Fwd: Macroperu Grecia: Nurvas elecciones en el futuro

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Bruno <lbseminario@yahoo.com>
Date: 2012/5/9
Subject: Macroperu Grecia: Nurvas elecciones en el futuro

 

Piden a una izquierda antiajuste que forme gobierno en Grecia

POR IDAFE MARTÍN

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Es poco probabel que los partidos mayoritarios griegos puedan formar un gobierno en Gracia, de modo que nuvas elecciones son inevitables. Es probable , sin embargo, que las mismas hagan desaparecer a los partidos tradicionales con lo que el colpaso de la inetegracion con respecto a la UE sera inevitable. En las actuales circunstancias, es probable que el costo de permancer en la UE sea mayor a los beneficios. Conforma aavnce la crisisi y se persita en las actuales polemicas, se coeste alace se hara evidente. Pero, que puede ocurri en el Mundo si se disuelve la UE: Una catastrofe como esa podria ser similar a la que provoco la quiebra del mayor banco de austria en 1932. 

Tras el fracaso de los partidos tradicionales, el presidente encargó a la alianza Syriza que busque socios. Ellos quieren una moratoria de la deuda y no seguir los recortes que impone la UE. Será difícil que sume aliados y habría nuevos comicios.

• IMÁGENES

Desafío. El líder de Syriza, Alexis Tsipras (c), sale ayer con colaboradores del palacio presidencial de Atenas, tras recibir el encargo de formar gobierno..

BRUSELAS. ESPECIAL PARA CLARIN - 09/05/12

El debate sobre el ajuste en Europa quedó ayer en carne viva: una alianza de izquierda griega, que intenta formar gobierno tras el fracaso de los partidos tradicionales, advirtió que, si llega al poder, su país ya no se sentirá obligado aaplicar las medidas de ajuste exigidas por el FMI y Bruselas.

Alexis Tsipras, un ingeniero de 38 años y líder de la alianza antiajuste Syriza que fue una de las revelaciones de los comicios del domingo, pidió también una moratoria sobre una parte de la deuda, una iniciativa que hizo ayer temblar la Bolsa de Atenas.

"Los partidos pro rescate ya no tienen una mayoría en el Parlamento para votar medidas destructivas para el pueblo griego", dijo Tsipras, cuya alianza salió segunda tras el partido Nueva Democracia (conservador) y adelante de los socialistas del Pasok.

Igualmente, sería casi un milagro que la izquierda (que sacó un 16.8% de los votos) consiga formar gobierno. Así, l os griegos volverían a las urnas dentro de un mes en un ambiente catastrófico, con las fuerzas tradicionales hundidas y los extremistas de izquierda y derecha en ascenso.

Los resultados electorales de las legislativas del pasado domingo dieron un parlamento totalmente fragmentado. Vencieron los conservadores de Nueva Democracia, pero ni sumando a los socialistas del Pasok podrán gobernar.

El resto del arco político rechaza la coalición porque están en contra de los ajustes, de los rescates negociados con la Unión Europea y el FMI y porque piden directamente que se deje de pagar la deuda.

La subida de los extremos es brutal. Syriza, un partido muy a la izquierda de los socialistas, fue la segunda fuerza más votada y en el parlamento entraron por primera vez los neonazis de Aurora Dorada. El resto de la cámara lo forman otro partido de extrema derecha, uno de nacionalistas populistas y dos partidos comunistas peleados entre sí.

El escenario es dantesco. La Bolsa griega cae con fuerza desde el lunes y los bancos han perdido en dos días más del 20% de su valor bursátil. Unos nuevos comicios darían, según los sondeos, un refuerzo a los extremos y provocarían que los partidos centrales se hundieran aún más.

Grecia está de rodillas. Según los datos de la Comisión Europea, el PBI griego es apenas el 2% de la Eurozona, pero el enfermo está haciendo temblar al bloque. Atenas ha perdido en cuatro años el 20% de su PBI, el desempleo subió hasta cerca del 22%, la deuda pública, que llegó al 165%, está por encima del 120% después de que Atenas hiciera una quita de 106.000 millones de euros y el déficit público rondará a finales de este año el 9%. Sus socios europeos ya le han tirado dos salvavidas –que parecen cargados de piedras–, uno por 110.000 millones de euros en mayo de 2010 y otro por 130.000 millones en febrero pasado.

Pero nada funciona. El último dato, conocido esta semana, habla de un país que se encamina a las listas del tercermundismo: uno de cada 11 griegos se alimenta en comedores sociales.

Alemania no afloja la soga del cuello griego. Berlín dijo ayer que espera la formación de un gobierno "responsable" en Atenas "que siga aplicando las reformas" prometidas. Por reformas Berlín entiende más ajustes. Si no, Europa cortaría el grifo de la ayuda.

Los partidos que suman más del 60% de los votos piden que se deje de cumplir con el servicio de la deuda. Si lo hicieran, Grecia, gracias a las brutales rebajas de salarios públicos y pensiones, ya tendría superávit fiscal, por lo que podría seguir pagando salarios y mantener la administración pública funcionando.

La prueba del hartazgo de los griegos es la entrada en el Parlamento, con el 7% de los votos y 21 diputados, del partido Aurora Dorada, una banda de neonazis, que usan un símbolo casi idéntico a la esvástica nazi. Hablan de una supuesta superioridad racial helena, exigen que se expulse a todos los inmigrantes y se minen las fronteras y obligan a los periodistas a levantarse para aplaudir cuando su líder llega a una conferencia de prensa.

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Global Economy Heading Downhill?

Global Economy Heading Downhill?
Author: Edward Hugh · May 8th, 2012 · Comments (2)
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According to the JP Morgan Global Composite PMI report, "Growth of global economic activity eased sharply to a five month low in April." The authors of the report found that on aggregate across the countries surveyed – 30 across the globe – both new order inflows and job creation fell back, leading them to the conclusion that "the world economy is set for a softer growth patch heading into midyear". Looking at the chart below, this certainly seems to be the case (the composite index is a measure derived from a weighted average of the manufacturing and services findings).

So momentum is weakening across the entire global economy at the present point, not just in say Europe, or China. Global output is still growing but it is growing at an increasingly weaker pace. What could change that? Well QE3 naturally. Why do I say that? Well look at the three significant surges in the chart. The first coincides with QE1, the second with QE2, and the third, much weaker one, fits in with the so called Operation Twist.

This tells us a number of things. In the first place these massive liquidity injections are not self sustaining, i.e. they give things a hefty push forward but even so they don't manage to jump start the various economies, especially in the developed world. They work for a bit, and then run out of steam. The fact that they systematically run out of steam tells me, at any rate, that something somewhere is broken, and that re-iterated injections on their own won't sort the problem out.

