daniel cohen,normal sup paris

http://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/fr/cohen-daniel/

silem sur la crise

http://www.slideshare.net/myriamyasmine

presentations slideshare

MODELAMIENTO y prospectiva

http://www.ifs.du.edu/

Fwd: Macroperu Coyuntura Internacional

Bruno Seminario,Estimados amigos

cosas comienzan a cambiar y una dirección que sería prudente discutir.

Como saben los republicanos acaban de elegir al candidato que competirá con Obama en las próximas elecciones. Según las encuestas electorales ambos están empatados de modo que el resultado es, por el momento, poco predecible. Aunque para el Perú , América Latina, y o cualquier país del tercer Mundo, importa poco quién será elegido, pues ningún candidato ofrece nada diferente a nuestra región, la lección posee cierta importancia.

La crisis del 2008 y el largo periodo de estancamiento que siguió a la misma han efecto alterado drástica mente las condiciones económicas y políticas que prevalecián en el mundo en los primeros diez años del nuevo milenio.

Debemos notar en particular los siguientes desarrollos. En primer lugar, el flujo migratorio hacia Estados Unidos se ha detenido y este movimiento, si persistiera en el tiempo, puede disminuir el dinamismo económico de todos de los países con una demografía declinante. Así, es probable que disminuya la tasa de crecimiento de la población de Estados Unidos, y, la población en términos absolutos de varias economías Europeas. En segundo lugar, las relaciones financieras de los principales grupos se han alterado drásticamente. En particular, el déficit en Cuenta corriente de USA, por la devaluación del dolar y la debilidad de la demanda interna, se ha reducido drásticamente, de manera que China esta perdiendo gradualmente el papel que tenía como principal compradora de los bonos de Estados Unidos. También, las nuevas políticas de China, menos centradas en el crecimiento exportador y mas en el impulso en la demanda interna, han reducido el superávit de China . De manera que los desequilibrios externos de Estados Unidos practicamente han desparecido. De continuar estas tendencias, es probable que en los próximos diez años, se inicie un nuevo ciclo de revaluacion del dólar. Estos ciclos suelen ir acompañados de incrementos en la tasa de interés y una reducción en el precio de las materias primas. ¿Coómo se financian el déficit fiscal de Estados Unidos? Por el momento, el principal factor es el aumento en el ahorro interno de los consumidores en Estados Unidos, pero es probable que las elecciones , especialmente, si ganan los republicanos produzcan acciones d política orientadas a acelerar su reducción. La gran pregunta es si Estados Unidos puede encontrar en este nuevo contexto un nuevo mecanismo de crecimiento? Greenspan tuvo éxito, especialmente a principios de los noventa, en reducir el déficit gracias al aumento en la rentabilidad del capital que produjo la revolución de la información, pero esta revolución ya alcanzo su plena madurez y no parece que la nuevas innovaciones en el campo de la informática tengan la suficiente fuerza como para desatar un nueva ola de inversiones en el sector de lata tecnología, de modo que una repetición de esta estrategia no parece viable, por el momento. ¿Cual puede ser la salida de la economía de estados Unidos? Quizás, un nuevo aumento en los gastos militares, para modificar el mapa del medio Oriente y contener la expansión militar de China en el Pacífico? Para que este escenario funcione, Estados Unidos tendría que garantizar su control sobre las fuentes de energía y desarrollar nuevas tecnologías para reemplazar al petróleo. Una posibilidad que no podemos descartar si consideramos las nuevas tecnologías de extracción de gas natural y la posibilidad de que este combustible sustuya al petróleo.

Spain: deficit fiscal para llegar al 6% PIB

http://www.lesechos.fr/economie-politique/monde/actu/0201577932439-l-espagne-adopte-de-nouvelles-mesures-anti-crise-208196.php

