Fwd: Macroperu El Retorno de los Controles de Capitales

bruno seminario

¡Cómo cambia todo ! En este artículo W. Buiter nos decribe como en estge momento se generlizan los controles de capitales en las economías emergentes; incluso, parece que ahora son recomendados por el propio Fondo Internacional. Hace algunos años quien proponía un idea semjante era acusado de enemigo del progreso , amante de edad piedra
i, etc.

The return of capital controls

February 18, 2009 10:43pm

When Iceland's banking system and currency collapsed last September, a key component of the emergency package that was introduced under the auspices of the IMF were controls on capital outflows, implemented through rigorous foreign exchange controls. This made sense. The currency was in free fall. The foreign exchange markets had seized up. There was no level of domestic interest rates the Central Bank of Iceland (which had zero credibility at this stage) could set that would induce domestic and foreign investors to hold on to their Icelandic kroner rather than converting them into euro, US dollars, sterling or any other serious convertible currency.

Capital controls in CEE

Iceland is about to have company. The most likely candidates for the imminent imposition of capital controls are in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and among the CIS countries. We can expect to see capital controls imposed even by some of the EU members from Eastern Europe that have not yet adopted the euro as their currency (the Baltics, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania).

All these countries have banking sectors that are overwhelmingly foreign-owned. With the de-globalisation and repatriation of the cross-border banking sector that is underway, parent banks (mainly in Western Europe) have become progressively less able and/or less willing to finance their subsidiaries in Central and Eastern Europe. The resulting financial stresses in the host countries have led the ECB to take the extremely unusual step of making swap facilities available to the central banks of two non-Eurozone EU members, Hungary and Poland. Hungary, which suffers from long-standing fiscal incontinence, has an IMF program as well.

The financial support from the ECB (and from the EC) is probably not unrelated to the fact that a number of Eurozone commercial banks are heavily exposed in CEE and the CIS. Austrian banks, in particular, have a massive exposure to the former Austro-Hungarian empire, as does Unicredit (an Italian bank) and several Nordic banks are at risk throughout the region, from the Baltics to Ukraine.

In most CEE countries, households and non-financial corporations played the reverse carry trade by borrowing in the foreign currencies with the lowest interest rates, oblivious to the exchange risk this involved. These CEE counterparts of Mrs Watanabe did so without having any natural foreign exchange hedges (foreign currency assets or income) and without taking out any synthetic hedges. Households throughout CEE have Swiss-franc-denominated residential mortgages. I am surprised there weren't more yen-denominated residential mortgages taken out! With the sharp decline in the external value of their currencies (the Polish zloty has declined against the euro by more than 35 percent since its peak in mid-2008, the Hungarian forint by 26 percent and the Czech koruny by 22 percent), the real value of their debt and debt service has increased sharply. Fortunately, most of these mortgages have long remaining maturities.

The same does not hold for the foreign currency debt taken on by the non-financial corporate sector in CEE. Much of this has a short maturity. In addition, during the period prior to the middle of 2008, when their currencies were appreciating, many CEE corporates bet on further appreciation of their currencies by writing puts on them. With their currencies way down, these corporates find themselves having to buy zloty, say, from the buyers of these puts, in exchange for euro at a much higher price for the zloty in terms of the euro than the current spot exchange rate, let alone the exchange rate anticipated when these CEE corporates wrote the puts. A further collapse of the currency would raise the likelihood and incidence of defaults among corporate borrowers.

The banks in CEE may have both assets and liabilities denominated to a large extent in foreign currency. Because their clients are not currency-matched, the banks have replaced currency risk on their balance sheets with credit risk.

Some of the CEE countries were the victims of wild domestic credit and asset market booms and bubbles even before they were hit by the global credit crunch (through the drying up of funding for the local subsidiaries by the parent banks). Latvia is the most extreme example, but Estonia and, to a lesser degree Lithuania, were also caught up in classic, post-reform unsustainable emerging-market booms, with out-of-control construction industries and epic current account deficits. Bulgaria, which like the Baltics has a currency board vis-a-vis the euro, Romania and Poland (both with floating exchange rates) also ran growing current account deficits that had unsustainability warning lights flashing.

All CEE countries, including those that had unsustainable domestic credit and asset market booms, are being hit hard by the domestic impact of the global credit crunch and by the collapse of world trade. The Czech Republic and Poland are the two CEE non-Eurozone members least likely to impose capital controls. The rest range from possible to quite likely.

The imposition of capital controls on a temporary basis to deal with a foreign exchange crisis/balance of payments emergency is compatible with the EU Treaties. Indeed, de-facto informal foreign exchange rationing has been taken place for quite a while in some countries. When I was in Latvia a year ago, local commercial bankers told me that if someone wished to borrow lat (the local currency), they would not lend it to him if the bank thought he was likely to use it to speculate against the currency peg of the lat with the euro. This is against the rules - indeed against the law — but it happened. Where could the frustrated would-be short seller of the Lat go to complain? To the Latvian central bank?

Of course, an EU country that imposes capital controls could forget about joining the Eurozone in the foreseeable future, unless the Maastricht criteria for EMU membership were waved or scrapped. Although the unconditional offer of immediate full EMU membership to all EU members would be a wise and wonderful contribution to the stabilisation of the region, I consider it unlikely that such wisdom will indeed be found in Frankfurt, Brussels and the national capitals of the EU - inhabited as these locations are by bears of very little brain. With Eurozone membership years away, the cost of imposing capital controls, in terms of further delays in EMU accession, would be minor.

Some of the non-EU countries in the Balkans (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia) are also likely to have recourse to capital controls before long. Montenegro already has the euro as its currency, despite not being a member of the Eurozone. Among the CIS countries that are likely candidates for the imposition of capital controls are Ukraine, Russia Kazakhstan.

Capital controls in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Ukraine is in an economic and political mess. Its banking system is a triumph of hope over fair value. Its currency is weakening rapidly. Its export-oriented heavy industry and its agricultural sector have been hit hard by declining prices and world demand. It has an IMF program.

Russia has gone from Himmelhoch jauchzend to zum Tode betrübt in the space of less than a year. With oil at $140 a barrel and $460 bn of foreign exchange reserves, Russia felt and acted like a would-be super power. With oil at $40 a barrel and reserves draining fast in an unsuccessful attempt to stabilise the Rouble without raising interest rates, Russia looks increasingly like Venezuela with nukes. Industrial production has collapsed and the public finances are under severe strain. Russia's industry has borrowed heavily abroad, in foreign currency, and on a short-term basis. Its banking system can no longer fund itself in the international wholesale markets. Russia 2009 looks more and more like Russia 1998. Capital controls would be an obvious tool to regain control of the Rouble without having to engage in immediate heroic monetary and fiscal policy tightening. Even if the anti-capital controls faction in the Russian leadership wins the ongoing argument with the pro-capital controls faction, events may well force the hand of the authorities.

Kazakhstan may have enough financial resources and gas/oil revenues (despite the decline in oil prices) to get through the financial storm and the global slump without being forced to impose capital controls. It already had one major bail-out of its banks, however, and if Russia and Ukraine were to impose capital controls, Kazakhstan may well follow.

The joys and pain of an open capital account

For countries with a minor-league currency (every currency except for the US dollar, the euro and the yen), an open capital account will always be a mixed blessing. The joys of an open capital account - the undoubted benefits from decoupling domestic capital formation from national saving and from unrestricted international portfolio diversification and risk trading - cannot be enjoyed without the pain: the risk of its domestic financial institutions, capital markets, non-financial enterprises, consumers and public finances becoming the flotsam and jetsam on massive and mindless killer waves propelled by an out-of-control global financial storm.