In Japan this very same "something" has now been broken since 1992, and continual liquidity injections and mounting government debt have not made it better. This is not the point to go in depth into what the something is, my story on this is scattered here and there across the various pieces of analysis I write. Suffice it to say that excessive debt and rapid population aging have to form part of the picture. Both constitute an important drag on growth. But the principal aim of this post isn't to add to the debate about what it is that is broken, it is simply to plead for a recognition that something is, and that, as a result, the situation won't simply "right" itself. This time there is no hidden helping hand.

What the various liquidity injections do do is buy time. Some people scorn that, and would rather take their armageddon full face and now. Each to his taste. If I get to die tomorrow rather than today, I am not ungrateful.

Liquidity injections are not quite the same thing as debt generation, although obviously there is a link – injections which involve straight monetisation of government debt (ECB LTRO lending against government guaranteed bank bond collateral in order to enable the bank to buy government bonds, for example) are clearly facilitating the generation of debt. While liquidity provision for its own sake in a deflated economic system is generally positive, debt generation for its own sake isn't necessarily so, since someone, someday, will have to pay it back, and if in the meantime we don't fix the problem (that "something" that is broken) then the somebody may be poorer than we are, in which case we are directly transferring income inter-generationally, from them to us. Debt to buy time for something which won't fix itself is not justified, and the money should be spent structurally, on implementing a fix. Grandiose infrastructure plans which have no real efficiency component were tried in Japan in the 1990s, and they didn't work.

"Even today, Japan is having trouble climbing out of its cement pit. At its high, in the mid-1990s, infrastructure spending accounted for 6 percent of its gross domestic product, double what the United States allocated for infrastructure in the '90s and still higher than what politicians are considering spending today. In estimates of national debt, the world's second-largest national economy is near the top of the list, perched between Lebanon and Jamaica. Last year, Japan's public debt was far greater than the size of its economy, a burden that makes its demographic challenges more difficult to address".

We face a situation which seems neither to have been contemplated in either the Austrian or the Keynesian theoretical frameworks (since both assume some sort of homeostatic corrective mechanism is ultimately at work) or in the any of the various versions of neoclassical growth theory, where some sort of semi-constant equilibrium growth path is assumed to exist, and be recoverable via the application of an appropriate set of structural reforms. Yet the three oldest societies on the planet – Japan, Germany and Italy – have been losing growth momentum for decades now, and it is quite possible will drift into negative average growth rates at some point in a non too distant future. Traditional theory never really contemplated this possibility (for a brief summary of my argument on this, see this recent interview I did with Andrew Pollen).

Now for my second main point. Where's the missing link? That is, where is the link between the Feds quantitative measures (or those of the other main developed economy central banks for that matter) and global economic momentum? Well, that's a bit of a longer story – although empirically I think it is easy to see the link is there. Basically the story has to do with international "carry" (borrowing cheap in one currency to lend dear in another, preferably with the value of the first currency falling, and the value of the second currency rising, a set of relations which "carry" itself propagates in good circular fashion), and risk sentiment. The liquidity injection makes people more willing to take on risk (think ECB and the 3yr LTROs), and the existence of the carry trade enables them to do it. Nothing new here, banks by their very nature are about intermediation, and leveraging spreads, its just that in an age of financial globalisation that intermediation has a lot more distant geographical reach.

And then of course, all that extra money helps people from Rio to New Delhi and from Ankara to Jakarta borrow up to the hilt to buy themselves a nice new flat, or SUV, or whatever.

Across Latin America's largest economy, record prices for the country's commodities and surging foreign fund inflows – what the International Monetary Fund calls "favourable tailwinds" – are driving a historic boom. Property prices are soaring, consumer credit is booming and bank profits swelling. But there are growing concerns over whether Brazil is becoming addicted to this windfall of easy money. Increasingly, there are fears that Brazil is heading for a bubble.

So excess liquidity which finds no outlet in developed economies floods into emerging markets, provoking unsustainable surges in demand and fueling inflation, which leads the local central banks to penalise borrowing in one way or another, and bring the whole dynamic to a halt again. At which point we get another liquidity injection in one of the major developed economies, and off we go again.

It is perhaps a sobering thought that households will be about as indebted in Brazil coming in to the next football World Cup as they were in Spain at the time of the 1992 Olympics, and then remember what happened next in the latter case. Brazil isn't facing a devastating bubble yet, but it could be one day if we don't find a better way of doing things.

Global Manufacturing In LimboLand

Even if it was services activity, rather than manufacturing, that showed the greatest global weakness during April, manufacturing was only able to gouge out a minimal improvement on what was already a weak March performance, and even then what growth there was was very unevenly distributed.

Overall output, new orders and employment all continued to rise during the month, but there was a marked divergence between the world's two largest industrial regions, the US and the Eurozone. In fact, the US remained one of the principal spurs of global manufacturing growth in April, with the US PMI rising to a ten-month high, provoking indirectly yet more debate about the desirability of austerity across the EU. Nonetheless, as can be seen from the chart, the surge in manufacturing output remains modest when compared with the two earlier waves, which is why I am among those who think that the arrival of some sort of QE3 is now only a matter of time.

The Eurozone manufacturing PMI, in contrast, posted its lowest reading in almost three years, as operating conditions deteriorated across all of the big-four Euro economies (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain). The US PMI is currently 8.9 points above its Eurozone equivalent, the greatest divergence in favour of the US since Eurozone data were first compiled in June 1997.

Meanwhile the Asia PMIs remained mixed with solid growth being signaled in India against only modest expansions in Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan and South Korea. Conditions also remained weak to subdued in China. So at this point in time, even the Asian economies as a group are hardly "powering ahead".

The most marked feature of the April reports as far as Europe is concerned is certainly the way in which conditions in core Europe continue to worsen. As the monthly report said,"the April PMIs also indicated that manufacturing weakness was no longer confined to the region's geographic periphery. The German PMI fell to a 33-month low, conditions deteriorated sharply again in France and the Netherlands also contracted at a faster rate". The rate of decline in new orders accelerated, and jobs were lost in German manufacturing for the first time in two years.

Indeed it is the state of the once mighty German economy that is now starting to give cause for concern. The economy suffered a mild contraction in the last three months of last year, and the possibility exists that this will be repeated in Q1 2012, in which case Germany will also be technically back in recession. Whether or not this is the case we will know in a week or so, but either way, the fact that it is a close call, and that things are evidently getting worse as we enter the second quarter certainly undermines some of the force in Angela Merkel's argument that austerity leads to growth.

As Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit and author of the German manufacturing report put it:

"Germany started the second quarter of 2012 with its worst manufacturing performance for almost three years, as another month of weaker order inflows finally brought production levels back into contraction. With backlogs of work failing to support output volumes in April, manufacturers cut their staffing numbers for the first time since March 2010.

"The investment goods sector was at the forefront of the downturn in April, as jitters about global economic conditions meant clients in export markets sought to delay large scale spending decisions. Investment goods producers saw export orders fall at the steepest pace in nearly three years, and in turn job losses were the most pronounced of the three main market groups monitored by the survey.