Sobre peligros de las plantas nucleares de Jap{on

Q&A: Dangers posed by Japan's quake-hit atom plant

• 
  Sat Mar 12, 2011 10:53am EST

(Reuters) - Analysts and industry representatives gave different assessments of the potential dangers after an explosion blew the roof off one of Japan's nuclear power plants damaged in Friday's massive earthquake.
It underlined the fluid and unpredictable situation at the Fukushima Daiichi facility north of Tokyo, from which the Japanese government said radiation leaked.
The critical issue is what has happened or is happening with the reactor fuel -- which contains almost all the radioactivity in the plant -- and whether it is damaged.
"We don't know enough about what the status of the fuel is in the reactor core," Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said. "The issue is whether the core is uncovered, whether the fuel is breaking up or being damaged, or whether the fuel is melting."
WHAT HAPPENED AT THE PLANT?
The blast at the 40-year-old Daichi 1 reactor came as plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co (Tepco) worked to reduce pressures in the core after the total loss of power needed to keep water circulating to prevent it from overheating.
It led to fears of a disastrous meltdown at the plant, which automatically shut down after the quake, even though the government insisted that radiation levels were low.
"The most probable (cause of the explosion) is the coolant, particularly if it's water, can overheat and turn to steam more rapidly than it was designed to cope with," said nuclear fuel technology professor Timothy Abram at Manchester University.
The cause and exact location of the blast still needs to e established, said nuclear physics professor Paddy Regan at the University of Surrey. "So far it looks like it's not the reactor core that's affected, which would be good news."
The World Nuclear Association, a London-based industry body, said the blast was probably due to hydrogen igniting and that this was unlikely to cause a big accident by itself.
"It is obviously an hydrogen explosion," communications director Ian Hore-Lacy said. "If the hydrogen has ignited, then it is gone, it doesn't pose any further threat."
HOW SERIOUS COULD IT BE?
Views differ. Stratfor, a risk consultancy, said the blast appeared to have caused a reactor meltdown, but this was contradicted by others who dismissed any comparisons with the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster in Ukraine.
"The reactor fuel appears to have at least partially melted, and the subsequent explosion has shattered the walls and roof of the containment vessel," Stratfor said in an analysis.
"There have been reports of "white smoke," perhaps burning concrete, coming from the scene of the explosion, indicating a containment breach and the almost certain escape of significant amounts of radiation."
But Abram, the Manchester professor, said it was unlikely it would develop into anything more serious, even though this would depend on the integrity of the fuel.