Capital controls permit monetary and fiscal policy to be directed to the stabilisation of economic activity without having to worry about a collapse of the currency and its deleterious effects on the sectoral and national balance sheets. Of course capital controls will leak. They always leak. But provided they are enforced aggressively, say, with transgressors stoned to death in public after a fair trial, they can be made to work well enough to regain control of monetary and fiscal policy. And capital controls will leak progressively more copiously, the longer they are in place. Which is why their imposition should be viewed as temporary, with a gradual relaxation as economic conditions improve and global financial stability returns. Capital controls create rents whose allocation is at the discretion of public officials. They therefore encourage bribery, graft and corruption. Which is again why they should only be temporary.

The emerging markets of CEE and the CIS (and indeed emerging markets everywhere) have been progressively cut off from new external funding as the crisis deepened. At this stage, imposing capital controls (only controls on capital outflows really matter, at this stage; controls on capital inflows should have been imposed earlier) would not bring with it a heavy cost in terms of a sudden stop on capital inflows. That stop has happened already. Imposing capital outflow controls may discourage future capital inflows. The example of Malaysia, which imposed capital controls during the Asian crisis of 1997 suggests that foreign capital either has a short memory or can be convinced.

Conclusion

I predict that at least some of the emerging market countries of CEE and the CIS will impose capital controls before long. I recommend that emerging markets everywhere consider this option seriously.

February 18, 2009 10:43pm in Economics, European Union, Financial Markets, International Trade, Monetary Policy, Politics 1 link

__._,_.___

Messages in this topic (1) Reply (via web post) Start a new topic

Messages Links Polls Members Calendar

MARKETPLACE

---

From kitchen basics to easy recipes - join the Group from Kraft Foods

Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest Switch format to Traditional
Visit Your Group Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use Unsubscribe

Recent Activity

Visit Your Group

All-Bran

10 Day Challenge

Join the club and

feel the benefits.

Group Charity

Loans that

change lives

Kiva.org

Support Group

Lose lbs together

Share your weight-

loss successes.

.

__,_._,___

--
http://www.betaggarcian.blogspot.com/

Trafico de Contenedores en el puerto de los Angeles.

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2009

LA Area Ports: Exports Decline in January

by CalculatedRisk on 2/18/2009 04:46:00 PM

The LA area port traffic data, released today, suggests U.S. exports continued to decline in January.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the combined loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Long Beachand Los Angeles in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Inbound traffic was 14% below last January. This slowdown in imports (inbound traffic to the U.S.) is hitting Asian countries hard. There was a slight increase from December to January, but that appears to be mostly seasonal (the data is NSA).

For the LA area ports, outbound traffic continued to decline in January, and was 28% below the level of January 2008. Export traffic is now at about the same level as in 2005. The suggest U.S. exports continued to decline in January after declining sharply in the 2nd half of 2008.

--
http://www.betaggarcian.blogspot.com/

Fwd: Macroperu Greenspan y la nacionalización

Stress testing "nationalization"

Wed Feb 18, 4:51 pm ET

A touchy word has entered the public debate about the future of America's economy. It's a word that would shock the nation in normal times, but as even Republicans begin to whisper it, temporary "nationalization" of troubled banks is increasingly seen as our last best hope for fixing our financial system.

Simply put: Nationalizing ailing banks means the government would tell bank execs to take a hike, and then oversee taxpayer dollars as they course through the banking sector's veins. When all is well, perhaps after selling assets and operations to new private investors, the government then steps back and lets a newly regulated bank sector float on its way.

Arguments for bold government action range from the passionate (Michael Hirsh of Newsweek) to the elegant (Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times). In any case, the number of economists and columnists calling for an aggressive takeover of our "zombie banks" is growing.

This week, respected economists Nouriel Roubini and Matthew Richardson laid it all out in a Washington Post op-ed:

"The U.S. banking system is close to being insolvent, and unless we want to become like Japan in the 1990s -- or the United States in the 1930s -- the only way to save it is to nationalize it….Nationalization is the only option that would permit us to solve the problem of toxic assets in an orderly fashion and finally allow lending to resume. Of course, the economy would still stink, but the death spiral we are in would end.

One could ignore this pessimistic view if Roubini hadn't been consistently correct in his predictions for our worsening economy. Roubini, or "Dr. Doom," as some have called him, is one of the few who saw the housing meltdown coming and who actually voiced his concerns years before it happened.

In a recent interview with Bill Moyers, Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, argues that many of the executives and members of the banking lobby need to be fired or flushed out, though he stops just short of explicitly calling it nationalization.

Another former IMF economist, however, does not. Ken Rogoff, a Harvard professor who was at the IMF with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, thinks government receivership of insolvent banks is becoming our only option. In a roundtable discussion on "PBS NewsHour," Rogoff predicted Geithner and his aides will come to the same conclusion once they "stress test" more Wall Street balance sheets.

Nobel-winning economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman was one of the first to note that Geithner's new financial rescue plan does not rule out nationalization. Krugman points to Geithner's "stress tests" as a possible first step in the temporary government takeover of crumbling banks:

"Will those public-private partnerships end up being a covert way to bail out bankers at taxpayers' expense? Or will the required "stress test" act as a back-door route to temporary bank nationalization (the solution favored by a growing number of economists, myself included)? Nobody knows."

Krugman notes in a following column just how quickly the idea of nationalization is picking up steam, even among conservatives:

"There's hope that the bank rescue will eventually turn into something stronger. It has been interesting to watch the idea of temporary bank nationalization move from the fringe to mainstream acceptance, with even Republicans like Senator Lindsey Graham conceding that it may be necessary."

On "This Week" on ABC, Graham argued for nationalization, while Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer glowingly endorsed Geithner's seemingly less-than-aggressive rescue plan.

Meawhile, on NBC's "Meet the Press," senior White House adviser David Axelrod was asked if nationalization was off the table. Axelrod said it was not, indicating the Obama administration will do whatever it takes to right the nation's financial ship.

However, President Obama has publicly indicated he is against nationalization, for now. When asked about Sweden and how it temporarily nationalized its banks in the early 1990s, saving its economy from an extended slump, Obama noted that Sweden is a different kettle of fish, a rather smaller and socialist one to be exact.

When ABC's George Stephanopoulos asked Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) about nationalization on "This Week," she said she wasn't quite ready to take that route herself. But she also pointed to the national semantics surrounding the question as the first key hurdle to clear:

"Well, George, as you know, the word "nationalization" scares the hell out of people. And so the debate has been opened up now, and that's good. Let's talk about it."

- Thomas Kelley

**Yahoo! News bloggers compile the best news content from our providers and scour the Web for the most interesting news stories so you don't have to.

__._,_.___

Messages in this topic (1) Reply (via web post) Start a new topic

Messages Links Polls Members Calendar

MARKETPLACE

---

From kitchen basics to easy recipes - join the Group from Kraft Foods

Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest Switch format to Traditional
Visit Your Group Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use Unsubscribe

.

__,_._,___

--
http://www.betaggarcian.blogspot.com/

Fwd: Macroperu Predicciones oficiales

Fed says US economy will get worse in 2009

Fed says American economy will get worse in 2009, no sign housing market will stabilize

Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Wednesday February 18, 2009, 7:31 pm EST

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve warned Wednesday that the nation's crippled economy is even worse than thought and predicted it would deteriorate throughout 2009, with no sign that the housing market will stabilize.

The Fed's bleak estimates indicated that unemployment could climb as high as 8.8 percent this year and that the economy would contract for a full calendar year for the first time since 1991.

The central bank's latest projections came hours after a separate report showed that new home construction and applications for future projects both fell to record lows last month.

Still, some economists saw a silver lining in the otherwise dismal housing report: Scaled-back building should reduce the number of unsold homes and contribute to an eventual housing recovery.

The reports raise the stakes for the plan President Barack Obama announced Wednesday to curb foreclosures and ease the broader U.S. housing slump that sent the economy into recession.

