Benedetti

Benedetti, un escritor comprometido y coherente

17:53 | Más de 80 novelas, ensayos, cuentos y poemarios son algunos de los legados dejados por el legendario escritor uruguayo

Montevideo (EFE). El escritor uruguayo Mario Benedetti deja tras de sí una rica obra, en la que sus más de 80 novelas, ensayos, cuentos y poemarios muestran el compromiso social y la coherencia de alguien que creyó “en la vida y en el amor, en la ética y en todas esas cosas tan fuera de moda”.

“Él siempre dijo que se sentía más poeta que otra cosa”, señaló la biógrafa del escritor, Hortensia Campanella, cuando presentó hace unos meses el libro “Mario Benedetti. Un mito discretísimo”, con el que trazó la trayectoria de uno de los mitos de la literatura hispanoamericana del siglo XX y quizá la conciencia poética de todo un continente.

Esa poesía se convirtió en el único báculo para afrontar sus últimos años, tras la muerte en 2006 de su esposa, Luz López, su compañera desde hacía más de seis décadas y su mejor crítico.

La de Benedetti ha sido “una vida que ha ido persiguiendo la utopía y que por eso mismo ha encontrado en la poesía su mejor expresión, o por lo menos, la más querida, la más auténtica”, señala Campanella.

Fue también el martillo que le permitió forjar una carrera literaria compaginada con las profesiones más diversas: currante en un taller de automóviles, taquígrafo, cajero, vendedor, contable, funcionario público, traductor y periodista, antes de dedicarse a lo que más quería.

“Cuando tengo una preocupación, un dolor o un amor tengo la suerte de poder transformarlo en poesía”, afirmaba.

Títulos como aquel primerizo “La víspera indeleble”, sus “Poemas de la oficina”, el oriental y tan uruguayo “Rincón de Haikus”, los grandiosos tres “Inventarios” o las “Canciones del que no canta” se vieron coronados el año pasado con su último poemario, “Testigo de uno mismo”.

Este libro vino a ser “un poco el resumen de una carrera poética extraordinaria”, con todos los grandes temas de la poesía universal desbordando sus páginas, como dijo la novelista Sylvia Lago.

La poesía dejó también mucho espacio para la prosa en la obra de Benedetti y así su principal novela, “La tregua”, es uno de los faros de la literatura del continente, con más de 140 ediciones en 20 idiomas desde su publicación en 1960.

También dedicó tiempo a los cuentos, en los que “cada palabra tiene valor por sí misma” y, sobre todo, “tienen que ver con los sentimientos”, como explicó en 1998 en un Taller de Literatura de la Casa de América de Madrid.

En su última aparición pública, en diciembre de 2007, Benedetti fue condecorado con la Orden Francisco Miranda por el presidente venezolano, Hugo Chávez, en la Universidad de la República del Uruguay, aclamado por los cientos de estudiantes que reconocían en el poeta a su bardo nacional.

En declaraciones en junio del 2002, Benedetti explicaba que si bien “los poetas no tienen capacidad de influir sobre los gobiernos”, sí “llegan al ciudadano de a pie, y a veces sirven para esclarecer una duda, para dar una tímida respuesta a una pregunta que tiene alguien”.

¿Qué pasaría si un día

despertamos dándonos

cuenta de que somos mayoría?

¿Qué pasaría si de pronto

una injusticia, sólo una,

es repudiada por todos,

todos los que somos, todos,

no unos, no algunos, sino todos?

¿Qué pasaría si en vez de

seguir divididos nos

multiplicamos, nos sumamos

y restamos al enemigo que

interrumpe nuestro paso?

¿Qué pasaría si nos

organizáramos y al mismo

tiempo enfrentáramos

sin armas, en silencio,

en multitudes, en millones de

miradas la cara de los

opresores, sin vivas,

sin aplausos, sin sonrisas,

sin palmadas en los hombros,

sin cánticos partidistas,

sin cánticos?

¿Qué pasaría si yo pidiese

por ti que estás tan lejos,

y tú por mí que estoy tan lejos, y ambos por

los otros que están muy

lejos y los otros por

nosotros aunque estemos lejos?

¿Qué pasaría si el grito

de un continente fuese

el grito de todos los continentes?

¿Qué pasaría si pusiésemos

el cuerpo en vez de lamentarnos?

¿Qué pasaría si rompemos

las fronteras y avanzamos

y avanzamos y avanzamos

y avanzamos?

¿Qué pasaría si quemamos

todas las banderas para

tener sólo una, la nuestra,

la de todos, o mejor

ninguna porque no

la necesitamos?

¿Qué pasaría si de pronto

dejamos de ser patriotas para

ser humanos?

No sé... me pregunto yo:

¿Qué pasaría...?

MEXICO: TASA DE REFERENCIA 5.25%,cayo 1%

El banco central de Mexico recorto la tasa a 5.25%, -1%
ver
http://gestion.pe/impresa/noticia/banco-central-mexico-recorta-tasa/2009-05-18/4076

PERU:RALLY BURSATIL, 22% EN QUINCENA1 MAY

VER

http://gestion.pe/impresa/noticia/acciones-lideres-bolsa-limena-ganan-22-primera-quincena-mayo/2009-05-18/4071

CHRYSLER : DESARMANDO EL SUPPLY CHAIN

VER la suerte de los concesionarios
http://gestion.pe/noticia/287345/general-motors-chrysler-eliminaran-total-900-concesionarios

PERU: BM EFECTOS DE LA CRISIS DE DIFICIL PRONOSTICO,

VER: Opinion del banco mundial
http://gestion.pe/noticia/287015/consideran-dificil-pronosticar-efectos-crisis-peru

CRISIS: SCHEMA

The crisis 101 (US economy 2008) - put simple serie

View more presentations from Konstantyn Spasokukotskiy.

peruanos Amazonicos en insurgencia

http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/america_latina/2009/05/090515_2339_peru_indios_protesta_rb.shtml?s

Chrysler cerrar el 25% de sus franquicias

http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/economia/2009/05/090514_0010_cierre_chrysler_irm.shtml?s

PERU: Un contralor que nace muerto,OTRA MIRADA

		Editorial N°10, 15/05/2009
		Un contralor que nace muerto
		El nombramiento al caballazo de Fuad Khoury como Contralor General de la República por el Congreso no soluciona sino que agrava la situación de descabezamiento de una institución fundamental para la democracia peruana. Que apristas, fujimoristas y Unidad Nacional se hayan negado no sólo a nombrar una Comisión Evaluadora para ver la candidatura, sino, peor aún, siquiera a invitar al señor Khoury a la Comisión Permanente del Congreso para interrogarlo, revela la voluntad de esta mayoría parlamentaria de renunciar a su papel fiscalizador en el tema y allanarse a los deseos del Poder Ejecutivo. La derecha y los medios que controla, manejados desde Palacio, han soltado la especie en las últimas semanas que “un grupo de congresistas incapaces” bloqueaban por gusto la designación de un nuevo Contralor poniendo requisitos sin sentido. Este trabajo mediático previo es el que ha abierto camino a la imposición de la mayoría señalada, violando los procedimientos que se habían seguido en ocasiones anteriores. Se evita así debatir el problema de fondo que es la negativa del Presidente de la República a cumplir su promesa electoral de que el Contralor debiera nombrarlo la oposición. Pero, como a los principales grupos de oposición el Presidente los califica de “anti sistema”, insiste en desconocerlos y continuamente busca invisibilizarlos, se ha olvidado de su promesa. Peor aún, dejada de lado la promesa electoral se ha negado también a buscar el consenso, pidiéndoles opinión solo a los grupos de derecha e ignorando a los demás. Por ello, el celo de los congresistas no oficialistas en la evaluación de los candidatos presentados por el gobierno. Las consecuencias de esta acción gubernamental son enormes. Antes que nada, le quitan legitimidad al nuevo Contralor. El Señor Fuad Khoury al ostentar un nombramiento políticamente viciado en su origen, carece de la autoridad para ejercer como Contralor General de la República. Es más, la falta de legitimidad lo hace un vasallo de Alan García y su círculo de íntimos, dependiendo su vida en el cargo de la voluntad de los mismos. Así ¿quién le va a creer lo que diga o haga? Nadie que no esté comprometido con el poder de turno. Ah, ¿y la Contraloría? Bien gracias.