__._,_.___

Resiliencia macroeconómica

Tomado de Macroeconomic Resilience The Great Divide between Academics and Practitioners with 2 comments In an excellent article, Mark Thoma highlights the great divide between academics and practitioners in economics. He also identifies the fundamental reason for this divide – practitioners typically rely on intuition and rough heuristics whereas academics rely on rigorous theoretical constructs. In Herbert Simon's terminology, practitioners are satisficers, not optimisers. In a recent post, I outlined my preferred framework to analyse monetary policy as an attempt to influence the real rate curve. Clearly, this viewpoint is not rigorous but for my purposes transforming this framework into a theoretically watertight construct is not worth the effort. The aim of the framework is simple to give me a quick and dirty but useful way to process information and market data. It is also almost certain that in some scenarios, this framework will break down – but instead of thinking about all such scenarios in advance, I simply trust that my experience and my gut instinct will warn me when such a scenario occurs. To most academics, the process I have outlined above would seem to be a distinctly unscientific and "irrational" method. But as I have argued before, heuristics and intuition are rational responses in an uncertain environment where time and resources are scarce. Herbert Simon and Gerd Gigerenzer have both done excellent work on the role of heuristics but the most relevant research on the role of intuition has been undertaken by Gary Klein and other researchers in the field of 'Naturalistic Decision Making' (NDM). NDM originated from Klein's work in analysing the decision-making of firefighters – as Klein explains in this recent interview, expert firefighters follow a process that is far removed from the conventional definition of rational choice. They "build up a repertoire of patterns so that they can immediately identify, classify, and categorize situations, and have a rapid impulse about what to do. Not just what to do, but they're framing the situation, and their frame is telling them what are the important cues. That's why they're always looking, or usually looking, in the right place. They know what to ignore, and what they have to watch carefully." There's nothing magical about this: "Intuition is about expertise and tacit knowledge. I'll contrast tacit knowledge with explicit knowledge. Explicit knowledge is knowledge of factual material. I can tell people facts, I can tell them over the phone, and they'll know things. I can say I was born in the Bronx, and now you know where I was born. That's an example of explicit knowledge, it's factual information. But there are other forms of knowledge. There's knowledge about routines. Routines you can think of as a set of steps. But there's also tacit knowledge, and expertise about when to start each step, and when it's finished, when you're done and ready to start the next one, and whether the steps are working or not. So even for routines, some expertise is needed. There are other aspects of tacit knowledge that are about intuition, like our ability to make perceptual discriminations, so as we get experience, we can see things that we couldn't see before…. Judgments based on intuition seem mysterious because intuition doesn't involve explicit knowledge. It doesn't involve declarative knowledge about facts. Therefore, we can't explicitly trace the origins of our intuitive judgments. They come from other parts of our knowing. They come from our tacit knowledge and so they feel magical. Intuitions sometimes feel like we have ESP, but it isn't magical, it's really a consequence of the experience we've built up." Larry Summers is correct in noting that the solution is not for practitioners to become academics. It is for more academics to rigorously analyse the intuitive and heuristic-based methods and explanations that practitioners use. The real gap is in the paucity of applied economists and the misguided view of applied work with data-crunching rather than practical knowledge. As Daniel Kahneman explains in his introduction to Gary Klein's interview: "In the US, the word "applied" tends to diminish anything academic it touches. Add the word to the name of any academic discipline, from mathematics and statistics to psychology, and you find lowered status.  The attitude changed briefly during World War II, when the best academic psychologists rolled up their sleeves to contribute to the war effort. I believe it was not an accident that the 15 years following the war were among the most productive in the history of the discipline.  Old methods were discarded, old methodological taboos were dropped, and common sense prevailed over stale theoretical disputes. However, the word "applied" did not retain its positive aura for very long. It is a pity. Gary Klein is a living example of how useful applied psychology can be when it is done well. Klein is first and mainly a keen observer. He looks at people who are good at their job as they exercise their skills, sometimes in life-and-death situations, and he reports what he sees in clear and eloquent prose.  When you read his descriptions of real experts at work, you feel that it is the job of theorists to accommodate what he has seen – instead of doing what we often do, which is to scan the "real world" (when we think of it at all) for illustrations of our theoretical notions." The divide that Mark Thoma identifies is not restricted to economics – in the age of 'Big Data', all academic disciplines are moving away from the sort of work that requires researchers to get their hands dirty. In an excellent post, Jennifer Jacquet explains how field ecologists like Robert Paine are a dying breed, being replaced by ecologists more at home on a computer than in the field. This is not a criticism of mathematical ecology, simply an assertion that the kind of insights that Bob Paine derived from spending "45 years knee-deep in kelp and invertebrates on Washington State's coast" are valuable and cannot be replicated by other means. This presumption that data and theory can substitute for experience on the ground is symptomatic of the broader problem of the downgrading of tacit and contextual knowledge highlighted by many other changes in academic economics, most notably the neglect of economic history and institutional detail. One of the most striking deficiencies in economic theory that was exposed during the crisis was the disconnect between monetary economics and the institutional reality of the new regime of shadow banking and derivatives. Hyman Minsky's theories are relevant not because of their theoretical elegance but because of their firm grounding in the institutional evolution of the post-war monetary and banking system, a topic that he researched in great detail. An example of how this balance between the theoretical and applied fields can be restored is provided by the collaborative work between Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein. Kahneman and Klein