The Fed's latest forecast says the unemployment rate will climb to between 8.5 and 8.8 percent this year. The old prediction, issued in mid-November, estimated that the jobless rate would rise to between 7.1 and 7.6 percent.

Many private economists believe the current 7.6 percent jobless rate -- the highest in more than 16 years -- will hit at least 9 percent by early next year even with the $787 billion stimulus package signed into law Tuesday by Obama.

The Fed also believes the economy will contract this year between 0.5 and 1.3 percent. The old forecast said the economy could shrink by 0.2 percent or expand by 1.1 percent.

The last time the economy registered a contraction for a full year was in 1991, by 0.2 percent. If the Fed's new predictions prove correct, it would mark the weakest showing since a 1.9 percent drop in 1982, when the country had suffered through a severe recession.

The grim outlook represents the growing toll of the worst housing, credit and financial crises since the 1930s. All of those negative forces have plunged the nation into a recession, now in its second year.

"Given the strength of the forces currently weighing on the economy," Fed officials "generally expected that the recovery would be unusually gradual and prolonged," according to documents on the Fed's updated economic outlook.

In another sign of the troubled economy, production at the nation's factories, mines and utilities fell 1.8 percent last month, more than economists expected. That figure, the third monthly drop in a row, was dragged down by a 23 percent drop in production at auto plants and their suppliers.

Meanwhile, construction of new homes and apartments plummeted 16.8 percent in January from the previous month, the Commerce Department said, falling to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 466,000 units, a record low. Analysts expected a pace of 530,000 housing units.

Building permits, a measure of future activity, also sank to a record low pace of 521,000 units in January, a 4.8 percent drop from the prior month.

"Conditions in the market for new homes have not been this bad since the 1930s, and they continue to worsen," said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Mass. He predicted that housing starts would remain depressed for months to come.

But other economists saw some glimmers of hope in the report. The sharp cuts in new home building should help reduce inventories of unsold homes, which reached record levels last year, and stabilize home prices, which have been battered by a flood of foreclosed homes on the market.

Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said that reduced homebuilding lowers economic growth in the short run, "but it does help get inventories down to more reasonable levels."

Builders have cut the number of new homes on the market for almost two years, Newport said, but sales have fallen even more quickly. As a result, the Commerce Department said last month that it would take 12.9 months to sell all the new homes on the market, the longest on record.

That could drop closer to five to six months by the end of this year, Reinhart said, levels that are consistent with a more stable market.

The housing sector also got a boost Wednesday from the Obama administration, which unveiled a $75 billion effort to prevent up to 9 million Americans from losing their homes.

The plan also will double the size of the lifeline the government is providing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $200 billion each as a way of reassuring financial markets of the viability of both mortgage finance giants.

David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, said the administration's foreclosure program plus help for first-time home buyers included in the stimulus measure would have an impact.

"I do think we will see a bottom in 2009 and by the end of this year we will start to see the beginning of a recovery," he said. "But it will be a slow recovery because of the significant overhang of empty houses for sale."

The Fed was more pessimistic when it released a set of new economic projections and the minutes of its Jan. 17-19 meeting.

Members of the Fed's open market committee "saw no indication that the housing sector was beginning to stabilize," the minutes said.

While falling home prices and historically low mortgage rates have made homes more affordable, the Fed said, "concerns that house prices may fall further appeared to be holding back potential buyers."

Despite the lower unemployment and overall economic projections from the Fed, Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MRF Inc., said the growth estimates for this year and next remain "much too optimistic."

The Fed forecast calls for the jobless rate to dip to between 8 and 8.3 percent next year, and to between 7.5 and 6.7 percent in 2011. The normal range for unemployment is around 5 percent.

Employment is usually the last piece of the economy to heal once the country is out of recession and in recovery mode. Businesses are usually reluctant to ramp up hiring until they feel confident that any recovery has staying power.

Under the Fed's new projections, the economy should grow between 2.5 and 3.3 percent next year and by as much as 5 percent in 2011, which would be considered robust.

Shapiro is not convinced. The central bank's forecasts are in the "'hope springs eternal camp,'" he said.

AP Economics Writers Christopher S. Rugaber and Martin Crutsinger contributed to this report.

_

--
http://www.betaggarcian.blogspot.com/

bruno seminario,Fwd: Macroperu Los problemas de la CEE

By Emma Ross-Thomas

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Germany and France may be forced to contemplate the bailout of entire nations rather than just individual banks as European government budgets buckle under the weight of recession.

German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck became the first senior policy maker to broach the topic earlier this week, saying some of the 16 euro nations are "getting into difficulties" and may need help. He went further today, saying Germany would show its "ability to act." French officials are also concerned about market tensions as the cost of insuring Irish, Greek and Spanish debt against default rises to records and bond spreads widen.

The nightmare for Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy is that widening deficits will prompt investors to shun the debt of some countries, sparking a region-wide crisis. While few investors are yet forecasting any defaults, the mere risk of it may prompt the bloc's two richest economies to ignore the European Central Bank and announce their willingness to come to the rescue.

"When push comes to shove Germany, France, the larger players will bail out those smaller peripheral players," said Alex Allen, chief investment officer of Eddington Capital Management. "You can't let one part of the system fail because it leads to failure of the whole system."

Allen's betting that the risk at least one nation will leave the bloc is higher than the market currently expects.

Swelling Deficits

European deficits have ballooned as governments from Berlin to Dublin committed more than 1.2 trillion euros ($1.5 trillion) to save their banking systems from collapse. The European Commission urged countries to bring their deficits back in line today as EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the best way Greece and Ireland could deal with market pressure was by strengthening their finances.

The European Union's executive arm forecasts a deficit of 11 percent in Ireland, 6.2 percent in Spain and 4.6 percent in Portugal this year, compared with an average gap for the euro region of less than 1 percent in 2007.

European officials have already expressed concern that their bond market could potentially face a crisis similar to that unleashed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September. ECB board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said Feb. 12 there's a "risk that the mistrust that there is today in financial markets" is "transformed into mistrust in states."

Bond Spreads

"I would be very reluctant to say: 'O.K., let Ireland or Greece default, the market will sort it out, punish them for their irresponsibility of the past,'" said Thomas Mayer, co-head of global economics at Deutsche Bank AG in London. "They tried it with Lehman and realized that was not a good idea."

The gap between the interest rates Greece, Portugal and Spain must pay investors to borrow for 10 years and the rate charged to Germany rose yesterday to the widest since before they adopted the euro and credit-default swaps on Ireland hit a record. The differential between Austrian and German yields widened to a record today as concern intensified about Austria's exposure to eastern European banks.

"Austria is on the hook for so much money that essentially if they don't get paid by eastern Europe they'll go bust," Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. "So the European Union basically has to help Austria one way or the other."

Greek credit-default swaps, at 270 points on Feb. 16, show a 4.5 percent chance that the country will default in the next 12 months, according to ING Bank NV.

No-Bailout Rule

Eddington Capital's Allen, who runs a fund of hedge funds, says the market currently "vastly underestimates" the risks and expects credit-default swaps for Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal to double in the next 12 months.

Any state-funded rescues may nevertheless meet with opposition from the ECB, which has repeatedly said the Maastricht Treaty forbids bailouts.

"The no-bailout rule is an important pillar on which the European Union was founded," ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark, who helped draw up the fiscal rules underpinning the euro, said Jan. 15. Today he urged countries with large deficits to take measures to rein them in.

At the same time, the treaty also says that EU nations can grant financial assistance to a member state if a country is "threatened with severe difficulties" caused by "exceptional occurrences beyond its control."

"The member countries are working hard on a 'pre-emptive de facto bailout' to prevent the test of the "no bailout" clause," said Juergen Michels, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in London.

Single Treasury

Part of the problem policy makers now face stems from the fact the currency union does not have a single treasury and relies on the Stability and Growth Pact, which has been breached in the past, to keep budgets in check. Billionaire investor George Soros said yesterday the region's economy must confront the problem posed by the lack of a Europe-wide finance ministry.