Germany's economy is export dependent. This export dependency comes from having a very high median population age. It is not a cultural quirk of the Germans. There is no fundamental issue with German competitiveness, there is not some major structural reform that is missing, there is not even over indebtedness in the public or private sectors. The only reason the German economy has fallen back into recession is that demand for its products among customers has dropped off, while the long awaited second pillar of domestic demand has once more failed to appear. It is as simple as that.

With the results of the recent French elections in the forefront of their minds, people are now starting to ask themselves just how Germany will respond to a Francois Hollande Presidency, forgetting that elections are also looming in Germany next year, and that the CDU is busily loosing ground. Whether or not Germany technically confirms a recession when the results for the first three months of the year are out in a week or so, the performance of the economy is visibly worsening and German leaders are under pressure to show they are willing and able to respond. Otherwise Angela Merkel may face wrath not only from those irritated by the having to contribute towards the bailouts, she will also have to contend with those irritated by her economic ineffectiveness back home. And in any event, the party which would gain from a Merkel electoral defeat – the SPD – are not that far from seeing things the way Monsieur Hollande does.

Which is why Angela Merkel's approach was always far too simplistic. As I have said a number of times, I think she is right to search for some sort of financial stability in the face of the aging population issue, but the best way to get from here to there is not necessarily to walk in a straight line. Naturally, austerity is a relative concept, but whether you are cutting your deficit from 10% to 9%, or from 3% to 2% as you go into a recession you still hit short term growth with a double whammy, as Italy is currently discovering. As can be seen in the chart below (which is the April Italian services PMI) domestic demand is plummeting on the back of the latest round of austerity, and this is leading the main centre left party in the government to at least cry ouch!

At the very least European fiscal policy needs to allow for a counter cyclical component, even as you pull back from a very high deficit level, and not, as at present, insist on an entirely pro-cyclical one in a recessionary environment, thus magnifying the amplitude of the demand swings. If an economy needs more than 5% deficit (or more than 10% for that matter) simply to get meaningful GDP growth, then you need to understand why this is and find solutions, since as I say above debt itself doesn't cure anything, and arguably as our populations age accumulated debt only makes things worse. But if one of the engines on the plane starts to malfunction, the objective needs to be to get the passengers to the ground safely, and not necessarily by the most direct route.

Naturally infrastructure work on the periphery which needed German technology would help German export companies, so it wouldn't be that hard to sell in the heimat. But what use would it be to the receiving countries? That we won't know until we see the proposals in detail, and discover how it is going to be financed. If such infrastructure would help exports, both within and outside Europe, then it could be a plus. If it is only to build high speed train networks that lead to nowhere (or as is currently under discussion in Spain up to a frontier with Portugal across which there will be no connection waiting on the other side) then we are simply falling into the Japan trap, and applying a simplistic 1930s version of Keynesianism that doesn't work in the present context. But at the end of the day, the fact we are having this debate in the first place only serves to highlight the fact that we still don't have a roadmap for coming out of the crisis in Europe, and we still don't know what our future is going to look like.

And meanwhile, of course, there is Greece, and that blasted ongoing economic contraction to think about.

As Paul Smith, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the Greece Manufacturing PMI report commented:

"April proved to be another difficult month for Greek manufacturers, with latest data again showing steep contractions across a number of key variables measured by the survey. "In line with recent reports, the issues facing manufacturers – and the Greek economy as a whole – remain deep rooted. Panelists again noted problems in accessing working capital and a culture of cash payments, implying that credit lines remain either closed or that agreements will come with restrictive terms.

"At present, it remains hard to see how these issues can be solved suggesting that the manufacturing sector is set for continued struggle in the months ahead."

Following his cue, and looking over at the latest election results in that unfortunate country, it remains hard to see how the issues arising can be solved, and it isn't clear what is going to happen next.

Filed under: Economic Growth, Euro, European Periphery, Japan

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Fwd: Macroperu Flujos de Inversión Directa extranjera en LA

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From: Bruno <lbseminario@yahoo.com>
Date: 2012/6/18
Subject: Macroperu Flujos de Inversión Directa extranjera en LA

 

Según la CEPAL, el año pasado la ineversión directa extranjera ascendió a 150,000 millones de dólares. 3/4 parte de esta se concentró en México y Brasil. La suma restante en CentroAmerica y el resto de America del Sur. Mientras que el destino en el primero grupo fue la manufactura y el sector servicios, en el segundo este lugar fue ocupado por los recursos naturales. El flujo destinado a inevestigacion en desarrollo totaliz{o casi cinco por ciento del total.

¿Por q}e Brasil reciben un flujo de ineversi{on que excede a su partiación en el PBI? Probablemnte porque las multinacionales pinesan usr estos paises como plataformas exportadoras hacia otros paises como plataforma exportadora a otros paises de al region: son las dos unicas economias de la region con un aparto industrial digno de consideraci}on. La manufactura en Sudamerica se reduce al procesamineto de alimentos, produccion de materiales de construccion , y procesamiento de materias primas, es dcir, a sectores donde la investigaci{on y desarrollo no tiene la mayor importancia . En estos sectores la investigacion y el desarrollo tine escasa relevancia pues los productos no ambia de forma. Despues de todo, uno no necesita cambiar la forma de las gaseoasas, loslos platos, o los ladrillos de las casas . El valor agregado directo de estos productos es 30 por ciento del costo total. Tambien es reducido el ipacto del mismo sobre estos sectores de la econom{ia.

Es posible, por ejemplo, que un dolara de textil exportado genra menos valor garegado que un dolara de harian de pescad y probablemnte igual cantidad de empleo. La exportacion de textiles con algodon importado corta la conexi{on del sector con la agricltura y hace desaprecer casi todo el impacto indirecto del sector. El mismo fecto reduce el valor agregado generado en el sector.

Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America Hit Record Highs in 2011
Author: Shannon Oneil · June 18th, 2012 · Comments (0)
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Last year foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America continued its surge, topping $150 billion, an all time high for the region. According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean's report "Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean," the inflows climbed 31 percent—the most of any region and three times Asia's growth rate—and now represent just over 10 percent of total global investment (breaking into the double digits for the first time as well).

While nearly all countries gained, the largest recipient, unsurprisingly, was Brazil. There, investments rose by 37 percent, and in a change from the past, flowed mostly into the manufacturing and service sectors (the largest single investment coming from the German conglomerate ThyssenKrupp's construction of a $7 billion steel exporting plant). Inflows to Mexico and Central America were also led by manufacturing and services (including tourism, banking, and the automotive sectors). Only in South America (excluding Brazil), did most of the investment remain in commodities and natural resources.

Despite tough times at home, Europe led with some $35 billion in investment. Anecdotes suggest that the profitability of Latin American subsidiaries and operations have helped keep some European companies afloat (for instance the Spanish banks Santander and BBVA). Following in total inflows was the United States, and, if taken in the aggregate, other Latin American states (which invested nearly $23 billion). Interestingly, these countries, Japan, and Canada all outpaced China's involvement.