have spent their entire careers tackling the same field (the psychology of decision-making) with diametrically opposed approaches – Kahneman focuses on controlled lab experiments, comparisons of decision-making performance to an objective optimum, and a generally skeptical stance towards human cognition. Klein focuses on research in real-world organisations, analysis of actual performance through more subjective variables and a generally admiring stance on human cognition. Yet they were able to collaborate and find common ground, the results of which are summarised in a fascinating paper. Economics could do with more applied researchers like Gary Klein as well as more theoretical researchers like Daniel Kahneman who are open to applied practical insights. ++++++++++ A great divide holds back the relevance of economists Jul 26, 2011 08:45 EDT economics | forecasts By Mark Thoma The opinions expressed are his own. Reuters invited leading economists to reply to Mark Thoma's Op-Ed on the "great divide" in economics and will be publishing the responses. Here are responses from Ashwin Parameswaran, James Hamilton, Dean Baker, Lawrence Summers, and a recap of Paul Krugman's. How much confidence would you have in the medical profession if the teaching faculty in medical schools had very little experience actually treating patients, and very little connection to – even a lack of respect for – the practitioners in the field? Would your confidence be improved if medical research had little to do with the questions that are important to the doctors trying to serve patients? Unfortunately, that's a pretty good description of how economics has been practiced. The questions academic economists are trying to answer have little connection to the problems faced by business economists trying to help their firms make good, profitable decisions (and vice-versa). And though academics pay some attention to government policy, particularly Federal Reserve policy, addressing the problems faced by government economists trying to help policymakers make the best possible choices is not the main focus of this research. This division between academic, government, and business economists is driven by the fact that economic theory and econometrics can be used for two different things. One is learning about how the world works. These "how and why" questions are the focus of academic research. For example, academic economists try to understand why demand curves slope downward, how business-cycle fluctuations in GDP come about, and how prices are determined in market economies. The other use of theoretical and empirical economic models is forecasting, for example predicting where the economy is headed so that businesses can react accordingly, and predicting what might happen if various government policy proposals are implemented. These are the "what if" questions that economists in government and business are most interested in. What will happen to tax revenue if business taxes are cut? What will happen to the demand for my product if the Fed raises interest rates? What is the most likely course that the economy will take? Again, a comparison with the medical field is useful. Science can help us to learn about how the body works, and that certainly aids our efforts to battle disease. This is an important area of research, and we wouldn't want to cut it short. But knowing how the body works isn't enough, we also need the ability to diagnose current illnesses and to predict when someone is going to get sick. In addition, we need to have treatments available to fix the problems that we've identified. Periodic checkups, for example, allow us to predict who might get coronary disease, and then take action to avoid much bigger problems down the road. Academic economists have emphasized the "how it works" part of economics; in econometrics, for example,  the focus is on hypothesis testing to determine which model of the economy is best, rather than on forecasting the future of the economy. Academic economists do evaluate policy proposals theoretically and empirically, and they do provide forecasts of the economy. But forecasting in particular is not the main focus of their efforts, , and they've all but ignored – even looked down their noses upon – forecasters and practitioners in the government and business communities. They are often viewed as data grubbers who use old-fashioned models and techniques, and are thus unworthy of attention from high-minded academics. However, a few practitioners saw the housing bubble coming. Shouldn't academic economists try to learn from them? What did they see that the academics missed? In addition, if the practitioners in the field are unaware of or do not have the technical ability to use the best approaches to the problems they face – criticism from academic economists over how business economists used value-at-risk models prior to the recession comes to mind – whose fault is that? Shouldn't academics try to help the practitioners get over this hurdle instead of turning their backs on the problem, and then looking down at them when they don't use or misapply cutting edge techniques? The failure of academic economists to predict the crisis shows just how costly such insularity and arrogance can be. The patient (the economy) didn't need to have a heart attack (financial meltdown), because even though the signs were there, the academic community had little interest in learning how to read them, let alone in developing early warning and intervention strategies for bubbles and other problems. The Fed does some of this, of course, and the financial crisis has motivated some academic interest in developing early warning systems that would have helped us to identify and do something about stock, housing, and other bubbles before they inflated to dangerous levels. The medical profession would do much worse without connections between the practitioners in the field and the how-it-works types in the labs. The questions researchers ask, for example, are shaped by the needs of the practitioners trying to prevent and cure illness. What types of tests can doctors do in their offices and labs to quickly and reliably indicate the current health of a patient and to forecast future health problems? In economics, if reliable tests for bubbles had been available to business economists, that could have saved the economy from considerable losses. Economics has lost the connection between the practitioners and the academics. This may have something to do with the desire among economists to become more of a science – a heavy focus on theory and math is the result. But no matter the cause, if we want to do all that we can to avoid big economic problems, and if we want to use the feedback from those testing economic ideas on real world applications as a way of better understanding how the economy works, then we must reestablish these ties. PHOTO: A stethoscope rests on a container of hand sanitizer inside of the doctor's office of One Medical Group in New York March 17, 2010. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