For now, finance officials say that market concerns are not justified. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said in Rome on Feb. 14 he's confident countries will work toward sustainable public finances.

Greek Finance Minister Ioannis Papathanasiou said three days earlier the extra interest rates on his country's debt were unjustified. Spain's Deputy Finance Minister Carlos Ocana categorically ruled out a default on Feb. 16, and the Irish Finance Ministry warned yesterday against drawing conclusions about public finances from the CDS market.

Steinbrueck's comments nevertheless suggest that views in Berlin are shifting as the financial crisis worsens.

"In reality the other states would have to rescue those running into difficulties," he said Feb. 16. Steinbrueck said that Ireland was in a "very difficult situation."

"There will have to be some kind of support package for some of the smaller economies to avoid the tension and speculation about breakup," said Ken Wattret, senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in London. "The bigger national governments will say this isn't our problem. But when push comes to shove, they might need to provide some kind of financial support."

To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Ross-Thomas in Madrid at erossthomas@bloomberg.net

__._,_.___

__,_._,___

Tres conclusiones provisionales podemos extraer de la última información estadística. Primero, los primeros efectos de la crisis son más intensos en otras regiones del mundo que en Estados Unidos. En particular, el impacto parece ser más severo en Europa Oriental y en Asia . Aunque la razón es diferente, en estas regiones del mundo el producto bruto interno y los índices de producción industrial muestran los mayores decensos. Sin embargo, la raz´`on básica que explica la intensidad de la contracción es diferente. En Europa Oriental, es un producto del colapñso de la esfera financiera del la globalización, mientra<s que en Asia l fuerza que explica la intensidad máxima de la contracción es el colpaso de la esfera comercial de la< globa<lización. Como en estos momentos, el epicentro de los acontecimientos parece ya no estar en Estados Unidos sino en estas regiones conviene estar informado sobre lo que ocurre en estas regiones del Mundo.

-- bruno seminario

¿Opera Stanford en el Perú?

Billionaire's bank customers denied their deposits

By BEN FOX, Associated Press Writer Ben Fox, Associated Press Writer – 20 mins ago

ST. JOHN'S, Antigua – Panicky depositors were turned away from Stanford International Bank and some of its Latin American affiliates Wednesday, unable to withdraw their money after U.S. regulators accused Texas financier R. Allen Stanford of perpetrating an $8 billion fraud against his companies' investors.

Some customers arrived in Antigua by private jet and were driven up the lushly landscaped driveway of the bank's headquarters, only to be told that all assets have been frozen pending an investigation by Antiguan banking regulators.

"I don't know what to think. I have my life savings here," said Reinaldo Pinto Ramos, 48, a Venezuelan software firm owner who flew in by chartered plane from Caracas Wednesday with five other investors to check on their accounts. "We're waiting to see some light."

Banking regulators and politicians around the region are scrambling to contain the damage after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed civil fraud charges against the billionaire on Tuesday. Regional Director Rose Romero of the SEC's Fort Worth office called it a "fraud of shocking magnitude that has spread its tentacles throughout the world."

Stanford, 58, is a larger-than-life figure in the Caribbean, using his personal fortune — estimated at $2.2 billion by Forbes magazine — to bankroll public works and sports teams. He also is a major player in U.S. politics, personally donating nearly a million dollars, mostly to Democrats. At 6-foot-4 and 240 pounds, he towered over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi while giving her a warm hug at the Democratic National Convention last year.

He owns a home in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and operates businesses from Houston to Miami and Switzerland to Antigua, where the government knighted him in 2006 in recognition of his economic influence and charity work.

U.S. regulators have accused Stanford, two other executives and three of their companies of luring investors with promises of "improbable and unsubstantiated" high returns on certificates of deposit and other investments.

Many details about the alleged fraud remain unclear, but the SEC alleges a pattern of secrecy, including a failure to disclose the bank's exposure to losses in money manager Bernard Madoff's alleged Ponzi scheme.

The SEC said no one but Stanford and James M. Davis of Baldwyn, Miss., the Antigua-based bank's chief financial officer, know where most of depositors' cash is invested, and both men have failed to cooperate with investigators. "Approximately 90 percent of SIB's claimed investment portfolio resides in a 'black box' shielded from any independent oversight," the SEC said in its complaint.

Stanford wasn't talking Wednesday and a company Web site directed inquiries to the SEC. But in an e-mail to his employees last week, the billionaire said his company was cooperating with the probe, and vowed to "fight with every breath to continue to uphold our good name and continue the legacy we have built together."

A federal judge appointed a receiver to identify and protect Stanford's assets worldwide, including about $8 billion managed by the bank, which has affiliates in Mexico, Panama, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela.

Also frozen were assets of Houston-based Stanford Capital Management and Stanford Group Company, which has 29 brokerage offices around the U.S.

"The fallout threatens catastrophic and immediate consequences" for the twin-island nation of Antigua and Barbuda, said Prime Minister Baldwin Spencer. It also could rattle the economies of smaller nations where Stanford's companies have had outsized influence.

SEC spokesman John Nester said the agency does not know where Stanford is. James Sullivan, the U.S. marshal for the Virgin Islands, said agents are monitoring his "extensive holdings" in St. Croix, including a boat he sometimes he docks there, but could not say whether he is in the territory. He does not currently face any charges requiring his presence in court.

"As of right now, all we are doing is an ongoing investigation to monitor his holdings, for lack of better term, and we are not actively pursuing him," Sullivan told The Associated Press.

Some U.S. lawmakers quickly announced they would donate Stanford's campaign contributions to charity.

The Stanford Financial Group, through its political action committee and employees, has contributed $2.4 million to political candidates, parties and committees in the U.S. since 1989, with nearly two-thirds going to Democrats, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a group that tracks campaign spending.

Most of that cash flowed during the 2002 election cycle, when Congress was debating a financial services antifraud bill that would have linked the databases of state and federal banking, securities and insurance regulators. The bill ultimately died in the Senate, where the biggest recipients have been Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla. ($45,900); Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. ($28,150); Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn. ($27,500); and Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas ($19,700). Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas also received $41,375.

Stanford and his wife Susan also donated $931,100 of their own money, with 78 percent going to Democrats, including $4,600 to President Barack Obama's presidential campaign last May 31. Records show $2,300 of that was returned on the same day.

Governments across Latin America and the Caribbean took a variety of actions Wednesday to protect investors who'd deposited money with Stanford-linked institutions.

Colombia and Ecuador suspended the activities of Stanford's local brokerages Wednesday, and Panamanian regulators occupied Stanford bank branches hit by a run on deposits, which they described as an isolated "consequence of decisions adopted by foreign authorities." Assets at the bank's four Panama branches, which reportedly held $200 million in deposits at year's end, are held largely in liquid, fixed-income investments that can more easily be converted into cash to cover deposits if necessary, the bank said.

In Venezuela, banking regulator Edgar Hernandez said the government was considering a request for help from Stanford Bank SA in Caracas after a $26.5 million run on deposits removed about 12 percent of its holdings.

"We suggested an open intervention" by the government, including the possibility of the government or a state-run bank depositing funds to back deposits, Hugo Faria, one of the bank's directors, told The Associated Press.

In Mexico, where the Stanford Fondos unit manages about $50 million for some 3,400 clients, a note posted on a shuttered office door in the capital's wealthy Polanco neighborhood announced that all accounts "are temporarily frozen."

"We don't have any other information at this time, you will be contacted in the future with more details," the note said.

Karina Klinckwort, 38, had rushed to the office Wednesday: "Everything I have is with them, everything that my husband, may he rest in peace, invested is with them."

The Stanford-controlled Bank of Antigua was not named in the complaint, but many Antiguans lined up outside nevertheless to try to get their money. Some of these working-class depositors clutched portable radios to listen to financial news.