The report also touches on the quality of FDI flows, and its potential to transform Latin America's economies for the better through job creation, technology transfers, capacity building, and the like. Here the story is better than in the past, but still cautionary. More investment (now over one-third) went into what can be considered medium-high tech sectors, such as chemicals, autos, and machinery. Most of this uptick occurred in Latin America's largest economies, Brazil and Mexico. The study also shows that investment in high end technology and research and development remains small (less than 5 percent) and concentrated in Brazil.

Foreign direct investment is a useful gauge of investor confidence and, indirectly, potential economic growth. Here Latin America's decade of macroeconomic stability, natural resource endowments, and expanding domestic markets (due to a growing regional middle class) have drawn increased attention and dollars. The challenge for the region is to funnel the growing investment to benefit its citizens alongside these international companies and investors, creating jobs, enhancing learning, and increasing productivity in ways that will let Latin America compete globally in the long term.

Published in conjunction with Latin America's Moment at the Council on Foreign Relations.

This post originally appeared at LatIntelligence and is posted with permissio

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Fwd: Oil-price.net - Oil Price, Today and Tomorrow

Oil-price.net - Oil Price, Today and Tomorrow

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Why Is Gas Price Remaining High When Oil Price Is Going Down? Posted: Logic would seem to dictate that if oil prices are going down, the price of gasoline should follow suit and go down also. However the opposite has been observed lately. Of course as is the case in any fluctuation of oil prices, there is a range of reasons responsible for this. So why exactly is the price of oil dropping whilst the price of [...].

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Fwd: Chart Focus: Mapping globalization

Chart Focus Newsletter December 2011 View on the Web: http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/newsletters/chartfocus/2011_12.htm Share Mapping globalization No more than 25 percent of economic activity is truly global, yet visions of a borderless planet entrance many senior executives. To grasp the realities of a world where distance and differences still matter, they should develop "rooted" maps, which correct the misimpression that a viewer's vantage point doesn't influence the way things look. The starting point for rooted maps is to create a reference map depicting your industry environment, but not your own company's or country's place in it. An executive at a film studio, for example, might develop a map in which the size of countries reflects their total box office revenues and the color depicts the market share of domestic movies. By comparing the reference map with rooted maps, executives can identify the impact of borders, distances, and differences. Read "Remapping your strategic mind-set" (August 2011) to see rooted maps depicting the worldwide revenues of US versus Indian films, the exposure of German and US banks to problematic European loans, and the provenance of the oil supplies of China, Europe, and the United States. Also of Interest April 2011 Drawing a new road map for growth New findings reveal how large and small companies grow—and the startling performance of players in emerging markets. July 2010 Applying global trends: A look at China's auto industry Strategists can challenge conventional wisdom and prepare for uncertainty by analyzing the complex interaction of global trends in their industries. June 2010 Global forces: An introduction Five crucibles of change will restructure the world economy for the foreseeable future. Companies that understand them will stand the best chance of shaping it. [includes video] March 2008 Dissecting global trends: An example from Italy Executives should examine the impact of trends on subindustries, segments, categories, and micromarkets before placing their bets.

Did you miss last month's Chart Focus? How high unemployment lingers Increasingly long periods of high unemployment followed the US recessions of the last two decades. Until the 1980s, employment rebounded about six months after GDP. But in the wake of the 1990–91 and 2001 recessions, it recovered 15 and 39 months, respectively, after GDP had returned to the prerecession peak. At recent rates of job creation, the lag this time will be more than 60 months. You are receiving this e-mail because you are a registered member of mckinseyquarterly.com and have subscribed to the Economic Studies list. To ensure delivery, add e.mckinseyquarterly.com to your address book. McKinsey & Company, 21 South Clark Street, Chicago, Illinois 60603 Manage your subscriptions Unsubscribe from this mailing Access our help tool Read privacy policy

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sobre crisis financiera global
http://www.betaggarcian.blogspot.com/

El Perú supera a UK en el ranking crediticio

¿Les provoca sorpresa esta curiosa nota periodística que apareció el día de hoy en el Telegrafo de Londres y que ilustra bastante bien cuan absurdos pueden ser los ranking crediticios? ¿Britain ranks below Peru in new `sovereign risk' world order

By Ian Cowie Your Money Last updated: November 7th, 2011

13 Comments Comment on this article

Peru: not as risky as Britain

Britain ranks below Peru in a new analysis by one of the world's biggest fund managers of the risk to investors who buy government bonds. Norway, Sweden and Switzerland are the least risky bond issuers among 44 countries analysed in the BlackRock Sovereign Risk Index. At the other end of the scale, also in descending order, Egypt, Portugal and Greece are reckoned to be the most risky.

Britain falls near the middle of this new world order, ranking directly below Russia, China, Czech Republic, Israel and Peru. Some small comfort may be taken from the fact that gilts issued by the British Government are reckoned to be a better bet than bonds issued by France, the Philipines and Poland; which rank directly below Britain.

Dissatisfaction with credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor's,Fitch and Moody's – which have issued nearly 100 sovereign risk downgrades since the global credit crisis began – prompted BlackRockto begin collating its own analysts' views earlier this year. It claims back-testing of this analysis suggests it is more accurate than the credit rating agencies' and that the current crisis will continue with more government's getting into trouble with excess debt.

Benjamin Brodsky, managing director of fixed interest at BlackRock said: "Our initial analysis was judgmentally based, and contemporaneously validated by a high correlation with sovereign credit default swap (CDS) market spreads. Over recent months we have constructed the back history of this approach running from, taking care to use `real-time' data.

"In this quarterly update for the index, we complement our earlier analysis, showing how the BlackRock Sovereign Risk Index (BSRI) has outperformed both ratings agencies and sovereign credit default swap spreads in highlighting downgrade risks.

"Considering heightened activity within the Eurozone periphery in recent years, we present a case study that focuses on Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. We show how the BSRI would have led agency activity over the span of these countries, while leading markets in their shift from complacency."

As independent analysis from the Centre for Economics and Business Research suggests Britain might be better off if the eurozone breaks up, Ewen Cameron Watt, managing director of investment strategy at BlackRock, said: "Driven by multiple fundamental insights to the nature of sovereign credit risk, the BSRI presents a useful tool for profiling the strengths and weaknesses of countries against one another.

"Our research suggests these insights can lead rating agency activity, with an excellent track record at preceding downgrades, and historically would have highlighted areas of market complacency.

"As a backdrop for the future, we believe the multi-decade compilation of sovereign and banking crises by Reinhart and Rogoff presents a compelling case that in recent years financial markets have been complacent about risks that have always been present and, as more countries approach their upper limits of sustainable leverage, a return to a higher incidence of crises seems likely."

