balanza comercial USA-PERU y algunas conclusiones

From: Angel Marces 
Date: 2010/6/24

 

De las 135 partidas de importaciones peruanas que registra la oficina de censos de US, tenemos que las 15 mas importantes en valor en los ultimos 5 años, en promedio hacen el 90% en valor de las importaciones de cada año. Para definir "importancia" he sumado los valores de cada partida en los ultimos 5 años y he rankeado la suma (lo que permite incluir cualquier partida grande que hubiera caido considerablemente o cualquiera pequeña que se hubiese disparado) Valores en millones de USD

US Imports from Peru
End-Use Code	Value 2005	Value 2006	Value 2007	Value 2008	Value 2009
(14270) Nonmonetary gold	1,555,783	1,408,518	438,669	294,254	640,961
(14220) Copper	556,825	1,006,056	980,458	852,324	537,157
(40000) Apparel and household goods-cotton	751,631	789,249	750,451	723,905	539,104
(10020) Other petroleum products	463,775	452,789	447,184	605,866	274,055
(14280) Other precious metals	183,611	226,695	437,249	619,570	166,806
(00130) Vegetables and preparations	221,463	278,633	329,204	381,137	381,739
(14250) Tin	150,328	197,578	262,168	366,047	266,107
(10010) Fuel oil	224,316	298,931	278,889	289,585	38,082
(10000) Crude	88,035	77,571	158,925	357,943	310,103
(00000) Green coffee	78,828	120,085	137,060	168,846	161,893
(14260) Zinc	86,298	125,572	132,924	105,124	121,194
(00120) Fruits and preparations, including frozen juices	50,018	68,085	75,360	105,680	103,300
(01000) Fish and shellfish	64,810	60,717	79,964	89,371	104,909
(41310) Jewelry (watches, rings, etc.)	86,753	84,112	76,481	61,935	41,087
(15200) Finished metal shapes & advncd manuf, except steel	37,703	54,303	83,968	90,363	36,478

Las variaciones interanuales de estos 15 principales productos son las siguientes:

US Imports from Peru
End-Use Code	crec yoy 06	crec yoy 07	crec yoy 08	crec yoy 09
(14270) Nonmonetary gold	-9.47%	-68.86%	-32.92%	117.83%
(14220) Copper	80.68%	-2.54%	-13.07%	-36.98%
(40000) Apparel and household goods-cotton	5.00%	-4.92%	-3.54%	-25.53%
(10020) Other petroleum products	-2.37%	-1.24%	35.48%	-54.77%
(14280) Other precious metals	23.46%	92.88%	41.70%	-73.08%
(00130) Vegetables and preparations	25.81%	18.15%	15.78%	0.16%
(14250) Tin	31.43%	32.69%	39.62%	-27.30%
(10010) Fuel oil	33.26%	-6.70%	3.84%	-86.85%
(10000) Crude	-11.89%	104.88%	125.23%	-13.37%
(00000) Green coffee	52.34%	14.14%	23.19%	-4.12%
(14260) Zinc	45.51%	5.85%	-20.91%	15.29%
(00120) Fruits and preparations, including frozen juices	36.12%	10.69%	40.23%	-2.25%
(01000) Fish and shellfish	-6.32%	31.70%	11.76%	17.39%
(41310) Jewelry (watches, rings, etc.)	-3.04%	-9.07%	-19.02%	-33.66%
(15200) Finished metal shapes & advncd manuf, except steel	44.03%	54.63%	7.62%	-59.63%

De las 132 partidas de exportaciones de USA a Peru, las 15 mas importantes hacen en promedio el 59% de las exportaciones anuales, mientras que las 30 primeras no llegan al 80% de las exportaciones anuales. Esto solo refleja la mayor diversificacion de la economia USA. Vean tambien la menor concentracion de valor por partida respecto de las importaciones peruanas. Otro dato: todos son productos industriales (excepto algunas computadoras y accesorios)

US Exports to Peru
End-Use Code	Value 2005	Value 2006	Value 2007	Value 2008	Value 2009
(11110) Fuel oil	192,978	198,955	419,744	1,067,209	336,522
(12500) Plastic materials	140,190	164,719	376,899	451,140	304,830
(21030) Excavating machinery	94,184	159,225	227,259	359,425	243,580
(21301) Computer accessories	140,197	154,790	125,538	208,341	259,175
(21100) Industrial engines	77,338	94,276	121,028	172,230	242,903
(21180) Industrial machines, other	79,373	114,970	138,576	213,671	152,762
(12540) Chemicals-organic	94,625	110,115	149,402	167,568	160,285
(21300) Computers	48,294	84,371	130,482	200,678	176,041
(21170) Materials handling equipment	94,373	129,106	100,763	128,006	139,775
(11120) Petroleum products, other	48,582	97,852	108,311	147,662	180,805
(21400) Telecommunications equipment	65,566	76,150	102,610	170,376	152,875
(21000) Drilling & oilfield equipment	45,665	77,923	117,609	178,237	140,468
(60000) Minimum value shipments	55,677	71,726	99,603	157,191	119,193
(41050) Other household goods	69,303	149,338	95,709	107,045	77,652
(00000) Wheat	78,355	18,633	160,971	127,409	81,585