PERU: Exportaciones a China, - 17% en el primer trimestre

Exportaciones a China registraron una caída del 17% en el primer trimestre

15:44 | Los envíos ascendieron a US$754 millones. Los minerales y harina de pescado fueron los principales productos exportados

La crisis económica sigue afectando a la economía peruana, los envíos a uno de los principales mercados, el chino, sufrieron una contracción del 17%, reportó la Asociación de Exportadores (Ádex).

El país asiático ocupó el tercer lugar del ránking de países de destino durante el primer trimestre del año con US$ 754’000.000, por debajo de Suiza US$ 942’000.000 y Estados Unidos con US$ 905, según el sistema de Inteligencia Comercial Adex Data Trade.

Precisaron que los envíos tradicionales ascendieron a US$ 715’000.000 (95% del total), mientras que las no tradicionales (con valor agregado) US$ 39’440.000.

En el caso de los tradicionales, los productos con mayor acogida fueron los minerales y la harina de pescado.

Pese a la a la negativa situación, el politólogo estadounidense y reconocido promotor de la economía china, Pan Wei, afirmó que el TLC que Perú firmó con ese país ayudará a revertir la situación.

Pan Wei participará el jueves de un seminario organizado por Ádex para entender y aprovechar los beneficios que tendrá nuestro país con la firma del tratado.

PÈRU: EX JEFE INEI, SOBREDIMENSIONAN PBI en 2 pps

En la siguiente entrevista Farid Matuk advierte que el INEI viene sobredimensionando en 2 puntos las cifras de crecimiento y bajando las cifras de pobreza desde el 2008 para favorecer al gobierno. Califica de mentiroso a Renán Quispe e indica que la estimación mensual del PBI es una farsa inventada en el primer gobierno del presidente Alan García, con la finalidad de exhibir sus presuntos éxitos.

Un sondeo de la agencia Reuters prevé un crecimiento de 2.3% para marzo y el MEF estima 3.9% para el mismo periodo. ¿Cuánto considera usted sería el PBI para marzo?

En realidad no veo un mayor crecimiento para marzo. Es que el crecimiento viene siendo manipulado o sobreestimado por parte del gobierno, alrededor de 2 puntos, desde el 2008.

¿Cómo se dio esta manipulación de las cifras?
Mediante el cambio de metodología, de la acertada fórmula económica a la actual encuesta. La manipulación se dio gradualmente o de a pocos hasta el 2007. Pero desde el 2008 a la fecha la sobreestimación de la cifras fue pareja en 2 puntos. El sobredimensionarlas les tomó año y medio al gobierno, ya que no podían hacer el maquillaje de manera tan escandalosa. Entonces desde el 2008 a todas las cifras presentadas por el INEI tenemos que restarle 2 puntos y así obtendremos el verdadero resultado.

¿Cómo hacía antes el INEI su estadística?
La diferencia central es que antes el INEI publicaba las hojas de cálculo que permitían a cualquier persona verificar la veracidad de los resultados. Entonces cuando en el 2006 se retira la metodología de la Web, advertí mediante una columna en un diario local que se venía algo torcido por parte del gobierno. Y el tiempo me dio la razón.

¿Qué permitía las hojas de cálculo?
Permitía una transparencia de la información. Antes las estimaciones que hacían el INEI ya sea del sector transporte y comercio se obtenían mediante cálculos matemáticos realizados en una hoja de Excel, ahora estas estimaciones vienen de una encuesta secreta que nadie las ha visto.

Justamente Quispe calificó esa metodología matemática como obsoleta, bajo ese argumento cambió la metodología a la encuesta.
Entonces por qué se mordió la lengua tres años. Si fuera verdad que la metodología es obsoleta y se dio cuenta el 2006, porque no lo dijo en ese entonces que la metodología es errónea, porque se quedó callado… porque es una mentira. Es así que cuando lo descubren en falta, inventan una cuarta para ocultar la manipulación de las cifras.

Pero Renán Quispe reconoció el cambio de la metodología del INEI
Si, pero tres años después de haberse realizado y debido a la presión de la opinión pública. Como dice el refrán en la boca del mentiroso lo cierto se hace dudoso, ya que él (Renán Quispe) podría haber dicho que el cambio de la fórmula matemática a la actual y secreta encuesta es para mejorar el estudio del INEI, pero no lo dijo.

¿A qué se debe esta poca transparencia en la información por parte del INEI?
El INEI viene manipulando las cifras con la finalidad de crear un falso crecimiento o un falso éxito del gobierno. Lo que tenemos ahora es que el INEI está alterando las cifras de crecimiento económico y de reducción de pobreza, con la finalidad de que luzcan como éxitos resultados de crecimiento económico que son iguales a los de los anteriores gobiernos de Toledo y Fujimori. Por lo tanto, no existe tal logro por parte del gobierno de turno, los índices de crecimiento y pobreza son similares a los de la década de los 80 años. Los valores presentados por el INEI son desproporcionados o incoherentes con la realidad.

Entonces ahora los peruanos tenemos un INEI parcializado
Así es, tenemos una oficina de estadística poco transparente que se ha convertido en un organismo de propaganda de los supuestos éxitos del gobierno y eso es una falla institucional. Lamentablemente el Instituto ha confundido sus funciones y cree que sólo tiene que dar buenas noticias, cuando debe entender que si hay inflación es problema del Banco Central, si hay desempleo es problema del Ministerio de Trabajo, si la economía no crece es problema del Ministerio de Economía. Si la información es perjudicial o beneficiosa, eso no es problema del INEI.

¿Usted cuestiona la medición mensual que hace el INEI del PBI?
Sí, porque es una farsa, una fantasía inventada por el primer gobierno del presidente García para su vanagloria. Sólo Canadá y Finlandia, dos de las naciones más desarrolladas pueden medir mensualmente el PBI. Ni EE.UU. y los países de Europa lo pueden hacer debido a su complejidad, a sus altos costos e inversión.

Entonces la supuesta medición del PBI mensual ¿qué es?
No es nada. Lo que nos muestra mensualmente el INEI no es nada, el PBI mensual es un baño de florecimiento o una lectura de cartas.