A fundamental shift of economic wealth from West to East is underway and relative valuations of international bonds reflect that transition. Mark Dampier of wealth managers Hargreaves Lansdown put it most succinctly: "The emerging markets have the savings; the developed world has the debt. Sooner or later, prices will reflect those facts."

forecast europe 2011

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-10/recession-risk-grows-for-euro-region-as-commission-reduces-2012-forecast.html

Merkel :Europa unida frente a la potencia de los emergentes

ubject: UE se prepara para embestida de CHINA: Merkel dice que Europa tiene que estar unida frente a la potencia de los emergentes
Merkel dice que Europa tiene que estar unida frente a la potencia de los emergentes

EFE – vie, 28 oct 2011

Berlín, 28 oct (EFE).- La canciller alemana, Angela Merkel, resaltó hoy que la Unión Europea debe estar cohesionada si quiere defender su posición frente a mercados emergentes que son cada vez más potentes.

"Si no nos unimos en Europa, no tendremos posibilidad alguna ante 1.300 millones de chinos, 1.200 millones de indios y ante muchas otras regiones en el mundo", dijo Merkel en un acto de su partido, la Unión Cristianodemócrata (CDU) celebrado en Baviera.

Merkel subrayó que países emergentes como Brasil, México y China han salido relativamente fortalecidos de la crisis.

"Se han convertido en motores de crecimiento, tienen una dinámica increíble", dijo Merkel, quien resaltó que esos mercados son actualmente una alternativa para los inversores, frente a la UE o EEUU.

Por ello, Merkel subrayó que los países europeos deben dejar de basar su crecimiento en el endeudamiento y asumir la senda de la consolidación.

TCHANGE EURO/DOLAR 1999-2001

Evolution du Taux de change de l'Euro en Dollar depuis1999 Voici une présentation mise à jour de l'évolution yoyo du cours de l'euro-dollar depuis la création de l'euro en 1999, puis sa mise en circulation en 2002. On observe clairement la forte chute de… Pour lire la suite cliquez ici

PETROLE+TAUX CHANGE EURO7DOLAR

Evolution du Prix du Pétrole et Taux de Change de l'Euro en Dollar Deux graphiques pour un premier coup d'œil clair, …, et rapide. On observe clairement ci-dessous, la corrélation entre la hausse du cours du baril de pétrole brut (Brent en dollars par baril) et… Pour lire la suite cliquez ici © 2011 over-blog.com - Tous droits réservés

NAFTA Is Starving Mexico

NAFTA Is Starving Mexico

Posted on: 20/10/2011 by Laura Carlsen

Laura Carlsen

Since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) became the law of the land, millions of Mexicans have joined the ranks of the hungry. Malnutrition is highest among the country's farm families, who used to produce enough food to feed the nation.

As the blood-spattered violence of the drug war takes over the headlines, many Mexican men, women, and children confront the slow and silent violence of starvation. The latest reports show that the number of people living in "food poverty" (the inability to purchase the basic food basket) rose from 18 million in 2008 to 20 million by late 2010.

About one-fifth of Mexican children currently suffer from malnutrition. An innovative measurement applied by the National Institute for Nutrition registers a daily count of 728,909 malnourished children under five for October 18, 2011. Government statistics report that 25 percent of the population does not have access to basic food.

Since the 2008 food crisis, there has been a three percent rise in the population without adequate access to food. The number of children with malnutrition is 400,000 kids above the goal for this year. Newborns show the highest indices of malnutrition, indicating that the tragedy begins with maternal health.

The dramatic change in Mexican eating habits since NAFTA is not only reflected in the millions who go to bed hungry. On the other side of the scale, Mexico has in just a decade and a half become second only to the United States worldwide in morbid obesity. Child obesity, overweight, and diabetes now constitute major health problems, alongside the more traditional problem of hunger.

It's not that the rich are getting too fat and the poor too thin, although inequality plays a role in the erosion of healthy diets for all. Fatness no longer represents abundance. It is the poor who drink cheap Coca Cola when they do not have access to potable water or who give their kids a bag of potato chips when local fresh food is no longer available. The International Journal of Obesity finds that worldwide the spread of what they call "the Western diet" ("high in saturated fats, sugar, and refined foods but low in fiber) has meant that "the burden of obesity is shifting towards the poor." The NAFTA generation reflects the paradigm so eloquently described by food researcher and activist Raj Patel of "stuffed and starved".

With another food crisis looming due to rising international prices, Mexico could face food riots as well as the spread of starvation and its consequences over the coming year.

Unless the riots turn violent or spark more widespread social upheaval as they did in Arab countries, it's not likely that the news media will pay any attention.

NAFTA's Food (In)security Model

Something has gone terribly wrong. The nation that was slated for prosperity when it signed NAFTA has become an international example of severe structural problems in the food chain, from how it produces its food to what and how much (or how little) it consumes.

Mexican malnutrition has its roots in the way NAFTA and other neoliberal programs forced the nation to move away from producing its own basic foods to a "food security" model. "Food security" posits that a country is secure as long as it has sufficient income to import its food. It separates farm employment from food security and ignores unequal access to food within a country.

The idea of food security based on market access comes directly from the main argument behind NAFTA of "comparative advantage." Simply stated, economic efficiency dictates that each country should devote its productive capacity to what it does best and trade liberalization will guarantee access across borders.

Under the theory of comparative advantage, most of Mexico was deemed unfit to produce its staple food crop, corn, since its yields were way below the average for its northern neighbor and trade partner. Therefore, Mexico should turn to corn imports and devote its land to crops where it supposedly had a comparative advantage, such as counter-seasonal and tropical fruits and vegetables.

Sounds simple. Just pick up three million inefficient corn producers (and their families) and move them into manufacturing or assembly where their cheap labor constitutes a comparative advantage. The cultural and human consequences of declaring entire peasant and indigenous communities obsolete were not a concern in this equation.

Seventeen years after NAFTA, some two million farmers have been forced off their land by low prices and the dismantling of government supports. They did not find jobs in industry. Instead most of them became part of a mass exodus as the number of Mexican migrants to the United States rose to half a million a year. In the first few years of NAFTA, corn imports tripled and the producer price fell by half.

Conversion to other crops turned out to take years in most cases. Prices were volatile and harvests unreliable. It was not feasible at all on many small, often rocky plots where corn guarantees a subsistence diet for farm families. Niche markets failed to grow to much more than 2 percent of total agricultural production.

The areas that adapted successfully to industrial agriculture and agroexport crops are characterized by flagrant violation of the labor rights of migrant farm workers, widespread pollution and water waste, and extreme concentration of land and resources.

For the hungry, this means that prices set on the international market determine who eats and who starves. Mexican consumers now pay more for tortillas and food in general. Price hikes on the international market push basic food out of reach for the millions of poor in the country.