Las variaciones interanuales de estos productos son:

US Exports to Peru
End-Use Code	crec yoy 06	crec yoy 07	crec yoy 08	crec yoy 09
(11110) Fuel oil	3.10%	110.97%	154.25%	-68.47%
(12500) Plastic materials	17.50%	128.81%	19.70%	-32.43%
(21030) Excavating machinery	69.06%	42.73%	58.16%	-32.23%
(21301) Computer accessories	10.41%	-18.90%	65.96%	24.40%
(21100) Industrial engines	21.90%	28.38%	42.31%	41.03%
(21180) Industrial machines, other	44.85%	20.53%	54.19%	-28.51%
(12540) Chemicals-organic	16.37%	35.68%	12.16%	-4.35%
(21300) Computers	74.70%	54.65%	53.80%	-12.28%
(21170) Materials handling equipment	36.80%	-21.95%	27.04%	9.19%
(11120) Petroleum products, other	101.42%	10.69%	36.33%	22.45%
(21400) Telecommunications equipment	16.14%	34.75%	66.04%	-10.27%
(21000) Drilling & oilfield equipment	70.64%	50.93%	51.55%	-21.19%
(60000) Minimum value shipments	28.83%	38.87%	57.82%	-24.17%
(41050) Other household goods	115.49%	-35.91%	11.84%	-27.46%
(00000) Wheat	-76.22%	763.90%	-20.85%	-35.97%

Hay varias conclusiones que se pueden sacar de estos datos. Las mas interesantes son:

- Las importaciones peruanas en USA estan concentradas en productos tradicionales. La reduccion de las tasas de crecimiento de estas importaciones es en gran medida un reflejo de la progresiva devaluacion del dolar respecto del sol durante este quinquenio (de hecho durante casi toda la ultima decada) y, en los ultimos dos años, de la violenta contraccion economica de US. Como mencione en el correo anterior, el TLC con USA entro en vigencia hace 16 meses, asi que el efecto, si existe, es marginal. Si el dolar se sigue devaluando respecto del sol y la recuperacion de USA es lenta y fragil, deberiamos esperar que continue la caida en las tasas de crecimiento de las importaciones.

- El crecimiento de las exportaciones de USA a Peru es casi en su totalidad de productos industriales. Esto es consecuencia de mayor nivel de inversion privada y publica en el Peru. Es posible que la progresiva devaluacion del dolar respecto del sol durante este quinquenio haya hecho mas barato importar equipos desde USA que desde otros paises. La contraccion de las exportaciones en 2009 en estos productos es tan pareja que sospecho que refleja la desaceleracion de la actividad economica en Peru. Esta contraccion deberia revertirse en 2010, es decir, las exportaciones de USA a Peru deberian seguir creciendo.

- Estas dos situaciones convergen y se expresan en el superavit comercial que USA tiene con Peru. Sin embargo esto no ocurre en muchos otros paises, ya que el segundo factor esta ausente en muchas economias (estuvieron/estan aun en recesion)

- Por los montos y tipos de partidas que se exportan de USA a Peru, dudo que Peru como bloque sea una parte considerable de los ingresos de las empresas exportadoras de USA. Esto lleva a pensar que estas empresas priorizaran otros mercados y que el enfasis en Peru como mercado de exportacion es secundario (spillover effect). Mas bien para las empresas peruanas si hay mucho interes por aprovechar la mayor competitividad de los productos industriales de USA y seguir importando bienes de capital.

- Los efectos de cambios estructurales como los TLC, que se dan en el largo plazo, se deben analizar mas alla de los niveles de comercio, como por ejemplo a traves de la diversificacion de las importaciones de Peru en los paises con los que se firma estos TLC. Lo importante no es que los flujos sean voluminosos y concentrados desde el inicio, sino que sean numerosos y diversos para que motiven a los empresarios nacionales a arriesgarse. Tambien es preciso recordar que este tipo de cambios institucionales coexisten con factores adversos como los mencionados arriba, lo que dificulta determinar su impacto real. 

PINE: nuevo indicador para INEI y BCR ¿lo conocerán?,Alarco

PINE 

"El PINE se obtiene como la diferencia entre el Producto nacional neto menos los costos por agotamiento de los recursos naturales y los costos por degradación del medio ambiente. Los costos por agotamiento expresan la pérdida de recursos en la medida en que la incorporación de nuevas reservas es inferior al ritmo de extracción. Los costos por degradación son las estimaciones monetarias para restaurar el medio ambiente."

Bienestar, producto y medio ambiente

Germán Alarco Tosoni
Investigador principal CENTRUM Católica

La tasa de crecimiento del producto bruto interno (PBI) se ha convertido en el criterio fundamental de autoevaluación del desempeño en el actual gobierno y hasta, erróneamente, como elemento de juicio para validar el modelo económico. El PBI es un indicador relevante y útil para medir el nivel de actividad económica, llevar a cabo comparaciones entre diferentes economías y a través del tiempo. Sin embargo, omite la distinción entre los ingresos generados por residentes y no residentes en el país, no es un reflejo exacto de la calidad de vida, elude toda la problemática distributiva y tiene una perspectiva exclusiva en el corto plazo. A nivel internacional hay otros referentes sobre la mesa, tales como los indicadores de desarrollo humano (IDH) y el producto interno neto ecológico (PINE).