USA: WSTREET DECAE

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126564300893442671.html?mod=WSJS_inicio_LeftTop

Macroperu Hayek vs Keynes: un rap

disasi

Lamentablemente este video no está en castellano. Es una explicación de las diferencias entre las propuestas de política económica de Hayek y las de Keynes a propósito de la crisis financiera internacional. Los autores simularon un debate... con un rap.

http://www.atikaperu.com/2010/01/hayek-vs-keynes-un-rap.html

Diego Isasi
www.AtikaPeru.com

/

dsk: revoir le modele de croissance

http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2009/11/24/04016-20091124ARTFIG00576-strauss-kahn-il-faut-revoir-notre-modele-de-croissance-.php

euro;dollar 1.496

http://www.lesechos.fr/info/marches/afp_00204145-l-euro-monte-nettement-face-au-dollar-apres-de-bons-indicateurs.htm

France: sortir de la crise, Nouveaux modeles de croissance

Le dernier rapport de daniel cohen et le groupe d´analyse strategique
http://www.strategie.gouv.fr/article.php3?id_article=1064

Revista Moneda N° 141: Horizonte de las economías emergentes en el escenario global

la revista Moneda presenta una contribucion de Paul Castillo sobre la respuesta del Banco Central a la crisis

----- Original Message -----
From: BCRP
To: ggarcianunez@mail.com
Subject: Revista Moneda N° 141: Horizonte de las economías emergentes en el escenario global
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 2009 09:42:14 -0500

FMI : les banques centrales n'ont pas vu les «signaux» de la crise

A Panizzo (lefigaro.fr)
22/09/2009 | Mise à jour : 19:14 |
Le Fonds monétaire international s'est inquiété mardi des points de croissance perdus par l'économie mondiale et souhaite un élargissement des pouvoirs de surveillance des banques centrales au niveau macroéconomique.

Dans son rapport intitulé « Perspectives de l'économie mondiale », le Fonds monétaire international dresse un tableau des principaux enseignements que l'on peut tirer des 88 crises bancaires de ces 40 dernières années. Dans un des chapitres de l'étude, l'institution s'inquiète de la croissance perdue par l'économie mondiale ces prochaines années à cause de la crise financière. «Les crises bancaires ont généralement des répercussions durables sur la production, même si la croissance finit par reprendre. Les baisses du taux d'emploi, de l'investissement et de la productivité sont autant de facteurs qui contribuent à prolonger les pertes de production». Le FMI note ainsi que pour un pays moyen, le niveau de production reste inférieur «d'environ 10 % au niveau antérieur à la crise sept ans après son déclenchement». L'organisation internationale avance comme raisons principales une baisse de la productivité dans un premier temps de la crise, puis un affaiblissement de l'investissement et du niveau d'emploi global. «L'activité réelle dans les économies développées a peu de chances de rebondir vers sa tendance d'avant-crise» poursuit le FMI, précisant cependant que les pertes de production ne sont pas inévitables et qu'elles sont moindres dans les pays disposant de mesures de relance à court terme.

Plus de pouvoir pour les banques centrales

Revenant sur certaines des causes de la crise actuelle, le FMI estime que la politique monétaire n'est pas directement responsable. «Dans quelques pays, elle (la politique monétaire) a été laxiste durant les années qui l'ont précédée, mais il est improbable qu'elle ait été la principale cause systématique des expansions et des récessions consécutives dans l'ensemble de l'économie mondiale» avance le FMI, qui estime que les différences entre les politiques monétaires nationales ne sont pas bien corrélées aux écarts entre la croissance des prix immobiliers et boursiers. Cependant, les responsables des politiques monétaires ne sont pas exempts de tout reproches car ils auraient pu détecter des «signaux d'alerte», les banques centrales ayant accepté sans broncher l'assouplissement des conditions de financement, créant le risque d'une grave récession. Afin que ces erreurs ne se reproduisent pas, le FMI prône pour l'instauration d'instruments «macroprudentiels» au sein des banques centrales, conçus «pour atténuer les cycles du marché du crédit».

VENEZUELA: BCV BAJA TASA INTERES

PERU:PBI de abril CERO

MEF: El PBI de abril no reportará crecimiento

15:58El Producto Bruto Interno de ese mes habría sido cercano a cero por ciento, pronosticó el Ministerio de Economía.

El ministro de Economía y Finanzas, Luis Carranza, afirmó que la economía peruana no reportará crecimiento en abril debido a los feriados de Semana Santa y por un efecto estadístico, ya que en el mismo mes del año pasado el Producto Bruto Interno (PBI) creció 14%, su tasa más alta.

“Por eso esperamos que el PBI en abril sea cercano a cero o negativo”, manifestó Carranza en declaraciones que reproduce la agencia Andina.

En febrero de este año el PBI alcanzó un desempeño de 0.19%, el nivel más bajo de los últimos seis años, mientras que en marzo se registró un crecimiento de 3.05%, con lo que se acumuló un avance de 2.02% en el primer trimestre del año.

Carranza indicó que para el segundo trimestre del 2009 también se espera un bajo crecimiento de la economía peruana, pero habrá mejoras en el segundo semestre.

Además, descartó que el bloqueo de carreteras y la paralización de algunas operaciones petroleras en la selva amazónica afecten el desempeño económico de los meses de mayo y junio.