Food Dependency

In post-NAFTA Mexico, 42 percent of the food consumed comes in from abroad. Before NAFTA, the country spent $1.8 billion dollars on food imports. It now spends a whopping $24 billion. Rural researcher Ernesto Ladrón de Guevara notes that in some basic foods, the dependency on imports is dramatic: 80 percent in rice, 95 percent in soybeans, 33 percent in beans, and 56 percent in wheat. The country is the world's number-one importer in the world of powdered milk. NAFTA decimated Mexico's once-thriving dairy sector, and the market takeover by transnational powdered milk is linked to the crisis in infant malnutrition.

Mexico imports 33 percent of its consumption, a figure that belies the reliance on imports because the sheer volume of consumption is so large. Ladrón de Guevara states that it has gone from importing around 250,000 tons before NAFTA to 13 million tons. Transnational traders often favor imports over national production because of the attractive credit arrangements offered by the United States, making it "a double business—importing corn and money."

The U.S. department of agriculture estimates that if current trends continue Mexico will acquire 80 percent of its food from other countries (mostly the United States). The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization calls a country food dependent when the cost of its imports exceeds 25 percent of total exports. Peasant farmer organizations have criticized the definition as ludicrous in an oil-producing country that nonetheless has seen serious erosion in its capacity to feed its people and guarantee access to basic foods for all.

Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

The corporate takeover of Mexico's food system has led to the food and health catastrophe. Transnational food corporations not only import freely into Mexican food markets, they are now the producers, exporters, and importers all in one, operating inside the country.

Since NAFTA, corporations have gobbled up human and natural resources on an almost unbelievable scale. Livestock production has moved from small farms for local markets to Tyson, Smithfield, and Pilgrims Pride. The massive use and contamination of water and land has led to health and environmental disasters across the country. Millions of jobs have been lost to concentration and industrialized farming methods.

Take the case of Corn Products International (CPI). The transnational filed  a NAFTA claim against the Mexican government in 2003, claiming a loss to its business due to a tax levied on high fructose corn syrup in beverages. Mexico's reason for imposing the tax was to save a sugarcane industry that provided jobs for thousands of citizens and played a crucial economic role in many regions. The government was also frustrated by its failure under NAFTA to access the highly protected U.S. sugar market.

A 2008 NAFTA tribunal ruled that Mexico had to pay $58.4 million to CPI. The government paid up on January 25, 2011. CPI posted $3.7 billion dollars in net sales the year of the decision. The fine paid by the Mexican government could have provided a year's worth of the basic food basket to more than 50,000 poor families.

CPI's wholly owned subsidiary Arancia Corn Products is among the most powerful food transnationals operating in the country, along with Maseca/Archers Daniel Midland and Cargill. Large agribusiness companies allegedly played a key role in the 2007 tortilla crisis by hoarding harvest as the international price went up, artificially drying up the national market and selling at nearly double the price they paid for the harvest. That crisis brought tens of thousands of poor Mexicans out into the streets to protest a 50 percent rise in the price of tortillas.

NAFTA and other FTAs give corporations the power to define what we eat, what we buy at the store, who will have a job and who won't, and whether a village sustained by local food production will survive or witness the end of generations of livelihoods.

Feed the Hungry, Fix the System

Mexican organizations have begun to come together after years of divisions to respond to the food crisis and fix the badly broken system. They recently succeeded in reforming the Mexican constitution to include the right to food. Now the battle is on to adapt the rural budget to make that right a reality.

Small farmer organizations have joined with family farm organizations in the United States and Canada to call for the renegotiation of NAFTA to remove basic foods and agricultural production from the agreement. They recognize, though, that the Obama administration's about-face in its stated commitments to fair trade reforms have left little political space for change.

Instead, peasant organizations in all three countries are looking to grassroots efforts and movements to fix the food system before the crisis worsens. As Mexican organizations struggle for programs to address threats to food and agriculture, U.S. organizations are seeing an opportunity to join their demands to the Occupy Wall Street movement across the country. One of the grievances listed in the OWS Declaration of the New York City General Assembly reads: "They (large corporations) have poisoned the food supply through negligence, and undermined the farming system through monopolization." Food activists are now bringing issues of corporate concentration in food, commodity speculation and price hikes, and free trade to the general protests.

Corporate control of the food system locked in by NAFTA not only starves people in Mexico. It locks in a profoundly unhealthy food system for the entire region. No one expects the situation to get better by itself. As the crisis deepens, citizen movements are again heating up and seeking each other out across borders to protect their health, their livelihoods and their rights. In the future, what we eat, how we eat, and if we eat will depend on their efforts.

Laura Carlsen is Director of the Americas Program of the Center for International Policy http://www.cipamericas.org/. based in Mexico City. She has written extensively on food and agriculture, and NAFTA. This article first appeared in Foreign Policy in Focus http://www.fpif.org/

    

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BLOG monetarism

http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com/

UE:PREDICTIONS A LA BAISSE

http://www.lesechos.fr/economie-politique/monde/actu/0201695529946-crise-l-ofce-met-en-garde-contre-une-austerite-penalisante-pour-la-croissance-233837.php

crisis: Mentiras sobre mentiras

Mentiras sobre mentiras

Desde hace algunas semanas las comparaciones entre la situación de la economía y de los mercados financieros de 2008 con la actual se han convertido en algo cotidiano. El colmo de esta similitud lo hemos visto en Trichet, que en 2008 subió los tipos de interés porque el precio del crudo se había disparado y, no contento con eso, en 2011 y por el mismo motivo los subió 2 veces…¡Si hasta hemos tenido estos días un "trader loco" como el de enero de 2008! Pero aparte de la anécdota, lo cierto es que el meollo (crisis financiera y de crédito) es similar y ante los mismos problemas vemos las mismas "soluciones" de los mismos personajes. Siguen confundiendo un problema de solvencia con uno de liquidez y lo intentan arreglar inyectando dinero a la banca y como dice D. Lacalle: "Mientras los gobiernos se quejan de que el mercado es cortoplacista, todas las medidas que anuncian están enfocadas al mercado financiero y a corto plazo. El efecto es cada vez más agresivo en poco tiempo y se disipa también muy rápido". Hasta BCE vuelve a pedir (¿por qué no lo exigen?), como entonces, que los bancos utilicen beneficios para recapitalizarse en lugar de dar dividendos y el Ecofin aboga por las fusiones bancarias, remiendo que ya aplicaron en los EUA en 2008.