PBI como indicador relativo

El PBI mide el nivel de actividad económica para un espacio geográfico determinado, a diferencia del Producto nacional bruto (PNB) que lo establece para los residentes en el país. Esto que parece una trivialidad, no lo es en la práctica para el caso peruano. El PNB deduce del PBI las utilidades de las empresas transnacionales propiedad de extranjeros menos las remesas recibidas del exterior. En 2008 y 2009 estas utilidades fueron US$ 8,346 y 7,064 millones respectivamente. En el primer trimestre del 2010 ascendieron a US$ 2,258 millones, equivalentes a casi el 6% del PBI.

Este es un agregado de la contabilidad nacional que suma los ingresos por remuneraciones, de los independientes de la ciudad y del campo y de los perceptores de utilidades de empresas, rentas, alquileres, intereses netos y otras cuentas. Sin embargo, no permite diferenciar entre quienes son los mayores o menores beneficiarios en tiempos de crecimiento o crisis. Por otra parte, lamentablemente, desde que el INEI elabora estas cuentas, no se puede distinguir entre los ingresos de los independientes y las utilidades de las empresas, ya que todo se agrega en el denominado excedente de explotación.

Una mayor diferencia entre las tasas de interés activas y pasivas es una contribución contable directa al PBI, pero en realidad es negativa para el aparato productivo. La construcción de viviendas más caras frente a ingresos de la población creciendo menos no es una buena fórmula para el bienestar. Mayores gastos en seguridad privada, ante la insuficiencia de la prestada por el gobierno, genera más valor agregado por las remuneraciones, pero implican un sobrecosto para las empresas. El contar con grupos electrógenos evita caídas en la producción, pero a un costo superior de la energía proporcionada a través de la red eléctrica.

Más ventas de vehículos incrementa el producto, pero esta contribución positiva puede ser neutralizada por las externalidades negativas (afectaciones) generadas por la congestión. Esta provoca mayores consumos de combustibles, emisiones de CO2 más altas, más accidentes y menor posibilidad de crear riqueza. No nos hemos referido ahora a la metodología para estimar el PBI peruano, pero subsisten algunos problemas. Tampoco a la ilusión monetaria que se produce cuando medimos el PBI en dólares corrientes, en circunstancias en que se aprecia nuestra moneda.

IDH y el producto ecológico

Los IDH son una alternativa como medida de la calidad de vida. Son elaborados por el Programa de Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo (PNUD) y constituyen una medida simplificada del desarrollo humano. Evalúan el progreso medio conseguido por el país en tres dimensiones básicas. La primera relativa a disfrutar de una vida larga y saludable evaluada a través de la esperanza de vida al nacer. El segundo, disponer de educación a través de la tasa de alfabetización y la tasa bruta de matriculación en primaria, secundaria y terciaria. En tercer lugar, contar con un nivel de vida digno medido a través del PBI per cápita en términos de poder adquisitivo en dólares americanos.

El producto neto ecológico toma en cuenta el desgaste de los activos totales de la economía. Aquí se consideran los económicos tradicionales derivados de la actividad productiva (activos de las empresas), los activos no producidos como las reservas de recursos naturales (mineros, hidrocarburos y otros) y los ambientales correspondientes al aire, agua y suelo. El PINE se obtiene como la diferencia entre el Producto nacional neto menos los costos por agotamiento de los recursos naturales y los costos por degradación del medio ambiente. Los costos por agotamiento expresan la pérdida de recursos en la medida en que la incorporación de nuevas reservas es inferior al ritmo de extracción. Los costos por degradación son las estimaciones monetarias para restaurar el medio ambiente.

Reflexiones finales

El gobierno no tiene que ufanarse demasiado con relación a los resultados del PBI. Su calificación es mediocre, tanto cuando se habla de los otros indicadores para medir el desarrollo humano, como cuando se comenta del producto interno neto ecológico. Las externalidades negativas generadas por el "progreso" están a la vista de todos. La despreocupación por el mediano y largo plazo es objetiva cuando se aceleran los ritmos de extracción y de exportación de los hidrocarburos (especialmente del gas natural) y de los productos mineros en general por encima de las cifras relativas a la incorporación de nuevas reservas. Un mismo nivel de producción a mayores precios, más producción que genera muchas externalidades negativas y más extracción de recursos naturales que reducen el acervo neto de activos no renovables no son la fórmula perfecta para todos los peruanos de ahora y del mañana.

._,_.___

Ajuste a la Inglesa

Las medidas buscan reducir el déficit, que ascendería a US$ 215 mil millones en 2015:
Inglaterra anuncia segundo plan de austeridad con impuesto a la banca

El gobierno inglés también elevará el IVA y el impuesto a la ganancia de capitales, pero mermará el gravamen a las empresas. A esto se suma un congelamiento en los beneficios sociales.