"People have to come to get their money," said electrician Rasta Kente.

But panicking will only make things worse, regional regulators warned.

"If individuals persist in rushing to the bank in a panic they will precipitate the very situation that we are all trying to avoid," said K. Dwight Venner, governor of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank.

___

Associated Press Writers Anika Kentish in St. John's, Antigua; Jim Abrams in Washington, D.C.; Jeff Kummer in Dallas; Frank Bajak in Bogota; Jeanneth Valdivieso in Olga Rodriguez in Mexico City; and Fabiola Sanchez in Caracas, Venezuela contributed to this report.

--
http://www.betaggarcian.blogspot.com/

Fwd: Macroperu FMI Opus: GDP en Ukrania desiende en enero 20 por ciento.

Ukraine GDP Down 20% Year on Year In January

Well, Paul Krugman certainly got it right on this one, the Great Depression may now reasonably be considered to have arrived in Ukraine. Ukraine's GDP declined 20 percent in January year-on-year, according to Valeriy Lytvytsky chief advisor to the chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine. "The decline in GDP in January was about 20 percent according to my reckoning. It's the biggest drop ever. It's a bad start," he said. According to Lytvytsky the construction and industry sectors have been the hardest hit by the economic crisis. The Statistics Office don't produce detailed information on the month by month movements in GDP, but using the raw data they do provide I have calculated the monthly growth rates, and have produced the chart below, which gives a pretty clear idea of what has been happening.

Industrial output fell in January for the sixth month in a row, with a 16.1 percent decline between January and December 2008. This was the biggest decrease since January 1994, when there was an 18.6 percent drop. Industrial production in January was 34.1 percent down on January 2008. The year-on-year decline in construction also increased ten-fold, hitting 57.6 percent, Lytvytsky said.

"At the start of last year there was one sector in recession - construction. All the rest were in positive territory. Now only one economic sector is growing - agriculture - with growth of 0.5 percent, within the margin of error. All the other basic industries, which account for about 80 percent of GDP, are contracting." Valeriy Lytvytsky

Unfortunately this may well be the last month for which I can do this kind of calculation and comparison, since the State Statistics Committee will not be publishing monthly GDP results (as in the past), starting this January and (ironically) as a result of the move to harmonise Ukraine methodology with international-standard, quarterly reporting. I say ironically, since in this case we will be trading short term insight for longer term precision. However, the office will continue publishing monthly results for individual economic sectors like agriculture, industry, construction and transportation, so we maywell be able to invent some kind of "proxy", just to keep an eye on what is happening in more or less real time.m

GREENSPAN: nacionalisation banque

Greenspan backs bank nationalisation

By Krishna Guha and Edward Luce in Washington

Published: February 18 2009 00:06 | Last updated: February 18 2009 00:06

The US government may have to nationalise some banks on a temporary
basis to fix the financial system and restore the flow of credit, Alan
Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, has told the Financial
Times.

In an interview, Mr Greenspan, who for decades was regarded as the high
priest of laisser-faire capitalism, said nationalisation could be the
least bad option left for policymakers.

PBI de Taiwan desciende en el IV trimestre 8 por ciento.

Taiwan falls into recession

By Robin Kwong in Taipei

Published: February 18 2009 09:24 Last updated: February 18 2009 19:23

Taiwan has tumbled into recession, suffering a record annual fall in output at the end of last year to become east Asia's worst-performing economy.

Official data yon Wednesday showed Taiwan's gross domestic product shrank 8.36 per cent year-on-year in the last quarter of 2008, a bigger drop than analysts had expected and that underscored the exposure of Asian exporters to the slump in world demand.

EDITOR'S CHOICE

Taiwan falls victim to exporters' success - Feb-18

Lex: Taiwan - Feb-18

Asia's jobless may hit 23.3m in 2009 - Feb-18

Japan suffers worst economic fall in 35 years - Feb-17

China's financial alchemy fails to hide risk - Feb-17

China urges west to establish 'bad banks' - Feb-17

The figures spurred the Taiwanese central bank to make an unexpected 0.25 percentage point cut in interest rates, bringing its key interest rate to a record low of 1.25 per cent. The economy has contracted for two straight quarters, meeting a common definition of recession.

Yen Tzung-ta, the bank's top economist, said that "by cutting rates, we want to send a signal: the central bank will maintain a loose money policy".

Taiwan's woes spell further gloom for other economies in the region, particularly that of China, where Taiwanese manufacturers have shifted much of their output in recent years and where many of the island's manufactured electronics parts are shipped for final assembly before being sold to consumers in the west.

According to the International Labour Organisation, Asia will see the number of jobless people rise by up to 23.3m in 2009, three times more than the estimate of 7.2m last month as the region reels from the recession in the world's richest countries.

Taiwanese officials said that its economy, Asia's sixth biggest, would deteriorate further throughout the first half of this year. They forecast a contraction of nearly 3 per cent in 2009 after earlier projecting growth of more than 2 per cent.

Exports are expected to drop by a fifth this year, with consumer prices projected to fall sharply too.

"There is little hope of returning to positive economic growth until the fourth quarter of this year," said Tsai Hung-kun, of the national statistics agency.

While suggesting that exports would begin to rebound at the year end, he said the government had underestimated the degree to which exports suffered when it predicted three months ago that the economy would grow by more than 2 per cent this year.

"Taiwan is particularly affected by the global economic climate because of [its] concentration in export products," the central bank said.

The latest figures heap pressure on President Ma Ying-jeou, who was elected on a platform of economic growth last year but whose popularity has fallen.

The government has already announced a T$500bn (US$14.4bn), two-year stimulus package, which includes infrastructure projects, measures to boost employment and hand-outs of T$85bn in consumer vouchers.

Mr Tsai said the government spending would boost GDP by 2.77 per cent this year. But economists doubted the extent to which the measures would help the economy and said Taiwan remained vulnerable to weak global demand.

"[The measures] will help but not significantly because they are not of a big enough scale," said Cheng Cheng-mount, chief economist at Citibank in Taipei. "There is still a lot of room for further government spending, as Taiwan's debt-to-GDP ratio is only around 30 per cent."

__._,_.

.

__,_._,___

--
http://www.betaggarcian.blogspot.com/

EL PBI de Singapur desciende 12,5 por ciento

Singapore's GDP slumps 12.5 percent

(CNN) -- In a further indication of the weakening Asian economy, Singapore on Friday said GDP had declined by 12.5 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2008 and revised downwards its growth estimates for 2009.

Blaming the global economic crisis, Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) warned that the island state's economy would grow no more than 1 percent and could shrink by up to 2 percent in 2009. In November it predicted growth of -1 percent to 2 percent.

"Since November, analysts have shaded down their growth forecast for the US, Europe and Japan by about one percentage point," the ministry said in a statement.

"The growth outlook for the regional economies has also deteriorated, with more economies now expected to register negative or flat growth next year."

In 2008, Singapore's economy grew by an estimated 1.5 percent, falling short of forecasts of 2.5 percent and well down on 2007's 7.7 percent growth.

The ministry said manufacturing would be weighed down by falling demand in developed economies and predicted a sharp slowdown in financial services caused by weak financial markets and credit growth.

All sectors of Singapore's economy dependent on the movement of goods and services in the region would be affected it said.

__._,_.___

Mess

Envío de artículo en ELPAIS.com. Miércoles, 18 de febrero de 2009

artículo enviado Hola gonza (ggarcianunez1.secretworld@blogger.com) ggarcianunez@mail.com (g) le recomienda que lea el siguiente artículo de ELPAIS.com Comentarios: ING pierde 729 millones tras su "peor trimestre en 50 años" El banco confirma sus previsiones de 'números rojos' que había anunciado en enero LEER LA NOTICIA COMPLETA © El País S.L. Prisacom S.A.