Pero más allá de todo esto personalmente algo me preocupa más. El otro día el Wall Street Journal publicaba que un gran banco francés tenía problemas para tomar dólares porque la banca americana le había cortado sus líneas de crédito. Por supuesto el banco lo desmintió y el ministro de finanzas y el gobernador del Banco de Francia…y a los pocos días BCE –en unión con otros bancos centrales- convocó unas subastas en $ ilimitadas para inyectar capital a los bancos de la €zona que los necesiten, una medida extraordinaria claramente motivada por los problemas que había anunciado el periódico. Es decir, todos los desmentidos eran falsos. Hace 3 años escribí un artículo titulado Responsabilidad que decía:

No puede ser que el ciudadano de a pie que se ha visto afectado por una crisis que apenas entiende sea el único que sufra las consecuencias y se use el dinero de sus impuestos para que los que nos han llevado a la crisis y todos sus cómplices sigan en sus poltronas. ¿Tiene que recuperarse la confianza? Cierto, pero para ello no hay nada mejor que sinceridad y responsabilidad. Que nos digan la verdad de una vez y que no comprometamos los ingresos del estado en unos gestores que nos han llevado a esto, que no lo supieron prever ni arreglar. Sin exigir responsabilidades monetarias, políticas e incluso penales si llega el caso, considero que no se resolverá la falta de confianza en el sistema.

Y seguimos exactamente igual que entonces. No sólo nadie pagó por Lehman., es que nadie ha respondido por las mentiras sobre la solvencia de Grecia, ni sobre los stress test a la banca que en 2010 dieron por buenos los resultados de la banca irlandesa, ni del por qué Zapatero asegura que España "va a financiarse por sí misma" si sabe que está dependiendo de las compras de deuda de BCE ni por tantas y tantas falsedades. Como excepción la nueva jefa del FMI Largarde fue valiente y declaró nada más llegar al cargo que la banca europea debería recapitalizarse. Todos se le echaron encima, los bancos tenían -¡por supuesto!- suficiente capital…menos de un mes después La UE asume que tiene que recapitalizar más a sus bancos aunque evita hablar de cifras. Es decir, las autoridades vuelven a engañarnos sin ningún reparo y parecen ignorar que la confianza es la base de todo nuestro sistema económico.

El caso español es sintomático: nadie se cree la situación de nuestro sistema financiero que nos quieren vender. Y el principal responsable es Banco de España: Intentó colarle CCM a Unicaja hasta que una auditoría de la caja andaluza descubrió el agujero que o bien no supieron ver los inspectores o bien ocultaron. Algo similar pasó con Cajasur y estos días hemos descubierto que las necesidades de capital de la CAM, que hace poco más de 2 meses eran de 947 millones ahora son en torno a 20 veces más. Vean este copy-paste de la sala de prensa de la CAM del 15 de Julio de 2011 (a ver cuánto tardan en eliminar el vínculo) :

CAJA MEDITERRÁNEO NO NECESITA NINGUNA APORTACIÓN DE CAPITAL ADICIONAL
• La Entidad supera el test de estrés teniendo en cuenta las provisiones genéricas
• CAM ya está desarrollando con éxito su Plan de Recapitalización cumpliendo con estrictas medidas de ahorro de costes

Por otra parte, cada vez que se ha intervenido a alguna caja los beneficios se han convertido en pérdidas y la tasa de morosidad se ha multiplicado lo que demuestra que la labor supervisora de Banco de España y las auditorías son absolutamente ineficaces…o corruptas, o ambas cosas, ¿Cómo entonces creernos la tasa de morosidad oficial o los resultados que se publican? Y nuestra opinión al fin y al cabo no les importa pero sí les preocupa la de los grandes inversores que, por falta de confianza, están deshaciendo sus inversiones en España o poniendo capital sólo con notables descuentos sobre el valor en libros y están –quizás injustamente o quizás no- metiendo en el mismo saco a todas las empresas por el hecho de ser españolas pero, ¿Podemos culparles?

Y nos vuelven a engañar –o a pretenderlo- y nos dicen que la crisis de deuda es culpa de los especuladores y que el Ibex baja por los bajistas pero hace ya semanas que BCE está comprando bonos españoles y que están prohibidas nuevas posiciones cortas en la bolsa…y la crisis sigue ahí: tipos demasiado altos para poder conseguir fondos y el Ibex en mínimos desde 2009. No es un caso exclusivo español, las mentiras sobre mentiras que van acumulando unos y otros son globales pero si la única solución para la €zona son los €bonos y/o una mayor unión política y económica entre los diferentes países, la confianza será absolutamente necesaria. Y la sinceridad es el primer paso para conseguirla.

Plan de Obama tiene respaldo, con encuesta adjunta - Un abrazo GS.

GALLUP

September 20, 2011

Americans Favor Jobs Plan Proposals, Including Taxing Rich

Majority say Obama's jobs plan will help economy at least "a little"

by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans generally favor raising taxes on higher-income Americans and eliminating tax deductions for some corporations as ways of paying for President Obama's proposed jobs plan.

Obama laid out his proposals for the jobs bill in an address to Congress on Sept. 8, and sent the bill to Congress a few days later. Since then, the president has been pushing Congress to adopt the plan, although there are no signs yet as to when either House of Congress will begin to debate the bill.

The president also proposed raising taxes on wealthy Americans in his deficit-reduction proposal announced on Monday at the White House. Republican leaders have responded that this idea represents nothing more than "class warfare," but the current data show that the majority of Americans generally favor increasing taxes on the rich as a way to increase revenue.

Slightly more than half of rank-and-file Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favor the idea of eliminating certain corporate tax deductions as a way to pay for a jobs creation bill. Forty-one percent of Republicans favor raising taxes on higher-income Americans. Democrats strongly favor both proposals for paying for the cost of the jobs bill.

Americans Favor Almost All Proposals in Obama's Jobs Plan

Americans agree with a number of the job-creation proposals included in Obama's jobs plan -- specifically including the ideas of providing tax cuts to small businesses; providing additional funds for hiring teachers, police officers, and firefighters; and giving tax breaks to corporations for hiring the long-term unemployed. Slightly less than half favor reducing Social Security taxes for workers and employers.

While Democrats are generally more supportive than Republicans of these proposals to create jobs, at least half of Republicans favor four of the six proposals tested.

Republicans are particularly likely to favor the idea of tax cuts for small businesses and tax breaks for companies hiring the long-term unemployed, but also favor providing funds for hiring teachers, police officers, and firefighters, and providing funds for public works projects. Less than half favor the idea of reducing Social Security taxes or extending unemployment insurance benefits.

The Sept. 15-18 survey results reveal that a majority of Americans are at least modestly sanguine that the bill would help create jobs and help the economy more generally, with roughly one in four believing it would help both areas "a lot."

This is in line with Gallup's findings that a plurality of Americans want their representative in Congress to vote in favor of Obama's proposed jobs bill, based on a question that did not describe specific components of the bill.

Democrats are highly likely to say Obama's proposed plan will help create jobs and help the economy, while Republicans largely disagree.

Bottom Line

This is the second Gallup survey conducted in the last two weeks showing that the American public broadly supports Obama's jobs plan. A majority of Americans interviewed this past weekend believe the plan would help at least a little to create jobs and improve the economy.