¿Qué realmente mide mensualmente el INEI?
La supuesta medición mensual del PBI no es más que la medición física de un 30% de la economía. Es decir, la producción total, cuántas toneladas o unidades físicas de cobre, harina de pescado, entre otros, ha vendido. Pero estas unidades físicas no me permiten determinar el valor agregado del producto o el PBI. Una cosa es producción física, cantidad de diarios vendidos y otro el valor agregado o la utilidad neta. El primero es fácil de conseguir, el segundo es complejo de informar. Es diferente preguntarle al dueño de una empresa por la cantidad de productos que vendió mensualmente y otra pedirle ¿cuanto ganó?, ahí demoraría en brindarte la información ya que tendría que descontar todos sus gastos, como costos operativos, pago a la municipalidad y el sueldo de los trabajadores de la empresa.

¿Que podría entregar el INEI?
Lo mismo que hace la oficina estadística de Chile que mensualmente reporta la producción total basada en una fracción de la economía, que en el caso peruano sería el 30% (agricultura, pesca, minería, manufactura, luz y agua). Entonces el INEI coherentemente diría que la producción física mensual se incrementó en 5,10 o 20 puntos.

Wilder Mayo Méndez
Redacción

PERU:-7.2 % MARZO 09/08 SEGUN INEI

La economía peruana creció 3,05% en marzo, informó el INEI

11:30 | La cifra muestra una considerable recuperación luego de que en febrero el avance fue de tan solo 0,19%. Ya son 93 los meses de incremento consecutivo de la actividad productiva en el país.

(Reuters).- La economía peruana se recuperó y creció un 3,05% en marzo, cifra mayor al dato esperado por analistas, debido principalmente al empuje de los sectores de construcción y agropecuario, informó el Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI).

La variación del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de marzo fue mejor al dato de febrero, cuando avanzó solo 0,19%, la tasa mensual más baja desde junio del 2001.

Sin embargo, el crecimiento económico del tercer mes del año fue menor al 7,2% de marzo del 2008.

El INEI dijo además que, para el primer trimestre del 2009, la economía nacional creció un 2,02%, frente al 10,3% de la expansión registrada en el primer trimestre del año pasado.

El dato del período enero-marzo fue el más bajo desde el tercer trimestre del 2001, según el Banco Central de Reserva (BCR).

En un sondeo de Reuters, analistas habían estimado un crecimiento económico del 2,3% para marzo, y del 1,8% para el primer trimestre del año.

El jefe del INEI, Renán Quispe, dijo que la variación del PIB anualizado a marzo, fue de 7,81%.

Los sectores de mayor crecimiento en el mes fueron el agropecuario y el de construcción, con un avance de 7,27% y 6,3%, respectivamente.

Pero el sector de manufactura, el que más empleo genera en el país, cayó en marzo un 5,4%.

El Gobierno peruano tiene como meta crecer entre 3 y 4% en el 2009, frente al avance de 9,84% del 2008, la tasa de expansión más alta en 14 años.

The undocumented and business survival in the United States

Es una estimada compatriota, saludos,

April 30, 2009

By Myriam Quispe-Agnoli,

The undocumented and business survival in the United States

Based on the severe economic contraction during the past six months, it is obvious why the topic of the economy receives so much attention as the economy directly weighs on the lives of citizens and businesses here and throughout the world. But the weight of the economy can have indirect effects as well, including potentially shifting attention from other policy issues.

For instance, a recent Bloomberg News article describes how economic troubles may affect potential immigration reform legislation.

"The long campaign to overhaul U.S. immigration laws may be derailed for yet another year—this time by the deteriorating economy."

The immigration debate is multifaceted, complex, and, at times, contentious. There are myriad issues to consider when entering into the immigration reform discussion, many of which are best left to the political process to decide. But, as the Bloomberg article describes, there is an important economic component to the immigration discussion. Economists can make a modest contribution to the debate by supplying unbiased research that touches on various aspects of the immigration question.

In that spirit, I offer up the results of research I've done with my colleagues, Julie Hotchkiss of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and David Brown of Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh. Our research looks into the potential impact of undocumented workers on firm survival and is based on confidential information from the state of Georgia, which between 2000 and 2008 experienced the fastest growth in the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

In this research, we find that firms employing undocumented workers enjoy a competitive advantage over firms that do not employ undocumented workers. We also observe that firms engage in herding behavior, i.e., firms will employ undocumented workers if their competitors do. The herding behavior is a natural consequence of competitive pressure: Rival firms' undocumented workforce lowers a firms' survival probability, while a firm's own undocumented workforce strongly enhances that firm's survival prospects.

Our analysis suggests that cost savings enjoyed by firms employing undocumented workers is a result of paying these workers wages that are less than what is paid to comparable documented workers. Because the advantage of hiring undocumented workers is cost-related, herding behavior and competitive effects are weaker if firms have the option to shift labor-intensive production out of state or abroad.

Our findings have several implications relevant to the policy discussion. The most straightforward prediction would be that if immigration reform is successful in forcing firms to pay undocumented workers market wages, the competitive advantage of hiring these workers may disappear. As a consequence, the demand for undocumented workers might well dissipate.

In addition, reform efforts that reduced the supply of undocumented workers (e.g., through tougher border and worksite enforcement) would raise firms' production costs, which may have an impact on prices if firms pass through these additional costs to consumers. However, this last point is not a direct implication of our analysis.

One word of caution about this study: Our results are based on the payroll reports of employers. This study does not have information on the activities of undocumented workers that are not recorded on firms' official wage records.

There are, of course, many other aspects of immigration policy to be considered, and we are loath to characterize the results of our research as supporting any particular approach or conclusion. But we do hope it sheds some light on a debate that already has its fair share of heat.

By Myriam Quispe-Agnoli, research economist and assistant policy adviser at the Atlanta Fed

__._,_.___

Stocks still face deflationary collapse: Prechter

muy preocupante

Stocks still face deflationary collapse: Prechter
Thu May 14, 2009 6:09pm EDT


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Longtime technical analyst Robert Prechter, who forecast the 1987 stock market crash, predicted this week that U.S. equities may plunge to half their lows hit in March as a deflationary depression bites.

Oil and U.S. Treasury bonds are also locked in long term bear markets, while corporate bond prices will plunge precipitously by next year as broad economy, banking system and company earnings sustain more damage from a financial crisis that's akin to the Great Depression, he said.

The U.S. S&P 500 stock index's rebound by nearly 40 percent since it sagged to a 12-year closing low of 676 points on March 9 is not sustainable, Prechter said in an interview with Reuters.

"It's not the start of a new bull market," said Prechter, chief executive at research company Elliott Wave International in Gainesville, Georgia. "Our models are (showing) right now that it is a much bigger bear market than most people realize, something along the lines of 1929-1932," he told Reuters in a wide ranging interview. "It's a very rare event," he added.

"I think the next leg down will be at least as severe if not more severe than what we just experienced. So you want to stay on the side of safety," he said.

As in his 2002 book "Conquer the Crash," which warned of the dangers of a U.S. debt bubble and deflationary depression, Prechter continues to advocate safer cash proxies such as Treasury bills.

SEVEN MORE YEARS?

Riskier assets such as commodities, corporate bonds, and stocks which are currently anticipating that the severe global economic downturn may be bottoming, are likely to have short lived intense rallies, but within an inexorable long-term decline that may last another seven years, he said.