Gabriela Villalobos S.

Hace sólo algunas semanas el antiguo gobierno inglés, encabezado por Gordon Brown, anunció un plan de austeridad que buscaba ahorrar US$ 107 mil millones hasta 2015.

Pero ayer, la nueva administración -liderada por el conservador David Cameron- dio a conocer medidas adicionales para ahorrar US$ 60 mil millones más en ese período.

Así, el plan de austeridad en su conjunto se convierte en el más severo de los últimos 25 años y reducir el déficit de este país que podría alcanzar los US$ 215 mil millones en 2015.

"(La prioridad) ha sido asegurarnos que las medidas son justas (...), así los más ricos pagarán más que los pobres", dijo el ministro de Hacienda inglés, George Osborne. En su presentación redujo sus estimaciones de crecimiento para este año de 1,3% a 1,2% y para 2011, de 2,6% a 2,3%.

Una de las medidas más polémicas del plan es un impuesto al sector bancario, que busca recaudar US$ 3 mil millones anuales. "Esta fue una crisis que partió en el sector bancario, y el fracaso de las financieras ha significado un costo tremendo para el resto de la sociedad", argumentó Osborne, quien no entregó detalles acerca de esta medida.

Además, se congelarán los salarios de los empleados públicos y los subsidios por hijo, y se reducirá el presupuesto en algunas reparticiones del gobierno. También habrá ajustes tributarios: el IVA se elevará de 17,5% a 20%, pero el impuesto a la ganancia de las empresas se reducirá en un punto porcentual en los próximos cuatro años, hasta llegar al 24%. Al contrario, se elevará el impuesto a la ganancia de capital de 18% a 28%, a los contribuyentes con mayores ingresos.

Según aseguraron en el mercado local, la medida no provocará una salida de grandes flujos de capital desde Inglaterra. "No es tan fácil traspasar capital de un lado a otro. Si lo sacas de ahí, no lo vas a dejar en caja. Y el alza no amerita una decisión de sacar los dineros", comentó Juan Pablo Morales, de WAC Research.

"Los inversionistas están buscando mercados con una situación fiscal más estable, y este plan es una señal de eso", agregó Sebastián Cerda, de CorpResearch.

OBJETIVO

El impuesto a los bancos ingleses recaudaría US$ 3 mil millones anuales.

Bolsas sufren pérdidas

Los planes de austeridad fiscal anunciados ayer en Inglaterra y Japón (que también confirmó alzas de impuestos) aumentaron el temor de que una restricción del gasto público desacelere a la economía global.

El Dow Jones cayó 1,43%, su mayor baja en tres semanas, mientras que en Europa el Ibex retrocedió 0,55%. En Londres, en tanto, el FTSE 100 perdió 0,98%.

Chile tampoco se salvó: el IPSA retrocedió 0,95%, pero en reacción a la noticia del cambio monetario en China, pues se prevé que la apreciación del yuan encarezca los costos para el retail local.

El dólar se fortaleció a nivel global. En Chile subió $1,80, a $532,50.

BNP Paribas Investment Partners: la crisis del euro ha producido oportunidades atractivas en el mercado

Hace 18 meses, BNP Paribas hizo su ingreso oficial al país a través de una alianza con BancoEstado. El mayor banco francés (en cuanto a activos) compró a fines de 2008 el 49% de BancoEstado AGF. Esto fue lo que trajo de visita de Philippe Marchessaux, CEO de BNP Paribas Investment Partners, quien en conversación con "El Mercurio" aseguró que el mercado ofrece hoy atractivas oportunidades de inversión.

-¿Están explorando nuevos negocios en Chile?

"Primero queremos desarrollar nuestra asociación con BancoEstado. Hay mucho espacio para desarrollar el negocio. Estamos desarrollando nuevos productos, aprovechando la experiencia de BancoEstado y de BNP Paribas. En ese contexto, vamos a lanzar un nuevo producto, que se llamará fondo bicentenario".

-Con la crisis del euro, ¿han cambiado las preferencias de los inversionistas chilenos de Fondos Mutuos?

"No veo un cambio grande en esta etapa, porque los clientes chilenos invierten en general en Money Markets, que son activos de bajo riesgo. Por lo tanto, las consecuencias de la crisis del euro están lejos para ellos".

-¿Es diferente en Europa?

"No, porque en Europa entre los clientes no se veía un gran apetito por riesgo, porque acababan de experimentar otra crisis. Sin embargo, es justamente en las crisis donde se generan buenas oportunidades para entrar al mercado. Pero hay temores por la alta incertidumbre y la volatilidad, por eso están esperando".

-¿Es mejor esperar a que baje la volatilidad?

"Lo que siempre recomiendo es no poner todo en activos riesgosos en este momento. Estamos en una crisis, los mercados están bajos, así que hay que invertir. Depende del inversionista, pero si eres muy adverso al riesgo, hay que hacerlo. Lo que recomiendo es si el inversionista quiere tener una cierta exposición al mercado accionario, es ir de a poco. Al principio sólo invertir un tercio de lo que se está dispuesto a apostar en accionarios, y meses después analizar la situación e invertir otro tercio, y así".