[Les Blogs du Monde.fr] : DéCHIFFRAGES

Ce lien vers un blog du Monde.fr vous est envoyé par ggarcianunez@gmail.com Blog : DéCHIFFRAGES Droits de reproduction et de diffusion réservés. © Le Monde 2009. Créez votre blog sur Le Monde.fr

AMERICA LATINA: RECESION DESDE OCTUBRE 08

Economía de América Latina habría entrado en recesión: estudio

miércoles 18 de febrero de 2009 10:43 GYT

Por Julio César Villaverde

RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Golpeada por la crisis global, América Latina habría entrado en una fase de recesión en octubre pasado y su economía está en declive y sin perspectivas de recuperación a corto plazo, señaló un estudio de institutos de Brasil y Alemania divulgado el miércoles.

El Indice del Clima Económico (ICE) de la región cayó de 3,4 a 2,9 puntos entre octubre y enero, el menor nivel de la serie iniciada en 1990, dijo la Fundación Getulio Vargas (FGV), que elabora el indicador junto con el instituto alemán Ifo.

A su vez, el Indice de Expectativas (IE) "registró un nuevo récord histórico negativo bajando de 2,5 a 2,3 puntos", indicó.

Desde la anterior encuesta de octubre, "hubo marcado deterioro de las evaluaciones sobre la situación actual y la relativa estabilización del grado de pesimismo respecto al siguiente semestre", dijo la fundación en una nota.

Para la realización del estudio, que incluye diversos índices, se consultaron a 137 expertos en economía de 16 países.

El Indice de Situación Actual (ISA) se redujo de 4,2 a 3,4 puntos, el nivel más bajo desde octubre del 2002, mientras que el Indice de Expectativas alcanzó un nuevo récord histórico negativo, al caer de 2,5 a 2,3 puntos.

El ICE se mantuvo por segundo trimestre "muy cerca del equivalente mundial, que registró 2,8 puntos en enero", dijo el estudio.

La tendencia recesiva llegó a América Latina y, según la representación gráfica de los diversos índices, la región "habría entrado en una fase de recesión desde el pasado mes de octubre, un trimestre tras la economía mundial", afirmó.

"En enero de 2009, la economía de América Latina se encuentra en fase de declive, sin mostrar, al menos en los resultados agregados para la región, las perspectivas de una recuperación significativa en el corto plazo", indicó.

El Indice de Clima Económico se redujo entre octubre y enero en nueve de las 11 principales economías de la región estudiadas, mientras se estabilizó en niveles bajos históricos en Bolivia (3 puntos) y México, con 2,3 puntos siendo el menor de la serie.

"A excepción de Perú y Uruguay, las economías de otros países de la región estarían en enero del 2009, en períodos caracterizados como recesivos, según los criterios de la encuesta", dijo el estudio.

La evaluación del Indice de la Situación Actual se agravó en el trimestre con mayor fuerza en Brasil, Paraguay y Ecuador.

En Brasil, el ISA se hundió a 4,7 puntos, desde 7,3, todavía cerca del límite de 5 puntos, que define la diferencia entre las evaluaciones positivas y negativas, dijo el estudio.

En Paraguay el ISA se redujo a 3,4, desde 6,1 puntos, y en Ecuador a 2, desde 3,9 unidades, "alcanzando el nivel más bajo desde octubre del 2000 (1 punto)", afirmó.

En tanto, las mejores puntuaciones del ISA las alcanzaron Uruguay y Perú, con 7 y 6,8 puntos, respectivamente, "ambos con tasas de situación actual disminuyendo a un ritmo menos intenso que el promedio de la región", dijo el estudio.

Pero los únicos países que mostraron una mejora en la situación actual fueron México, cuyo ISA subió de 2,3 a 2,5 puntos, y Bolivia, que pasó de 3,7 a 5 puntos.

Sin embargo, "ambos con resultados que deben ser considerados con reservas, ya que hay un continuo empeoramiento de las expectativas, e indican pesimismo en el primer semestre del 2009", indicó la encuesta.

Para los próximos meses, según el Indice de Expectativas, la situación sigue siendo desfavorable y el IE de la región "refleja un mayor grado de pesimismo que la media mundial", añadió.

(Reporte Julio Villaverde; Editado por Inés Guzmán)

LATIN AMERICA EXPORT

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123430877724170335.html#project%3DGROBO09%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive

USA: FRAUDE STANFORD

Washington. (EFE).- Las autoridades estadounidenses han acusado al multimillonario tejano Robert Allen Stanford de operar un entramado de inversión fraudulento, por el cual captó 8.000 millones de dólares con la promesa de una alta rentabilidad.

La Comisión del Mercado de Valores (SEC, en inglés) hizo públicos los cargos al tiempo que agentes de la policía federal tomaba las oficinas de Stanford en Houston (Texas).

La SEC le acusa de engañar a los inversores, a los que vendió títulos a plazo fijo, conocidos como certificados de depósito, con unas tasas de interés "improbables y no justificadas".

Para hacer que las creyeran, el Banco Internacional Stanford, con sede en Antigua, urdió una trama de mentiras, según la SEC. Dijo que había logrado una rentabilidad de dos dígitos durante los últimos 15 años y garantizó a las víctimas que sus depósitos estaban seguros, pues invertía principalmente en instrumentos financieros "líquidos", lo que era falso, de acuerdo con la SEC.

El banco decía contar además con un equipo de más de 20 analistas para vigilar las operaciones y que estaba sujeto a las auditorías anuales de las autoridades de Antigua, lo que también era erróneo, según la SEC.

Cuando los inversores se pusieron nerviosos tras el descubrimiento del fraude presuntamente llevado a cabo por Bernard Madoff, el Banco de Stanford les dijo que no tenía ninguna inversión "directa o indirecta" en sus fondos.

En realidad, el Banco perdió unos 400.000 dólares en la trama de Madoff, según la SEC. "Standford y un pequeño círculo de familiares y amigos con los que dirige sus negocios perpetraron un fraude masivo basado en promesas falsas y datos históricos de rentabilidad inventados para aprovecharse de inversores", afirmó en un comunicado Linda Chatman Thomsen, directora del departamento de investigaciones de la SEC.

Por su parte, Rose Romero, directora regional de la oficina de la agencia en Fort Worth (Texas), remarcó que el fraude tiene una magnitud "sorprendente" y que "ha extendido sus tentáculos por todo el mundo".

A petición de la SEC, el juez Reed O'Connor ordenó congelar los activos de Stanford, así como del director financiero del Banco Internacional Stanford, James Davis, y de la directora de inversión del Grupo Financiero Stanford, Laura Pendergest-Holt.

La agencia gubernamental también alega que hubo fraude en un programa de venta de fondos mutuos llamado Estrategia de Inversión Stanford, controlado por el multimillonario, que alcanzó un volumen de negocio de 1.200 millones de dólares.

Sus directores también se inventaron los datos históricos de su gestión, lo que atrajo suficiente capital para generar 25 millones de dólares en ingresos por tasas entre 2007 y 2008, según la SEC. Se trata del segundo fraude a gran escala destapado en Estados Unidos en poco más de dos meses, después de que en diciembre se revelara el llevado a cabo por Madoff, quien ha confesado que asciende a 50.000 millones de dólares, según la fiscalía.

USA: AUTOMOVIL GM CHRYSLER, 21.6 B a OBAMA

GM y Chrysler piden 21.600 millones de dólares adicionales a Washington para sobrevivir

Las empresas solicitaron más ayudas a cambio de reducir sus operaciones en Estados Unidos

18/02/2009| Actualizada a las 02:55h | Economía

Washington. (EFE).- General Motors y Chrysler presentaron sus planes de reestructuración y solicitaron 21.600 millones de dólares adicionales de ayudas a las autoridades federales a cambio de reducir sus operaciones en Estados Unidos.