As banks continue to accumulate losses and corporate earnings fall, "the difficulties will probably last through about 2016," he said. "There will be plenty of rallies along the way."

Oil may rally further from current levels just below $60 per barrel but the upside will be capped at about $80 per barrel as the commodity is locked in a long-term bear market, he said.

In July, U.S. crude oil hit a record peak above $147 per barrel and was just above $57 per barrel around noon on Thursday.

"Deflation is coming, it's going to lead to a depression. We're not at the bottom yet," Prechter said. "I think we are going to have bouts of deflation separated by recoveries."

Prechter also painted a bleak picture for commodities like silver and is largely unenthusiastic about gold, believing the precious metal made a major peak when it rose above $1,000 last year.

While gold may have already topped at above $1,000 an ounce in March 2008, Treasury bond prices are likely to fall in a long term bear market, with huge government debt issuance being the main catalyst.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield, which moves inversely to its price, hit a five-decade low of 2.04 percent in mid-December.

"People got very enamored with bonds and very enamored with gold and I don't like to be invested in markets that are over subscribed," Prechter said.

"The Treasury (Department) has taken on so much bad debt" at a time tax receipts are falling, that "there will be a slow, but very steady change in the way people will view the U.S. government," said Prechter. As a result, investors in Treasury notes and bonds will ultimately demand higher yields, he said.

The U.S. central bank will not be able to control the government bond market and prevent yields from rising, regardless of how much money the Fed uses to buy Treasuries, he added.

Next year, U.S. corporate bond prices will probably fall below their extreme price lows of December during the market panic of 2008 when investors fled riskier assets, he said.

"Corporates in terms of price have the big wave down coming. This has been a prequel," Prechter said.

"Many corporations who (now) say we can borrow more money and take more risks: those are the ones who will get in trouble," he said. "Many municipalities will default," he added.

(Reporting by John Parry, Haitham Haddadin and Ellis Mnyandu.)

Fwd: Macroperu The Doha Round at the back of the agenda

The Doha Round: A safety net in stormy weather

David Laborde Debucquet 14 May 2009

The current financial crisis has fostered a demand for protectionism and put the Doha Round at the back of the agenda. This column argues that a failed Doha Development Agenda would send the wrong signal in terms of global governance and could lead to an unravelling of the past 15 years of trade liberalisation.

The current financial crisis has fostered a demand for protectionism, and could lead to new trade barriers as occurred after the October 1929 crisis. A parallel can easily be drawn between the current situation and the one that existed then. In the early 1930s, unemployment was rising, a fear of deflation was prevailing, and a lack of public resources (especially in countries that paid war reparations) prevented governments from remedying the economic crisis. Moreover, today as in 1930, the context of decreasing prices can mechanically reinforce protection, as specific duties (which are numerous in agriculture) become more and more restrictive when world prices are down. In this type of economic context, protectionism is a tempting policy instrument for policymakers: it increases domestic prices and domestic activity in the short term, and it provides new government revenue. In addition, governments do not correctly anticipate world retaliation and counter retaliation, as was the case with the US in 1930 and also in 2007, when in the middle of the food crisis, governments implemented export bans and export restrictions in successive rounds of retaliation and counter retaliation. Therefore, a vicious circle of rising protectionism is always a possibility.

But there is one big difference between today's situation and that of 1930; WTO membership means that countries cannot raise tariffs above bound duties, and therefore, an increase in tariff protectionism such as between the two world wars is more implausible today. As Pascal Lamy, director-general of the WTO, stated in a speech in Sydney on March 2, 2009: "The Doha Round is the most effective way to further constrain protectionist pressures by reducing the gap between bound commitments and applied policies." The WTO is an international public good that acts as an insurance scheme against potential trade wars. And the insurance scheme would be even more effective if WTO members would conclude the Doha Round, making new commitments and reducing bound duties.

Because membership in the WTO acts as a deterrent to increased protectionism, the "cyclicity" of protectionism was much more pronounced before the WTO existed. For example, in the US the average tariff on dutiable imports was 50% in 1894, 40% in 1896, and 52.1% in 1899. The next cycle was even more severe; 49.8% in 1902, 16.4% in 1920, and 59.1% in 1932. Similar trends occurred in France (Messerlin 1985) and other European countries (Bairoch 1995; Irwin 1992). What explains this "cyclicity" of protectionism?

The main explanation is that it is linked to business cycles. During periods of sustained economic growth, unemployment is not a national concern and governments are prone to open borders to foreign competition—especially when trading partners are doing the same. During times of economic recession, the job market provides less opportunities, threats to existing jobs are badly perceived, and lobbying for protection increases.

What if Doha failed?

It is possible to evaluate how much trade destruction would occur if the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) were to fail. A recent study using the MIRAGE model of the world economy (Bouet and Labourde 2009) reveals a potential loss of $2,262 billion in volume of annual trade by 2025 (11.8%)—due not only to a failed DDA, but also to the fact that WTO members would increase protection levels to existing bound duties. The study indicates that the costs of rising protection would be almost five times greater than the gains realised from trade creation resulting from the DDA. This result is not surprising because of the asymmetric situation that currently exists; past liberalisation has kept tariffs low and has limited the margin of reduction. But at the same time, the binding overhang is still significant, especially for developing countries.¹ Even a limited increase in protection (such as eliminating the unilateral liberalisation that has taken place since the end of the Uruguay Round) would lead to a potential loss of $1,453 billion (7.6%).

A successfully concluded DDA would not only increase trade, but it would also reinforce binding commitments and reduce existing bound duties, which would make the trade environment more secure and decrease the costs associated with potential trade wars. The study concretised this idea by comparing the application of current bound duties with the application of new bound duties resulting from the DDA; a successful DDA would be worth $809 billion in terms of trade volume and $184 billion in terms of real income.

These conclusions are especially true for poor countries since most unilateral and unbound liberalisations have taken place in the developing world in recent years, and poor countries currently benefit from unilateral preferences granted by developed countries that may be cancelled should the DDA fail. If the real value of the DDA is measured by the insurance role that it plays, then two-thirds of the total global value of $184 billion in terms of real income (or $128 billion) would benefit developing countries. This explains why the DDA should be finally considered as a "Development" Round.

By focusing only on the limited gains of the DDA, many observers have neglected the potential cost of its failure; a failed DDA would send the wrong signal in terms of global governance, and in more pragmatic terms, it could lead to an unravelling of the past 15 years of trade liberalisation. In the current unstable environment, a concrete global agreement will be the proof needed by the private sector that governments can act upon the commitments they make in speeches.

References

Bairoch, P. 1995. Economics and World History: Myths and Paradoxes. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Bouet, A., and D. Labourde. 2009. Assessing the Potential Cost of a Failed Doha Round. IFPRI Discussion Paper, Forthcoming, IFPRI.
Irwin, D.A. 1992. Multilateral and Bilateral Trade Policies in the World Trading System: an Historical Perspective. In New Dimension of Regional Integration, eds. de J. de Melo and A. Panagarya. Cambridge .Center for Economic Policy Research.
Messerlin P. 1985. Les Politiques Commerciales et leurs Effets en Longue Periode. In Le Protectionnisme, eds. B. Lassuderie-Duchene and J.-L. Reiffers. Paris: Economica.
US International Trade Commission, 2006,Value of US Imports for Consumption, Duties Collected and Ratio of Duties to Values, 1891 – 2005, Statistical services Division, March 2006.