“Habrá un impacto temporal, en la manufactura primaria, pero será marginal en la tasa de crecimiento”, aseguró.

Perú espera alcanzar un crecimiento de 3.5% este año, el mayor nivel de la región. Sin embargo, el ministro dijo que en el largo plazo Perú espera mantener un crecimiento de tres puntos porcentuales por encima del promedio del desempeño económico mundial.

“Es decir, si el mundo crece a niveles de 3%, Perú espera alcanzar tasas de seis y siete por ciento como tendencia, robarle tres puntos al mundo”, comentó.

Además, prevé que en el largo plazo el nuevo sol se verá fortalecido ya que, en la medida que las economías crecen, esta situación se ve reflejada en sus monedas, tal como sucedió con la República de Corea y Japón, y Chile en los años noventa.

“Si la economía de un país es más rica las monedas tienden a apreciarse respecto a resto de países, por ello creemos que el sol va a ser una moneda fuerte en el largo plazo”, afirmó.

Finalmente, Carranza estimó que el tipo de cambio continuará volátil en lo que resta del año.

PERU:Modelo Economía Abierta con Inventarios

Estimados Amigos, He extendido el modelo de Inventarios de Dancourt a una economía abierta, ya puede ayudarnos a extnder la dinámica de las importaciones. Uso para la ilustración una versión del modelo de Taylor; como recoradran , en él, todas las importaciones etsan compuestas por insumos de modo que la ecuación (1) nos indica cómo se determina el ingreso en el sector interno de la economía. La ecuación (2) gobierna el ajuste de la producción en el tiempo ; en los inventarios cumplen la función de amortiguar las fluctuaciones en la demanda. La ecuación (3) expresa los determinantes de las importaciones, consumo intermedio y la acumulación de stock de insumos importados. En la ecuación (4) indicamos que factores gobiernan la acumulación de stock de productos importados; mientras que la ecuación (5) que he tomado prestada de un modelo din{amico de insumo producto indica cómo se deeterminan los inventarios deseados. Finalmente, la ecuación (6) define los componentes del producto bruto interno. Si la paralización crediticia del IV trimestre redujo el stock deseado de inventarios, shock que podemos simular en el modelo mediante una reducción de B, la desinversión en ineventarios provocaría una reducción en M, sin afectar el pbi. ¿Puede un modelo cómo este explicar los fenómenos que nos muestran las estadísticas? Quizás, nótese que si el descenso en B, es un fenómeno transitorio, pueden emergen en el futuro dos fuerzas contrapuestas podrían determinar la dinámica de las importaciones. Ecuaciones del Modelo Q= C+I+∆N+X ∆Q=(1/T)(C+I+ X-Q) M= a0Q+ ∆No ∆No=(1/n)(N** -N) N**= τa0Q+B Y= C+I+∆N+∆No+X-M Símbolos Q= Producción C= Consumo I= Inversión Bruta Fija ∆N= Stock de Bienes Nacionales X= Exportaciones M= Importaciones ∆No= Stock de Bienes Importados N**= Stock Deseado de Inventarios

__._,_.___

Fwd: Macroperu Modelo Economía Abierta con Inventarios

Estimados Amigos,
He extendido el modelo de Inventarios de Dancourt a una economía abierta, ya puede ayudarnos a extnder la dinámica de las importaciones. Uso para la ilustración una versión del modelo de Taylor; como recoradran , en él, todas las importaciones etsan compuestas por insumos de modo que la ecuación (1) nos indica cómo se determina el ingreso en el sector interno de la economía. La ecuación (2) gobierna el ajuste de la producción en el tiempo ; en los inventarios cumplen la función de amortiguar las fluctuaciones en la demanda. La ecuación (3) expresa los determinantes de las importaciones, consumo intermedio y la acumulación de stock de insumos importados. En la ecuación (4) indicamos que factores gobiernan la acumulación de stock de productos importados; mientras que la ecuación (5) que he tomado prestada de un modelo din{amico de insumo producto indica cómo se deeterminan los inventarios deseados. Finalmente, la ecuación (6) define los componentes del producto bruto interno.