"Mi estilo antes era comprar cuando nadie quería entrar al mercado. El riesgo es exponerse en un momento muy temprano, cuando todavía hay espacio de mayores pérdidas en los mercados".

-¿Dónde ve oportunidades?

"Los mercados emergentes se ven atractivos en este minuto. La Zona Euro está muy dañada actualmente, por eso la subponderamos. Al contrario, estamos sobreponderando Estados Unidos, donde la recuperación es más fuerte, y Asia Pacífico y América Latina. Recomendamos renta fija, en particular la deuda corporativa high yield (de alto rendimiento), porque la deuda soberana enfrenta desafíos en Europa. Por eso, en este minuto, la deuda corporativa parece menos riesgosa".

"En Asia Pacífico estamos invirtiendo en Corea, y en América Latina nos gustan Brasil y Chile".

-¿La elevada deuda de la

Zona Euro será el tema principal para los mercados en los próximos años?

"Será uno de los temas centrales. Los mercados están sensibles y sobreexageran, pero enviaron un mensaje cierto y potente a los gobiernos de la región, pidiéndoles que controlaran su deuda. Pero no creo que el Euro explote".

UE: ATAQUE CONTRA EL EURO

http://www.eurointelligence.com/article.581+M5e9fd8450a5.0.html

La Crisis de la Deuda en Europa , seg{un el telegrafo

Greece acts to stop speculators as debt crisis escalates

Greece has moved to stem panic in the country and stop speculators taking advantage of its escalating debt crisis.

By Malcolm Moore in Shanghai
Published: 9:30AM BST 28 Apr 2010

A global market sell-off spread to Asia on Wednesday, sending the region's stocks lower amid fears the worsening European debt crisis will slow a global recovery. Japan's Nikkei index fell 2.5pc and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 1.2pc. Photo: AP

The troubled country triggered a sell-off in global markets after its debt was yesterday slashed to junk status, making it harder to pay down its deficit and raise money to fund its budget.

Fear of contagion from Greece was heightened by a cut in the credit rating of Portuguese government debt.

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This morning, the Greek regulator banned speculators from shorting the Athens market - trying to make money from betting shares will fall further - after widespread selling which saw London's FTSE 100 tumble 2.6pc, Germany's DAX 2.7pc, and France's CAC 3.7pc.

This spread to New York where the Dow Jones dropped 1.9pc before moving to Asia, where Japan's Nikei index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.5pc and 1.2pc respectively.

The sell-off continued in Europe in early trading after an uneasy halt as investor took stock as markets opened. Major markets in London, German and France were down around 1pc.

Southern European markets were hard hit, with Portugal tumbling 6pc and Spain 3pc.

Lorraine Tan, director of equities research at Standard & Poor's in Singapore, said "The fear is that Greece and Portugal are just the appetizers.

"The concern is it is going to spread and have an impact on the financial system and ultimately on the economy."

As a further indication of investor jitters, the premium being demanded to hold Greek government bonds jumped to its highest since late 1996.

ASIAN MARKETS, OIL FALLS

The worsening European debt crisis rattled Asia, as stock markets across the region fell and oil slid to near $82 a barrel.

Tokyo's Nikkei-225 index was down 287 points, or 2.5pc, by lunchtime at 10,924.75 points, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 260 points, or 1.24pc, to 20,998 points.

South Korea's Kospi index fell 1.2pc to 1,728.25 while the losses were more restrained in Shanghai, which dipped 2.32 points to 2906.

Concerns about Europe, which remains the largest market for Asian exports, increased after Standard & Poor's, the rating agency, downgraded Greece's debt to junk status and hit Portugal's rating with a two-notch cut.

The concerns about Europe overshadowed a strong set of earnings from Japanese companies, showing a fragile recovering is underway in Tokyo.

OIL TRADERS EYE EUROPEAN WOES

Meanwhile, US crude oil for June delivery fell 27 cents to USD82.17 a barrel, touching a $2 drop over its last two trading sessions.

Analysts said oil traders were taking note of a possible economic crisis in Europe and that the market had reacted to new inventory figures from the US, which showed that stockpiles were up 5.3m barrels in the week ending April 23.

"Market sentiment remains fragile and there is a possibility that if we have more adverse economic news we could see prices decline further," said David Moore, an analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, adding that US demand for oil was weak.

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La Tercera Fase de la Crisis Económica

¿Que puede ocurrir en el mundo si colapsa la Unión Monetaria?