Fwd: Macroperu Luis Carranza, Finance Minister of Peru and barefaced liar

saludos,g

It always happens eventually; the liar gets caught in his lie. Yesterday Peru's FinMin and nation's number two liar Luis Carranza (numero uno above) gave a presentation on the prospects for his country's economy. If anyone wants a copy of the powerpoint show (49 slides of fun with dense numbers, graphs with arrows pointing UP! UP! UP! and Spanish language) send me a mail, but suffice to say the whole idea must have been to blow smoke in the eyes of the dumbass nodding donkey journalists present. That's because anyone with a basic understanding of economics....and i mean basic really is enough...can see just how much BS was on display yesterday. For one thing, the full-on statistician Farid Matuk was quick to point out that MEF has quietly dropped something called GDP elasticity from 3 to 1. What this means in practical terms is that they are suddenly toeing the line of the Central Bank and assuming a currency devaluation to maintain growth at all costs (esp to the cost of those poor Limeños with mortgages in dollars). However a different statistic that I noted was that the breakdown of Carranza's fantasy 3.5% GDP growth this year assumes a 5% growth in mining GDP. Whaaaaaaaaaaaaat?????? We're supposed to believe that Peru's mining industry will contribute 5% more this year than it did last year...remember copper at $4/lb, Zinc and Lead at $1/lb and silver at $18/oz, people? Here's a chart using final metals exports as a proxy to total GDP activity in Peru's mining sector (as nearly all the metal produced in Peru is exported). We see the 2008 export figures for Peru, the first three months of 2009 and what Peru will need to export to get that 5% growth Carranza masturbates about. It's asinine. It's just a heap of barefaced lies. Nothing else. There's no way that monthly exports can suddenly jump from under $1.1bn to over $1.83Bn and stay at that average for the rest of the year. More likely is a $6bn gap between the cash Carranza wants and the cash he's going to get. And $6Bn in Peru is a significant chunk of annual GDP. There's only one question left to answer now: Will this man do the honourable thing and resign when his ridiculous economic projections are proven false by the end of this year?

__._,_.___

--

PERU:MEDICION DE PROMESAS ELECTORALES

http://www.rpp.com.pe/2009-05-14-las-promesas-electorales-no-se-pueden-verificar-segun-ex-presidente-del-inei-noticia_181384.html

Fwd: Macroperu El Pronostico de K.Rogoff

de bruno seminario

En los primeros meses de este año, volvió a dominar la dinámica de los mercados financieros una visión complaciente del futuro; el cambio de actitud se registró en el mes de enero, y, se consolidó cuando se anunció el nuevo plan de erscatee financiero del gobierno de Estados Unidos , el retorno a la normalidad en el mercado de crédito, y, la ateración en la política monetearia en Estados Unidos. Como consecuencia, el capital que había buscado  un refugio seguro en los bonos del tesoro estadounidenses, se aplicó a comprar distintos instrumentos financieros: acciones, materias primas, papeles de economías emergentes, etc. Pero, ¿posee este optimismo una base sólida ?  Los argumentos que dan  quienes postulan esta visión oprimista de los acontecimientos son bastante débiles. Por ejemplo, dicen que  ha disminuido la tasa de descenso en el  ritmo de actividad económica, pero omiten mencionar que aún es negativa. Además, en todas recesión  se rgesitra un desarrollo similar. Sin embrago, este proceso poco dice sobre la fecha en que se regsitrará la recuperación de la economía. ¿Cual es el significado de la palabra recuperar? Hago la pregunta porque los optimsiatas tienen un cocncepción bastante particular sobre el significado del término.

The "New Normal" for Growth

by Kenneth Rogoff

Cambridge – Markets are bubbling over signs of "green shoots" in the global economy. An increasing number of investors see a strong rebound coming, first in China, then in the United States, and then in Europe and the rest of the world. Even the horrible growth numbers of the last couple quarters don't seem to discourage this optimistic thinking. The deeper the plunge, the stronger the rebound, some analysts say.

Perhaps these optimists are right. But how strong an expansion can one reasonably expect when the worst is finally over? Is the "new normal" going to be the same as the "old normal" of the boom years from 2002 to 2007?

I have trouble seeing how the US and China, the main engines of global growth for two decades, can avoid settling on a notably lower average growth rate than they enjoyed before the crisis.

Let's start with the US, the epicenter of the financial crisis, and still the most important economy in the world. In the best of worlds, the US financial sector will emerge from the crisis smaller and more heavily regulated. Not to worry, some economists, say. The US grew rapidly in the 1950's and 1960's with a relatively heavily regulated banking system. Why not again?

Sure, but the early post-war financial sector wasn't called upon in those days to support nearly as diverse and sophisticated an economy as it is today. If authorities set the clock back several decades on banking regulation, can we be so sure they will not also set the clock back on income?

US consumption, the single biggest driver of global growth, is surely headed to a lower level, on the back of weak housing prices, rising unemployment, and falling pension wealth. During the boom, US consumption rose to more than 70% of GDP. In the wake of the crisis, it could fall down towards 60%.

And what about the major political shift the US has experienced? Tired of go-go growth, voters now look for more attention to addressing environmental concerns, health-care issues, and income inequality. But achieving these laudable goals will be expensive, coming on top of the giant budget deficits the US is running to counter the financial crisis. Higher taxes and greater regulation cannot be good for growth.

True, there is room to run the government more efficiently, especially in the areas of education and health care. But will these savings be enough to offset the burden of a significantly larger overall government? I hope so, and certainly the Obama administration is a breath of fresh air after the stunning ineptness of the Bush-Cheney years. But governments all over the world are always convinced that their expansions can be substantially financed by efficiency gains, and that dream usually proves chimerical.

Chinese growth is set to slow over the longer run, as well. Even before the financial crisis, it was clear that China could not continue indefinitely on its growth trajectory of 10% or more. Environmental and water problems were mounting. It was becoming increasingly clear that as China continued to grow faster than almost anyone else, the rest of the world's import capacity (and tolerance) could not keep up with China's export machine. China was becoming too big.

With the financial crisis, the Chinese economy's necessary adjustment towards more domestic consumption has become far more urgent. True, even as exports have collapsed, the government has managed to prop up growth with a huge spending and credit expansion. But, while necessary, this strategy threatens to upset the delicate balance between private- and public-sector expansion that has underpinned China's expansion so far. The growing role of the government, and the shrinking role of the private sector, almost surely portends slower growth later this decade.

Europe, too, faces challenges, and not just from the fact that it now has the worst downturn of the world's major economic regions, with Germany's government warning of a surreal 6% decline in GDP for 2009. The ongoing financial crisis will almost surely slow the integration of the accession countries in Central and Eastern Europe, whose young populations are the single most dynamic source of growth in Europe today.

Not all regions will necessarily have slower economic expansion in the decade ahead. Assuming continuing reforms in countries such as Brazil, India, South Africa, and Russia, emerging markets could well fill some of the growth gap left by the largest economies. But, in all likelihood, after years of steadily revising up its estimates of trend global growth, the International Monetary Fund will start revising them down.  