Si la paralización crediticia del IV trimestre redujo el stock deseado de inventarios, shock que podemos simular en el modelo mediante una reducción de B, la desinversión en ineventarios provocaría una reducción en M, sin afectar el pbi. ¿Puede un modelo cómo este explicar los fenómenos que nos muestran las estadísticas? Quizás, nótese que si el descenso en B, es un fenómeno transitorio, pueden emergen en el futuro dos fuerzas contrapuestas podrían determinar la dinámica de las importaciones.

Ecuaciones del Modelo

1. Q= C+I+∆N+X

2. ∆Q=(1/T)(C+I+X-Q)

3. M= a0Q+ ∆No

4. ∆No=(1/n)(N**-N)

5. N**= τa0Q+B

6. Y= C+I+∆N+∆No+X-M

Símbolos

• Q= Producción

• C= Consumo

• I= Inversión Bruta Fija

• ∆N= Stock de Bienes Nacionales

• X= Exportaciones

• M= Importaciones

• ∆No= Stock de Bienes Importados

• N**= Stock Deseado de Inventarios

__._,_.___

CHINA: YUAN&DOLLAR

China Seeks to Dethrone the Dollar, Transforming the Yuan into the Dominant Global Currency

By Keith Fitz-Gerald
Investment Director
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

China has taken yet another step to transform the yuan into the dominant global currency, a long-term initiative that could ultimately dethrone the dollar as the world’s top unit of exchange.

In the last four months alone, China has signed currency swap agreements worth more than $95 billion (650 billion yuan) with an array of nations - including: Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Belarus and Hong Kong - that are only too glad to move away from the increasingly shaky U.S. dollar.

For Westerners who are struggling to come to terms with the notion of a disarrayed dollar, the thought of oil, gold or other commodities being priced in yuan instead of dollars has to seem about as likely as having another country put a man on the moon.

But the Chinese yuan is already well on its way to becoming that globally accepted standard unit of exchange and the proverbial genie, as they say, is out of the bottle. In fact, I’d even go so far as to say the dollar’s days of dominance are numbered and with each new round of bailout chicanery, the clock is winding down ever faster.

Asia’s Long-Term View

In such Asian markets as Japan, Hong Kong and Mainland China, the long-term planning that’s an anathema to Corporate America is actually standard fare. During the height of Japan’s dominance in the 1980s, the Western business press - with a touch of derision - wrote about how some Japanese companies routinely formulated business plans with durations of 100 years or more (while working in Asia early in my career, I actually even contributed to several such plans … but that’s another story for another time).

That’s neither here nor there to most people who note smugly that Japan is getting its comeuppance. But what they don’t understand is that Japan is not alone. In fact, many people I talk with are shocked to learn that at a time when the West is still busy handing out Band-Aids in an attempt to deal with the greatest financial crisis on record, China has been quietly and shrewdly reinventing itself with the same kind of long-term vision.

Take commodities, for example. While companies in the United States, Great Britain and Europe are being forced to shed promising assets in order to compensate for massive losses or to pay down debt, cash-rich China has been able to operate as a buyer in a buyer’s market. While the rest of the world has interpreted this as a sign that China’s interested in buying the things it needs to grow, what they have not understood is that China’s also interested in using physical assets as a source of “currency” that offsets an increasingly eviscerated U.S. dollar.

This is actually a double-whammy of sorts, for while the rest of the world has been grappling with the global slowdown, China has been locking up supplies of commodities that are only going to become more scarce (and more valuable) as global demand escalates.

In fact, as I’ve suggested for months, now, China isn’t just going to consume those assets; it’s going to use them as part of the same long-term vision it’s been staking out with regard to its own currency, the yuan, which it fully intends to boost in status to the point where it becomes an internationally accepted currency.

The Once-Dominant Dollar

That’s quite a turn of events.

Even now, despite the travails of the U.S. economy, the dollar remains the world’s most widely held reserve currency and, as such, is the standard unit of exchange in most international transactions. In fact, many non-U.S. firms (such as Airbus SAS) actually price their manufactured products in dollars. And the dollar is the de facto unit of pricing for such commodities as oil (hence the term “petrodollar“). Several countries even use it as their “official” currency.
But the global financial crisis is threatening that dominance.

he United States has already “injected” into the world economy trillions of dollars that are collectively worth more than 60% of this country’s entire gross domestic product (GDP). And the prospect of still more injections for California, GMAC LLC and other “national” interests is extremely worrisome - and not just to millions of Americans, either. If Washington stays on this path, the result will be a currency crisis the likes of which few are capable of imagining and a near-complete devaluation of the once-almighty U.S. dollar.

