| The untenable irresponsibility of QE in summer 2012 - the US, British and Japanese central banks out of the game |
| As we had shown last January in the GEAB N°61, the US Federal Reserve is facing an unsolvable dilemma from now on, whether or not to launch QE3: «Will the Fed have the means to launch a QE3? The answer is "yes" if one takes only the legal, financial and economic factors into account. The way the Fed works in theory allows it to freely take this kind of decision. But even under the conditions of a "traditional" decision, QE3 will not be a choice made with a glad heart. A new cycle of monetization will only be the product of a US sovereign debt downgrade put under the pressure of the credit rating agencies or investors. Will the banks agree to finance the Fed? Such a question is of little relevance. In an idling financial market, lending funds to the Fed will still be a good deal. Admittedly, interest rates are weak, but the risk is zero. However, if one considers the question from the geopolitical and political angle, the answer is "no". |
| LEAP/E2020 - Exerpt GEAB N°66 (June 2012) |
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| 2012-2013: End of Euroland's consolidation of its budget-finance operations / Launching of the first pro-active common socio-economic policies / Acceleration of the distinction between Euroland-EU |
| By mid-2012, as we have already indicated in preceding GEAB issues, Euroland will be endowed with a whole set of new national leaders (Spain, Italy, Greece, France, Slovenia, Belgium,…) and the following months there will be elections in Germany. Euroland will thus be led by men and women who, for the most part, came to power after the start of the crisis. |
| LEAP/E2020- Excerpt GEAB N°62 (February 2012) |
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| BOK unexpectedly cuts key rate to 3% |
| Korea's central bank cut the key interest rate for the first time in more than three years on Thursday, underscoring its urgency to cushion the bitter impact of the eurozone debt crisis on the local economy. Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov. Kim Choong-soo and his six fellow policymakers lowered the benchmark 7-day repo rate by a quarter percentage point to 3 percent for July. It marked the first rate cut since February 2009. |
| Korea Times |
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| Case for US and Global Recession Right Here, Right Now; Recognizing the Limits of Madness; Permabears? |
| I think the entire global economy is in recession and said so on July 6, 2012 in Plunging New Orders Suggest Global Recession Has Arrived. However, we need to define the term "recession". Contrary to popular myth, recession does not mean two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Rather, two consecutive quarters of economic contraction is a sufficient, but not necessary condition. |
| Mish's |
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| One-on-One with Robert Shiller |
| The One-on-One series continues with Yale Professor Robert Shiller. He predicted the current housing meltdown which is now five years old. If you think we are at the bottom, think again. When asked, "If the current housing crisis was a baseball game, what inning would it be?" Shiller replied, "Maybe we're in the fourth." |
| USA Watchdog |
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| The Political Anticipation Method©: 10 week online training course |
| LEAP/E2020 is re-launching its political anticipation© training courses! Henceforth these will be completely on line and in three languages (German, English and French) to begin with (Spanish will be added to the list shortly thereafter). |
| LEAP/FEFAP |
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| Brazil Industry Continues in Slide |
| Despite a raft of recent stimulus measures, data released last week showed Brazilian industry continuing to perform poorly over recent months, as it reacts to the crisis in Europe and lower global demand for commodity exports. Industrial production shrank in May for the third consecutive month according to data released by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). |
| The Rio Times |
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| Disaster Declared in 26 States as Drought Sears U.S. |
| The declaration makes farmers and ranchers in 1,016 counties -- about a third of those in the entire country -- eligible for low-interest loans to help them weather the drought, wildfires and other disasters, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said today. The USDA is also changing procedures to allow disaster claims to be processed more quickly and reducing the penalty ranchers are assessed for allowing livestock to graze on land set aside for conservation. |
| Bloomberg |
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| Potential Pentagon cuts cloud Farnborough mood |
| The threat of massive cuts to the U.S. Defense Department budget come early January is casting a cloud of uncertainty over the Farnborough International Airshow taking place this week. In a process known as sequestration, automatic cuts of around a half trillion dollar over the next 10 years will hit the Pentagon unless lawmakers and the White House take action. The cuts would be in addition to a roughly $487 billion scaling back of military spending over the next decade that is already under way. |
| Market Watch |
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| Gold the answer to currency wars |
| Hedge fund manager says yellow metal should be an integral part of investor portfolios. Global capital markets specialist and best-selling author James Rickards says that the ongoing currency wars are a combination of deflationary and inflationary factors that could leave painful scars on the global economy. |
| China Daily |
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| PSA supprime 8 000 emplois en France, dont 6 500 nets |
| Le 1er constructeur automobile français, PSA Peugeot Citroën, a provoqué un choc jeudi en annonçant la fin de la production de voitures en 2014 à l'usine d'Aulnay (Seine-Saint-Denis), où travaillent plus de 3 000 salariés, et un plan global de 8 000 suppressions de postes en France. |
| Libération |
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| U.S. moving submersibles to Persian Gulf to oppose Iran |
| The Navy is rushing dozens of unmanned underwater craft to the Persian Gulf to help detect and destroy mines in a major military buildup aimed at preventing Iran from closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz in the event of a crisis, U.S. officials said... |
| Chicago Tribune |
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| 'For Russia, it's about more than just Syria' |
| The conflict in Syria is increasingly putting a strain on relations between Russia and the West. However, experts agree that at the heart of the matter is not just the future of Syria. It's become somewhat of a ritual. If, once in a while, the Russian government does criticize Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Western media and politicians immediately celebrate it as a change of course. |
| Deutsche Welle |
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| San Bernardino Becomes Third California City Seeking Bankruptcy |
| The city council of San Bernardino, California, voted on Tuesday to file for bankruptcy, marking the third time in recent weeks a city in the most populous U.S. state has opted to seek protection from its creditors. The decision by the leaders of San Bernardino, a city of about 210,000 residents approximately 65 miles east of Los Angeles, followed a report by city staff that said the city faced an imminent financial crisis. |
| CNBC |
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| USDA Slashes Corn Outlook; Forecast Sends Prices Surging |
| A scorching drought across the Midwest will slash corn yields by much more than most analysts had expected, the government said in a report that reignited a record rally in grain prices. Field corn plants with wilted and dying leaves stand in a dry field in Idaville, Indiana, U.S. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said the crop will average just 146.0 bushels an acre, down 20 bushels from its June estimate... |
| CNBC |
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| A very promising e-democracy project, particularly adapted for Euroland future democratic challenges! |
| Voxe.org is an international team of young innovators that build online tools that help contextualize, compare and debate political platforms. Their search for country partners.. |
| Voxe.org |
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