Even after the crisis, global growth is almost certain to remain lower than the pre-crisis boom years for some time to come. This change may be good for the environment, for income equality, and for stability. Governments are right to worry about the quality of growth, not just its speed. But when it comes to tax and profit estimates, investors and politicians need to reorient themselves to the "new normal" – lower average growth.

Kenneth Rogoff is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009.
www.project-syndicate.org

by Kenneth Rogoff

Cambridge – Markets are bubbling over signs of "green shoots" in the global economy. An increasing number of investors see a strong rebound coming, first in China, then in the United States, and then in Europe and the rest of the world. Even the horrible growth numbers of the last couple quarters don't seem to discourage this optimistic thinking. The deeper the plunge, the stronger the rebound, some analysts say.

Perhaps these optimists are right. But how strong an expansion can one reasonably expect when the worst is finally over? Is the "new normal" going to be the same as the "old normal" of the boom years from 2002 to 2007?

I have trouble seeing how the US and China, the main engines of global growth for two decades, can avoid settling on a notably lower average growth rate than they enjoyed before the crisis.

Let's start with the US, the epicenter of the financial crisis, and still the most important economy in the world. In the best of worlds, the US financial sector will emerge from the crisis smaller and more heavily regulated. Not to worry, some economists, say. The US grew rapidly in the 1950's and 1960's with a relatively heavily regulated banking system. Why not again?

Sure, but the early post-war financial sector wasn't called upon in those days to support nearly as diverse and sophisticated an economy as it is today. If authorities set the clock back several decades on banking regulation, can we be so sure they will not also set the clock back on income?

US consumption, the single biggest driver of global growth, is surely headed to a lower level, on the back of weak housing prices, rising unemployment, and falling pension wealth. During the boom, US consumption rose to more than 70% of GDP. In the wake of the crisis, it could fall down towards 60%.

And what about the major political shift the US has experienced? Tired of go-go growth, voters now look for more attention to addressing environmental concerns, health-care issues, and income inequality. But achieving these laudable goals will be expensive, coming on top of the giant budget deficits the US is running to counter the financial crisis. Higher taxes and greater regulation cannot be good for growth.

True, there is room to run the government more efficiently, especially in the areas of education and health care. But will these savings be enough to offset the burden of a significantly larger overall government? I hope so, and certainly the Obama administration is a breath of fresh air after the stunning ineptness of the Bush-Cheney years. But governments all over the world are always convinced that their expansions can be substantially financed by efficiency gains, and that dream usually proves chimerical.

Chinese growth is set to slow over the longer run, as well. Even before the financial crisis, it was clear that China could not continue indefinitely on its growth trajectory of 10% or more. Environmental and water problems were mounting. It was becoming increasingly clear that as China continued to grow faster than almost anyone else, the rest of the world's import capacity (and tolerance) could not keep up with China's export machine. China was becoming too big.

With the financial crisis, the Chinese economy's necessary adjustment towards more domestic consumption has become far more urgent. True, even as exports have collapsed, the government has managed to prop up growth with a huge spending and credit expansion. But, while necessary, this strategy threatens to upset the delicate balance between private- and public-sector expansion that has underpinned China's expansion so far. The growing role of the government, and the shrinking role of the private sector, almost surely portends slower growth later this decade.

Europe, too, faces challenges, and not just from the fact that it now has the worst downturn of the world's major economic regions, with Germany's government warning of a surreal 6% decline in GDP for 2009. The ongoing financial crisis will almost surely slow the integration of the accession countries in Central and Eastern Europe, whose young populations are the single most dynamic source of growth in Europe today.

Not all regions will necessarily have slower economic expansion in the decade ahead. Assuming continuing reforms in countries such as Brazil, India, South Africa, and Russia, emerging markets could well fill some of the growth gap left by the largest economies. But, in all likelihood, after years of steadily revising up its estimates of trend global growth, the International Monetary Fund will start revising them down.  

Even after the crisis, global growth is almost certain to remain lower than the pre-crisis boom years for some time to come. This change may be good for the environment, for income equality, and for stability. Governments are right to worry about the quality of growth, not just its speed. But when it comes to tax and profit estimates, investors and politicians need to reorient themselves to the "new normal" – lower average growth.

Kenneth Rogoff is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009.
www.project-syndicate.org

__._

FRANCE:The Almighty Renminbi?

The Almighty Renminbi?

By NOURIEL ROUBINI

Published: May 13, 2009

THE 19th century was dominated by the British Empire, the 20th century by the United States. We may now be entering the Asian century, dominated by a rising China and its currency. While the dollar’s status as the major reserve currency will not vanish overnight, we can no longer take it for granted. Sooner than we think, the dollar may be challenged by other currencies, most likely the Chinese renminbi. This would have serious costs for America, as our ability to finance our budget and trade deficits cheaply would disappear.

Gary Taxali

Related

Op-Ed Contributor: China’s Heart of Gold (May 14, 2009)

Print Version of Op-Art (May 14, 2009)

Traditionally, empires that hold the global reserve currency are also net foreign creditors and net lenders. The British Empire declined — and the pound lost its status as the main global reserve currency — when Britain became a net debtor and a net borrower in World War II. Today, the United States is in a similar position. It is running huge budget and trade deficits, and is relying on the kindness of restless foreign creditors who are starting to feel uneasy about accumulating even more dollar assets. The resulting downfall of the dollar may be only a matter of time.

But what could replace it? The British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc remain minor reserve currencies, as those countries are not major powers. Gold is still a barbaric relic whose value rises only when inflation is high. The euro is hobbled by concerns about the long-term viability of the European Monetary Union. That leaves the renminbi.

China is a creditor country with large current account surpluses, a small budget deficit, much lower public debt as a share of G.D.P. than the United States, and solid growth. And it is already taking steps toward challenging the supremacy of the dollar. Beijing has called for a new international reserve currency in the form of the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights (a basket of dollars, euros, pounds and yen). China will soon want to see its own currency included in the basket, as well as the renminbi used as a means of payment in bilateral trade.

At the moment, though, the renminbi is far from ready to achieve reserve currency status. China would first have to ease restrictions on money entering and leaving the country, make its currency fully convertible for such transactions, continue its domestic financial reforms and make its bond markets more liquid. It would take a long time for the renminbi to become a reserve currency, but it could happen. China has already flexed its muscle by setting up currency swaps with several countries (including Argentina, Belarus and Indonesia) and by letting institutions in Hong Kong issue bonds denominated in renminbi, a first step toward creating a deep domestic and international market for its currency.

If China and other countries were to diversify their reserve holdings away from the dollar — and they eventually will — the United States would suffer. We have reaped significant financial benefits from having the dollar as the reserve currency. In particular, the strong market for the dollar allows Americans to borrow at better rates. We have thus been able to finance larger deficits for longer and at lower interest rates, as foreign demand has kept Treasury yields low. We have been able to issue debt in our own currency rather than a foreign one, thus shifting the losses of a fall in the value of the dollar to our creditors. Having commodities priced in dollars has also meant that a fall in the dollar’s value doesn’t lead to a rise in the price of imports.