Ironically, both events will only further embolden China, speeding up its efforts to boost the yuan’s international acceptance.

The “New” Yuan

While some experts may question Beijing’s motives, it’s hard to question China’s long-term strategic vision, since the country is actually being forced to take these steps that ensure its own survival. Unfortunately, our leaders in Washington don’t seem to understand this, so they’re only making matters worse - when they instead could be actively working with China and the world community on this instead of summarily ignoring the fact that the yuan may well be the world’s next reserve currency.

At the very least, China’s currency is likely to be granted a global status on par with the current major currency trading pairs for purposes of settling international transactions, whether the West wants that to happen or not.

I’ve outlined this scenario many times in recent years and, quite frankly, too often received blank stares in return. Most folks here in the West just aren’t prepared to deal with the idea that the U.S. dollar could be finished and that another currency could replace it after more than 60 years of global dominance. But they better get used to the idea - and in a hurry.

China is acutely aware that not having international currency convertibility hampers both its development and - thanks to the ongoing financial crisis - its potential survival. Not only has China been forced to accept huge reserves built upon previous trade growth (its $2 trillion in reserves is an all-time record), but its own policies have contributed to its relative inability to flex its capital-market muscles. That’s especially true in transactions involving U.S. dollar/yuan exchange rates.

What for us sounds quite theoretical in nature represents a very real problem for businessmen such as Dong Xianbin, the chairman of the Guangxi Sanhuan Enterprise Group Holding Co. Ltd. He estimates that he’s lost more than 150 million yuan (about $22 million at current exchange rates) on international trade in the past three years alone because of exchange rate changes between the dollar and the yuan. So he’s keen to see yuan-based transactions that will reduce exchange-rate risks, or eliminate them entirely. And he’s not alone. Thousands of Chinese companies are chomping at the bit for the same reasons.

As a nation, not having a universally accepted currency is a huge issue. China’s record reserves are now at risk thanks to the U.S. government’s bailout boondoggle, because each new greenback printed debases the value of every other dollar out there, including the ones China holds.

Historically, Beijing sought to mitigate that risk by diversifying its holdings into other currencies most notably the European euro and the Swiss franc, for instance. But now China’s facing the kinds of problems that massive mutual funds closer to home must deal with when they hold a disproportionately large amount of money: China’s reserve fund is so massive that there’s literally no other single currency that can absorb all that liquidity. So even if China wanted to diversify more aggressively, it’s going to be hard pressed to do so.

Incidentally, this is precisely why China’s so-called “nuclear option” will never become more than a theory bandied about by conspiracy buffs. Under such a scenario, China will either “dump” its dollars, and/or stop buying them, causing the value of the greenback to plummet. China might start selling, but there literally is not another currency on the planet that could absorb a wholesale liquidation.

Therefore, the reality is that China needs to have the U.S. boost the value of the dollar - even as the United States needs to have China do all it can to maintain the dollar’s value.

Shopping for Commodities

At this point in time, China essentially has two alternatives:

• It can seek out other stores of value, such as natural resources, which are highly liquid and reasonably “deep” in global markets, but which can also be very volatile from a pricing standpoint.
• Or it can elevate the credibility of its own currency in the international financial markets and effectively remove the exchange rate risks associated with its own partially blocked yuan.

Never one to leave anything to chance, China is pursuing both strategies. For instance, China’s been buying gold like there’s no tomorrow - and is looking to add to its holdings. Since 2003, China has boosted its holdings of gold by 73% to an estimated 1,054 metric tons, with an approximate value of $31.3 billion. This makes China the fifth-largest holder of gold on the planet, followed by the United States, Greater Europe, and Switzerland.

China’s also gone global in its hunt for oil - which, of course, is the only other global “currency” truly in international demand.

While there’s a real benefit to having locked up supplies of commodities, they aren’t an ideal store of value. And that suggests that what China really needs to do is elevate the global prominence of its own currency at the same time, whether U.S. leaders aid the process or not.

History shows that strong economies tend to have strong currencies. And the actions that I’ve reported on recently from China - the cross-Straits agreements reached between China and Taiwan, the Hong Kong yuan-trade agreements and the “yuan carry trade,” to name a few - only reinforce the effort China is putting forth to achieve this goal.

Speaking of goals … there are obviously plenty of Doubting Thomases on this issue - but they were around years ago before China announced that it wants to put a man on the moon by 2020.

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