HAY RECESION EN USA?

We are forecasting slow growth, but there are downside risks
Goldman (via FT): The recent data suggest that the US economy is falling into recession. We expect economic activity to contract modestly through late 2008, followed by a gradual recovery in the course of 2009
Morgan Stanley: The key question now is how deep the recession will be and how long it will last. We continue to expect that the downturn will be comparatively mild and short. Estimated US real GDP growth for 2008: 1.1% (2009E: 2.7%)
JPMorgan (not available online 4Q07 GDP growth raised to to 2% (from 1.5%) while lowering 1Q08 to 0 (from 1%) and 2Q08 to 2% - recession is not our base case but the risks are large
Berry: Economic growth will be slow in the first half of 2008, and the unemployment rate, which was still a low 4.7 percent in November, is likely to rise. Housing sales and construction will continue to be a drag for months to come; Macroeconomic Advisers: consumer spending probably rose at a 2.8 percent rate, enough to offset housing's drag and some decline in business inventory accumulation; GDP probably increased at a 1.1% pace in the Q4 07 and will do slightly better in the Q1 08
OECD: correction in residential construction is likely to accelerate over the near term. GDP should slow to a pace below potential in 2008 and then recover in 2009, although there are considerable downside risks
Danske: elevated risk of a recession within the next two to three quarters, although it is not the most likely outcome. Heading into the second half of 2008, the economy will gradually recover
Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association: The median forecast anticipates GDP growth of 2.2% for full-year 2007 and 2.1% in 2008. Growth is expected to increase from the anemic 0.9% rate in the Q4 2007 and 1.5% in Q1 2008 to 2.1% in Q2 and 2.5% to 2.6% during the H2 of 2008