Now, imagine a world in which China could borrow and lend internationally in its own currency. The renminbi, rather than the dollar, could eventually become a means of payment in trade and a unit of account in pricing imports and exports, as well as a store of value for wealth by international investors. Americans would pay the price. We would have to shell out more for imported goods, and interest rates on both private and public debt would rise. The higher private cost of borrowing could lead to weaker consumption and investment, and slower growth.

This decline of the dollar might take more than a decade, but it could happen even sooner if we do not get our financial house in order. The United States must rein in spending and borrowing, and pursue growth that is not based on asset and credit bubbles. For the last two decades America has been spending more than its income, increasing its foreign liabilities and amassing debts that have become unsustainable. A system where the dollar was the major global currency allowed us to prolong reckless borrowing.

Now that the dollar’s position is no longer so secure, we need to shift our priorities. This will entail investing in our crumbling infrastructure, alternative and renewable resources and productive human capital — rather than in unnecessary housing and toxic financial innovation. This will be the only way to slow down the decline of the dollar, and sustain our influence in global affairs.

Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at the New York University Stern School of Business and the chairman of an economic consulting firm.

Obama Proposes a First Overhaul of Finance Rules

By STEPHEN LABATON and JACKIE CALMES

Published: May 13, 2009

WASHINGTON — In its first detailed effort to overhaul financial regulations, the Obama administration on Wednesday sought new authority over the complex financial instruments, known as derivatives, that were a major cause of the financial crisis and have gone largely unregulated for decades.

Win McNamee/Getty Images

The Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, at a banking industry meeting on Wednesday. He is seeking new regulations.

Related

Questions for Myron Scholes: Crash Course (May 17, 2009)

Times Topics: Derivatives

The administration asked Congress to move quickly on legislation that would allow federal oversight of many kinds of exotic instruments, including credit-default swaps, the insurance contracts that caused the near-collapse of the American International Group.

The Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, said the measure should require swaps and other types of derivatives to be traded on exchanges or clearinghouses and backed by capital reserves, much like the capital cushions that banks must set aside in case a borrower defaults on a loan. Taken together, the rules would probably make it more expensive for issuers, dealers and buyers alike to participate in the derivatives markets.

The proposal will probably force many types of derivatives into the open, reducing the role of the so-called shadow banking system that has arisen around them.

“This financial crisis was caused in large part by significant gaps in the oversight of the markets,” Mr. Geithner said in a briefing. He said the proposal was intended to make the trading of derivatives more transparent and give regulators the ability to limit the amount of derivatives that any company can sell, or that any institution can hold.

The initiative was well received by senior Democrats in Congress with jurisdiction over the issue. The proposal had been expected, but some lawmakers, impatient with the pace of the new administration’s efforts, had begun moving ahead themselves.

Hinting at a lobbying campaign to come, Robert Pickel, the chief executive of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, a trade group, said his organization “looked forward to working with policy makers to ensure these reforms help preserve the widespread availability of swaps and other important risk management tools.”

But some in the financial industry say that regulation is inevitable. “Nobody is in a ‘just say no’ mode,” said Steven A. Elmendorf, a former aide to the House Democratic leadership who represents several major financial institutions and groups. “Everybody understands that we’ve been through a financial crisis and that change has to happen. And the only question is how the change happens.”

The administration is seeking the repeal of major portions of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, a law adopted in December 2000 that made sure that derivative instruments would remain largely unregulated.

The law came about after heavy lobbying from Wall Street and the financial industry, and was pushed hard by Democrats and Republicans alike. It was endorsed at the time by the Treasury secretary, Lawrence H. Summers, who is now President Obama’s top economic adviser.

At the time, the derivatives market was relatively small. But it soon exploded, and the face value of all derivatives contracts across the world — a measure that counts the value of a derivative’s underlying assets — outstanding at the end of last year totaled more than $680 trillion, according to the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland. The market for credit-default swaps — a form of insurance that protects debtholders against default — stood around $38 trillion, according to the international swaps group. That represents the total amount of insurance that has been written on various kinds of debt, but the amount that would have to be paid out if the debt went into default is considerably less.

As the credit crisis has unfolded, trading in credit-default swaps has cooled, market participants said. The collapse of A.I.G. took a huge player out of the market and banks, hobbled by losses, have curbed their activities in the market. Still, derivatives trading desks have been profit centers at major banks recently.

The biggest banks and brokerage firms, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, as well as major insurers, are all major players in derivatives.

Derivatives are hard to value. They are virtually hidden from investors, analysts and regulators, even though they are one of Wall Street’s biggest profit engines. They do not trade openly on public exchanges, and financial services firms disclose few details about them. The new rules are meant to change most, but not all, of that opacity.

Used properly, they can reduce or transfer risk, limit the damage from market uncertainty and make global trade easier. Airlines, food companies, insurers, exporters and many other companies use derivatives to protect themselves from sudden and unpredictable changes in financial markets like interest rate or currency movements. Used poorly, derivatives can backfire and spread risk rather than contain it.

The administration plan would not require that custom-made derivative instruments — those with unique characteristics negotiated between companies — be traded on exchanges or through clearinghouses, though standardized ones would. The plan would require the development of timely reports of trades, similar to the system for corporate bonds.

Related

Questions for Myron Scholes: Crash Course (May 17, 2009)

Times Topics: Derivatives

The letter suggested that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission would play a leading role in the oversight of the market, although it would also leave important elements to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Over the years, the turf battle between those agencies contributed to the neglect of that market by government overseers.

Some lawmakers in the House and Senate have already introduced measures to regulate derivatives. But a number of members have pressed the administration to put out its own plan.

Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee that oversees the S.E.C., and Representative Collin C. Peterson of Minnesota, chairman of the House Agriculture Committee with oversight of the commodities trading commission, released a joint statement saying, “we agree there must be strong, comprehensive and consistent regulation” of derivatives. “We will work closely together to achieve that goal,” they added.

While derivatives regulation will be a focus of some market players, of equal concern to many in the financial industry are what the Obama administration and Congress might do to regulate compensation for executives across the board, not just at institutions that have accepted federal bailout money.

The Treasury is acting on two paths. First, it plans as soon as next week to announce revised compensation rules for companies getting assistance, to make those rules conform with a law Congress passed in February that was more stringent than the Treasury’s own guidelines.

Separately, Treasury officials have just begun discussing with the Federal Reserve and the S.E.C. what the government can do industrywide — through incentives, restrictions or a mix of the two — to guard against eye-popping compensation that rewards excessive risk-taking of the sort that contributed to the current crisis.

The fear among many in the industry — and some in the administration — is that whatever limits Mr. Obama proposes, Congress will seek to add even more, in response to public anger.

In addition to the regulatory changes it is seeking, the administration is also continuing to expand its bailout programs for various industries. Mr. Geithner announced on Wednesday that the administration would provide a new round of capital assistance to smaller community banks, and would increase the amount that they can borrow from the program.

Beyond derivatives, he also said that the administration would be presenting a comprehensive proposal to overhaul the regulation of the financial system. He said a central goal would be to eliminate the ability of companies to pick the least onerous regulator.

“We need a much simpler financial oversight structure,” he said. “It’s not going to be comfortable for everybody but it’s important to do.”