MÁS INFORMA

En total, General Motors (GM) y Chrysler dijeron que necesitarán de forma conjunta 21.600 millones adicionales a los 17.400 que Washington ya ha entregado, o se ha comprometido a entregar en las próximas semanas.

GM ha recibido préstamos por valor de 9.400 millones de dólares y en los próximos días recibirá otros 4.000 millones comprometidos por el Gobierno estadounidense en diciembre.

Pero además de esas cantidades, General Motors dijo que podría necesitar hasta 16.600 millones de dólares de aquí al 2011. GM también informó que "durante el curso del próximo año" espera reducir 47.000 puestos de trabajo en todo el mundo, 21.000 de ellos en Estados Unidos.

Además, GM pasará en Estados Unidos de 47 plantas de producción con las que ha empezado 2009 a 33 en el 2012 y 32 en el 2014. Para ese año la capacidad de producción de GM en Estados Unidos se habrá reducido a 2 millones de vehículos anuales, 800.000 menos que ahora.

En términos de empleo, GM prevé que para el 2014 tendrá en Estados Unidos 72.650 trabajadores, frente a los 92.053 con los que terminó 2008. En el resto del mundo, su plantilla de personal de oficinas pasará de 72.875 en 2008 a 63.300 a finales de año.

Las marcas de GM también sufrirán fuertes cambios. Hummer, Saab y Saturn están destinadas a desaparecer.

En el caso de la marca sueca, GM advirtió que si no recibe ayuda del Gobierno sueco, Saab podría declararse en quiebra este mismo mes. De cualquier forma, para principios de 2010, Saab será totalmente independiente de GM.

Saturn también desaparecerá para 2010 si antes no encuentra comprador.

En Estados Unidos se concentrará en sus tres marcas globales más fuertes (Chevrolet, Cadillac y Buick) y en su marca de la gama alta de camionetas (GMC).

En cuanto a modelos, para 2012 la empresa tendrá solo 36, un 25 por ciento menos que hoy en día.

El plan de Chrysler (formada por las marcas Chrysler, Dodge y Jeep) también requiere más ayudas públicas y la eliminación de 3.000 puestos de trabajo.

A los 4.000 millones de dólares que ya ha recibido Chrysler añadió hoy la petición de otros 5.000 millones ante "el declive sin precedentes en el sector del automóvil".

"Ahora estamos proyectando unas ventas anuales de 10,1 millones de unidades (el punto más bajo en 40 años) y unas ventas medias anuales de 10,8 unidades del 2009 al 2012. Para Chrysler esto representa una declive de ventas de aproximadamente 720.000 unidades (una media de 180.000 unidades al año)", añadió la empresa.

Para adaptarse a esta nueva realidad, Chrysler reducirá su producción en 100.000 unidades y venderá activos por valor de 300 millones de dólares entre otras medidas de recorte de gastos.

El plan de reestructuración de Chrysler no incluye la desaparición de ninguna de las marcas de la compañía pero sí la eliminación de tres modelos: PT Cruiser, Aspen y Durango.

Durante una rueda de prensa posterior a la presentación del plan, el presidente y consejero delegado de Chrysler, Robert Nardelli, advirtió de que aunque el plan presentado al Departamento del Tesoro incluye el escenario de la quiebra, esa opción no es deseable.

Nardelli explicó que la quiebra y la desaparición de la compañía costaría a cada contribuyente estadounidense unos 1.200 dólares, un coste mucho mayor que la concesión de los 5.000 millones de dólares de ayudas.

La empresa dijo que "una reestructuración ordenada evitando la quiebra", junto con la terminación de su plan de viabilidad, mejorada con la alianza estratégica con Fiat, "es la mejor opción".

Tras recibir los planes de GM y Chrysler, la Casa Blanca emitió un comunicado en el que dijo que agradece "el esfuerzo que estas compañías y todas las partes interesadas han realizado".

"Es evidente que en el futuro, se requerirá más por parte de todos los involucrados (acreedores, proveedores, concesionarios, trabajadores y ejecutivos) para asegurar la viabilidad de estas compañías", añadió la Casa Blanca.

USA: AUTOMOVIL GM CHRYSLER, 21.6 B a OBAMA

GM y Chrysler piden 21.600 millones de dólares adicionales a Washington para sobrevivir

Las empresas solicitaron más ayudas a cambio de reducir sus operaciones en Estados Unidos

18/02/2009| Actualizada a las 02:55h | Economía

Washington. (EFE).- General Motors y Chrysler presentaron sus planes de reestructuración y solicitaron 21.600 millones de dólares adicionales de ayudas a las autoridades federales a cambio de reducir sus operaciones en Estados Unidos.

MÁS INFORMA

En total, General Motors (GM) y Chrysler dijeron que necesitarán de forma conjunta 21.600 millones adicionales a los 17.400 que Washington ya ha entregado, o se ha comprometido a entregar en las próximas semanas.

GM ha recibido préstamos por valor de 9.400 millones de dólares y en los próximos días recibirá otros 4.000 millones comprometidos por el Gobierno estadounidense en diciembre.

Pero además de esas cantidades, General Motors dijo que podría necesitar hasta 16.600 millones de dólares de aquí al 2011. GM también informó que "durante el curso del próximo año" espera reducir 47.000 puestos de trabajo en todo el mundo, 21.000 de ellos en Estados Unidos.

Además, GM pasará en Estados Unidos de 47 plantas de producción con las que ha empezado 2009 a 33 en el 2012 y 32 en el 2014. Para ese año la capacidad de producción de GM en Estados Unidos se habrá reducido a 2 millones de vehículos anuales, 800.000 menos que ahora.

En términos de empleo, GM prevé que para el 2014 tendrá en Estados Unidos 72.650 trabajadores, frente a los 92.053 con los que terminó 2008. En el resto del mundo, su plantilla de personal de oficinas pasará de 72.875 en 2008 a 63.300 a finales de año.

Las marcas de GM también sufrirán fuertes cambios. Hummer, Saab y Saturn están destinadas a desaparecer.

En el caso de la marca sueca, GM advirtió que si no recibe ayuda del Gobierno sueco, Saab podría declararse en quiebra este mismo mes. De cualquier forma, para principios de 2010, Saab será totalmente independiente de GM.

Saturn también desaparecerá para 2010 si antes no encuentra comprador.

En Estados Unidos se concentrará en sus tres marcas globales más fuertes (Chevrolet, Cadillac y Buick) y en su marca de la gama alta de camionetas (GMC).

En cuanto a modelos, para 2012 la empresa tendrá solo 36, un 25 por ciento menos que hoy en día.

El plan de Chrysler (formada por las marcas Chrysler, Dodge y Jeep) también requiere más ayudas públicas y la eliminación de 3.000 puestos de trabajo.

A los 4.000 millones de dólares que ya ha recibido Chrysler añadió hoy la petición de otros 5.000 millones ante "el declive sin precedentes en el sector del automóvil".

"Ahora estamos proyectando unas ventas anuales de 10,1 millones de unidades (el punto más bajo en 40 años) y unas ventas medias anuales de 10,8 unidades del 2009 al 2012. Para Chrysler esto representa una declive de ventas de aproximadamente 720.000 unidades (una media de 180.000 unidades al año)", añadió la empresa.

Para adaptarse a esta nueva realidad, Chrysler reducirá su producción en 100.000 unidades y venderá activos por valor de 300 millones de dólares entre otras medidas de recorte de gastos.

El plan de reestructuración de Chrysler no incluye la desaparición de ninguna de las marcas de la compañía pero sí la eliminación de tres modelos: PT Cruiser, Aspen y Durango.

Durante una rueda de prensa posterior a la presentación del plan, el presidente y consejero delegado de Chrysler, Robert Nardelli, advirtió de que aunque el plan presentado al Departamento del Tesoro incluye el escenario de la quiebra, esa opción no es deseable.

