein is not intended to be personal legal or investment advice and may not be appropriate or applicable for all readers. If personal advice is needed, the services of a qualified legal, investment or tax professional should be sought. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation.

ZeroHedge Frontrunning: September 03

September 03, 2015

Frontrunning: September 03 U.S. Treasury's Lew says China will be held accountable on currency (Read More) ... but not Japan Bank of Japan Not Convinced of Need for Further Easing (Read More) Stocks Advance With Commodities on Signs of European Revival (Read More) ECB Said to Seek 645 Million Euros of Dutch, Irish Mortgage Debt (Read More) IMF Says China Slowdown, Other Risks Threaten Global Outlook (Read More) Xi Says China No Threat, Announces Military Cuts at Parade (Read More) China holds massive military parade, to cut troop levels by 300,000 (Read More) Migrants leave Budapest for Austrian frontier; pressure builds for EU action (Read More) FREE REPORT - Harry Dent Reveals His Shocking Economic Predictions - Our country will finally be forced to face its fiscal and economic demons. Be ahead of the game and get Dent?s action plan now! Gain access to our FREE DAILY Economy & Markets E-Letter and get your FREE REPORT immediately. (Click Here to Automatically Subscribe) Inside Uber's Fight With Its Chinese Nemesis, Didi Kuaidi (Read More) Apple's Latest Challenge: Topping Its Own Success (Read More) Troubling image of drowned boy captivates, horrifies (Read More) Market Bets Abound, but Where Are the Banks? (Read More) Foreigners Flee Japan Stocks at Fastest Pace Since at Least 2004 (Read More) Another 57 Clinton email threads contain foreign governments' information (Read More) Guatemala's President Perez resigns over graft scandal (Read More) Selfie madness: too many dying to get the picture (Read More) FBI has kept tabs on Nevada's Burning Man festival, documents say (Read More) Our Sponsors » Connect with Us: Facebook Twitter Google+

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