Many of the proposals embedded in the plan receive majority support, and Americans strongly endorse the idea of paying for the plan by raising taxes on higher-income individual taxpayers and by eliminating tax deductions for some corporations. While Republicans are considerably less positive about the potential efficacy of the plan than are Democrats, a majority of the former favor a number of Obama's proposals, and also favor eliminating tax deductions for corporations to help fund the plan.

Survey Methods

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 15-18, 2011, with a random sample of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit www.gallup.com.

30 señales de que la economía de EE.UU. está a punto de ir en el inodoro

30 señales de que la economía de EE.UU. está a punto de ir en el inodoro

....Las cosas están a punto de ser absolutamente una pesadilla. Ninguna de las tendencias económicas de largo plazo que están vaciando nuestra economía han sido abordados y las noticias económicas más mal parece salir casi todos los días. Ahora se habla constantemente de la "próxima recesión" en los medios de comunicación. Pero, ¿la última recesión siempre verdad final? El número de buenos puestos de trabajo continúa disminuyendo, más tiendas están cerrando, los ingresos seguirán disminuyendo, la deuda de tarjetas de crédito y de deuda de préstamos estudiantiles se han disparado, el mercado inmobiliario se asemeja a un cadáver, el número de estadounidenses que viven en la pobreza sigue en aumento y la deuda pública se encuentra en niveles sin precedentes. Estamos perdiendo rápidamente la sangre, y casi todos nuestros líderes son demasiado corruptos o incompetentes no son capazes de hacer nada al respecto. La economía real de EE.UU.  está a punto de entrar en el baño, y si algo no se hace muy rápidamente vamos a experimentar un desastre económico total y completa en esta nación.

A los estadounidenses se les ha prometido una y otra vez que esta crisis económica es sólo "temporal" y que las cosas volverán pronto a la normalidad. Durante este ciclo de las próximas elecciones, los demócratas aseguran que tienen todas las respuestas y que si tan sólo los eligen todo estará bien. Los republicanos también juran tener todas las respuestas y que si tan sólo los eligen todo estará bien.

Así, ambas partes están mintiendo. Los planes económicos de los dos principales partidos políticos son una broma. Ninguno de ellos puede restaurar la prosperidad económica de esta nación.

Nuestros políticos podrían retrasar el colapso económico que viene con préstamos gigantescos montones de dinero y el bombeo de todo ese dinero en la economía. Pero robar a nuestros hijos y nuestros nietos no es exactamente una buena política económica.

Sí, la economía de EE.UU. está en mal momento, pero las cosas se van a poner aún peor. Los problemas a largo plazo que están destruyendo nuestra economía no se han fijado, y las fugas en nuestro barco va a seguir creciendo.

Los siguientes son los 30 signos de que la economía de EE.UU. está a punto de entrar en el baño ....

# 1 Un número creciente de estadounidenses desempleados se han convertido en tan desesperados que han comenzado a buscar trabajo en el extranjero. Por ejemplo, el número de estadounidenses que se presenten solicitudes para visas de trabajo temporal en Canadá se ha duplicado desde 2008. Otros estadounidenses están dispuestos a aprender idiomas extranjeros y los viajes al otro lado del mundo si eso es lo que se necesita para conseguir un trabajo decente. Sólo considere la siguiente cita de un de un informe reciente de EE.UU. Hoy en día 

Empresas de inserción laboral están reportando un aumento en el interés de los trabajadores estadounidenses en las economías en auge como Hong Kong, Singapur, China y, cada vez más, la India. Socios de caza, una firma de búsqueda ejecutiva, estima que se está haciendo un 50% a 100% más de hojas de vida no solicitados de Estados Unidos en busca de posiciones con sede en Asia que antes de la recesión.

Ver el articulo completo en:

 http://negociostruchos.blogspot.com/2011/09/30-senales-de-que-la-economia-de-eeuu.html

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Perlmutter, Schmidt y Riess, Premio Nobel de Física 2011

Perlmutter, Schmidt y Riess, Premio Nobel de Física 2011

Han ganado el premio por sus estudios sobre el descubrimiento de la expansión acelerada del universo

Estrella Digital/EP, 04/10/2011 | 13:29 h. 

Los astrónomos estadounidenses Saul Perlmutter, Brian P. Schmidt y Adam G. Riess son los ganadores del Premio Nobel de Física 2011 por sus estudios sobre el descubrimiento de la expansión acelerada del universo, informó este martes la Real Academia de Ciencias de Suecia.

Los tres científicos estadounidenses fueron reconocidos "por el descubrimiento de la expansión acelerada del universo a través de la observación de supernovas lejanas", informó la academia.

Las observaciones realizadas por estos astrónomos, asociados en dos equipos distintos, de la explosión de un tipo concreto de estrellas al final de su vida (supernova) y el análisis de la luz emitida en esos momentos les permitió demostrar que el universo crece de forma acelerada y no cada vez más despacio, como se creía.

Perlmutter, nacido en 1959 en EEUU, dirige el Proyecto Cosmológico Supernova, en la Universidad de Berkeley.

Su colega Schmidt, nacido asimismo en Estados Unidos en 1967 y con nacionalidad además australiana, es profesor de la Universidad Nacional de Australia.
El tercer galardonado, nacido en Washington en 1969, es profesor de astronomía y física en Baltimore (EEUU).

El anuncio del galardón sigue al premio Nobel de Medicina otorgado ayer, que compartieron el estadounidense Bruce Beutler, el franco-luxemburgués Jules Hoffmann y el canadiense Ralph Steinman, fallecido el pasado viernes.

A estos anuncios seguirán mañana el Nobel de Química, el de Literatura el jueves, y el de la Paz el viernes, mientras que el de Economía se dará a conocer el lunes.

La entrega de los Nobel se realizará, de acuerdo a la tradición, en dos ceremonias paralelas, en Oslo para el de la Paz y en Estocolmo los restantes, el día 10 de diciembre, aniversario de la muerte de Alfred Nobel.

Fwd: [mpep] Des vidéos pour comprendre le système bancaire et financier

http://www.m-pep.org
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DES VIDÉOS POUR COMPRENDRE LE SYSTÈME BANCAIRE ET FINANCIER

Par le Mouvement politique d'éducation populaire (M'PEP).

Le 10 octobre 2011.

L'association Réséda est composée de quelques journaliste indépendants indignés de la manière dont la « grande » presse rend compte de la crise du système bancaire, monétaire et financier. Elle a donc décidé de monter une série de vidéos à partir de personnalités non « orthodoxes », afin de mieux comprendre la situation actuelle.

Elle prépare en outre, avec une société coopérative de production, un DVD qui reprendra le même thème avec pour objectif de le vendre à des télés et de l'utiliser comme support dans des réunions militantes.

4 vidéos pour mieux comprendre la crise bancaire, monétaire et financière :

• Crise 2008 - La création monétaire
  
• Crise 2008 - Financiarisation de l'économie
  
• Crise 2008 - Endettement généralisé
  
• Crise 2008 - Quelques perspectives