Europe debt crisis spreads to Portugal

Greek debt drops to junk status, Portugal's also downgraded; markets slide on fears of crisis

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Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou speaks during a meeting of governing Socialist party deputies at the Greek Parliament on Tuesday, April 27, 2010. Greece must surprise markets by greater improvements to its troubled economy than it has already promised if it is to pull itself out of its severe financial crisis, Bank of Greece governor George Provopoulos said Tuesday. The government is implementing harsh austerity measures designed to trim the debt-ridden country's massive budget deficit, which stands at 13.6 percent of gross domestic product, and has called on a €45 billion joint eurozone and International Monetary Fund rescue package for aid. (AP Photo/Dimitri Messinis)

Nicholas Paphitis and Pan Pylas, Associated Press Writers, On Tuesday April 27, 2010, 5:27 pm EDT

ATHENS (AP) -- Ratings agency Standard & Poor's pushed Greece to the brink of a financial abyss Tuesday and downgraded Portugal's debt, too, fueling fears of a continent-wide debt meltdown in Europe.

Stocks around the world tanked when Greek bonds were lowered to junk status and investors saw that Greece's financial contagion was spreading to at least one other eurozone country.

Major European exchanges fell more than 2.5 percent, and on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average finished down more than 200 points. The euro slid more than 1 percent to nearly an eight-month low.

"We have the makings of a market crisis here," said Neil Mackinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital.

Greece is struggling with massive debt, and with prospects for economic growth weak it could end up in default. Its 15 eurozone partners and the International Monetary Fund have tried to calm the markets with a euro45 billion rescue package, but it hasn't worked.

Standard & Poor's warned that holders of Greek debt could take large losses in any restructuring, but a greater worry is that Greece's debt crisis is mushrooming to other debt-laden members of the eurozone.

One bailout can be dealt with but two will be stretching it, and there are fears that other weak economies could be pulled down in the Greek spiral -- including Europe's fifth-largest, Spain. Can Germany, Europe's effective paymaster, continue to bail out the weaker members of the eurozone?

The crisis threatens to undermine the euro and make it harder and more expensive for all eurozone governments to borrow money.

It has also disrupted cooperation between eurozone governments, with Germany resisting the idea of bailing out Greece unless strict conditions are met.

Many investors think Greece will have enough money to avoid default in the coming weeks, but the future is cloudier.

Both Standard & Poor's and the Greek finance ministry insisted that the country will have enough money to make the euro8.5 billion bond payments due on May 19.

Even if it does, Greece faces years of austerity with living standards sharply reduced. Standard & Poor's warned that the Greek economy was unlikely to be as big as it was in 2008 for another decade.

Junk status sinks Greece's hopes even deeper. Losing investment-grade status for its bonds means that Greece will have to pay higher costs to borrow if it taps debt markets again, and increases the chances that existing debt will have to be restructured.

"The latest developments mean that the chances of Greece solving this situation without restructuring its debts are now dim," said Diego Iscaro, senior economist at IHS Global Insight.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated her position that Greece should first conclude the current negotiations with the IMF and the European Union about austerity measures for the coming years before receiving the international loan package.

Speaking at an election rally Tuesday afternoon, Merkel said it is appropriate to tell Greeks, "You have to economize, you have to become fair, you have to be honest; if not, nobody can help you," according to the German news agency DAPD.

A government spokesman said Tuesday evening he could not tell if Merkel was at that point aware of the latest downgrade. He declined to be named in line with government policy.

The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares closed down 2.6 percent, Germany's DAX slid 2.7 percent and the French CAC-40 in France ended 3.8 percent lower.

Greek and Portuguese stocks were pounded -- down 6.7 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively -- while their market borrowing costs went through the roof. The interest rate for Greek two-year bonds jumped to a massive 18 percent.

The interest rate gap, or spread, between Portugese and benchmark German 10-year bonds rose about half a percentage point Tuesday to reach its highest point since the euro came into circulation. The higher the gap, the less confidence in Portugal; its bonds on Tuesday had an interest rate 5.86 percentage points higher than German bonds.

Both the Portugese and Greek governments have imposed budget cutbacks against political resistance from unions at home. Markets have been skeptical that they can push through enough cuts, given political resistance, to put their finances in order.

Both governments responded with alarm at the downgrades.

"This decision will not help markets to calm down, but will, on the contrary, contribute for their turbulence," Portugese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said.

Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said the downgrade "does not reflect the real state of our economy, nor the fiscal situation, nor the ongoing negotiations which have the very realistic propects that they will be completed successfully in the next few days."

Papaconstantinou said Greece will pull through.

"One wishes that Europe had acted a little differently. Three and four months ago we were saying that the mechanism must be ready and it must be detailed, that the markets must know what exactly is going. Unfortunately, for a series of political reasons, we are down to the wire," he said.

The crisis has highlighted the eurozone's inability to keep governments from undermining the euro by running up big debts. Rules that limit deficits to 3 percent of gross domestic product have been widely flouted, and EU officials are talking about ways to strengthen them.

AP Business Writer Pan Pylas contributed from London.

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Banco Central Europeo podría comprar bonos publicos de los paises europeos del s

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ECB may have to turn to 'nuclear option' to prevent Southern European debt collapse

The European Central Bank may soon have to invoke emergency powers to prevent the disintegration of southern European bond markets, with ominous signs of investor flight from Spain and Italy.