Nardelli explicó que la quiebra y la desaparición de la compañía costaría a cada contribuyente estadounidense unos 1.200 dólares, un coste mucho mayor que la concesión de los 5.000 millones de dólares de ayudas.

La empresa dijo que "una reestructuración ordenada evitando la quiebra", junto con la terminación de su plan de viabilidad, mejorada con la alianza estratégica con Fiat, "es la mejor opción".

Tras recibir los planes de GM y Chrysler, la Casa Blanca emitió un comunicado en el que dijo que agradece "el esfuerzo que estas compañías y todas las partes interesadas han realizado".

"Es evidente que en el futuro, se requerirá más por parte de todos los involucrados (acreedores, proveedores, concesionarios, trabajadores y ejecutivos) para asegurar la viabilidad de estas compañías", añadió la Casa Blanca.

euro versus dolar

El Euro, golpeado por la aversión al riesgo

LONE_
Analista técnico

18/02/2009 - 11:32

Todo parece estar contra el Euro, la debacle de los mercados que están produciendo un notable incremento de la aversión al riesgo y la consecuente huida hacia monedas refugio, las preocupaciones sobre la economía Europea y la exposición de nuestro sistema económico y financiero a los países del Este, tal y como alertaba en su informe la agencia Moody’s.

Ni tan siquiera un sorprendente buen dato de confianza Zew, fue capaz de mitigar una terrible jornada para el Euro, que perdía su directriz alcista y sus mínimos anuales.
Desde el punto de vista del largo plazo, el cruce EUR/USD tras una fase bajista iniciada en 1.993, encuentra suelo en la zona de los 0,82 $, en el 2.000, iniciando una tendencia alcista que se ve acelerada en el 2.002 y posteriormente en 2.005.

Desde ese nivel, realiza una formación de doble suelo con implicaciones alcistas, que se confirma en una nueva fase alcista canalizada de fuerte pendiente, guiada por una directriz, que se proyecta actualmente en el entorno de 1,415 y que lleva a la serie de precios, hasta alcanzar nuevos máximos históricos en los 1,60.

El alcance de 1,60 produce una figura de agotamiento del tipo doble techo con implicaciones de giro bajista, que se confirma con la perdida de la clavicular en 1,53, forzando una corrección a lo largo de un canal bajista de fuerte pendiente.

En la caída pierde la directriz alcista acelerada a su paso por 1,41 y la media de 200 sesiones tanto en diario como en semanal y mensual y supera el 61,8% de retroceso de toda la subida previa desde el 2.005, empeorando notablemente su aspecto técnico.

En el medio plazo, la presión bajista es elevada, con un intento serio de consolidación, tras la primera perforación de la base del canal bajista y la directriz alcista, en el entorno del 1,40 $. En dicho nivel realiza una figura de vuelta del tipo martillo, que encuentra obstáculos en los 1,49$, resistencia relevante que rechaza los precios con fuerte presión vendedora, dando paso a un nuevo impulso bajista.

El impulso lleva al cruce hasta el soporte en 1,25, donde encuentra apoyo y realiza un movimiento de consolidación entre este soporte y la resistencia de 1,33, que va dando lugar a una formación triangular de tipo rectángulo descendente.

Confirma la ruptura al alza del triangulo por la parte superior con fuerza, dando paso a un fuerte impulso alcista que se ve frenado nuevamente por la resistencia en 1,46.

El alcance de este nivel, da lugar a una figura de vuelta, confirmando la fortaleza de la resistencia en dicha área y que deriva en un movimiento lateral de continuidad bajista, seguido de una nueva onda bajista canalizada por una directriz que se proyecta en 1,26 y que lleva al cruce a retroceder mas del 61,8% fibo de todo el impulso alcista previo, hasta encontrar apoyo en la directriz alcista de corto plazo que parte de los mínimos de noviembre.

En las ultimas sesiones tras el contacto con la directriz, se impulsa para dar forma a un movimiento lateral muy volátil con techo en 1,31 y suelo en 1,27 y ya en la ultima sesión, define el movimiento lateral como de continuidad bajista, perforando con una fuerte vela bajista de cuerpo real, tanto la directriz alcista como el suelo del movimiento, empeorando notablemente su aspecto técnico.

El oscilador estocástico se muestra bajista y por debajo su media entrando ya en zona de sobreventa, mientras que el RSI gira a la baja sin ser capaz de superar la zona neutra, indicando la mayor presión de las fuerzas vendedoras y la continuidad en las caídas.

El oscilador de momento se muestra bajista y cruza a negativo con fuerza, avanzando la continuidad de la tendencia bajista.

En operaciones a corto y medio, siempre que permanezca por debajo de 1.338, la tendencia del cruce será bajista con objetivos en 1,25 y 1,233 mínimos de noviembre. Solo la superación de dicho nivel cambiaria el sesgo con objetivos en 1,38 -1,41. Por el medio hay que vigilar el nivel de 1,31 cuya superación abriría objetivos hacia 1,33.

Dada la dureza de las caídas y los niveles alcanzados no seria extraño ver un pullback hacia resistencias en 1,27 y 1,28, que no cambiaria el sesgo bajista del cruce.

Saludos y feliz trading

ARGENTINA: TIPOCAMBIO 3.52

Subió el dólar, a $ 3,52

> Ir a la nota

lanacion.com | Economía | Mi�rcoles 18 de febrero de 2009

PERU:DESACELERACION EN DICIEMBRE

Economia

El Perú crece pero ya muestra desaceleración

PBI creció 9.84% en el 2008 pero en diciembre expansión fue de 4.9%, la tasa más baja del año.
En el 2008, el Producto Bruto Interno (PBI) creció 9.84%, la cifra más alta en 14 años y una de las tasas más elevadas de América Latina, sin embargo, el país empezó a sentir los efectos de la crisis financiera internacional. Según el Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI), en diciembre la economía creció 4.9%, la tasa más baja del 2008.

Las cifras del INEI muestran que esta desaceleración comenzó en octubre cuando después de alcanzar un crecimiento de 11.5% en setiembre, la tasa bajó a 9.16% en el mes morado. En noviembre la expansión de la producción fue de 6.36%.
“Se está dando una fuerte desaceleración por la caída de los precios de los minerales y el consumo de inversión privada que se verá reflejado en la tasa de desempleo del Perú al finalizar el 2009”, comentó el catedrático de la Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola (Usil), Kurt Burneo.
Por su parte, el catedrático de la Universidad de Lima, Javier Zúñiga, estimó que los sectores que se verán más afectados por esta desaceleración serán construcción y minería.

Construyendo
Según el INEI, la construcción con un avance de 16.46% sigue sosteniendo el crecimiento de la economía. El jefe del INEI, Renán Quispe, afirmó que con el Plan Anticrisis dado por el gobierno, se cumplirá con la meta de crecimiento de 6% en el 2009.
El INEI también informó que en enero, el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) registró una variación de 0.03%, la menor tasa en 24 meses. En diciembre del 2008 la inflación mensual fue de 0.35%, con lo cual llegó en términos anuales a 7.32%.

Desempleo sube en 8.8%
Según el Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI), en el periodo noviembre del 2008 hasta enero del presente año la tasa de desempleo creció 8.8%.“El número de desempleados es uno de cada cien personas y en ese periodo (noviembre – enero) es de 31,000”, indicó el jefe del INEI, Renán Quispe Llanos.
Entre los principales afectados por el desempleo se encuentran los jóvenes entre 14 y 24 años de edad y las personas entre 25 y 44 años.
De acuerdo con las cifras, fue la población masculina la que tuvo mayor índice de personas desempleadas con 18,900, mientras que la femenina llega a los 12,300. Sin embargo, en ese mismo trimestre el ingreso mensual de las personas que trabajan se incrementó en 11.6% con respecto al mismo periodo anterior.