AFP: SOBRE EL ALZA DE COMISIONES, KBURNEO

Cómo Ganar Mas de 3 Millones de Soles

Kurt Burneo

No, no necesita ganar la lotería sino solamente ser accionista de una AFP. El caso es que una de las cuatro AFP´s anunció para alegría de sus accionistas y mala suerte de sus afiliados que elevaría su comisión por administrar el fondo de sus afiliados de 1.98% a 2.3%: Entonces si tal como la propia AFP lo reconoce hasta el momento cuenta con 996,000 afiliados con un salario promedio de 1,000 nuevos soles, su decisión unilateral de aumento en la comisión, le reporta mayores ingresos por S/. 3´187,000 nuevos soles mensuales, curiosamente y por pura casualidad esta decisión de esta AFP surge a continuación de la ley recientemente promulgada que establece la no afectación de las gratificaciones para efectos de aportes al sistema pensionario.

Muy al margen que la decisión de esta AFP implica directamente la reducción del salario real de sus afiliados, el caso es que no hay mucho margen de reacción para estos últimos, dado que la posibilidad de traslado a otra AFP no se efectiviza en lo inmediato; es así que si un trabajador afiliado a esta AFP no quisiera seguir recibiendo estas atípicas expresiones de afecto y presentase sus solicitud de traslado hoy a otra AFP (dado que todas las otras cobran comisiones mas bajas) la generación de aportes y comisiones en la nueva administradora recién se efectivizaría en el mes de julio tal como la aplicación de nuestra normatividad vigente lo establece.

Téngase en cuenta que el gerente de esta administradora, para justificar la decisión señalaba que: “Los afiliados están alcanzando una rentabilidad de 13% de su inversión, entonces no hay un equilibrio” …(el rendimiento para los accionistas de esta AFP es de “sólo US$ 33 millones”), ¿Usted cree amigo lector que si realmente hubiera competencia en el mercado de administración de fondos previsionales sería posible sin mayor problema como ocurre hoy, el que una AFP incremente el precio del servicio para aumentar el rendimiento de la inversión de los dueños? Claro cuando en lo inmediato la demanda por servicios de administración de fondos de pensiones es (por arreglo institucional) perfectamente inelástica, ello sí es factible.

Otro interesante argumento de esta AFP engreidora de sus afiliados, para justificar el alza en la comisión, según su gerente general es porque:….”lo mas importante es mantener el servicio que venimos dando a nuestros afiliados” Veamos, si le tomamos la palabra a este funcionario el mejor servicio que espera el afiliado de su AFP o de cualquiera, está asociado con el rendimiento neto que logre. El caso es que dado que la rentabilidad se calcula sobre el monto de la cuenta individual de capitalización (el ahorro del afiliado) y las comisiones sobre las remuneraciones; se necesita calcular una comisión que convierte lo que un afiliado desembolsa actualmente durante todo su periodo de ahorro (tiempo de vida laboral útil alrededor de 30 años) en una comisión que se estime sobre su cuenta individual de capitalización, a esto se denomina Comisión Equivalente. Entonces si descontamos a la rentabilidad del fondo pensionario de un afiliado la comisión equivalente, se tiene una versión ajustada de la rentabilidad neta y según cálculos de la propia SBS, paradójicamente, la AFP que subió su comisión para mantener “el servicio a sus afiliados” en los últimos 10 años (dado que el análisis debe hacerse con una perspectiva de largo plazo) presenta una rentabilidad neta de 7.12%, la mas baja respecto a las otras. ¿Mejor servicio?

Adicionalmente, este tipo de decisiones unilaterales van a contrasentido del objetivo macroeconómico de las recientes medidas dictadas, para exonerar las gratificaciones al pago de aportes previsionales y liberalización de las CTS, las cuales buscan propulsar el ingreso disponible, el consumo y la demanda…... Excepto que se suponga que los accionistas de esta AFP tienen tantas necesidades insatisfechas que su propensión a consumir (y por tanto el efecto sobre el consumo y demanda en la economía) es mucho mayor que la que tienen sus afiliados. Al final 3 millones de soles adicionales al mes para los accionistas de esta AFP, los obtienen no por jugar a la loteria, ni por racionalizar sus costos como cualquier otra empresa, sino gracias a una privilegiada posición en un mercado cautivo.

USA: Retail Sales Decline in April

Ver el grafico sobre indice de ventas minoristas


by CalculatedRisk on 5/13/2009 02:07:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.4% from March to April (seasonally adjusted), and sales are off 11.4% from April 2008 (retail and food services decreased 10.1%). The following graph shows the year-over-year change in nominal and real retail sales since 1993. Click on graph for larger image in new window.To calculate the real change, the monthly PCE price index from the BEA was used (April PCE prices were estimated as the average increase over the previous 3 months).Although the Census Bureau reported that nominal retail sales decreased 11.4% year-over-year (retail and food services decreased 10.1%), real retail sales declined by 11.9% (on a YoY basis). The second graph shows real retail sales (adjusted with PCE) since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted.NOTE: The graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.This shows that retail sales fell off a cliff in late 2008, and are still declining - but at a slower pace.Here is the Census Bureau report:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $337.7 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 10.1 percent (±0.7%) below April 2008. Total sales for the February through April 2009 period were down 9.2 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The February to March 2009 percent change was revised from -1.2 percent (±0.5%) to -1.3 percent (±0.3%). Retail trade sales were down 0.4 percent (±0.7%)* from March 2009 and 11.4 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 36.4 percent (±1.5%) from April 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 20.7 percent (±2.3%) from last year.

AFP: TC invoca compartir riesgos

El TC pidió al Congreso que AFP compartan las pérdidas con sus afiliados

7:03 | El vicepresidente del Tribunal Constitucional planteó dar una ley que obligue a las administradoras de pensiones asumir riesgos de inversiones

(Andina).- El Tribunal Constitucional (TC) exhortó al Congreso para que, como un principio de equidad, apruebe una ley que obligue a las Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones (AFP) a compartir las pérdidas que se generen con los fondos de pensiones de sus afiliados.

El vicepresidente del TC, Carlos Mesía, dijo que esta medida está contenida en la sentencia que incluye la “información engañosa” como causal de desafiliación de estas entidades, en la Ley de libre desafiliación aprobada por el Congreso.

“Lo que le estamos pidiendo al Congreso es que las AFP también compartan el riesgo de sus inversiones, si el afiliado pierde, el patrimonio de las AFP también debe reflejar esa pérdida”, manifestó a la agencia Andina.

Indicó que a consecuencia de la crisis financiera internacional, los fondos de pensiones han perdido mucho dinero, pero esta pérdida solo recae en los trabajadores, y no a las AFP que son los responsables de su manejo.

Más aún, agregó el magistrado, en tiempo de crisis estas empresas han ganado, porque cobran una comisión fija que no varía, exista pérdida o ganancia de los fondos, lo que resulta nada equitativo con sus afiliados.

El magistrado manifestó que lo que se está pidiendo es una legislación en las que las AFP también compartan el riesgo de administrar los fondos de pensiones, para que no afecte solo a sus afiliados.

Este pronunciamiento del máximo tribunal constitucional ocurre en momentos en que algunas AFP han anunciado el incremento de sus comisiones, para compensar los aportes que dejarán de percibir en las gratificaciones de julio y diciembre.

El Congreso aprobó una ley que declara que las gratificaciones estarán liberadas de los pagos de AFP y EsSalud.