 

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published: 7:09PM BST 27 Apr 2010

Comments 93 | Comment on this article

Pigeons swirl in front of the National Bank of Greece headquarters' building in central Athens

Greece's fortunes were dealt yet another blow as Standard & Poor's slashed its credit rating to junk status - BB+ - the first time that has happened to a euro member since the single currency was created, pushing yields on 10-year Greek bonds up to a record 9.73pc.

The credit-rating agency also cut Portugal's sovereign debt ratings by two notches to A-, as the swirling storm hit the country with full-force.

 

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"We have gone past the point of no return," said Jacques Cailloux, chief Europe economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland."There is a complete loss of confidence. The bond markets are in disintegration and it is getting worse every day.

"The ECB has been side-lined in the Greek crisis so far but do you allow a bond crash in your region if you are the lender-of-last resort? They may have to act as contagion spreads to larger countries such as Italy. We started to see the first glimpse of that today."

Mr Cailloux said the ECB should resort to its "nuclear option" of intervening directly in the markets to purchase government bonds.

This is prohibited in normal times under the EU Treaties but the bank can buy a wide range of assets under its "structural operations" mandate in times of systemic crisis, theoretically in unlimited quantities.

Mr Cailloux added: "This feels like the banking crisis in late 2008 post-Lehman, though it has not yet spread to other asset classes. The ECB will have to act it if does."

Yields on 10-year Portuguese bonds spiked 48 basis points to 5.67pc, replicating the pattern seen as the Greek crisis started.

Portugal's public debt will be just 84pc of GDP by the end of this year, far lower than that of Greece, at 124pc. However, its private debt is much higher and data from the IMF shows that its external debt position is worse.

Interest payments on foreign debt will be 8pc of GDP this year. Portugal's net international investment position is minus 100pc of GDP, the worst in the eurozone.

The interest rate on a €9.5bn (£8.2bn) issue of Italian notes jumped to 0.814pc, up from 0.568pc in March. The bid-to-cover ratio was wafer-thin, falling to 1.02. Italy has the world's third biggest debt in absolute terms.

The issue of the ECB buying bonds is a political minefield. Any such action would inevitably be viewed in Germany as a form of printing money to bail out Club Med debtors, and the start of a slippery slope towards in an "inflation union".

But the ECB may no longer have any choice. There is a growing view that nothing short of a monetary blitz — or "shock and awe" on the bonds markets — can halt the spiral under way.

The markets are already looking beyond the €40bn to €45bn joint rescue for Greece by the IMF and the EU, questioning whether some form of debt restructuring or managed default can be avoided over the next year or two, or even whether the rescue plan can work at all in a country trapped in debt deflation with no way out through devaluation.

Professor Willem Buiter, a former member of Britain's Monetary Policy Committee and now global economist for Citigroup, said there may need to be a "voluntary restructuring" of debt.

"It is quite likely that a haircut of, say, 20pc to 25pc will be imposed on creditors as parts of the deal," he said.

The bond markets are already "pricing in" a default of some kind in Greece, where rates on 2-year debt spiked close to 15pc in panic trading yesterday. The European Commission and the International Monetary Fund both insist that restructuring is out of the question but investors have become cynical after months of EU rhetoric and foot-dragging by Berlin.

The ECB cannot lightly risk a second sovereign crisis erupting, with dangers of a spillover into Spain.

The exposure of Spanish-based banks to Portuguese debt exceeds $80bn, according to the Bank for International Settlements. There were early signs of strain in the Spanish banking system yesterday.

Banks were forced to pay a premium in the domestic "repo" market on fears of counterparty risk, although the Bank of Spain has so far won plaudits for ensuring that banks have large safety buffers.

It is unclear why the markets are becoming skittish over Italian bonds. Public debt is 115pc of GDP but this is offset by very low household debt.

Italian citizens are among the most frugal savers in the OECD club of rich states. Moreover, the government has weathered the financial crisis with a budget deficit in remarkable good health.

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Fwd: Macroperu Protegiendo el mercado

SEC accuses Goldman Sachs of defrauding investors

Goldman Sachs accused of fraud; SEC says it hid hedge fund's involvement in doomed securities

 

Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer, On Friday April 16, 2010, 6:18 pm

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government on Friday accused Wall Street's most powerful firm of fraud, saying Goldman Sachs & Co. sold mortgage investments without telling the buyers that the securities were crafted with input from a client who was betting on them to fail.

And fail they did. The securities cost investors close to $1 billion while helping Goldman client Paulson & Co. capitalize on the housing bust. The Goldman executive accused of shepherding the deal allegedly boasted about the "exotic trades" he created "without necessarily understanding all of the implications of those monstrosities!!!"

The civil charges filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission are the government's most significant legal action related to the mortgage meltdown that ignited the financial crisis and helped plunge the country into recession.

The news sent Goldman Sachs shares and the stock market reeling as the SEC said other financial deals related to the meltdown continue to be investigated. It was a blow to the reputation of a financial giant that had emerged relatively unscathed from the economic crisis.

Goldman Sachs denied the allegations. In a statement, it called the SEC's charges "completely unfounded in law and fact" and said it will contest them.

The SEC said Paulson paid Goldman roughly $15 million in 2007 to devise an investment tied to mortgage-related securities that the hedge fund viewed as likely to decline in value. Separately, Paulson took out a form of insurance that allowed it to make a huge profit when those securities' value plunged.

The fraud allegations focus on how Goldman sold the securities.

Goldman told investors that a third party, ACA Management LLC, had selected the pools of subprime mortgages it used to create the securities. The securities are known as synthetic collateralized debt obligations.

The SEC alleges that Goldman misled investors by failing to disclose that Paulson & Co. also played a role in selecting the mortgage pools and stood to profit from their decline in value.

"Goldman wrongly permitted a client that was betting against the mortgage market to heavily influence which mortgage securities to include in an investment portfolio, while telling other investors that the securities were selected by an independent, objective third party," SEC Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami said in a statement.

But Goldman said in a statement that it never mischaracterized Paulson's strategy in the transaction. It added that it wasn't obliged to "disclose the identities of a buyer to a seller and vice versa."

The charges name Goldman and one executive, Fabrice Tourre, who was a vice president in his late 20s when the alleged fraud was orchestrated in 2007. Tourre, the SEC said, boasted to a friend that he was able to put such deals together as the mortgage market was unraveling in early 2007.

In an e-mail to the friend, he described himself as "the fabulous Fab standing in the middle of all these complex, highly leveraged, exotic trades he created without necessarily understanding all of the implications of those monstrosities!!!"

Tourre, 31, has since been promoted to executive director of Goldman Sachs International in London. A call to a lawyer for Tourre, Pamela Chepiga at Allen & Overy LLP, wasn't returned.

Two European banks that bought the securities lost nearly $1 billion, the SEC said. The agency is seeking restitution and unspecified fines from Goldman Sachs and Tourre.

Asked why the SEC did not also pursue a case against Paulson, Khuzami said: "It was Goldman that made the representations to investors. Paulson did not."

Paulson & Co. is run by John Paulson, who reaped billions by betting against subprime mortgage securities. He is not related to former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a former Goldman CEO.

John Paulson was among the first on Wall Street to bet heavily against subprime mortgages. His firm earned more than $15 billion in 2007, and he pocketed $3.7 billion. He has since earned billions more, largely by betting against bank stocks and then buying them back after their shares plunged.

In a statement, Paulson & Co. said: "As the SEC said at its press conference, Paulson is not the subject of this complaint, made no misrepresentations and is not the subject of any charges."

Goldman, founded more than 140 years ago, built a reputation as a trusted adviser to investment banking clients and for sending top executives into presidential Cabinet posts.

In recent years, it shifted toward taking more risks with its clients' money and its own. Goldman's trading allowed the firm to weather the financial crisis better than most other big banks. It earned a record $4.79 billion in the last quarter of 2009.

The complaint filed in federal court in Manhattan "undermines their brand," said Simon Johnson, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Goldman critic. "It undermines their political clout. I don't think anybody really values being connected to Goldman at this point."

He continued: "There are many people who -- until this morning -- thought Goldman Sachs was well-run."

The SEC's enforcement chief said the agency is investigating a wide range of practices related to the crisis. The prospect of possible legal jeopardy for other major financial players roiled the stock market.

Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 12 percent Goldman and lost $14.2 billion in market capitalization. The Dow Jones industrial average finished down more than 125 points.

The SEC appears to be taking a particularly aggressive approach with Goldman. Typically, cases are resolved by firms agreeing to a settlement before the charges are made public, said John Coffee, a securities law professor at Columbia University.

"The SEC has changed its style," Coffee said. "They wanted to tell the world what they thought Goldman had done wrong."

The charges come as lawmakers seek to crack down on Wall Street practices that helped cause the financial crisis. Congress is considering tougher rules for complex investments like those involved in the alleged Goldman fraud.

President Barack Obama vowed Friday to veto a financial overhaul bill that doesn't regulate mortgage-backed securities and other so-called derivatives. Legislation in Congress would for the first time regulate derivatives, whose value depends on an underlying asset, such as mortgages or stocks. Senate Republicans oppose the bill.

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, is "pleased that the SEC is departing from the lax enforcement of the Bush administration and is returning to the SEC's proper role of protecting investors in the marketplace," spokesman Steven Adamske said.

The biggest loser in the alleged fraud was ABN Amro, a major Dutch bank that paid Goldman $841 million, according to the SEC. IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, a German commercial bank, lost nearly all its $150 million investment, the agency said. Most of the money the banks lost went to Paulson in a series of transactions between Goldman and the hedge fund, the SEC said.

IKB was an early casualty of the financial crisis. It issued a profit warning in 2007 saying it had been hurt by U.S. subprime mortgage investments. IKB was sold in 2008 to Dallas-based Lone Star Funds.

Ed Trissel, a spokesman for Lone Star Funds, declined to comment on the case.

The SEC charges come after Goldman Sachs denied last week it that bet against clients by selling them mortgage-backed securities while reducing its own exposure to them.

In an annual letter to shareholders, Goldman said it began reducing its exposure to the U.S. mortgage market in late 2006.

AP Business Writers Alan Zibel in Washington and Stevenson Jacobs in New York contributed to this report

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